Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (June 2)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
With a walkoff win on Thursday, Arizona is now tied with Los Angeles for the best record in the NL (34-23). They’re an NL-best 19-8 at home, too. A couple moves around the edges and this team could be a real contender.
Dean Kremer’s Hard Contact vs. San Francisco’s Frosty Offense
After a rough April, Kremer turned his season around in May. He gave up three runs or less in all five starts and trimmed his ERA from 6.67 to 4.58. So what changed when the calendar flipped over?
No idea. Kremer is 7th percentile in hard-hit rate and it was way worse in May. League average is 36% and Kremer was at 43% in April. That number exploded to 56% in May. And it’s not like he was generating more ground balls, as his GB% and FB% were nearly identical (36.5% / 39.6% vs. 37.5% / 40.0%). Yet he only allowed a pair of home runs in May after giving up seven in April.
The Giants have cooled off after crushing RHPs in April. They were 2nd in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. righties in the first month of the season, but were 19th or worse in those categories in May. San Francisco has a bunch of high K% bats, but also eight hitters with above-average hard-hit rates against RHPs in its projected lineup.
SUMMARY: The hard contact has to catch up to Kremer at some point. And we’ll need some cheap hitting to fit the high-end SPs. Start with the left-handed power of Lamonte Wade and Blake Sabol then mix in Mitch Haniger and J.D. Davis as needed. And don’t forget Michael Conforto if he’s back in there today.
Tyler Glasnow’s Upside vs. All the Other Aces
My goodness there are a lot of stud SPs on this slate. Ohtani, Wheeler, Verlander, Kershaw and Castillo to name a few.
Simple math tells us some SPs will get lost in the mix. Glasnow looks like he’ll be one of the arms to get overlooked. He returned after an extended absence with an uneven outing against the Dodgers last week (3 ER over 4.1 innings with eight strikeouts).
Glasnow is cheaper than the big glob of aces, which makes sense given his workload questions. But THE BAT projects him at 87 pitches, so we should at least get five strong innings.
SUMMARY: While the SP pool is loaded today, few can match Glasnow’s strikeout upside. Even in a challenging matchup, I like him as a pivot option. The $1K-2K in savings don’t hurt either.
Jameson Taillon’s Recent Performance vs. San Diego’s Disappointing Offense
Taillon might not be healthy. He missed three weeks with a groin strain and skipped a rehab assignment, with the Cubs opting to build him back up at the MLB level.
It’s gone poorly, as he’s posted a 10.90 ERA over 17.1 innings since returning. The Cubs have also lost all eight of Taillion’s starts this season.
Even with Fernando Tatis back, the Padres were a bottom six offense vs. RHPs in May. The plate discipline has been impressive (1st in BB/K) but the thump hasn’t been there (23rd in scoring and 27th in HRs).
SUMMARY: Tatis and Juan Soto are the headliners, but there’s a good opportunity to build a cheap stack here. Rougned Odor and Ha-Seong Kim have been hot, Matt Carpenter has a .257 ISO vs. RHPs and Gary Sanchez is back from the dead.
I’m taking the San Diego team total Over 4.5 (-110 on FanDuel).