MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/18/2022
Today we have a nine-game slate with a few rain spots to monitor along with the always fun wind blowing out in Wrigley and more Coors field action with the Phillies in town.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
It’s looking ugly in Washington today with 98% rain at first pitch with rain all night until it possibly slowing down around 11pm. Things could change throughout the day or they start this game very late but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a postponement. The Mets are also looking at rain all night and have a good chance to get PPD too but even if they play the wind is blowing in hard in both the WAS and NYM games with pretty good pitching in both games so I won’t be targeting bats in either game and the rain uncertainty is making me weary of the pitchers too.
UPDATE: ARI/WAS has been PPD. SFG/NYM has been PPD.
We have ~20mph winds blowing out to right in Wrigley (very cold though) along with ~8mph winds out to left in Coors while BAL/OAK and ATL/LAD have 8-10 winds blowing out and CIN/SDP have slight winds blowing in (PIT/MIL & LAA/HOU are in domes).
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see total runs for CIN/SDP are +24.5% while ERA is +19.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Phillies are standing out as the top offense to target today playing in Coors going against Chad Kuhl. They’re going to be harder to fit on DK as the top five in their order are $5.4k+ but it should be much easier to fit a few of them in on FD as those top five are $3.5k-$4.3k with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber my priorities today.
The Rays are Cubs are interesting today as the conditions in Wrigley are cold and windy and not great for hitters as shown by the 8 run game total but the wind is still blowing out hard. Shane McClanahan has been great in his two starts with 15 total strikeouts and just 3 ER but the Cubs are still in play for me as they are priced a bit too cheap (moreso on FD). The Rays should be more popular than the Cubs as they face Kyle Hendricks who has just 11k’s and 7 ER over his two starts this year and guys like Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena are just too cheap on FanDuel.
The Dodgers at home against a mediocre righty are always in play for a full stack and I will likely get a couple of their bats in my main build while the Brewers and Athletics are my favorite sneaky stacks of the day.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting my cash team with Bryce Harper ($4,200) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,500) with the platoon advantage in Coors at prices that are way too low for this spot while Alec Bohm ($3,200) is another nice option. On the other side of that game I’d consider Charlie Blackmon for $3,400 as he’s 7-for-19 in his career against Aaron Nola with a .316 ISO. I mentioned them earlier but Brandon Lowe ($3,500) and Randy Arozarena ($2,800) are standing out as underpriced against Hendricks with the wind blowing out so both will likely make my main build and possible Josh Lowe too. Depending on your positional needs I’d consider Nick Madrigal ($2,400), Frank Schwindel ($2,800), and Seiya Suzuki ($3,300) for cheap exposure to the Cubs even though their matchup isn’t as ideal as other guys today. Christian Yelich at $3,000 just feels wrong and I think he and a couple other Brewers are great plays today at home against Zach Thompson mainly Wong, Adames, and McCutchen.
Looking at DraftKings I might not force in Bryce Harper for $6,200 but Kyle Schwarber will likely make the cut for me at $5,400 as I definitely want some Phillies exposure on each site today. Rhys Hoskins ($5,400), Jean Segura ($4,500), and Alec Bohm ($3,600) are my next favorite Phillies on DK for the price. If you want some exposure to Wrigley on DK today my favorite guys are Ji-Man Choi ($3,800) and Yan Gomes ($3,400) while the other main guys in that game are priced a bit too high for me. Some other hitters on DK I like today for the price are Luke Voit ($3,300), Justin Turner ($3,900), Seth Brown ($3,400), Brandon Marsh ($3,200), Cody Bellinger ($3,100), Rowdy Tellez ($2,800), and Josh Lowe ($2,900).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn