MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/3/2022
We have a big 11-game slate today and just one major rain spot to monitor and at first glance it’s looking like a lot of very strong pitching so the Coors field game might be even higher-owned than usual as it is one of the weaker pitching games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The biggest rain spot today is PIT/DET looking at steady rain throughout the morning and afternoon but it could taper off towards first pitch so we’ll need to see how the field holds up throughout the day and if they decide on a late start or not. Even if this game gets played both of these offenses are pretty underwhelming so I will likely just avoid this game entirely with so many other games to target better offenses in better weather conditions. CHW/CHC has a “persistent nagging drizzle” that should fade away this evening so this game should play fine or after a short delay but with cold temps and 20mph winds blowing in these won’t be offenses I’ll be targeting today. WAS/COL will have light rain in the general area all night but for now it’s not looking like enough to cause a postponement or anything but it’s something to keep an eye on as this game will be very popular for bats to target.
UPDATE: PIT/DET has been POSTPONED
No other games really have any significant wind while NYY/TOR, CIN/MIL, and SEA/HOU are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHW/CHC are -46.5% while total runs for WAS/COL are +22.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
It’s looking like pretty much every lineup is projected to have the usual guys of late with just a couple guys who are dealing with injuries like Trey Mancini and Joc Pederson while Mike Yastrzemski status is still TBD on the covid list. India and Fraley are on the IL for CIN so they’re out against the righty Woodruff while Luis Urias is off the IL for MIL and could get in the lineup at DH or 3B today.
I mentioned in the opener that there is a lot of really good pitching going today outside of Coors field so COL and WSH are the clear top stacks for me and both teams are pretty affordable on both sites. Outside of Coors I like the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays for stackable offenses with the Brewers and Red Sox just behind them.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to be jamming in Juan Soto ($4,100), C.J. Cron ($4,000) and Charlie Blackmon ($3,800) and then go right back to Coors for some value on the Nationals in Nelson Cruz ($3,000), Cesar Hernandez ($3,000), and Yadiel Hernandez ($2,900). Bell, Joe, Grichuk, and McMahon are all great plays as well but for their prices I’d rather have the four Nats mentioned ahead of Bell and then might pick one or two of those other COL bats depending on positional needs. In order to fit those expensive Coors bats we need more value and really cheap guys that I’m considering include Andrew Benintendi ($2,600), Kolten Wong ($2,600), Rowdy Tellez ($2,400), Stephen Piscotty ($2,000), Chad Pinder ($2,500), Ryan O’Hearn ($2,000), Jose Miranda ($2,000), and Jesse Winker ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Chad Pinder ($2,000) and Jose Miranda ($2,000) are my favorite bare minimum guys to help fit in some Coors bats while Yadiel Hernandez is my top overall bat on DK at just $2,800 likely hitting 5th in Coors and he’s been on fire lately hitting .375 over his last six games. Nelson Cruz is right behind him as a top play on DK as he’s just $3,700 while Juan Soto is also way too cheap at just $4,800. The Rockies are priced up a bit more but I still want Charlie Blackmon ($4,900) and C.J. Cron ($5,300), and I like the price of Ryan McMahon at $4,600 and Cesar Hernandez at $3,500. Other really cheap DK bats that I’m liking include Ryan O’Hearn ($2,200), Edward Olivares ($2,200), Kevin Kiermaier ($2,300), Sam Hilliard ($3,100), and Stephen Piscotty ($2,500).
For pitching Brandon Woodruff and Joe Ryan are my top overall pitchers on both sites while Carlos Rodon and Alek Manoah are high-upside plays but are expensive and going to be hard to fit with Coors bats and for GPP’s I like taking shots on Paul Blackburn, Brad Keller, Dakota Hudson, and Michael Kopech and I have to mention Bruce Zimmermann on DK at just $6,100 who has been very solid this season and will allow you fit pretty much any bats you want.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn