2021 MLB All-Star Game Odds, Betting Picks, Prediction

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-07-13 19:05:54

2021 All-Star Game Odds

The 2021 Major League Baseball All-Star Game will take place at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado Tuesday evening, marking the first midsummer classic in over two years. As always, it will be a star-studded affair, and the Mile High air should play a big role throughout the evening. Oddsmakers currently list the National League as -121 favorites on the moneyline, and +150 on the run line. The over/under presently sits at 11 (-105/-115).

The National League has an absolutely stacked pitching staff, while the American League’s lineup boasts an incredible array of power. So, how do we approach this game from an MLB betting perspective? What about DFS? Let’s break down the 2021 All-Star Game from a multitude of angles, and try to make ourselves some money.

Moneyline Pick

The National League gets the slight edge here, thanks mostly to starting pitcher Max Scherzer. The eight-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer will make his fourth-career start in the Midsummer Classic, and fifth career start at Coors Field. Of course, the NL gets some extra love from the sportsbooks based on Coors technically being the NL’s ‘home’ park.

Here’s the thing: there’s no home-field advantage in All-Star Games. Five of the last seven have taken place at National League parks, yet the American League has won seven consecutive times. Beyond Germán Márquez, the only players who really benefit from the altitude of Coors Field are the home run hitters. And if Tuesday turns into 2021 Home Run Derby 2.0, my money would be on the AL +100.

The NL has a handful of big-swinging names unable to suit up for this one: Ronald Acuña, Mookie Betts, Kyle Schwarber, Buster Posey, Yadier Molina. It also must go without four of the top 10 pitchers in baseball: Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, Brandon Woodruff, and Kevin Gausman. The AL will be feeling it as well—Mike Trout and Shane Bieber highlight the list—but the NL has certainly been bit harder by the injury bug.

And let’s not forget which squad truly has the advantage Tuesday night—the American League gets to start and bat leadoff the newest superstar of the sport: Japanese two-way stud Shohei Ohtani. The 27-year old phenom will look to continue his torrid success tour, bringing his 11.7 K/9 to the mound and his league-leading 33 homers to the batter’s box. I’m all about that storyline, and the storyline of the so-called ‘road underdogs’ prevailing.

ASG Pick: American League -105

Run Line Pick

There is a reason the ‘favorites’ in this Midsummer Classic are a whopping +150 on the run line. It’s because most All-Star Games remain close, and home-field advantage, like we mentioned earlier, fails to play an actual part in the outcome.

Truthfully, I’m not interested in either run line here. I wouldn’t want to bet on the NL winning by two runs, as I’m not even betting its moneyline. I also find very little value in the AL getting 1.5 runs at -180. Why bet the AL to cover +1.5 at -180 when you can bet it to win outright at +100?

If I had to choose one here, I’m obviously picking the AL +1.5. In five career starts at Coors, Scherzer is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.654 WHIP. His career batting average against in Denver: .318. And, as noted in the moneyline writeup, the NL has some high-profile names missing in action Tuesday.

Two of the last three All-Star Games have been decided by one run, and the past four have been decided by two or fewer. If you like the AL, but want some extra insurance, grab the undies’ run line and you’ll be happy even if they lose by a run.

MLB Pick: American League +1.5

Over/Under Prediction

As of Monday evening, the chatter about over/under sharp betting for the All-Star Game is that people are pounding the UNDER. And who could blame the majority of the betting public for expecting a low-scoring affair? A lot of people probably take Scherzer vs. Ohtani at face value, and expect a duel. A bunch more probably look at the fact that 13 of the last 14 All-Star Games have gone UNDER 11 runs.

Well, the contrarian here is all-in against the norm. That’s right, RotoGrinders nation: I’m betting the OVER. As Jerry Maguire would say, “who’s coming with me!? Who’s coming with me!?”

Hear me out, here. I promise I’m not just a loon who goes against the grain for shock value.

Scherzer is incredible, but he’s never been good in Denver. His opponents have enjoyed slash lines of .318/.358./.564 at Coors Field, and a staggering OPS of .922. There is something about the Colorado air that just does not agree with Scherzer’s pitching style. Players like Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rafael Devers, Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez could feast early and often.

Ohtani, meanwhile, has never pitched at Mile High. And while the Japanese sensation has flashed electric stuff on the mound, he’s not exactly immune to earned runs. Ohtani has a 3.79 ERA on the season, and he gave up seven runs in his last away game at Yankee Stadium less than two weeks ago.

One thing that Coors Field and Yankee Stadium have in common: the ball carries off the bat. That could spell success for NL home run leader Fernando Tatis, reigning MVP Freddie Freeman, and Reds sluggers Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker. And don’t forget about the Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado, who called Coors Field home for his first eight big-league seasons.

Ever since the MLB addressed pitchers using sticky stuff to aid their grip and control last month, offense has been on a meteoric rise. The mercury has also been rising nationwide, and the expected game-time temperature Tuesday is 88 degrees. Historically, hotter temperatures in Denver lead to more runs at Coors.

With a plethora of sluggers set to tee off Tuesday, more than a handful of aces sidelined, an 88-degrees forecast, and no sticky stuff in sight, I’ll bet the OVER on 11 runs. Let’s be honest, it’s more fun to root for offense in an All-Star Game, anyway. Buck the crowd, bet smart, and win some money with me!

MLB Pick: OVER 11 Runs

MLB All-Star Game DFS Picks

Schmitto: Not only can we bet on the All-Star Game, but we can also play some MLB DFS. Picking players and filling out lineups for this All-Star Game is no easy task, though.

Pitchers won’t pitch more than an inning. In 2018, fans saw 18 pitchers take the mound through 17 combined innings.

Similarly, plate appearances will be limited for hitters. In fact, no player has had more than four at-bats in an All-Star Game dating back to 2017.

Ohtani is the starting pitcher for the American League but he’s also listed as a designated hitter. For DFS purposes, on DraftKings Ohtani is only listed as a 1B/OF. The good news is that the MLB decided to make an exception for this game and allow Ohtani to bat as a DH after being replaced as a pitcher. All of that to say, don’t scratch Ohtani from your potential plays.

Top MLB DFS Picks: Hitters

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($13,800), Aaron Judge ($13,200), Nicholas Castellanos ($10,800)

Top MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers

Max Scherzer ($7,500), Zach Wheeler ($7,200), Carlos Rodon ($7,200),

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