MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/22/22
We have a big 13-game slate to end the week and get us back in to the swing of things for the 2nd half of the season with great weather across the country.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
MIA/PIT, SDP/NYM, and LAA/ATL all have low chances of a light shower causing a delay but are more likely to play fine. We have a few games looking at temps in the 90s in NYY/BAL, CHC/PHI, TOR/BOS, and TBR/KCR while a few others others will be in the 80s in SDP/NYM, LAA/ATL, and CLE/CHW. The dome games today are HOU/SEA, WSH/ARI, and COL/MIL.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHC/PHI are +38.5% while total runs for TBR/KCR are +15.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Kyle Lewis is on track to return tonight for SEA and although he’s facing a solid pitcher in Urquidy he is still minimum price on FD and just $2.9k on DK. The White Sox will get back both Yasmani Grandal and Eloy Jimenez but Luis Robert will remain out and the Royals will get back a bunch of unvaccinated guys who had to sit out the Toronto series. Mike Trout landed on the IL just before the break so Jo Adell will continue to start for him along with Jeter Downs for Trevor Story who is still on the IL with his hand injury. George Springer is getting an extra day to rest his elbow so Tapia will hit leadoff for TOR and JD Martinez was scratched so Refsnyder will DH and hit 2nd.
The Yankees and Brewers are my top stacks today while the Phillies and White Sox are close behind them hitting in excellent weather with team totals around 4.7 currently. After those four I’d consider ARI, OAK, HOU, and TBR for GPP stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with the Brewers for value with Christian Yelich the first guy I’m locking in at just $3,100. Rowdy Tellez ($2,700) and Kolten Wong ($2,500) are my next favorite MIL bats for the price and if you want the full stack I’d go with either Willy Adames ($3,500) or Andrew McCutchen ($2,700). At 2B I’m loving the price of Brandon Lowe ($2,900) with 9 hits in his last 16 ABs and keeping the trend of hot bats Yoan Moncada is 8 for his last 20 and is only $2,500 making him an easy top value option at 3B. Another bat that is just too cheap to fade for me is Nick Castellanos at $2,500 hitting in great weather with the platoon advantage today and if want more cheap Philly exposure I’d use Rhys Hoskins ($3,100) or JT Realmuto ($3,000). I mentioned ARI as a GPP stack but they have a couple super cheap bats in Carson Kelly ($2,200), Jordan Luplow ($2,200), and Buddy Kennedy ($2,200) all with the platoon advantage against Corbin if you need to fill a last spot or two in your lineup. More value FD bats I like include Josh Donaldson ($2,600), Alec Bohm ($2,700), Andrew Benintendi ($2,600), Eloy Jimenez ($2,300), Seth Brown ($2,300), Hunter Renfroe ($2,900), Jeremy Pena ($2,900), and Alex Bregman ($3,000).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite MIL bats for the price are Christian Yelich ($4,900), Willy Adames ($4,400) and Rowdy Tellez ($3,900) while Wong and McCutchen are still fine options at just over $4k each. The White Sox have a few cheap options in Yoan Moncada ($3,700), Eloy Jimenez ($3,900) and Gavin Sheets ($3,400) while the Diamondbacks have some great value in Carson Kelly ($3,200), Christian Walker ($3,500), Buddy Kennedy ($2,400), and Jordan Luplow ($2,700). Other cheap bats to consider are Josh Lowe ($2,500), Hunter Dozier ($3,200), Matt Vierling ($2,400), Jo Adell ($2,200), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,500), Seth Brown ($2,800), Yermin Mercedes ($2,200), Aledmys Diaz ($3,400), and Kyle Lewis ($2,900).
My top SP on both sites today is Corbin Burnes and I will do everything I can to pair him with Max Scherzer on DK. If you really need extra salary on DK you could go with Darvish, Gausman, Ohtani, or Morton as your SP2 and for under $8k I really like Lucas Giolito and Braxton Garrett while Kyle Gibson is my favorite option under $7k. Back on FD I’d recommend having some exposure to Garrett at just $7,700 in the same matchup against PIT he just dominated in and I don’t mind using him in cash games if you want the almost $4k in savings pivoting from Burnes.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn