Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 14

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-12-08 05:19:19

Editor Note: Make Sure to tune into LIVE Coverage of the FFFC Finals from Las Vegas this Sunday on Grinders Live. Someone is walking away with $1,000,000!

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

I wanted to thank the RotoGrinders community for the mentions last week; they were all greatly appreciated and humbling. Last week’s article was fun to write and a lot of the players mentioned led people to win some cash – which is the most important thing. It’s a whole new ballgame in Week 14 though.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before.

I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage. When looking at salaries on Fanduel this week, I did not see many screaming bargains. That makes it even more important to find players that can meet or exceed value.
Let’s get to it.

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week. All tables are sortable.

Nick Foles – (QB) Eagles vs. DET

Foles is one of my favorite plays this weekend despite his escalating salary across the industry. Outside of Matt Flynn falling on his face on Thanksgiving, opposing passers have had their way against Detroit’s pass defense – especially since opposing teams cannot run the ball against them. Running backs against the Lions average only 64 yards per game and they haven’t given up a rushing touchdown since Week 4. Needless to say, the Eagles are going to come out throwing this week.

Foles has been nothing short of sensational this year. He’s completing 63 percent of his passes with a YPA of 9.1 yards and his aDOT (average depth of throw) is 9.5 yards – the 9th highest mark in the league. And he’s yet to throw an interception (one was called back last week) for a 19:0 TD-INT ratio.

If we throw out the Packers game last week, in the five previous games before that, the Lions pass defense has allowed opposing passers to complete 65.2 percent of their throws for 1,797 yards, 15 touchdowns and just four interceptions. That equates to 359 yards, three touchdowns and less than an interception per game. With key defensive backs Darius Slay and Chris Houston unlikely to play it will force Dwight Bentley and Jonte Green into action. Green has hardly played this season and Bentley has allowed 34 catches for 313 yards and a touchdown in coverage and a QB rating of 99.3.

All of this points to a big day for Foles and his key receivers.

Projection

Josh McCown – (QB) Bears vs. DAL

This is the third time in four weeks that McCown has been a recommendation in this space. I cannot fathom why his salary hasn’t skyrocketed yet, but because he’s still reasonably priced on FanDuel – so he gets the nod again. We know the scoop last week. Alshon Jeffery had a game for the ages with 12 catches for 249 yards and two touchdowns and it was McCown slinging him the football with targets on all levels of the defense. Marc Trestman already had the courtesy to name McCown the starter for us as well, removing any doubt he gets to face the poor Cowboys’ secondary.

Dallas has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68 percent of their passes for an average of 309 yards per week and an 8:4 TD-INT ratio. Those totals include the clunker that Eli Manning had against them in Week 12 for just 174 yards passing. Not to mention that they also gave up 713 yards after the catch, or 46 percent of the total passing yards. That plays right to the Bears’ strengths of a quick strike passing attack that also isn’t afraid to challenge the defense vertically with shot plays.

However, the Cowboys defense, unlike the Lions, struggle against the run. Through 12 weeks, they rank 27th in run defense. So we cannot expect Trestman to go completely pass crazy this week because Matt Forte should find plenty of success on the ground. That could suppress McCown’s value some, but it’s clear he is going to easily hit value and potentially paired with Alshon Jeffery again could produce good results. However, Brandon Marshall and Jeffery rank 6th and 7th in wide receiver salaries this week so the best arbitrage play to get the production of both is to go with McCown.

Projection

Le’Veon Bell – (RB) Steelers vs. MIA

Bell is coming off his best game as a professional against a tough Baltimore defense. He was concussed late on Thanksgiving night that cost him a second touchdown, but before he left he had tallied 73 yards rushing (4.6 YPC) for a touchdown and caught seven passes for 63 yards. Outside of the obvious plays this week (like DeMarco Murray against Chicago); Bell is a sneaky candidate to post a top-10 day if not higher against a Dolphins defense that can be run on.

While the Dolphins boast the ninth best pass defense, they rank 24th against the run. In the last five games, Miami has allowed running backs to total 692 yards (4.7 YPC, 138.4 YPG) and four touchdowns. The fun doesn’t stop there. On top of that, they have allowed 472 of those 692 rushing yards to come after first contact (68%) and 21 missed tackles. For comparison, Bell has 320 of his 528 rushing yardage (60%) after contact and forced 18 missed tackles in nine games. Despite the Steelers’ offensive line issues, Bell will find plenty of rushing lanes.

Bell also played all but six offensive snaps last week. He’s a true three-down running back.

Projection

Shane Vereen – (RB) Patriots vs. CLV

You are probably wondering why Vereen is a good start against the fifth-best run defense in the NFL this season. I will get to that part in a moment. The Browns’ run defense has been as good as advertised. In their last five games, they are allowing 98.8 yards per game to running backs but they are hard fought (3.4 YPC). Just 55 percent of their rushing yardage allowed comes after first contact (Miami was 68% above). The last rushing touchdown they allowed was in Week 7 to Eddie Lacy.

So how does a passing down specialist fit into your lineup this weekend? Easy. There is no chance that the Patriots run right into the teeth of his defense without a sound Stevan Ridley. That means we’ll see a heavy focus on the passing game and Vereen figures prominently into those plans. In four healthy games this year, Vereen has averaged 9.3 targets per game and his developing into one of the premier specialists in the league:

Like Sproles, starting Vereen is like start another wide receiver and the running yardage they obtain is a bonus. Vereen is averaging just over 40 yards per game, though that could be a stretch this week.
Pass catching specialists have had success against Cleveland this year: Gio Bernard (4-41), Jamaal Charles (5-46) and Reggie Bush (5-57-1). Vereen is targeted more frequently than all those players (21% of Brady’s throws last three weeks) and has a sneaky ability to rattle off big plays. He already has four runs of greater than 15 yards – totaling 75 of his 177 rushing yards.

Expect Vereen to see a steady dose of targets and a good bet to break off a long run or catch.

Projection

DeSean Jackson – (WR) Eagles vs. DET

Jackson had a rough Week 13 against the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson which suppressed his value going into a plus matchup against Detroit. He had just three catches for 36 yards on five targets in total, but Peterson shut him down (1-25 on three targets). It was his first poor showing since Week 7 against Dallas when Foles left with a concussion.

Needless to say, Jackson and Foles are ready to get back on track against a Lions secondary that could be missing two key players in Houston and Slay. Here are some notable performances of No. 1 receivers against Detroit in recent weeks:

A few things stick out, vertical players like Brown and Green torched the defense for long gains and that doesn’t include the semi-fluke of a game from Tiquan Underwood (3-108-2). My guess is that Jackson gets behind the defense at least once this week for a big play and is a must-pair if you decide to spend on quarterback with Foles.

Projection

Torrey Smith – (WR) Ravens vs. MIN

As tempting as it was to recommend Joe Flacco this week against Minnesota, I couldn’t do it in good faith so we’ll go with his top target instead. The matchup is ripe for the taking against the Vikings’ 30th ranked pass defense. If you need a quick reminder how bad the Vikings secondary is, just think what Jeffery did to them last week.

In the Vikings’ last six games they have allowed an average of 14.2 catches for 210 yards and 1.3 touchdowns to opposing wideouts. They have struggled with injuries and poor play which bodes well for Smith. Because Smith rarely lines up in the slot, I’ve omitted that data from the prior six games for Minnesota to focus on how they handle outside wide receivers:

Vikings Defenders vs. Outside WR (6 games)

¹ – Cut
² – Injured

Although Smith spends his time equally on the left and right sides of the formation, you can bet he’ll line up primarily on the right to get an ideal matchup against the rookie Xavier Rhodes who is struggling mightily in recent weeks. Smith already has new career highs in receptions and yardage this year and it wouldn’t shock me to see him beat Rhodes deep at least once.

Projection

Julian Edelman – (WR) Patriots vs. CLV

Julian Edelman makes two New England recommendations this week against a tough Cleveland defense that features shutdown corner Joe Haden. Injuries have decimated the New England receiving core again with Aaron Dobson out and Kenbrell Thompkins uncertain to play this week. In the meantime, Edelman has quietly emerged as the top receiver on the team but not in the No. 1 prototype sense. He’s passed Danny Amendola on the depth chart and is the apple of Tom Brady ’s eye with 12 targets last week and an average of 8.3 per game through 12 games.

Because Edelman moves around the formation so much (LWR 20%, Slot 47%, RW 28%, and TE 5%) he won’t see Haden for the entire game, if at all. Joe Haden rarely plays the slot and flips from side to side on the left and right:

Joe Haden Snaps

And here are Haden’s assignments week by week:

Joe Haden Week by Week Assignments

As you can see in recent weeks, Haden is beatable with three touchdowns surrendered in his last five games. Just like Vereen above, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will find a way to get Edelman matched up on Buster Skrine or Chris Owens instead.

In a game that New England could struggle to run the football, Edelman could have a huge day.

Projection

Ladarius Green – (TE) Chargers vs. NYG

Green scored on a 30-yard catch and run on a seam route to be fantasy relevant last weekend and he makes his second straight appearance on this list. His salary did not increase enough to be overpriced yet and the matchup and his opportunity merit mention here.

Last week Green played on all but six plays with the Chargers using a two tight end base offense with Eddie Royal injured. With many noticing, Green has overtaken his teammate Antonio Gates as the seam stretcher with Gates sticking to mostly underneath routes (7.3 aDOT). Since Green’s emergence in Week 11, Gates has just eight catches for 62 yards.

The Giants have allowed Logan Paulsen (3-41-1) and Jason Witten (4-37-2) to post solid fantasy days in the last two weeks which bodes well for Green.

Projection

Jared Cook – (TE) Rams at ARI

Sometimes if something isn’t broken, why fix it? Week after week, the recommendation is to start a tight end against the Cardinals. They apparently have decided they are going to stop trying to cover them all together. Last week, Zach Ertz was a “surprise” breakout with five catches for 68 yards and two touchdowns and Brent Celek was no slouch either (4-29-1). The risky call about Ertz last week was if he was going to play enough snaps to merit starting consideration and he did.

This week, Jared Cook returns to the scene of his Week 1 crime. That is when he tricked us to thinking he was the second-coming of Antonio Gates with seven catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns. In hindsight, his performance was more about the defensive lapses than an impending breakout.

Cook has been more involved the past two weeks (7-129-1) to merit consideration as a punt option. I was more confident in Ertz taking advantage of his opportunity last week because of his quarterback than I am in Cook having a repeat of Week 1.

Regardless, Cook should be in your lineup because of the upside and his relatively low-risk salary.

Projection

Delanie Walker – (TE) Titans at DEN

Walker is questionable to play at Denver because of the concussion he suffered in Week 13. If for some reason he is cleared, he would be my preferred tight end play this week. The Titans will need to throw the ball to keep pace with the Broncos and Denver’s pass defense has allowed three touchdowns in the last three weeks (Fasano 2, Gronkowski 1).

Projection