MLB Daily Grind Down May 11th Day Games
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
There aren’t that many day games today but six is still playable. I prefer a 7-8 split on Saturday but What we are missing from the day action will just make tonight that much sweeter. With a short list of games you always have to be careful of overlay. Stephen Strasburg gets my nod as the play of the day for the afternoon games as he takes on the usually easy Cubs. There are quite a few good pitcher going so offense might be hard to come by this morning. I predict many BOS stacks. With limited options, players I would not normally suggest become playable today because short schedules require more creativity to be successful in GPPs.
Pittsburgh at NY Mets
| Pittsburgh | NY Mets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citi Field | 1:10 PM | ||||||
| Francisco Liriano – | Jonathon Niese – (2-3), 4.66 ERA, 4.97 K/9, 1.66 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (5-12 H/AB) 0.417 BA-A, 8.33 K%, 1.167 OPS-A | PvB | (17-66 H/AB) 0.258 BA-A, 15.15 K%, 0.833 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | NO DATA | HOME | (1-1), 2.08 ERA, 2 HRA, 5.4 K/9, 1.338 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
PIT BvP  | PIT vs L | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored NYM -115
Pitchers
- Home If ever there was a time to play Jonathon Niese, it would be on a day with a short schedule. He has limited K/9 upside but is a great pitcher at home so far this year and the Pirates struggle on the road. PIT is batting .233 on the road, .217 over the last 7 days, and .249 over the last 7 days so the splits are in Neise ‘s favor. In Play
- Away Francisco Liriano is only 29 years old. It seems like he has been around forever. This is his first start of the year so it is hard to know what to expect from the veteran but my guess is his produces a serviceable stat line like 6 IP 2 ER and 4 Ks. The move to the NL has been great for Burnett so why not Liriano who is not that far removed from being an ace himself? NYM is batting .220 at home, .233 versus left-handers, and .220 over the last 7 days. The OU in this game is a low 7.5. In Play
Batters
- Home Marlon Byrd is 3-4 versus Liriano. John Buck and David Wright gain the splits in their favor this morning. Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada hit lefties very well if you need a cheap option to round out your roster.
- Away Starling Marte is now priced higher than Andrew McCuthchen on a few sites. He is off to a great start the season and has remained hot over the last 7 days producing 25.5 fp. He is batting .438 versus left-handed pitching on the year. Clint Barmes is 4-12 with 1 HR versus Niese if you can stomach the pick and Andrew McCutchen is 3-6 with 2 doubles versus him. Brandon Inge remains a nice value play subbing in for an injured Neil Walker.
Toronto at Boston
| Toronto | Boston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenway Park | 1:35 PM | ||||||
| Mark Buehrle – (1-2), 7.02 ERA, 5.49 K/9, 1.56 WHIP | Clay Buchholz – (6-0), 1.6 ERA, 10.04 K/9, 1.03 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (58-173 H/AB) 0.335 BA-A, 12.72 K%, 0.96 OPS-A | PvB | (41-183 H/AB) 0.224 BA-A, 20.77 K%, 0.645 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 9.77 ERA, 5 HRA, 5.7 K/9, 1.723 WHIP | HOME | (4-0), 1.96 ERA, 0 HRA, 10.8 K/9, 1.064 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TOR BvP | TOR vs R | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.5
- Favored BOS -170
Pitchers
- Home Clay Buchholz may not be the biggest favorite of the day but he is the pitcher who is the most likely to record a W. He has 6 wins in 7 starts and sick numbers to accompany his record. TOR is batting .232 on the road, .234 versus right-handers, and .254 over the last 7 days. Target
- Away Mark Buehrle is left-handed which helps him versus BOS but I cannot recommend taking him even as a fade. He has been terrible and his K/9 totals have dwindled down to nonexistence. BOS is batting .269 at home, .240 versus left-handers, and .255 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Gentleman start your BOS stacks!! Remember Gomes as a cheap option. He is 6-15 vs. Mark. Just about everyone has positive BvPs in this one.
- Away Adam Lind and Maicer Izturis have positive BvPs if you are playing the fade.
Colorado at St. Louis
| Colorado | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 2:15 PM | ||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin – (3-1), 2.56 ERA, 5.48 K/9, 1.04 WHIP | Adam Wainwright – (4-2), 2.72 ERA, 8.78 K/9, 1.11 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (8-33 H/AB) 0.242 BA-A, 12.12 K%, 0.727 OPS-A | PvB | (19-67 H/AB) 0.284 BA-A, 23.88 K%, 0.701 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 2.31 ERA, 1 HRA, 6.9 K/9, 1.029 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 1.13 ERA, 0 HRA, 10.1 K/9, 0.688 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| COL BvP | COL vs R | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored STL -170
Pitchers
- Home I do not know how many people actually read this thing but I told you last time not to trust Adam Wainwright on the road in MIL. Adam Wainwright at home in STL is a whole different story. His home ERA this year is a very nice 1.13 and he is a legitimate ace with huge K/9 upside. COL is batting .265 on the road, .270 versus right-handed pitching, and .214 over the last 7 days. Do not expect a Shelby Miller stat line but Wainwright should pay his value today. Target
- Away Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.56 ERA on the season and is 3-1. The numbers are real. He has a 1.04 WHIP and is inducing ground balls. I do not think you will see him return to the days when he was 10+ K/9 pitcher but he is showing that he can still compete in this league. There are not many options today so if you want to play the fade thinking that a very cheap Chacin could get the win and pitch near perfect outside of COL then go ahead because it could happen. STL is batting .259 at home, .269 versus right-handers, and .303 over the last 7 days. In Play
Batters
- Home The BvP numbers are low but Matt Holiday and Jon Jay have taken hi yard before. Allen Craig has been hot over the last 7 days producing 26 fp.
- Away Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Michael Cuddyer all have positive BvPs versus Wainwright. I am always tempted to take troy no matter what the matchup because he is by far the best SS in baseball. He is batting .357 versus right-handed pitching.
Atlanta at San Francisco
| Atlanta | San Francisco | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Park | 4:05 PM | ||||||
| Paul Maholm – (4-3), 3.09 ERA, 7.92 K/9, 1.08 WHIP | Madison Bumgarner – (3-1), 2.31 ERA, 8.38 K/9, 0.94 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (34-119 H/AB) 0.286 BA-A, 10.08 K%, 0.832 OPS-A | PvB | (23-89 H/AB) 0.258 BA-A, 24.72 K%, 0.809 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-2), 3.9 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.4 K/9, 1.167 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 3.6 ERA, 3 HRA, 10.4 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| ATL BvP | ATL vs L | SFG BvP | SFG vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored SFO -125
Pitchers
- Home Madison Bumgarner finally got pushed around by PHI in his last start but has been great on the year with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He is the slight favorite in a game the features the lowest OU of the day. ATL is batting .244 on the road, .242 versus right-handed pitching, and .266 over the last 7 days. Target
- Away Paul Maholm has huge potential but he has run into trouble this year on the road. SFO is a pitcher park and he is capable of GPP winning performances. SFO is batting .273 at home, .243 versus left-handed pitching, and .262 over the last 7 days. In Play
Batters
- Home Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, and Pablo Sandoval all hit lefties well and are producing over the last 7 days. Hunter Pence is 14-47 versus Maholm with 2 HRs. Angel Pagan is 7-21 versus him and Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey have positive BvPs as well.
- Away If you are playing the fade then Justin Upton is 8-14 with 1 HR versus Bumgarner. Freddie Freeman has positive numbers also and has been producing well over the last 7 days. Dan Uggla has been super hot producing 30.5 fp over the last week.
Chicago Cubs at Washington
| Chicago Cubs | Washington | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals Park | 4:05 PM | ||||||
| Edwin Jackson – (0-5), 6.39 ERA, 9.24 K/9, 1.63 WHIP | Stephen Strasburg – (1-4), 3.45 ERA, 8.98 K/9, 1.15 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (15-54 H/AB) 0.278 BA-A, 22.22 K%, 0.722 OPS-A | PvB | (6-22 H/AB) 0.273 BA-A, 18.18 K%, 0.545 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 3.18 ERA, 1 HRA, 6.9 K/9, 1.059 WHIP | HOME | (1-2), 1.35 ERA, 1 HRA, 7.7 K/9, 0.75 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHC BvP | CHC vs R | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored WAS -200
Pitchers
- Home Do not be fooled by Stephen Strasburg average ERA of 3.45 and 1-4 record. He still has huge upside and massive K/9 potential. His troubles this year have come on the road but at home he is 1.35 pitcher with 17 Ks in 20 IP. CHC are batting .212 on the road, .242 versus right-handers, and .268 over the last 7 days. Target
- Away Edwin Jackson as not made it more than 6 IP in any start this year. His K/9 totals are high but if he is not going deep into games that does no matter. When pitching his best, he has GPP upside but I am not seeing that player right now. He is 0-5 with a 6.39 ERA on the year. Still, there are not that many options in a 6 game schedule and he more upside than Chacin does. WAS is batting .244 at home, .246 versus right-handers, and .256 over the last 7 days. In Play
Batters
- Home Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche have been hot over the last week and their price has dropped because of injuries and poor starts to the season. Harper will most likely sit out this one so be careful of that.
- Away If you want to play the fade then Anthony Rizzo draws the lefty/righty matchup and has been hot producing 26.75. I would not look too deep past him today.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great American Ball Park | 4:10 PM | ||||||
| Marco Estrada – (2-2), 6.05 ERA, 9.19 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | Mat Latos – (3-0), 2.23 ERA, 8.78 K/9, 1.17 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (24-82 H/AB) 0.293 BA-A, 17.07 K%, 0.976 OPS-A | PvB | (23-108 H/AB) 0.213 BA-A, 25.93 K%, 0.685 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 2.79 ERA, 3 HRA, 7.4 K/9, 1.086 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 1.74 ERA, 2 HRA, 9.6 K/9, 0.968 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIL BvP | MIL vs R | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored CIN -185
Pitchers
- Home Mat Latos is another great ace taking the mound today as the huge favorite. There is not a number I can list for you that is negative. He is a 1.74 pitcher at home this year and has held MIL to a .213 BAA. MIL is batting .230 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .292 over the last 7 days.
- Away Hiram Burgos has been very solid on the year. Like with the other two big dogs going today, I think he is in play just because there are fewer options. His K/9 totals are low but his 0.89 WHIP suggest that he should be competitive today. CIN is batting .262 at home, .235 versus right-handers, and .255 over the last 7 days. In Play
Batters
- *Home*The left-handed bats of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Shin-Soo Choo look very appealing today with the splits in their favor. Out of all of the “cute plays” I have suggested at SP, I think Burgos is the one who is most likely to get hit hard today.
- Away Carlos Gomez is 4-9 versus Latos with 2 HRs. Rickie Weeks is 5-16 with 2 HRs. Jean Segura, Aramis Ramirez and Jonathan Lucroy have positive numbers also.
