MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, August 2
Taylor Smith previews the Wednesday, August 2nd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Another Wednesday means another split slate, though we’re here to talk about the 8-game evening docket. One thing that stands out instantly is that we don’t have to worry about the Padres in Coors Field again, while you can make a compelling case for just about every pitcher on the board as a viable GPP option. This has the makings of a fun slate with countless roster construction routes to take.
So, let’s hop right in and find some MLB DFS picks for Wednesday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIN/STL is the game with the worst weather on the evening slate with a YELLOW/ORANGE tag as of this morning. Kevin Roth says the game should start fine with the potential for late-arriving rain. If the slow-moving storms interrupt play, they have the potential to be game-ending. There’s a chance this one doesn’t get through all 9 innings, but tune into Crunch Time tonight for Roth’s up-to-the-minute forecast.
- NYM/KC is GREEN/YELLOW with a small chance for a delay. This game also features hot, humid conditions with winds blowing in at around 10 mph.
- CIN/CHC and ARI/SF are both GREEN. The game at Wrigley will have light winds blowing across the field and then out toward left by the latter stages. The wind in San Francisco is howling between 20-25 mph out to left-center. This park was notoriously built to minimize wind impact, but these are significantly stronger winds than we’re used to seeing.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The trade deadline passed last night, so we don’t have to worry about that anymore. Dakota Hudson is scheduled to make a rare start for the Cardinals tonight against the Twins. 6 of his 7 appearances on the season have come in relief, though he did throw 93 pitches across 4.1 innings after Miles Mikolas was ejected last week against the Cubs.
- Corey Seager is making a surprise return to the Rangers’ lineup tonight after missing time with a thumb injury. That’s obviously a huge boost to Texas as a stack, and a decent hit to Cease as a pitching option.
- The Diamondbacks have Back to the Future antagonist Slade Cecconi listed as the starter tonight in San Francisco. The right-hander has a 6.38 ERA across 20 starts at Triple-A this season, and this will be his MLB debut. Cecconi is ranked as Arizona’s No. 9 prospect by MLB.com.
- Mookie Betts returned to the Dodgers’ lineup last night after missing back-to-back games with a sore ankle. Will Smith was back after leaving Sunday’s game with an elbow issue. J.D. Martinez, however, sat out with the hamstring injury he sustained on Sunday. Martinez had an MRI on the injury yesterday, though the Dodgers haven’t yet shared the results. Chris Taylor is a candidate to start at DH tonight against Hogan Harris if Martinez remains sidelined.
- Brandon Nimmo was a late scratch from the Mets’ lineup last night with quad tightness. There’s no word on the severity, but he’s likely just day-to-day. Danny Mendick cracked the lineup in Nimmo’s place yesterday. Starling Marte could be activated off the injured list today after missing time due to migraines. The Mets also traded Tommy Pham to Arizona yesterday, which could open up some playing time for DJ Stewart and Rafael Ortega in the outfield.
- Bo Bichette is reportedly dealing with right knee inflammation, which kept him out of the Blue Jays’ lineup last night. He hasn’t landed on the IL, however, so there’s a chance he returns soon. Santiago Espinal and Paul DeJong are candidates to start at short in Bichette’s place if he remains out tonight.
- The Cubs DFA’d Trey Mancini last night in order to make room for Jeimer Candelario on the roster. He’s projected to start at third and hit 8th tonight in Chicago against lefty Brandon Williamson.
- Nolan Gorman missed last night’s game with his lingering back injury. Taylor Motter drew another start at second base. Tommy Edman was activated off the injured list and took over at shortstop for the recently-traded DeJong. Brendan Donovan is done for the year after undergoing arm surgery.
- The A’s didn’t activate Esteury Ruiz from the injured list yesterday, so there’s a chance they do so today ahead of their clash with Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers in LA.
- Harrison Bader should be back in the Yankees’ lineup against Shane McClanahan after getting the night off on Tuesday.
- Without Coors or the Braves to worry about, ownership on the hitting side of things should be spread out tonight. The Cubs broke the slate with a 20-run barrage last night, and they’re popping as one of the better stacks tonight against the aforementioned Williamson with decent hitting weather in Chicago. The Dodgers stand out as another quality stack as they prepare to face a second consecutive lefty in Hogan Harris. Just about every other team on the slate is facing a decent-to-good pitcher, though the Royals (vs. Kodai Senga) and the Twins (vs. Dakota Hudson) both look like solid sources of value.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Gerrit Cole ($10,900) and Logan Webb ($10,500) are your headliners tonight against Tampa Bay and Arizona, respectively. Neither ace is in an ideal spot, but they’re both steady enough to pay off their salaries in any format. Kodai Senga ($10,600) and Joe Ryan ($10,300) both look a bit overpriced for what they bring to the table, though Senga could still get some ownership against a generally underwhelming Royals lineup.
- Dylan Cease ($9,300) is a pure GPP play on the road in Texas. The Rangers are a little shorthanded these days, but Cease just hasn’t shown the consistency we saw a season ago. Tony Gonsolin ($8,400) gets the best matchup on the board at home against a largely punchless A’s offense, while Drew Smyly ($8,000) and Yusei Kikuchi ($8,600) are on my radar in multi-entry tournaments.
- Taking unders on pitcher strikeouts isn’t always comfortable, but the total for Gerrit Cole (8.0) looks a little high on Underdog tonight. His 27.3% strikeout rate on the year is his lowest mark since 2017, and he’s only topped 8 Ks 5 times through his first 22 starts. I’ll be holding my breath and rolling with Cole to rack up lower than 8 punchouts on UD. If you’re new to the site, be sure to use our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Cubs look great with a 5.33 total, and it has nothing to do with their explosion last night. Williamson’s numbers are mediocre across the board, but he’s struggled considerably more with right-handed bats. Seiya Suzuki ($2,800), Dansby Swanson ($3,200), Nico Hoerner ($3,300), and Ian Happ ($3,200) are all reasonably priced. Christopher Morel ($4,100) has tattooed lefties to the tune of a 20.6% barrel rate this season, while even Cody Bellinger ($3,700) has fared decently against same-handed pitching. The addition of Candelario ($2,900) gives the stack more depth, too.
- The Dodgers’ 6.28 total is actually the highest on the night. Hulk Hogan Harris hasn’t been a gas can for Oakland, but this is also the Dodgers against a guy with a 20% strikeout rate and a mid-4s SIERA. We can once again look to Chris Taylor ($2,800), Enrique Hernandez ($2,500), and Amed Rosario ($2,900) for value while building around Mookie Betts ($4,200), Will Smith ($3,500), and Freddie Freeman ($4,300), as usual.
- The only other team with an implied run total of over 5 is the Mets against lefty Cole Ragans. Ragans has neutral splits for his career at the MLB level, but right-handed hitters have done the most damage in the power department. Pete Alonso ($4,200) and Francisco Alvarez ($3,200) have been the Mets’ most potent bats all year, while Francisco Lindor ($3,800) and Starling Marte ($2,900) would be my next stops in stacks. Mark Vientos ($2,300) is a useful salary-saver.
- The Royals have been poor with the bats this season, but they have some payoff potential as a value stack tonight against Senga. Senga’s walk rate is still pushing 12%, which helps to explain why his SIERA is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. This game also features some of the better hitting weather on the night. Bobby Witt ($3,500) is the core play, while I like MJ Melendez ($2,800), Edward Olivares ($2,600), and Maikel Garcia ($3,000) as cheapies.
- Cole ($10,800) and Ryan ($10,100) are your pricey pitchers on DraftKings tonight, though I much prefer the spot for Cole against the Rays. Ryan is a viable tournament option, but he’s expensive and pulling about 23% ownership as of this writing. I’d rather allocate that salary elsewhere.
- Logan Webb ($9,800) doesn’t have the greatest matchup for Ks at home against Arizona, but he’s steady and comes with a decent leash. Shane McClanahan ($9,300) is a bit underpriced by his standards, but he’s still working his way back from injury. Going for a cheaper SP2 looks like the way to go. Gonsolin ($7,500) grades out as the best value of the bunch and decent for cash games, though Cease ($8,400), Kikuchi ($7,800), and Smyly ($6,800) all have merit as tournament targets. Even Dane Dunning ($6,100) is in play as a punt at home against the lowly White Sox.
- As is the case on FanDuel, we can look to the Dodgers for both value and upside tonight against Hogan Harris. Taylor ($3,200), Hernandez ($3,000), and James Outman ($3,400) are reasonably priced before we fork over the cash for Betts ($6,200), Smith ($5,600), and Freeman ($6,400). There is enough playable cheap pitching to make it pretty easy to afford a full LAD stack, so plenty of ownership should congregate here.
- The co-chalk team is likely the Cubs against Williamson. Suzuki ($3,200), Happ ($3,300), and Yan Gomes ($3,100) are the primary cheap bats, but just about everybody else here is at $4,000 or above. Perhaps Bellinger ($4,900) flies a bit under the radar as the most expensive Cub in a lefty-lefty spot.
- Kikuchi is in play, but so are the Orioles against him. The lefty has allowed 22 homers through 21 starts with a barrel rate pushing 10%. The Baltimore lineup isn’t quite as imposing vs. LHPs, but Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays all have respectable numbers. Jordan Westburg has also done some damage against southpaws (.238 ISO) in a smaller sample.
- A few cheap one-offs worth consideration tonight are Mark Vientos ($2,000), Kyle Isbel ($2,400), Oscar Colas ($2,100), and Ramon Urias ($2,200).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!