Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, June 27
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got the full enchilada with all 30 MLB teams on tonight’s slate. The slate is loaded with quality pitchers up and down the charts and then skewed heavily to the Dodgers visiting Coors Field on the hitting side. I’m going to narrow down my pitching pool as best as I can, which means leaving out a slew of quality arms that you are welcome to include in your own pool if you want to spread out further than me. In case you’re keeping track at home, I just used the words skewed and slew in the same paragraph. Happy Tuesday indeed!
I’m hoping to be able to find some non-Dodgers bats to prioritize as we start digging into these MLB DFS picks – but spoiler alert – the Dodgers in Coors Field against Connor Seabold are the top offense. Who could have guessed it!
Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is an incredibly deep and loaded pitching slate. I am going to do my best to narrow things down and not clog everything up with unnecessary words. With that in mind, there are a bunch of talented pitchers that I’m not even going to list or discuss. Just to name a few – Clayton Kershaw, Joe Ryan, Andrew Abbott, Jordan Montgomery, Sandy Alcantara. The list goes on, and as always, you can have as many pitchers as you want in the pool. But for me, this kind of slate just has to be narrowed down. So let’s see what we can find starting with these groups, organized by DK pricing tiers:
High End Aces
Shohei Ohtani vs. White Sox
Kevin Gausman vs. Giants
Framber Valdez at Cardinals
Zac Gallen vs. Rays
Mid-Tier
Taj Bradley at Diamondbacks
Michael Kopech at Angels
Tyler Wells vs. Reds
Yu Darvish at Pirates
Bryce Elder vs. Twins
Savings
Ranger Suarez at Cubs
Bryan Woo vs. Nationals
Gavin Williams at Royals
Martin Perez vs. Tigers
David Peterson vs. Brewers
WHO IS THE ACE?
Shohei Ohtani vs. White Sox – 32.6% K, 10.3% BB, 3.13 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
Kevin Gausman vs. Giants – 31.5% K, 6.2% BB, 3.10 ERA, 3.08 SIERA
Framber Valdez at Cardinals – 26.7% K, 5.4% BB, 2.27 ERA, 3.11 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs. Rays – 26.4% K, 5.1% BB, 2.84 ERA, 3.53 SIERA
The first thing to point out here is that, while these guys are all awesome, the two highest-strikeout pitchers so far this season are not in this $10k+ tier. Those would be Taj Bradley and Bryan Woo, both of whom lack sample size and experience, and we’ll talk about next.
As far as these spend-ups, Shohei Ohtani and Kevin Gausman are just far enough ahead in strikeout ability to prioritize them ahead of Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen. I also slightly prefer the matchups for Ohtani and Gausman, though really, there’s not a tremendous difference in any of these four.
The way I see this slate is that, if we’re going to spend $10k+ on either site, I want to be chasing slate-winning upside. This is not at all to say that Valdez and Gallen don’t have slate-winning upside, but they don’t spike those big strikeout games as often.
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