From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Friday, August 31st
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Will be back one more time for west coast MLB tonight.
MLB
Blue Jays/Marlins 8 Under (-106) 1.05 units to win 2.05
Reds/Cardinals 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2 units
Phillies -125 1.25 units to win 2.25
Tigers/Yankees 8 Under (-127) 1.27 units to win 2.27
Rays +185 1 unit to win 2.85
White Sox +148 1 unit to win 2.48
Angels +170 1 unit to win 2.7
Mariners +120 1 unit to win 2.2
Padres +104 1 unit to win 2.04
CFB
San Diego St +13.5 (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Colorado St +7 (-109) 1.09 units to win 2.09
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9:15 ET FINAL Update
Two west coast dogs both seem to be experiencing reverse line movement, one very significantly. Readers of my pitching article can see that I pointed out that Mike Fiers has an ERA well below his estimators and a K% well above his SwStr% since joining the A’s, while Mike Leake has improved his contact profile in recent months. I already liked Seattle here as a dog and the line is dropping despite the large majority of bets going the opposite way. In San Diego, we have two below average pitchers and below average offenses. I wasn’t really on this one either way, but this line has dropped $25 to $30 despite the public being all over the Rockies.
Mariners +120 1 unit to win 2.2
Padres +104 1 unit to win 2.04
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8:30 ET Update
Adding two college football games. One (San Diego St +13.5) because line movement is opposing public betting. I was hoping to wait out +14 on this game, but not only does that not look to be happening, but the vig increased on the dog from -107 to -112 in the last few minutes. Also, Colorado St bombed and lost outright as a sizable favorite to Hawaii last week. Think there may be some over-reaction and will take the points.
San Diego St +13.5 (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Colorado St +7 (-109) 1.09 units to win 2.09
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7:45 ET Update
I believe both of these dogs are live and despite the public being heavily on both favorites, the line has either not moved or moved slightly the opposite way. I was also slightly interested in the Under for the Sox, but DK/SH has it down at 8.5.
White Sox +148 1 unit to win 2.48
Angels +170 1 unit to win 2.7
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6:45 ET Update
Big update here. Another one still to come ahead of 8pm games. This first one has been in my head as a live dog before even realizing the line has moved slightly downward despite the public being on the big home favorite. Corey Kluber has been good, but not great. Tyler Glasnow has been good. The Rays have been good. The Rays are a very large dog. Was waiting out in hopes I’d get an even larger line. Does not appear to be happening. Good enough.
The total in New York has dropped from 8.5 (-120 on the over) to 8 (-115 on the under) despite public support for over. Jordan ZImmermann hasn’t been absolutely terrible and Luis Severino has showed signs of improvement. Unfortunately, DK/SH has dropped it down to 7.5 and I had to buy up to 8. Feel like Yankees score 4-6 runs with Tigers 0-2.
Tigers/Yankees 8 Under (-127) 1.27 units to win 2.27
Rays +185 1 unit to win 2.85
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5:45 ET Update
I usually don’t do this, but I plan on updating several more times through the eight PM games. There are just so many likable lines tonight. Going to play one more now. Readers of my pitching article know I certainly like Nick Pivetta more than Jose Quintana (who I think I may have even omitted today). Phils started this game as dog and are now up to -125 on DK/SH and rising despite bets seemingly split. Let’s lock this in now. Still have others I want to wait a bit on. Will have one more update in about an hour for 7pm games and then another one for 8pm.
Phillies -125 1.25 units to win 2.25
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5PM ET Update
I’m still watching several large dogs tonight, but another total I want to get down on right away is in St Louis. Weather is good for hitting per the forecast. Austin Gomber has estimators well above his ERA and Homer Bailey is still Homer Bailey.
Reds/Cardinals 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2 units
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4:30 ET Update
Watching a few lines right now, but only ready to act on one. The total in Miami is dropping, currently at eight, despite betting leaning the other way. DK/SH seem a bit slow to respond and I want to act while the vig on the Under is still on the low side. It makes some sense with the Blue Jays down a few bats and the Marlins…well, being the Marlins.
Blue Jays/Marlins 8 Under (-106) 1.05 units to win 2.05
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Yesterday’s recap:
MLB
Angels/Astros 7.5 Under (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02 W +1.02
Rockies/Padres 8 Under (-120) 1.19 units to win 2.19 W +1
Day Total 2-0 +2.02 units
Grand Total 31-31-1 +2.92 units
Sides 15-15 +4.66 units
Totals 17-15-1 +0.65 units
Parlays 1-3 -2.39 units
CFB
NMST/Minnesota 48.5 Over (-108) 1.08 units to win 2.08 W +1
Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
The foray into college football was successful with 45 of the needed 49 points scored in the first half, but just three points in the third quarter gave us a very small sweat in an otherwise easy victory. Although, I wonder if I should even be posting football plays because this article doesn’t appear on weekends and I doubt there’s anywhere near enough interest to have football plays tweeted.
I admitted a probable mistake in not waiting on the total in Houston, but it was still looking great without a score until the Angels put together a four run sixth against Verlander and won by a run even with a two run bottom of the ninth. Fairly easy win in San Diego for the sweep. The run is now up to 13-4.
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You’ll notice I haven’t been playing (or at least listing) a lot of parlays lately. Though they haven’t done too well here, they’ve actually been slightly profitable the few times I’ve played them before or outside this article, but of course, I still wonder if they’re a leak. And if they are, do I even care?
As to the first part of that, like teasers, which I’m just now realizing I haven’t even checked if available, it’s assumed that the book has the edge, an even larger edge than straight bets and the simple justification for that is why the hell would they offer them if not. Let’s assume that’s true and the expected value is worse than playing games straight up or and definitely less than not playing parlays at all. A lot of the time in baseball, I’m using them when there are two large favorites I like and don’t want to lay the heavy juice. I’m too tired, sick and maybe not even smart enough to do the math, but in these cases I’m comfortable sacrificing some upside for lowered risk.
That brings me to the second part of the question, which is: who cares? Yes, round robin parlays and large parlays are probably bad plays, but they’re the GPPs of sports betting. The lottery ticket. The chance to win big money. Nobody thinks they’re going to win, but not everything we do has to be for an expected profit. There’s an entertainment value cost too and that’s fine. Big parlays are fun and to be honest, there were a few I didn’t even post here because I didn’t want them to count as part of this experiment either way or because I threw them together at the last second without time to write them up.
I don’t want the success or failure of this experiment to hinge on the winning or losing of lottery tickets. That’s not the point. The goal of all this is to become a profitable sports bettor from a starting point of modest daily fantasy skills. Hitting a lottery ticket or two or none may just skew the intended results.
So, should I post when I decide to throw some or all of my plays into a big parlay even if I have a negative expected value? Or maybe readers can just assume I did or didn’t and that’s enough.