MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/2/2022
We have a small 6-game main slate today with zero rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have no rain to worry about and ARI/MIA, NYY/TOR, and SEA/HOU are all in domes so just three games with wind to check. MIN/BAL will have a slight breeze from left to right and 60-70 degree temps, ATL/NYM will have ~8mph winds blowing in with temps in the mid 50s, and TBR/OAK has ~10mph blinds blowing out to right with temps in the high 50’s.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIN/BAL are +5.8% while total runs for ATL/NYM are -18.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL today and should slot right back in to the lead-off spot which moves Chas McCormick back down to 7th or 8th while Aledmys Diaz is likely out of the lineup now. Wander Franco should be back in there after sitting yesterday and Josh Lowe was just optioned to AAA so his value bat won’t be in there today.
There’s a lot of solid pitching going today and no team has a projected total over 4.5 as of 9am EST but the Astros are sitting with the highest total of 4.43 with the Yankees right behind them at 4.37. For their salaries I’m going with Houston as my favorite stack today while the Yankees are still my next favorite but are harder to fit at their prices. I also really like the Twins in Camden Yards against Tyler Wells and they’re very affordable to stack on both sites. I don’t know how “sneaky” they’ll be but the Mariners against Odorizzi are one of my favorite GPP stacks especially on DK where they’re priced up and likely to be very low-owned.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I really like the price of Jose Altuve at $3,000 with the platoon advantage along with Adam Frazier ($2,700) and Jesse Winker ($2,600) for some cheap SEA exposure. The Twins are standing out to me as some of the best value today as Carlos Correa ($3,200) and Max Kepler ($2,800) have been on fire of late while Jorge Polanco ($2,900) and Luis Arraez ($2,500) make for great cheap options to fill out the stack while Byron Buxton ($3,900) is always the highest-upside Twin if you can fit him. Some other FD bats I like for the price are Bo Bichette ($3,300), Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900), Randy Arozarena ($2,700), and Jose Miranda ($2,000).
Looking at DraftKings the first guy I’m locking in is Max Kepler for just $3,400 as he’s hitting .391 over his last seven games including four HR’s during that span and he’s struck out just 3 times in his last 23 ABs. Jorge Polanco ($3,800) and Luis Arraez ($3,400) are my next favorite plays for the price and I will likely fill out the stack with Byron Buxton ($5,700) and/or Carlos Correa ($4,600) depending on positional needs. Newly promoted Jose Miranda is hitting 6th and just $2,000 if you need some value at 3B today. On the other side of that game the Orioles have a tougher matchup against Paddack as he has yet to allow a HR this season and has issued just 1 walk in three starts but for their extremely cheap prices I think you can pick and choose between Anthony Santander ($2,900), Trey Mancini ($2,700), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,900), and Rougned Odor ($2,600) for salary relief at certain positions or a full team stack in a GPP. Other DK bats I’m considering include Julio Rodriguez ($3,700), Yulieski Gurriel ($3,800), and Kevin Kiermaier ($2,600).
For pitching I like Pablo Lopez, Chris Bassitt, and Max Fried in that order for expensive options while Chris Paddack and Drew Rasmussen are my favorite cheaper options on both sites and I’ll include Zac Gallen as a decent cheap option for DK only.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn