Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Predictions: Friday, April 29th
Alas, the final slate of the month arrives on a Friday. Fortunately, the MLB provides thirteen games tonight for our home run hunt. The hunt for home runs took a step back last slate, when only 19 baseballs left the yard over the course of the entire slate. Hopefully, Friday ends April with some fireworks. Here’s the updated leaderboard.
Jamisonsdad1 vaulted to the top of the leaderboard after picking Anthony Rizzo for his monster three-homer game. When initially scanning picks, I was sure the contest for the month might be over even before today’s slate. Yet, yisman punched right back with two home runs off the bats of Mike Trout and Joey Gallo to keep pace and remained atop the board. The two are joint favorites for the top monthly prize with a couple of our other competitors sitting at four home runs. I suppose anything can happen. Who will take down the April win?
Batter up!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt
Third Place – One week of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Friday, April 29th MLB DFS Slate Notes
This is not necessarily a DFS advice or picks type of column. That said… DraftKings completely messed up the Reds pricing in Coors Field, tonight. If for some reason this article is the first you read today, please do the necessary digging and look through LineupHQ because this is just a big mistake. The decision on how to approach the Reds in tournaments is probably the biggest decision facing anyone playing tonight’s slate.
Where are all the aces? Nestor Cortes checks in as the top-priced arm on the slate away in Kansas City. Tylor Megill comes in second for the Mets at home against Philadelphia. The weather seems to be the biggest defense of offense on the slate as cooler temperatures prevail as we get ready to close out April.
Speaking of the Yankees, the MLB Weather is a must read this evening. At the time of this writing, Kevin Roth projects a storm to miss the game but winds should blow out to left field in Kansas City at 15MPH or more. This feels very appealing given two lefties will pitch in this game. Make sure to check back and listen in to Crunch Time to get any last minute updates.
Anthony Rizzo now leads the MLB in home runs after his monster night on Tuesday with 8 home runs. Jose Ramirez crept up to 6 throughout the week and continues to start the season very strong. Unfortunately, the Guardians travel to Oakland to face Frankie Montas and the Athletics tonight.
The highest non-Coors Field implied total is in Baltimore as the Orioles welcome the Red Sox for a weekend set. The lefties interest me in Camden Yards. Rafael Devers is just priced for our second tier. Very, very interesting.
Friday, April 29th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Aaron Judge – OF – $5,200
I will immediately take advantage of the potential winds in Kansas City and a matchup with lefty Kris Bubic. Judge put together a great series against Baltimore with six hits, two home runs, and five RBI. The Yankees offense started coming together. Riding this wave seems appropriate.
Kris Bubic appeared to keep righties in check last season with a very minuscule FB%. He surrendered more fly balls to lefties. That said, he still surrendered 1.5 HR/9 to righties in 2021. I am not too worried about Bubic.
While I won’t collect any prizes for a win, I still want to win the month. Judge gives us multi-HR upside every game. I need to start here. Judge is +320 to hit a home run on DraftKings.
Promenade – Rafael Devers – 3B – $4,900
In previous articles, we discussed the changes to Camden Yards that impact right-handed bats. Lefties in Baltimore, though… All systems go.
Rafael Devers starts a series against the terrible Orioles pitching staff in a park cut out perfectly for a left-handed power hitter. Devers finished last season with a .331 ISO and 44.4 FB% against right-handed pitching. Kyle Bradish has not pitched in the MLB, yet. At $4,000, though, I suppose he will be a leading target for some stack on tonight’s slate.
At the time of this writing, sports betting sites do not feature prices for home runs in this game.
Bleacher Seats – Joey Votto – 1B – $2,800
We don’t need to spend much time here with the benefits of playing a wildly underpriced Joey Votto in Coors Field. Instead, I will talk about all of the fun I had in the past naming fantasy baseball teams when Joey Votto was one of my early selections.
The first year I drafted Joey Votto in fantasy, my team name was Message in a Votto. Mildly clever, I thought. Votto was a fantasy star back, then. In recent years, Votto frustrates DFS players as he routinely would choke up with two strikes and try to slap the ball the other way.
My second team with Joey Votto was named The Vottoman Empire. This was by far my favorite team name and it stuck until I had to say goodbye to Joey — either through trade or… I can’t remember. Last year, Votto decided to embrace the fly ball revolution and…
Last season, Joey Votto closed the season with a .360 ISO against RHP and a 47.4% fly ball rate. Wow. His HR/FB% was 28.7% — the second-highest of his long career. Joey Votto will face Antonio Senzatela in Coors Field, tonight. I don’t have to worry about ownership, here.
Hopefully, he is one of the Reds who can go yard. DraftKings suspects he will do so, posting only a +255 price for a home run against the Rockies.
Make sure you get your picks in. This is the last slate of April. All home runs count for the season total but on Tuesday we will wipe the slate clean for May.
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Tuesday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.
Player Image Credit: Imagn