From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Monday, September 3rd
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Cardinals/Nationals 7.5 Under (-125) 1.25 units to win 2.25
Reds +120 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.20
Cubs/Brewers 8.5 Over (-121) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Brewers +107 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.07
Tigers +108 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.08
Yankees/A’s 8 Under (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14
Yankees +102 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.02
Rangers -122 (SH) 1.22 units to win 2.22
Padres/Diamondbacks 8.5 Under (+102) 1.02 units to win 2.02
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7:55 ET Update
Last minute add on the Padres/Diamondbacks Under. The total is trending down despite a split in the action. Bryan Mitchell has been terrible, but should he get through a few innings, the San Diego bullpen is not.
Padres/Diamondbacks 8.5 Under (+102) 1.02 units to win 2.02
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7:30 ET Update
I have definite interest in one game I want to lock in now because the line is climbing. The starters in Texas have one combined start this season. The bullpens are questionable at best. The Angels have an empty lineup aside from Mike Trout. Texas has the much superior lineup here. There’s some interest with the way the line has moved in Arizona, but I’m not brave enough to put my money behind Bryan Mitchell.
There is a college football game as well tonight. There’s a lot of turnover on both sides (coaching and players) with the number now climbing to 7.5. I’m staying away. Let’s just try to salvage a little something with Texas.
Rangers -122 (SH) 1.22 units to win 2.22
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6:30 ET Update
Only a single 7pm game on the slate and it’s not really of interest. After a brutal afternoon that looks likely to break the winning streak, there may be an attempt to bounce back with a later game or two. One more update coming prior to 8pm.
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3:45 ET Update
C.C. Sabathia is the top contact manager on the board today (84.7 mph aEV) with only 26.7% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. He facing a hard hitting offense, but a beatable one and gets a major park bump today. Both teams have quality bullpens and Trevor Cahill has a 23.1 K% with a 54.4 GB% too. I think this is a low scoring game first, but also believe the Yankees have a small edge in most areas here and like them as the dog as well.
Yankees/A’s 8 Under (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14
Yankees +102 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.02
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1:45 ET Update
Big update for the three 2 PM games. I like the Brewers to finally score some runs on Cole Hamels. They offer five bats above a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year. While Hamels has been lights out since the trade, he hasn’t exactly been facing a murderer’s row. Reverse line movement seems to support the Brewers here as well, though the Cubs have a lineup that could get to Zach Davies too.
The White Sox took two of three from the Red Sox this weekend, but neither lineup is very impressive at all. Michael Fulmer was lit up by the Red Sox in his most recent start, but shut out these White Sox just before that for 4.2 innings in his return from the DL. Line movement seems to support the Tigers as well with the majority of the action on the White Sox, yet a slight decrease in the line.
Cubs/Brewers 8.5 Over (-121) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Brewers +107 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.07
Tigers +108 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.08
So far, Sugar House has had the more favorable line for all three dogs we’ve played today, though totals have been the same. Let’s see if that continues.
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12:45 ET Update
Let’s start our day expecting the premier pitching matchup on the early slate to go under 7.5 runs. Max Scherzer vs Jack Flaherty with the Cardinals even resting a couple of top half of the order regulars (Yadier Molina and Jose Martinez). I also favor the home team in this matchup. The money/line movement favors Scherzer as well, but I’m reluctant to drop -200 on a favorite outside of a parlay, so we’ll just hope for this game to remain low scoring.
This second early one is a surprise to me, but the line for the Reds has dropped significantly, despite a majority of the action on the home team. On paper, it seems the Pirates should be able to handle Matt Harvey and Trevor Williams is a much better contact manager, but the Cincinnati lineup has some middle of the order bats back (Votto, Schebler) and the team just won two in a row in St Louis. Who am I to question reverse line movement, when it’s worked out so well thus far.
Cardinals/Nationals 7.5 Under (-125) 1.25 units to win 2.25
Reds +120 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.20
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Friday’s recap:
MLB
Blue Jays/Marlins 8 Under (-106) 1.05 units to win 2.05 L – 1.05
Reds/Cardinals 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2 units W +1
Phillies -125 1.25 units to win 2.25 W +1
Tigers/Yankees 8 Under (-127) 1.27 units to win 2.27 L – 1.27
Rays +185 1 unit to win 2.85 L -1
White Sox +148 1 unit to win 2.48 – Cashout W +0.61
Angels +170 1 unit to win 2.7 W +1.7
Mariners +120 1 unit to win 2.2 L – 1
Padres +104 1 unit to win 2.04 W +1.04
Day Total 5-4 +1.03 units
Grand Total 36-35-1 +3.95 units
Sides 19-17 +7.01 units
Totals 18-17-1 -0.67 units
Parlays 1-3 -2.39 units
CFB
San Diego St +13.5 (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11 L – 1.11
Colorado St +7 (-109) 1.09 units to win 2.09 L – 1.09
Day Total 0-2 -2.2 units
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Tough for the Rays to win without scoring Friday, but it was a one-run game most the way. It was scoreless at Yankee Stadium until they scored six runs in a span of two innings, three of them on back-to-back-to-back HRs for the home team. An 0-2, two out, pinch hit grand slam is a tough way to lose an under in Miami. Win on a off for the Phillies 2-1 in 10. After nine runs through three innings the Reds and Cards gave us a sweat by not scoring again until the eighth to cover the over. White Sox were looking great behind Michael Kopech in the third (3-0) when the rain came then replaced him with Dylan Covey when it picked back up. The “cashout” option was used to book 0.61 units profit. It turned out to be the wrong move, but it was not the original bet and Covey was not a bet that would have been made either. Angels pick up a 3-0 win as a large dog in Houston. With the two west coast games splitting, the painful loss in Miami seemed to be the difference when adding in the football action.
College Football: two blowouts and not in a good way, although we were actually ahead or within one score with the larger dog most of the way.
For disclosure purposes: MLB action this weekend was 8-5 +5.5 units college football 8-6 +1.5 units, but neither were recorded here before hand, so they won’t count. Suffice to say, it’s been a very nice run with the MLB winning streak here now at four days (six overall). There’s a good chance we’re probably never gonna lose again.
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It’s not that I didn’t remember that holidays mean a full day of baseball starting early, it’s that I hadn’t realized today was a holiday until late enough on Sunday. As a result of all the necessary baseball content and research due much earlier than expected, there really won’t be a prevailing theme to this article as there usually is, but there will be a bunch of updates throughout the afternoon.
Although, there has been one major development over the weekend that should thrill New Jersey players. When Sugar House launched last week, they were mimicking DraftKings’ lines to a tee. Sometime over the weekend that changed. The sites are now offering differing moneylines, which is great for MLB players. Both spreads and totals appear the same, but those differences should only end up being rare and minor anyway. From now on, the better game line at the time the wager is placed will be noted (either DK or SH). Notation only necessary if lines are different.
Updates will be on the way before 1pm.