Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, August 31st
Another five months have flown by and our time together for the 2018 season comes to an end. I want to thank the community for all their kind words throughout the year and it’s been a pleasure to contribute to your daily fantasy experience. I don’t do any kind of record keeping for this, heck, I don’t even like ranking pitchers because it’s really just my own subjective opinion, but I do feel like it’s been a decent season.
It seems major league baseball is throwing a party for my last article, giving us 30 pitchers to choose from. Holding back their top shelf stuff, because maybe I don’t rate that high or maybe they just want me to work a bit. We do have some from the second shelf down though. Maybe a few who used to be top shelf last year or are currently aspiring to move up now.
I want to wish everyone luck with their football seasons, but don’t forget, September can be one of the most profitable times of year for daily fantasy baseball players due to the increase of casuals, who show up for NFL, but may stick around for some MLB. While you won’t see me here again this season, I’ll still be contributing to the site in other capacities (MLB Alerts, DFS to sports betting) at least through the next month or so. Not goodbye, but see you around. (Cue exit music.)
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | -5.6 | 5.19 | 5.2 | 47.5% | 0.90 | 5.25 | 5.78 | Marlins | 78 | 83 | 78 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -8.4 | 5.30 | 5.6 | 45.5% | 1.04 | 5.01 | 5.78 | Royals | 88 | 88 | 154 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -4.6 | 3.90 | 5.5 | 51.9% | 0.91 | 3.30 | 4.03 | Mets | 105 | 81 | 90 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 3.3 | 4.02 | 5.2 | 40.2% | 0.99 | 3.68 | 4.33 | Pirates | 94 | 95 | 93 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | -1.1 | 4.57 | 5.6 | 48.6% | 0.91 | 4.31 | 5.30 | Padres | 90 | 81 | 83 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 2.3 | 4.77 | 5.4 | 35.3% | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.71 | Reds | 93 | 107 | 102 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 4.3 | 4.57 | 5.5 | 54.2% | 1.04 | 4.16 | 2.84 | Orioles | 76 | 92 | 104 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | -5.7 | 4.99 | 4.8 | 32.4% | 0.91 | 5.14 | 4.99 | Rockies | 83 | 77 | 73 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 6.7 | 3.02 | 6.8 | 43.9% | 1.10 | 2.68 | 3.76 | Rays | 95 | 100 | 138 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -0.3 | 4.65 | 5.4 | 33.3% | 0.90 | 4.79 | 5.20 | Blue Jays | 100 | 105 | 127 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 3.6 | 5.18 | 4.2 | 39.2% | 1.14 | 4.03 | 5.24 | Twins | 83 | 96 | 78 |
| Framber Valdez | Astros | -1.2 | 4.09 | 5.0 | 66.7% | 0.89 | 4.09 | Angels | 99 | 84 | 69 | |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -1.8 | 5.04 | 5.2 | 42.7% | 0.93 | 4.65 | 4.33 | Cardinals | 93 | 96 | 103 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | -4.6 | 4.03 | 5.1 | 46.6% | 0.90 | 3.50 | 3.30 | Diamondbacks | 88 | 101 | 53 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.9 | 4.54 | 5.0 | 39.7% | 0.89 | 4.79 | 4.86 | Astros | 105 | 104 | 126 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.6 | 4.00 | 5.6 | 48.1% | 0.99 | 3.98 | 2.31 | Braves | 97 | 95 | 86 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 5.1 | 4.53 | 5.6 | 46.5% | 1.00 | 4.62 | 4.48 | Nationals | 107 | 100 | 103 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 2.6 | 4.81 | 5.3 | 33.5% | 1.03 | 5.10 | 3.77 | Yankees | 122 | 110 | 117 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 8.8 | 4.18 | 5.7 | 43.4% | 0.99 | 4.06 | 5.53 | Phillies | 97 | 86 | 123 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 3.8 | 3.34 | 6.1 | 45.5% | 1.03 | 3.11 | 2.97 | Tigers | 75 | 78 | 74 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | -4.4 | 3.50 | 4.0 | 32.0% | 0.96 | 3.14 | 3.50 | Red Sox | 106 | 117 | 104 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 2.9 | 4.35 | 5.5 | 42.1% | 0.95 | 4.43 | 2.71 | Mariners | 102 | 102 | 94 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | -2.3 | 4.26 | 6.0 | 51.4% | 0.95 | 3.99 | 2.99 | Athletics | 94 | 108 | 104 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 8.2 | 3.82 | 5.6 | 46.0% | 0.96 | 3.75 | 4.01 | White Sox | 96 | 94 | 95 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -8.7 | 3.82 | 5.2 | 44.0% | 0.99 | 3.29 | 4.58 | Cubs | 97 | 103 | 109 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 0.7 | 6.46 | 3.1 | 33.3% | 1.14 | 6.46 | Rangers | 105 | 91 | 58 | |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -4.3 | 4.34 | 6.0 | 45.3% | 1.00 | 4.11 | 4.87 | Brewers | 96 | 96 | 117 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | -0.1 | 4.42 | 4.4 | 46.7% | 1.10 | 4.74 | 4.51 | Indians | 113 | 107 | 103 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | -0.2 | 3.58 | 6.2 | 45.6% | 0.90 | 3.38 | 2.81 | Dodgers | 108 | 112 | 141 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | -5.2 | 4.21 | 5.7 | 45.5% | 0.91 | 3.98 | 3.59 | Giants | 100 | 87 | 68 |
Andrew Suarez has thrown at least six shutout innings in two of his last three starts. The peripherals (nine strikeouts, six walks) are not ideal and they are the only two times he’s allowed fewer than three runs in eight starts, but he’s in San Francisco, facing one of the worst offenses vs LHP (Mets 81 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 9.3 HR/FB), though they’ve been somewhat improved recently. It’s really the park and matchup that we’re interested in here because his underlying numbers are below average and he’s not a strong contact manager.
Antonio Senzatela still has just a 10.9 K-BB% on the road since last season with a high of six strikeouts in seven starts this season, but again, we’re concerned with the park boost and matchup (Padres 26 K% vs RHP, 25.2 K-BB% last seven days). He too, is not a very strong contact manager (41.6% 95+ mph aEV is third worst on the board), while not missing bats (16.6 K% as a starter this year). It’s all about the park and matchup.
Corey Kluber had one of his worst starts of the season in Kansas City of all places last time out (5.1 IP – 5 ER). His 24.6 K% this season is a significant drop from last season, but still the sixth best mark on this board. He’s still a quality pitcher and one of just five below a .300 xwOBA (more than one starts) on this board, but he’s in kind of a rough spot at home against the red-hot Rays (138 wRC+ last seven days). This is a scrappy, league average offense with a significant park boost tonight.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has not reached even 90 pitches in an outing since April. He does have a 29.7 K% on the season and 26.9 K% since returning from the DL, though with just a league average SwStr%. He has the best xwOBA on the board (.273) by over 20 points and that number drops to .225 in his five home starts. The Diamondbacks are a better offense vs LHP (101 wRC+ and a split best 26.7 Hard-Soft%), but they have a team 53 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% and 8.0 HR/FB over the last week and find themselves in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight.
Jaime Barria is up above a 20% strikeout rate over the last month and his season 11 SwStr% suggests that’s where he was probably headed too. He still struck out just one Houston batter, allowing four runs in three innings in his last start. He’d previously allowed two runs in 15.2 innings. He doesn’t go very deep into games (no more than 92 pitches in nine straight starts) and this is really more about the matchup than him. Wait, what? He’s facing the Astros (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP). True, but he’s doing so in the most negative run environment in baseball and this is not the same offense they were last season, only marginally above average via wRC+ at home and vs RHP. Some of that is due to injuries, but their top bats have all declined except for Alex Bregman. Perhaps they’re not fully healthy yet (power numbers for Altuve and Correa are way down), but it is what it is at this point and there may be some value in opposing them until they prove healthy and potent again (see Heaney last night).
Jameson Taillon had a stretch during the season where his strikeout rate spiked with addition of a slider. That’s no longer the case, but his strikeout drop over the last month actually comes with a SwStr% boost. In fact, he has eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts. If he can sustain a strikeout rate even a little above average, he’s a useful arm now that he’s pitching deeper into games (at least six innings in six straight and eight of his last nine starts). His .298 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but are not an above average offense against them.
Luis Severino has not completed six innings in three straight starts, but seems to be getting himself back on track (4 ER, 16 K, 46 BF last two starts). He’s faced below average offenses in three of his last four starts, but what are the Tigers tonight (< 80 wRC+, < 10 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP)? They have a team 20.3 K-BB% over the last week as well. A bit concerning that his ground ball rate is now a full 10 points below last season and even below that in each of his last four starts, but the strikeouts are back up and if he can’t succeed against the Tigers, he’s in trouble.
Mike Leake and his 89.5 mph aEV are taking on the Oakland A’s (21.6 K%, 23.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). He must be listed in the wrong place, right? He did give up five runs in Arizona last time out and has just a 15.3 K% on the season. Over his last 13 starts, he has a 50.2 GB% with a league average 32.8 Hard% and has gone at least six innings in 11 of 13 starts. There’s some value in that, while remaining in a negative run environment.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 17 innings and another seven unearned runs with just 12 strikeouts (91 BF). It looks like the Red Sox cut back on his fastball usage and have increased the curveball since joining the team and one wonders why? He was elevating the fastball to occasionally great results in Tampa Bay, though he did have some clunkers. I guess they’re afraid of elevated fastballs with the park shift, but the results have not been good since he’s stopped missing bats. At least he’s in a high upside matchup (White Sox 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP) with a park upgrade tonight.
Nick Pivetta continues to have trouble keeping runs off the board, but also has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (28.2%). The .337 BABIP simply has no basis. In fact, his .306 wOBA and even his .322 actual wOBA against suggest a much better pitcher. The Cubs may be difficult (11.7 K-BB%), but it’s not an overall terrible spot.
Zack Greinke has gotten at least two outs in the sixth inning in all but three starts this season and has recorded a seventh inning out in seven of his last 10. He also has the fifth best strikeout rate on the board (25.3%), a 3.43 SIERA and pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. However, he has to face the Dodgers (112 wRC+, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP, 141 wRC+, 37.1 Hard-Soft% last seven days) and has just a 21.9 K% with a 3.89 SIERA over the last month.
Zack Wheeler has completed seven innings in five of his last seven starts and has the strikeout rate up to 23.6% on the season now. His 84.7 mph aEV is also second best on the board (more than one start), including a .244 xwOBA over the last month. Over his last 15 starts, he has a 24.1 K% with an ERA and FIP well below three. He transitions from one great park to another tonight and the matchup may even be better than the numbers suggest (Giants 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP) with Posey and McCutchen both gone now.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Dan Straily (.264 – 75.2% – 15.0 – 10.2% unearned run rate) has a career .264 BABIP, so that’s not a problem…or is it? His 26 LD% is a career high by more than five points. The Blue Jays lose a DH in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, but this is still a quality offense.
Austin Gomber (.273 – 78% – 6.0 – 16.7% unearned run rate) is a bit below league average in missing bats and despite his 86.3 mph aEV, he has allowed 8.9% Barrels/BBE and is an extreme fly ball pitcher (35.3 GB%), which puts his xwOBA 64 points above actual. He does get the Reds at home, in a great park, but they’re a bit healthier now and have a 107 wRC+ with just an 11.3 K-BB% vs LHP.
Brad Keller (.300 – 77.4% – 7.4) is in a nice spot against the Orioles (18.8 K-BB% on the road, 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP), but has a well below average strikeout rate (16.4%). The caveat is that he’s increased that strikeout rate to 22.7% over the last month and has the highest ground ball rate on the board (54.2%), which allows him a .324 xwOBA despite an 88.3 mph aEV. It’s closer than I expected, but I’m not sure I really believe in the strikeout rate increase yet with no more than five in four straight starts. He’s struck out 14 of 46 White Sox over the last month, 13 of 73 otherwise.
Mike Fiers (.273 – 85.1% – 12.2) is not as good as his current run for the A’s and the Mariners have just a 20.1 K% vs RHP. He has a 100% strand rate in three of his four starts since the trade. Yes, the strikeout rate has increased, but the SwStr% (though increased as well), does not nearly support a 30.2 K% over the last month.
Jhoulys Chacin (.261 – 73.2% – 9.0) doesn’t have the greatest BABIP profile, but isn’t too far from his defense. We can let the BABIP go. He does have a .281 career rate and pitched most of his career in Colorado. I still don’t want to pay anywhere near $8K for him in Washington.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Glasnow has a 25.3 K-BB% for the Rays this month with a 3.06 SIERA that’s much better than his actual ERA, but also a .330 xwOBA that’s a bit higher than his season mark. He has some control issues and his 89 mph aEV is not ideal, especially with the park downgrade and difficult matchup in Cleveland. The one pitcher we’d really like to see in a decent spot appears to be one of the few in a really bad park adjusted matchup, maybe the worst on this board.
Anibal Sanchez has been having hamstring issues and has not seen a double digit SwStr% in five August starts (above 8% just once). Let’s be conservative here against a contact prone offense (Pirates 19.8 K% vs RHP).
Michael Kopech has struck out eight of 36 batters without a walk most surprisingly after a 31.3 K% and 11.1 BB% at AAA this season. I’d like to watch this game, but am not paying $9.2K for him against the Red Sox (split best 18.7 K% vs RHP). On FanDuel, $7.6K almost has me interested.
Homer Bailey gets a significant park upgrade and costs just $4.5K on DraftKings. Those are the only reasons he finds himself this high on the list.
Framber Valdez was projected as a bullpen arm and just the 25th ranked prospect in the system with a mere 40 Future Value grade by Fangraphs this season, but was also featured as a fringe prospect in their pages earlier this month after leading all minor league pitchers with a 43.2 K% over a one month span. He’s worked both as a starter (14) and reliever (8) at AA and AAA this season, striking out more than a quarter of batters faced. He’s struck out just seven of 39 major league batters so far with just four walks and his only major league starts came against the same Angels he’s facing tonight. It is technically a park upgrade for the rematch, but it’s an offense now at full strength with Upton back and Pujols gone that has just a 20.8 K% vs LHP.
Jordan Zimmermann is in one of the worst spots on the board.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 13.1% | Season | 18.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 11.6% | Road | 14.8% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 14.2% | L14Days | 8.7% | 8.7% | 15.8% | |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 14.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 12.5% | Season | 15.8% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | Road | 13.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | L14Days | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 17.4% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 6.5% | 18.0% | 23.8% | Season | 20.6% | 6.5% | 18.0% | 23.8% | Home | 21.9% | 5.5% | 18.8% | 26.9% | L14Days | 19.5% | 12.2% | 33.3% | 32.1% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 6.6% | 16.8% | 14.5% | Season | 23.8% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 4.9% | Home | 23.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 14.9% | L14Days | 20.0% | 8.0% | 15.4% | -2.8% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 13.7% | Season | 16.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 20.0% | Road | 19.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | L14Days | 11.1% | 6.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 17.8% | Season | 20.5% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 17.8% | Home | 21.1% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 11.8% | L14Days | 21.3% | 10.6% | 16.2% | |
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 14.8% | Season | 16.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 14.8% | Home | 17.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 21.8% | L14Days | 23.3% | 2.3% | 25.0% | 6.2% |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | L2 Yrs | 15.1% | 6.5% | 22.2% | 26.4% | Season | 15.1% | 6.5% | 22.2% | 26.4% | Home | 12.8% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 29.7% | L14Days | 19.6% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 22.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 29.7% | 4.5% | 13.5% | 12.4% | Season | 24.6% | 3.6% | 13.4% | 20.6% | Home | 31.6% | 4.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | L14Days | 22.6% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 23.6% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 20.4% | Season | 19.3% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 30.4% | Home | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 21.1% | L14Days | 12.5% | 2.1% | 10.5% | 30.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 17.5% | Season | 16.2% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 18.7% | Home | 22.2% | 11.1% | 25.0% | 21.4% | L14Days | 18.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Framber Valdez | Astros | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 10.3% | -8.0% | Season | 18.0% | 10.3% | -8.0% | Home | L14Days | 18.0% | 10.3% | -8.0% | |||||||
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 15.4% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 21.1% | Season | 14.8% | 6.7% | 18.1% | 26.8% | Road | 16.0% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 18.8% | L14Days | 13.7% | 2.0% | 23.1% | -2.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 7.9% | 17.3% | 17.5% | Season | 29.7% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 17.3% | Home | 25.0% | 6.8% | 18.2% | 15.2% | L14Days | 26.1% | 4.4% | 20.0% | 15.6% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 21.2% | Season | 18.4% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 21.2% | Road | 18.7% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 13.6% | L14Days | 17.1% | 8.6% | 3.9% | |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | Season | 22.1% | 6.2% | 11.5% | 11.2% | Road | 20.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 14.8% | L14Days | 34.0% | 6.4% | 50.0% | 7.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.6% | Season | 19.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 19.6% | Road | 18.3% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 13.6% | L14Days | 19.2% | 7.7% | 21.6% | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 23.6% | Season | 20.6% | 4.0% | 13.1% | 19.3% | Road | 16.3% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 20.9% | L14Days | 19.2% | 1.9% | 15.4% | 32.5% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 14.9% | Season | 20.0% | 10.3% | 14.9% | 18.1% | Road | 22.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 22.8% | L14Days | 13.6% | 11.4% | -3.0% | |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.5% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 10.9% | Season | 28.2% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 13.5% | Home | 29.4% | 6.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% | L14Days | 34.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 15.4% |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 32.0% | Season | 22.2% | 32.0% | Home | 40.0% | L14Days | 22.2% | 32.0% | |||||||||
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 15.2% | Season | 19.5% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 21.1% | Home | 21.1% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 20.1% | L14Days | 32.6% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 4.7% | 12.5% | 16.8% | Season | 15.3% | 4.7% | 12.0% | 19.1% | Road | 15.9% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 21.1% | L14Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 3.3% | 13.0% | 14.8% | Season | 20.3% | 3.3% | 13.0% | 14.8% | Road | 19.1% | 3.6% | 16.1% | 13.2% | L14Days | 14.6% | 2.1% | 8.3% | 15.0% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 26.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 18.4% | Season | 28.2% | 6.6% | 15.4% | 17.4% | Home | 29.5% | 6.3% | 17.4% | 15.2% | L14Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | L2 Yrs | 13.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 37.5% | Season | 13.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 37.5% | Road | L14Days | 13.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 37.5% | ||||
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | Season | 20.1% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 9.1% | Home | 21.8% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 6.0% | L14Days | 15.8% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 11.1% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 12.4% | Season | 31.1% | 12.9% | 14.5% | 14.0% | Road | 23.2% | 14.4% | 18.6% | 9.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 10.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 5.8% | 14.6% | 19.5% | Season | 25.3% | 5.0% | 15.0% | 24.2% | Road | 24.6% | 5.0% | 17.0% | 12.9% | L14Days | 25.5% | 5.9% | 14.3% | 31.4% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 6.6% | Season | 23.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 1.8% | Road | 22.5% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 8.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 21.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 16.0% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 15.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 9.8% |
| Royals | Home | 20.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 26.0% | RH | 20.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 21.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.7% | 19.2% | 38.4% |
| Mets | Road | 21.6% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 18.5% | LH | 24.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 14.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 6.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 19.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 21.8% |
| Padres | Home | 25.3% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 18.0% | RH | 26.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 16.6% | L7Days | 29.4% | 4.2% | 15.7% | 17.2% |
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 15.3% | LH | 20.8% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 20.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 9.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.4% | 6.6% | 12.2% | 14.1% | RH | 23.7% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 13.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.1% | 12.3% | 11.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 8.2% | 14.4% | 17.8% | RH | 23.5% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 16.7% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 22.3% |
| Rays | Road | 22.8% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 16.1% | RH | 22.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 16.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 20.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 17.5% | RH | 22.6% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 16.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.6% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| Twins | Road | 22.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 16.2% | RH | 21.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 21.2% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.3% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Road | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 17.7% | LH | 20.8% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 18.1% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 15.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 25.1% | RH | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 20.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 5.4% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 18.5% | LH | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 26.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 25.6% |
| Astros | Home | 20.1% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 10.1% | RH | 20.0% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 15.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 20.9% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 19.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 18.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.8% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 12.1% | RH | 20.1% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 13.1% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 12.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.4% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 21.2% | RH | 22.5% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 17.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 18.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.5% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 7.7% | LH | 23.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.2% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 13.4% | RH | 22.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 18.8% | L7Days | 24.8% | 4.5% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.7% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 19.4% | RH | 18.7% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 19.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 23.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 19.4% | RH | 20.1% | 6.5% | 13.5% | 15.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 24.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 21.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 25.6% | RH | 21.6% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 23.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.5% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 6.4% | RH | 25.5% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 22.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 15.6% | RH | 21.0% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 13.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.3% | 18.5% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.9% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 23.1% | LH | 23.2% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 16.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 16.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 13.9% | RH | 25.1% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 18.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.4% | 23.6% | 22.1% |
| Indians | Home | 18.1% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 25.2% | RH | 18.9% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 24.7% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 20.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 24.0% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 19.8% | RH | 22.5% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 19.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 37.1% |
| Giants | Home | 21.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 20.5% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 28.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 18.1% | 10.0% | 1.81 | 8.7% | 8.1% | 1.07 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 15.8% | 7.0% | 2.26 | 9.4% | 7.6% | 1.24 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 20.6% | 7.1% | 2.90 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 2.70 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.53 | 25.0% | 7.6% | 3.29 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 16.8% | 6.8% | 2.47 | 14.1% | 5.6% | 2.52 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.18 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 2.61 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.95 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 2.29 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 15.1% | 7.8% | 1.94 | 15.1% | 7.8% | 1.94 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 24.6% | 10.9% | 2.26 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.57 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 19.3% | 9.9% | 1.95 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.19 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 | 11.8% | 7.1% | 1.66 |
| Framber Valdez | Astros | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 14.8% | 8.4% | 1.76 | 15.6% | 8.6% | 1.81 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 29.7% | 10.5% | 2.83 | 26.9% | 9.7% | 2.77 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 18.4% | 11.0% | 1.67 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 1.82 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 22.1% | 10.6% | 2.08 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 1.53 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 19.6% | 8.5% | 2.31 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 2.81 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 20.6% | 9.5% | 2.17 | 16.0% | 8.4% | 1.90 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 20.0% | 7.5% | 2.67 | 18.3% | 6.5% | 2.82 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 28.2% | 12.2% | 2.31 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 2.36 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | 22.2% | 10.9% | 2.04 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 2.04 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.22 | 30.2% | 10.8% | 2.80 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 15.3% | 7.7% | 1.99 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 2.52 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.93 | 13.7% | 9.9% | 1.38 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 28.2% | 11.7% | 2.41 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 2.53 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.01 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.01 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 20.1% | 8.8% | 2.28 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.16 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 31.1% | 11.8% | 2.64 | 35.2% | 12.7% | 2.77 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 25.3% | 10.9% | 2.32 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 2.31 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.11 | 26.4% | 12.3% | 2.15 |
Andrew Suarez has seen his strikeout rate drop throughout the season and it could go even further. He actually had a double digit SwStr% in his last start (10.4% vs Texas) for just the second time this season last time out.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has just nine starts, so we’re still dealing with a small sample size and did have a 14 SwStr% in his last start after three straight in double digits, preceded by four straight above 11%. There’s nothing very stable here to go off of is the point I guess. We can see he had a similar SwStr% last season with a 21.4 K% and a career 2.35 K/SwStr, so we’d expect some regression regardless.
Jaime Barria has, by far, the lowest K/SwStr on the board. The interesting thing is that he’s had a double digit SwStr% in half of his 20 starts. There was a five start stretch in his first seven. Then there’s been a three start stretch he just snapped in his last outing. It seems to be a bit streaky.
Jameson Taillon has a 13% and 19 SwStr% in his last two starts, each with eight strikeouts against the Brewers, but also the Cubs.
Nathan Eovaldi still has a 9.9 SwStr% over the last month, which is near his season rate, but I don’t think the Red Sox are optimally using him.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 4.95 | 5.09 | 0.14 | 4.95 | 0.06 | 4.65 | -0.30 | 5.88 | 0.93 | 13.50 | 5.78 | -7.72 | 5.72 | -7.78 | 3.66 | -9.84 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.79 | 5.13 | 0.34 | 4.79 | 0.18 | 4.85 | 0.06 | 6.34 | 1.55 | 6.59 | 5.90 | -0.69 | 5.81 | -0.78 | 5.04 | -1.55 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 4.42 | 3.90 | -0.52 | 4.42 | -0.83 | 4.13 | -0.29 | 3.53 | -0.89 | 5.61 | 4.32 | -1.29 | 3.91 | -1.70 | 5.22 | -0.39 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 3.05 | 3.90 | 0.85 | 3.05 | 0.82 | 3.87 | 0.82 | 2.73 | -0.32 | 3.20 | 3.51 | 0.31 | 3.23 | 0.03 | 3.59 | 0.39 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 5.24 | 4.61 | -0.63 | 5.24 | -0.60 | 4.04 | -1.20 | 5.05 | -0.19 | 5.87 | 5.15 | -0.72 | 5.29 | -0.58 | 4.72 | -1.15 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 2.79 | 4.77 | 1.98 | 2.79 | 2.08 | 3.97 | 1.18 | 5.97 | 3.18 | 2.33 | 4.72 | 2.39 | 4.85 | 2.52 | 3.49 | 1.16 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 3.33 | 4.57 | 1.24 | 3.33 | 0.96 | 3.76 | 0.43 | 5.46 | 2.13 | 3.07 | 3.94 | 0.87 | 3.76 | 0.69 | 3.57 | 0.50 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 7.58 | 4.99 | -2.59 | 7.58 | -2.44 | 6.90 | -0.68 | 6.69 | -0.89 | 7.58 | 4.99 | -2.59 | 5.14 | -2.44 | 6.90 | -0.68 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.91 | 3.35 | 0.44 | 2.91 | 0.29 | 3.29 | 0.38 | 2.72 | -0.19 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 0.05 | 3.15 | -0.23 | 2.61 | -0.77 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.35 | 4.96 | 0.61 | 4.35 | 0.65 | 5.34 | 0.99 | 5.22 | 0.87 | 5.26 | 4.92 | -0.34 | 5.4 | 0.14 | 5.11 | -0.15 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 6.52 | 5.52 | -1.00 | 6.52 | -0.92 | 6.37 | -0.15 | 6.74 | 0.22 | 8.83 | 6.47 | -2.36 | 6.56 | -2.27 | 7.08 | -1.75 |
| Framber Valdez | Astros | 0.96 | 4.09 | 3.13 | 0.96 | 3.66 | 3.91 | 2.95 | 6.33 | 5.37 | 0.96 | 4.09 | 3.13 | 4.62 | 3.66 | 3.91 | 2.95 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.17 | 4.90 | -1.27 | 6.17 | -1.40 | 5.62 | -0.55 | 6.11 | -0.06 | 5.86 | 4.30 | -1.56 | 4.11 | -1.75 | 5.07 | -0.79 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 2.18 | 3.11 | 0.93 | 2.18 | 0.84 | 3.07 | 0.89 | 2.60 | 0.42 | 2.30 | 3.11 | 0.81 | 3.04 | 0.74 | 2.90 | 0.60 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.67 | 4.54 | 0.87 | 3.67 | 0.97 | 4.58 | 0.91 | 5.12 | 1.45 | 3.42 | 4.31 | 0.89 | 4.37 | 0.95 | 2.82 | -0.60 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 3.49 | 3.81 | 0.32 | 3.49 | 0.10 | 3.46 | -0.03 | 3.37 | -0.12 | 2.67 | 4.08 | 1.41 | 3.71 | 1.04 | 3.54 | 0.87 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.61 | 4.57 | 0.96 | 3.61 | 0.87 | 4.01 | 0.40 | 4.63 | 1.02 | 4.30 | 4.41 | 0.11 | 4.41 | 0.11 | 4.49 | 0.19 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 4.38 | 4.05 | -0.33 | 4.38 | -0.18 | 4.27 | -0.11 | 3.90 | -0.48 | 4.25 | 4.45 | 0.20 | 4.59 | 0.34 | 4.88 | 0.63 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 4.33 | 4.70 | 0.37 | 4.33 | 0.13 | 4.74 | 0.41 | 5.24 | 0.91 | 4.61 | 4.43 | -0.18 | 4.24 | -0.37 | 4.99 | 0.38 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 3.27 | 3.29 | 0.02 | 3.27 | -0.11 | 3.10 | -0.17 | 2.87 | -0.40 | 4.94 | 3.57 | -1.37 | 3.39 | -1.55 | 4.07 | -0.87 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | 1.13 | 3.50 | 2.37 | 1.13 | 3.22 | 2.28 | 1.15 | 3.59 | 2.46 | 1.13 | 3.50 | 2.37 | 4.35 | 3.22 | 2.28 | 1.15 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 3.15 | 4.22 | 1.07 | 3.15 | 1.31 | 4.38 | 1.23 | 4.40 | 1.25 | 1.38 | 2.67 | 1.29 | 2.66 | 1.28 | 2.89 | 1.51 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.03 | 4.38 | 0.35 | 4.03 | 0.14 | 4.08 | 0.05 | 4.18 | 0.15 | 3.58 | 3.67 | 0.09 | 3.52 | -0.06 | 3.10 | -0.48 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 4.15 | 3.82 | -0.33 | 4.15 | -0.36 | 3.83 | -0.32 | 3.47 | -0.68 | 5.04 | 4.57 | -0.47 | 4.41 | -0.63 | 3.40 | -1.64 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.76 | 3.33 | -1.43 | 4.76 | -1.48 | 3.61 | -1.15 | 3.03 | -1.73 | 4.45 | 3.54 | -0.91 | 3.39 | -1.06 | 3.65 | -0.80 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 11.37 | 6.45 | -4.92 | 11.37 | -4.65 | 6.95 | -4.42 | 8.54 | -2.83 | 11.37 | 6.46 | -4.91 | 6.72 | -4.65 | 6.95 | -4.42 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 3.95 | 4.32 | 0.37 | 3.95 | 0.40 | 4.04 | 0.09 | 4.82 | 0.87 | 1.96 | 4.25 | 2.29 | 4.32 | 2.36 | 3.27 | 1.31 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 4.18 | 3.51 | -0.67 | 4.18 | -0.83 | 3.51 | -0.67 | 3.06 | -1.12 | 3.80 | 3.06 | -0.74 | 3.06 | -0.74 | 3.24 | -0.56 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 2.93 | 3.43 | 0.50 | 2.93 | 0.38 | 3.58 | 0.65 | 2.64 | -0.29 | 2.81 | 3.89 | 1.08 | 3.64 | 0.83 | 4.38 | 1.57 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 3.46 | 3.96 | 0.50 | 3.46 | 0.38 | 3.32 | -0.14 | 3.04 | -0.42 | 1.09 | 3.41 | 2.32 | 3.26 | 2.17 | 2.40 | 1.31 |
Andrew Suarez has a .316 BABIP (not far out of line) and 18.0 HR/FB (difficult in San Francisco). The bad news is that a further drop in his strikeout rate would increase his estimators as well.
Antonio Senzatela has a .311 BABIP, 64.9 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB, the last of which we could actually argue might be too low. Considering the amount of hard contact generated, I’m not very optimistic that his ERA is that far off.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a .264 BABIP and 87.5 LOB%. The former is well below his career .303 average, but close enough to his team’s rate this season. His 15 LD% supports the BABIP, but may not necessarily be sustainable. The strand rate is a massive regression candidate.
Jaime Barria has an 81.3 LOB%. We can sometimes find reasons for sustainability in a BABIP or home run rate a bit further from the league norm, but without an elite strikeout rate, an 80+ LOB% is almost never sustainable and the almost part of that is probably still an exaggeration.
Nick Pivetta has a .337 BABIP and 68.4 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his .team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.310 | 0.307 | -0.003 | 49.6% | 19.0% | 8.6% | 84.0% | 38.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.313 | 0.306 | -0.007 | 42.6% | 22.3% | 10.1% | 91.1% | 38.6% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.294 | 0.316 | 0.022 | 51.9% | 21.4% | 6.0% | 90.5% | 35.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.281 | 0.246 | -0.035 | 45.3% | 18.0% | 7.8% | 84.5% | 35.1% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.311 | 0.012 | 45.4% | 21.9% | 11.7% | 88.6% | 43.0% |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 0.287 | 0.273 | -0.014 | 35.3% | 27.1% | 12.0% | 87.2% | 37.8% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.312 | 0.300 | -0.012 | 54.2% | 20.4% | 8.6% | 90.7% | 35.0% |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 0.306 | 0.379 | 0.073 | 32.4% | 27.9% | 3.7% | 91.4% | 43.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.296 | 0.270 | -0.026 | 44.7% | 22.1% | 9.8% | 90.0% | 31.5% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.296 | 0.264 | -0.032 | 33.3% | 26.0% | 12.6% | 87.5% | 39.1% |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.310 | 0.009 | 41.0% | 22.1% | 4.4% | 91.1% | 37.7% |
| Framber Valdez | Astros | 0.284 | 0.160 | -0.124 | 66.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 87.1% | 36.1% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.302 | 0.321 | 0.019 | 40.9% | 24.6% | 7.8% | 91.3% | 38.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.286 | 0.264 | -0.022 | 51.3% | 15.0% | 5.3% | 81.4% | 33.2% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.294 | 0.287 | -0.007 | 39.7% | 20.3% | 13.9% | 84.1% | 35.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.303 | 0.005 | 48.7% | 21.6% | 6.9% | 86.0% | 33.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.281 | 0.261 | -0.020 | 43.1% | 22.0% | 7.1% | 89.3% | 35.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.293 | 0.306 | 0.013 | 34.4% | 22.8% | 10.9% | 89.3% | 33.6% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.284 | 0.279 | -0.005 | 43.1% | 22.7% | 7.5% | 89.5% | 35.4% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 40.9% | 25.2% | 9.5% | 83.1% | 34.2% |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | 0.288 | 0.400 | 0.112 | 32.0% | 28.0% | 10.0% | 88.0% | 42.5% |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 0.273 | 0.273 | 0.000 | 39.8% | 17.2% | 12.2% | 87.3% | 35.4% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.297 | 0.298 | 0.001 | 48.9% | 21.1% | 8.2% | 92.4% | 34.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.291 | -0.001 | 46.0% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 85.9% | 40.5% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.299 | 0.337 | 0.038 | 44.3% | 19.5% | 11.5% | 84.6% | 35.6% |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 0.308 | 0.522 | 0.214 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 28.6% | 87.5% | 49.2% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.288 | 0.289 | 0.001 | 41.8% | 21.2% | 7.6% | 88.6% | 35.4% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 0.277 | 0.298 | 0.021 | 50.5% | 19.6% | 3.6% | 82.2% | 39.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.270 | -0.014 | 44.4% | 22.6% | 10.5% | 83.8% | 26.9% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.302 | 0.296 | -0.006 | 44.3% | 21.5% | 13.3% | 83.9% | 34.5% |
The lack of notes here is because just four pitchers with more than four starts this season are more than 25 points removed from their defense this year at this point in the season. See, this stuff works. Same with the K/SwStr stuff. Just three up there. The wOBA/xwOBA stuff…not as much yet, but most the board. We probably have more to learn there.
Nick Pivetta continues to baffle me, as he simply can not contain his BABIP and there’s not a single thing in his profile that supports it. He allowed line drives at a below average rate and generates popups at an above average one.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.368 | -0.031 | 0.371 | -0.048 | 0.449 | 0.042 | 0.000 | 89.2 | 8.1 | 39.800 | 259 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.357 | -0.007 | 0.380 | 0.005 | 0.331 | 0.003 | -1.700 | 88.6 | 6.3 | 34.100 | 457 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.345 | -0.015 | 0.330 | -0.039 | 0.398 | -0.020 | -1.900 | 88.8 | 7.3 | 38.200 | 382 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.296 | -0.013 | 0.302 | -0.006 | 0.302 | -0.035 | 0.100 | 84.5 | 6.0 | 26.700 | 285 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 0.343 | -0.011 | 0.357 | -0.053 | 0.361 | -0.005 | 0.300 | 89.4 | 4.3 | 41.600 | 185 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 0.367 | -0.064 | 0.380 | -0.103 | 0.340 | -0.028 | 0.600 | 86.3 | 8.9 | 34.100 | 135 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.324 | -0.023 | 0.335 | -0.053 | 0.327 | 0.013 | -0.600 | 88.3 | 5.0 | 32.800 | 323 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 0.403 | 0.048 | 0.382 | 0.039 | 0.403 | 0.048 | 0.400 | 85.9 | 11.1 | 36.100 | 72 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.298 | -0.028 | 0.285 | -0.037 | 0.296 | -0.022 | -0.400 | 87.4 | 6.6 | 33.400 | 500 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.366 | -0.030 | 0.357 | -0.028 | 0.331 | 0.047 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 7.1 | 40.100 | 322 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 0.385 | 0.002 | 0.365 | 0.010 | 0.402 | 0.006 | -1.200 | 88.1 | 8.1 | 34.700 | 124 |
| Framber Valdez | Astros | 0.295 | -0.079 | 0.295 | -0.079 | -1.200 | 81.1 | 0.0 | 12.000 | 25 | ||
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.387 | -0.010 | 0.379 | -0.012 | 0.340 | 0.037 | -0.100 | 88.4 | 8.6 | 41.700 | 348 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.273 | -0.005 | 0.225 | 0.007 | 0.251 | 0.067 | 0.200 | 86.7 | 7.8 | 33.900 | 115 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.346 | -0.019 | 0.354 | -0.009 | 0.303 | 0.027 | -1.200 | 88.8 | 7.5 | 34.200 | 307 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.298 | -0.001 | 0.298 | -0.010 | 0.317 | -0.007 | -0.100 | 87.1 | 4.2 | 32.800 | 448 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.327 | -0.034 | 0.324 | -0.033 | 0.309 | -0.008 | -1.300 | 87.2 | 5.9 | 37.300 | 459 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.324 | 0.009 | 0.334 | 0.015 | 0.350 | 0.036 | -0.300 | 88.6 | 8.7 | 36.000 | 322 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.347 | -0.020 | 0.362 | -0.045 | 0.377 | -0.034 | 0.300 | 88.2 | 6.2 | 37.500 | 403 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.311 | -0.022 | 0.290 | -0.022 | 0.339 | 0.029 | -0.400 | 87.9 | 7.3 | 33.700 | 436 |
| Michael Kopech | White Sox | 0.381 | -0.056 | 0.291 | 0.045 | 0.381 | -0.056 | -0.100 | 91.4 | 4.0 | 44.000 | 25 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 0.340 | -0.030 | 0.356 | -0.054 | 0.324 | -0.059 | -0.800 | 89 | 9.3 | 36.500 | 441 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.360 | -0.041 | 0.347 | -0.031 | 0.308 | -0.010 | -1.800 | 89.5 | 6.6 | 39.800 | 528 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 0.303 | -0.001 | 0.325 | 0.011 | 0.284 | 0.042 | -0.800 | 88 | 6.1 | 35.300 | 278 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.306 | 0.016 | 0.268 | 0.032 | 0.301 | 0.018 | 0.200 | 87.9 | 8.4 | 34.700 | 369 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 0.479 | 0.036 | 0.479 | 0.036 | 1.000 | ||||||
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.324 | -0.017 | 0.323 | 0.003 | 0.252 | -0.005 | -1.100 | 86.8 | 5.1 | 32.600 | 475 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 0.307 | -0.013 | 0.316 | -0.044 | 0.330 | -0.077 | 2.100 | 89 | 8.1 | 36.600 | 186 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.316 | -0.035 | 0.322 | -0.015 | 0.296 | -0.030 | -0.800 | 87.9 | 7.1 | 34.000 | 467 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.299 | -0.015 | 0.304 | -0.031 | 0.244 | -0.009 | 1.000 | 84.7 | 5.1 | 27.400 | 431 |
Antonio Senzatela is the first pitcher we find with an aEV/Barrels mismatch. In these cases, I tend to side with aEV unless the pitcher is an extreme ground ball pitcher. His ground ball rate is average (45.4%).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
One thing to realize on this slate is that there are just four positive run environments on this slate (Texas, Cleveland, Kansas City, New York), while each of the three most negative run environments in baseball are in play (Houston, Miami, Los Angeles). I haven’t looked yet, but would suspect to see team run lines lower than expected considering the talent level on this board.
Value Tier One
I hate to do it to you. I absolutely hate to leave you on a full slate, in the last article of the year, without a top tier value, but I just don’t see. I feel like I’m already grading a bit on a curve, but suppose I could bump Zack Wheeler up. That great pitching value just is not there tonight despite the dearth of negative run environments because that great overall pitcher tonight isn’t there either. All of the highest strikeout rate guys have some kind of issues or matchup problems tonight and a three of the four $10K+ guys are around 24-25% for the season.
Value Tier Two
Zack Wheeler (1) is not a very expensive pitcher and he’s probably still worth more than that. He’s turned into, maybe not an Ace, but a strong number two on most teams. He’s in a great park against a diminished and below average offense.
Nick Pivetta is BABIP challenged and in a somewhat difficult spot against the Cubs. However, the peripherals suggest a pitcher who should be priced well above $8K, even in this spot. There’s absolutely no reason his BABIP should be this high.
Nathan Eovaldi has not performed as well for the Red Sox, but is in a high upside spot outside of Fenway and costs a very reasonable $7.4K on FanDuel. Hopefully, he can refine some of that Tampa Bay magic, but I don’t know that the Red Sox are doing him any favors in limiting the fastball if he’s going to continue to elevate it.
Value Tier Three
Zack Greinke (2) is one of the best pitchers on this board in one of the best parks, but he has to face on of the best offenses at a high price and has shown a bit less upside over the last month. He’s also allowed seven HRs over his last seven starts.
Hyun-Jin Ryu might have 90 pitch upside and is probably not as good as either his ERA or strikeout rate, but still may be good enough to have some great value in a decent matchup in a great park for around $8K. The other thing to consider is his reverse split (RHBs 41 points of wOBA lower than LHBs career).
Andrew Suarez is affordably priced under $8K in a great matchup and park, but may really be a below average pitcher.
Antonio Senzatela is facing the Padres in San Diego at a low price and that’s really all there is to it.
Luis Severino (3) has shown some improvement in recent starts and the strikeout rate is back up. The continued fly ball lean is a concern in this park and he’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but in a great matchup, even at Yankee Stadium.
Jameson Taillon is not in a high strikeout upside spot, but is an above average pitcher and isn’t in a bad spot overall.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Leake lacks upside and is in a dangerous spot in Oakland, though not a terrible overall one. He’s greatly improved his contact profile over his last baker’s dozen starts and generally pitches deep into games at an affordable price.
Jaime Barria may be viable because I think the Astros may be a bit over-valued. They are still a good offense and not a high upside one for daily fantasy pitchers, but not a monstrous one and play in the most negative run environment in baseball.
Corey Kluber is probably not a high value guy for $900 more than any other pitcher on FanDuel, but actually costs $1.2K less on DraftKings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.