MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/21/2022
Huge 13-game slate on tap today with only a handful of pitchers I trust for such a big slate and with great hitting weather across the country it should be another high scoring day for offenses.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The best hitting weather today is in the CLE/MIN & TOR/CHW games with both seeing ~15mph winds blowing out and temps in the high 80s. SFG/ATL is close behind for best weather with a slight breeze blowing out to center with temps starting in the mid 90’s at first pitch while SEA/OAK, WSH/BAL, and CHC/PIT will all have hot weather in the mid 80’s. NYY/TBR, PHI/TEX, STL/MIL, & NYM/HOU will be in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SEA/OAK are +39.2% while total runs for CHC/PIT are +11.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Rays lost Manuel Margot and Kevin Kiermaier to injuries yesterday and both will land on the IL but I’m not looking to target any Rays against Cortes today. Franmil Reyes, Mitch Garver, and Josh Smith will all come off the IL today with Reyes being the most significant as he’s just $2.3k on FD and $2.8k on DK. Jeff McNeil left yesterday with hamstring tightness so he’s out today with Canha playing left and JD Davis at DH. Yordan Alvarez is back after missing last game with an injury and although Manny Machado may have avoided serious injury with his ankle sprain he’ll probably need a few more games at least to recover. Bryce Harper blister will keep him out another game but Jose Ramirez is back in there after missing a couple games with a thumb injury and Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt are out for rest.
With the great hitting conditions combined with the matchups my favorite stacks today are the Braves, Twins, Pirates, Angels, and Nationals. I especially like the Pirates as their salaries are exceptionally low on both sites and their opponent Swarmer has allowed 10 ER over his last two starts with 7 HR given up. Brieske has been solid in his last three starts but the Red Sox still have one of the highest team totals today and are squarely in play as a stack and although they’re expensive the Yankees are in play as a stack against a Rays bullpen game. The Brewers lost Ashby to the IL and have to start Chi Chi Gonzalez today so the Cardinals are one of my favorite sneaky stacks today along with the Astros against Williams. If you’re doing a ton of GPP teams I’d do a couple Blue Jays and White Sox stacks as well as they could be low-owned with solid pitching on both sides but the weather might be too good to keep all the fly balls in the park.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Pirates value plays as my core with Oneil Cruz and Bligh Madris the first guys I’m locking in with both at minimum price. Bryan Reynolds ($2,900), Jack Suwinski ($2,500), and Daniel Vogelbach ($2,500) are all too cheap as well and I’ll likely use at least one of them based on positional needs. A couple cheap leadoff guys I really like are Jarren Duran ($2,700) and Taylor Ward ($2,900) with both coming off huge games and if Trent Grisham continues to hit leadoff in Machado’s absence he’s a fine value play at just $2,300. With all this value I’m finding it pretty easy to fit in at least 4 big bats with my favorite being Rafael Devers ($4,200), Mike Trout ($4,300), Juan Soto ($4,200), and Pete Alonso ($3,900). More FD bats I like for the price include Javier Baez ($2,700), Matt Olson ($3,100), Franmil Reyes ($2,300), Max Kepler ($2,500), Juan Yepez ($2,300), Hunter Dozier ($2,300), and Ramon Laureano ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings I’m again going straight to the Pirates for value with Jack Suwinski ($2,100), Oneil Cruz ($2,000), and Bligh Madris ($2,000) who all have big upside and will allow you to do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup and if you need more PIT value Daniel Vogelbach is just $2,500. If you don’t want to go with Pirates for value there’s plenty of other ways to go with guys like Josh Bell ($3,500), Jarren Duran ($3,300), Alex Verdugo ($3,300), Eric Haase ($3,200), Alex Kirilloff ($2,200), Franmil Reyes ($2,800), Hunter Dozier ($3,000), Jared Walsh ($3,500), and Trent Grisham ($3,300).
Nestor Cortes should be popular today with just 2 ER allowed over two starts vs. the Rays this season but my favorite SP for the price today is Spencer Strider under $8.8k on both sites. With 19 strikeouts over his last two starts and just 2 ER along with his pitch count being stretched over 100 in his last start the upside is just too great for me to fade and the Giants aren’t exactly the scariest of matchups. I also really like Sean Manaea as a GPP play along with Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn