MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, July 1
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, July 1st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy July! We’ve got the usual split-slate thing happening in the MLB streets today, but we’re calling the 7-gamers starting at 4:05 ET the main slates. That means we’ll be dodging the Tigers-Rockies Coors Field bonanza, but there are still a handful of teams with implied run totals north of 5. We’ve also got quite a bit more competent starting pitching than we had on last night’s weird 12-gamer, which should make your lineups look a little easier to stomach on paper.
Seven games mean no shortage of quality MLB DFS picks, so let’s dive right in.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIL/PIT draws a straight YELLOW with storms in the area and a chance for a delay. Corbin Burnes should be a reasonably popular pitching option today if the weather isn’t an issue, but we’ll have to see how this one looks closer to lock.
- WAS/PHI is GREEN/YELLOW for a low chance of a short delay. MIN/BAL has slightly more risk with YELLOW/GREEN with the potential for late-game rain, but that shouldn’t be a huge red flag when it comes to rostering the SPs here.
- MIA/ATL is YELLOW because of those classic Atlanta afternoon pop-up storms. This game is otherwise hot, with temps of around 95 degrees around the scheduled first pitch. Winds are also blowing out toward left-center between 9-10 mph, which is another boost to bats.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Kyle Muller is listed as the scheduled starter for the A’s today, which will be his first MLB appearance since May 22nd. He was one of the prized prospects that came over in the Sean Murphy trade, but he’s been roasted to the tune of an 8.04 ERA through 10 big-league starts on the year.
- Jeremy Pena missed last night’s game because of a stiff neck, which makes him questionable to return today against Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers. We have him projected to start and hit seventh today, though Mauricio Dubon would likely start if Pena sits again today.
- Michael Conforto is expected to miss this weekend’s #RevengeSeries against the Mets due to lingering hamstring soreness. Joc Pederson, Luis Matos, and Austin Slater are projected to start in San Francisco’s outfield today against Justin Verlander.
- Yuli Gurriel was scratched from the Marlins’ lineup last night after taking a ball to the face during pregame fielding drills. If he sits again today, Garrett Cooper will likely take over at first base once again today against Charlie Morton. Jacob Stallings left last night’s game early with a sore ankle, which should mean a Nick Fortes start behind the plate.
- Josh Palacios is projected to lead off for the Pirates today, which is noteworthy at just $2,100 on FanDuel and minimum-salary on DraftKings. Another min-priced player, Jared Triolo, is expected to start at third.
- The Braves completely shattered Friday night’s slate, and they’re arguably the top offense on the board again today against rookie Eury Perez. Perez has pitched awfully well this season, but the Braves’ loaded lineup combined with hitter-friendly weather is enough for me to side with the bats. The highest total on the board surprisingly belongs to the White Sox at Oakland against the aforementioned Kyle Muller. The Phillies, who will face off against MacKenzie Gore, have a 5.2 implied run total. None of these offenses are in obvious smash spots, so I’d expect the ownership to be fairly spread out this afternoon.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Zack Wheeler ($10,500) is the headliner on FanDuel today, and he draws a decent home matchup against Washington. The Nats are only striking out 18.6% of the time vs. right-handed pitching on the year, but it’s a solid spot for run prevention. I wouldn’t be surprised if the slightly cheaper Dylan Cease ($10,300) came in a bit more popular with a road matchup against the A’s. Cease’s strikeouts have come back around in a big way after a slow start to the year, and Oakland (25.7%) has a lot more Ks in the lineup than Washington does. Eury Perez ($10,100) and Nathan Eovaldi ($9,900) face much tougher tests against Atlanta and Houston, respectively.
- If Wheeler or Cease isn’t chalk, that’s because Justin Verlander probably will be. His days of being an elite strikeout pitcher are likely done, but he’s still a solid real-life hurler in a boom/bust matchup against the Giants. San Francisco will whiff (23.6%), and JV’s likely still a bit underpriced at only $8,800. If you’re not sold on Verlander, I have no qualms with dropping down to get to Kyle Bradish ($7,800) against a Twins lineup with the highest K-rate in the majors against right-handed pitching (28.4%).
- The matchup against Perez is far from ideal, but this guy is still awfully early in his career. Three of Atlanta’s best bats (Acuna, Albies, and Riley) are projecting to be at least 19% owned over on FanDuel, so this is the closest thing we have to a chalk offense. Perez does have a significant flyball lean, which certainly increases the power risk on a hot day in Atlanta. The rest of the lineup is coming in south of 10% projected ownership, however.
- Atlanta has been a much lower-strikeout lineup vs. right-handed pitching this season (20.5%), so I’ll be taking less than 5.0 strikeouts for Perez on Underdog today. Remember to take advantage of our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The White Sox are another standout offense here against Muller, who just hasn’t looked like a major-league pitcher so far this season. Perhaps spending the last month in the minors allowed him to iron out some of the wrinkles, and the pitcher-friendly ballpark should help. Chicago will likely throw 8 right-handed bats his way, headlined by the white-hot Luis Robert (.498 wOBA, .375 ISO vs. LHP). Jake Burger (.339 ISO) and Andrew Vaughn (.197) are the other primary power sources, while Eloy Jimenez ($3,300) is starting to find his form. We’ll get useful discounts on Tim Anderson ($2,500) and Andrew Benintendi ($2,700), as well. If you’re paying up for pitching, stacking the White Sox is a lot more palatable than stacking the pricier Braves.
- Gore is another talented young pitcher, but the Phillies’ projected lineup has a collective ISO just south of .200 vs. LHPs on the year. Gore has also yielded 13 dongs already this season, while he hasn’t necessarily shut down his fellow lefties (.419 wOBA). That keeps Philly’s full lineup in play today, including Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, and JT Realmuto are the standouts in any stack, while you can find value with Alec Bohm ($3,000), Josh Harrison ($2,200), and Edmundo Sosa ($2,100). Despite the high total, I expect the Phillies to come in quite a bit lower-owned than the Braves and White Sox.
- Jean Segura has struggled for most of the year, but he’s $2,000 and should benefit from that glorious hitting weather in Atlanta today. He’s grading out as a useful value on FD, though the ownership is also there (21.5%). Garrett Cooper ($2,500) and Nick Fortes ($2,200) are a couple of other Miami bats worth considering in a mini-stack.
- Brewers lefties – including Rowdy Tellez ($2,700), Brice Turang ($2,000), Jesse Winker ($2,300), and Christian Yelich ($3,400) make sense in a stack against Pirates right-hander Johan Oviedo. Seth Brown gets a tough draw against Cease, but he’s just better than his $2,400 salary would lead you to believe.
- The pitching pricing on DraftKings isn’t quite as cumbersome with nobody topping $10,000. Nathan Eovaldi leads the way at just $9,500, followed by Hunter Brown ($9,300) on the other side of the same game. Given the quality of the offenses on both sides, though, I doubt either guy will be all that popular. Verlander ($8,300), Wheeler ($9,100), Cease ($8,000), and Burnes ($8,700) are better targets in more favorable spots. Cease’s salary is particularly ridiculous for a matchup at Oakland, so he should be heavy DK chalk as a result.
- The expensive pitchers are cheap, but then there’s Kyle Bradish. He’s coming in at just $5,800 against the high-strikeout Twins for…reasons. Bradish’s numbers are about average across the board, which is enough to make him look wildly underpriced over here. His wide reverse split makes him susceptible to righty power, but this ballpark happens to be the best in the league in terms of muting righty power. Taking the significant discount on Bradish is an easy way to afford your Braves and Phillies, so I’d expect that to be a very popular roster construction.
- Even with cheaper pitchers, stacking the Braves sans Bradish still isn’t all that easy with 4 hitters priced at $5,900 or higher. They’re great, and I’d love to find a way to get to them as much as possible, but they’re certainly not facing a gas can in this spot. Even Travis d’Arnaud is $4,900, which seems a little egregious.
- We’re likely looking at more White Sox chalk over here at significantly more affordable salaries. Robert at $4,600 is a clear underpay, while nobody else in the projected lineup is even over $4,000. Six ChiSox bats project for double-digit ownership against Muller and that much-maligned A’s bullpen.
- The Marlins also have some expensive bats with Chisholm, Soler, and Arraez all at $4,800 or above. Charlie Morton has been awfully inconsistent so far this season, and his strikeout rate vs. RHBs is all the way down to about 21%. Segura ($3,100), Cooper ($3,300), and De La Cruz ($3,900) make for solid individual targets to help fill out what should be a fairly low-owned stack.
- A few one-off cheapies worth considering are Josh Palacios ($2,000), Clint Frazier ($2,100), Henry Davis ($2,200), and Ryan Noda ($2,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!