From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Wednesday, August 22nd
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this. Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates. There could be some day game action today too.
Afternoon:
Reds 3.5 Over (+107) 1 unit to win 2.07 L
Reds/Brewers 9 Over (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11 L
Evening:
Phillies +138 1 unit to win 2.38
Marlins +155 1 unit to win 2.55
Giants/Mets 7.5 Under (-124) 1.19 units to win 2.15
Braves/Pirates 8.5 Under (-120) 1.19 units to win 2.19
Indians -112 1.11 units to win 2.11
Tigers +160 1 unit to win 2.6
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6:45 ET Update
I’ll be heavily rooting for dogs tonight. The Cubs appear to be one of the most popular bets tonight, but they are struggling, as is Jon Lester except for his last start, in which he got away with throwing tons of fastballs to the Pirates. Not that the Tigers are a very competent offense, but the first three batters in the lineup have been very strong against LHP. Despite the heavy action on the Cubs, the line has not increased. Unfortunately, DraftKings has the highest priced favorite as well as the lowest priced dog in this game. Hopefully, competition should be coming and force them to tighten prices. Also playing the Indians with a $5 drop to -112.
Indians -112 1.11 units to win 2.11
Tigers +160 1 unit to win 2.6
No action on the three later games tonight for me. Think we’ve done enough damage.
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5PM ET Update
Just one 7pm lineup outstanding and more going on here than I expected, including a couple of dogs with possible reverse line movement:
- Royals are one of those dogs taking fewer bets, but the line has decreased. Junis is HR prone, but not terrible. The Rays probably should be the favorite here, but perhaps not massively so. However, DK has them at +165, which is lower than I’m seeing them elsewhere. I know I decided not to wait and watch anymore, but I don’t mind missing out on the Royals: Watch
- The same situation for the Marlins. Pitching could be about even here as Lynn is susceptible and a long game last night with Chapman exiting due to injury could lean more in favor of the home team. The Yankees are taking around 3/4 of bets it seems, yet the line has slightly decreased since open. DK has the Yankees jacked up, but the Marlins sitting about where they are everywhere else: Marlins +155
- Really like Syndergaard against a lineup full of bench bats and injured players. Don’t like the Mets lineup to be able to support him: 7.5 Under (-120).
- The Braves and Pirates make contact, but it’s not really strong contact. Neither team is an above average offense against the handedness of pitcher they are facing tonight. Trevor Williams has allowed a total of three runs over his last six starts and his aEV (85.5 mph) is only behind Syndergaard tonight, Both teams are below an 85 wRC+ over the last seven days: 8.5 Under (-120)
- Carlos Carrasco is a far better pitcher than Brian Johnson. The Cleveland lineup has a lot of batters that hit LHP very well. Boston is the more popular team here, taking more bets, yet DK has the highest line I can find on Cleveland at -117: Watching
Marlins +155 1 unit to win 2.55
Giants/Mets 7.5 Under (-124) 1.19 units to win 2.15 – line literally changed right as I confirmed the wager
Braves/Pirates 8.5 Under (-120) 1.19 units to win 2.19
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4PM ET Update
Zach Eflin hasn’t been pitching all that well lately, but he’s a sizable dog (plus 138) to a pitcher who hasn’t pitched anywhere in a month and has just one major league start since the beginning of June. The Nationals also have the only bullpen on the board with a FIP above five over the last month. With this bullpen expected to be active early and Stephen Strasburgh (who has the highest 95+ mph EV on the board) possibly rusty, the Phillies seem to have some value tonight. They’ve also traded away a couple of LHBs they could have used tonight considering the 74 point gap in Eflin’s wOBA split this year. They still have Eaton, Harper and Soto and could do some damage here, but there’s enough going against the Nationals tonight that the Phils are worth a play at this price, which I don’t expect to increase.
Phillies +138 1 unit to win 2.38
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2:15 ET Update
That’s going to be it for the day games. I am seeing some slight reverse line movement on the Rangers and while Mike Minor may be the better pitcher than Edwin Jackson and Jed Lowrie is sitting today, the A’s have more than enough firepower to make life tough for the guy with the highest rate of Barrrels/BBE on the board (12%) and a far better bullpen as well. The price is currently not high enough at +135 for me.
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1 PM Update
Two plays in the game in Milwaukee. Freddy Peralta is a one trick pitcher and that trick hasn’t been fooling any LHBs (over a .400 wOBA since start of July). Robert Stephenson has walked nine of his first 31 batters and giving Brewers free passes is dangerous.
Reds 3.5 Over (+107) 1 unit to win 2.07
Reds/Brewers 9 Over (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
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Tuesday recap:
Orioles/Blue Jays 9 Over (+106) 1 unit to win 2.06 – W +1.06
Reds/Brewers 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2 – W +1
Astros/Mariners 8.5 Under (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11 – W +1
Two team parlay: Diamondbacks -235 & A’s -225 1.5 units to win 3.11 – W +1.61
Day Total 4-0 +4.68
Grand Total 11-11-1 +1.12 units
Sides 4-4 +2.84 units
Totals 8-7-1 -0.36 units
Parlays 1-2 -1.39 units
A clean sweep on Tuesday and not even much of a sweat. Both early totals were over quickly. The Diamondbacks blew a couple of two run leads, but walked it off in the ninth. The A’s and the late under were never really in doubt.
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It seems I learned two important lessons yesterday despite it being the least stressful day I’ve had so far. One definitive and one I’m still thinking about a bit.
First, the DraftKings Sportsbook does not offer any recourse for when a pitcher is scratched, as was the case with Mike Leake last night. Generally, players are offered the option of either having the bet play either way (action) or making sure one or both starting pitchers actually start (listed). This is not among the DraftKings offerings right now, but it worked out this time. I don’t really see any way of avoiding this in the future either other than avoiding questionable pitchers, when we know about them, entirely.
The second lesson was that it might be a mistake to wait for the public to bet the favorite up. It seemed it could have been an even better night had I jumped on plays at the time I liked them and not waited to see what the line did. In every case last night and often since the start of this experiment, the line has moved against my side when waiting. Of course, the two exceptions being the totals I went with right away.
Perhaps the general betting public is not playing a lot of mid-week baseball in August, but I had always thought the sharp move was to wait for the public to bet up the favorites when you like the dog or push up the total when you like the under, especially among the more popular teams. Things haven’t necessarily worked out that way so far…unless I liked a small favorite.
From now on, I think the proper thing to do is if I see a line I like, don’t wait, jump on it there and then. There are still going to be instances where I’m waiting for additional information (lineup, weather, umpire) and that’s something different. Perhaps there’s a pattern I should be looking for in terms of previous line movement or bet percentage to better predict how a line might move, but this is not something that is completely apparent to me yet.