MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/4/22
Both sites are including game 2 of the CHC/STL doubleheader so we have an 8-game main slate today and just one rain spot that could affect play.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TBR/DET will have a few slow-moving storms around the ballpark with a delay or late start as a possibility if one lands over the stadium but any delay shouldn’t be long-lived to cause a major problem. HOU/CLE has some thunderstorms that are likely to miss the ballpark but a delay can’t be ruled out if the stadium gets clipped by a storm cluster. WSH/PHI has a pretty good chance of a delay at some point with heavy rain in the area between 8 and 9pm so pitchers do carry some risk in this one but bats should be OK. ATL/NYM and CHC/STL have a low risk of rain but still worth mentioning the chance of delay.
It’s going to be hot in the Midwest and East coast with pretty much every outdoor game looking at temps in the 80s with high humidity with WSH/PHI & BOS/KCR seeing the highest temps while WSH/PHI & ATL/NYM will have the best hitting wind blowing out around 9mph. CHW/TEX is the lone dome game today.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for WSH/PHI are +38.5% while total runs for ATL/NYM are +14.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Luke Voit will make his Nationals debut today along with Brandon Marsh for Philly and Jean Segura will return from the IL which has led Philly to release Gregorius. George Springer has missed the last three games with his elbow injury but will be back in the lineup today at DH with newly acquired Whit Merrifield playing CF and hitting 8th and the White Sox will get Luis Robert back in the lineup today at DH. The Twins remain without Kepler, Kirilloff, and Sano on the IL but the good news is that Byron Buxton will play in b2b games after returning from his knee soreness yesterday and James McCann will return from the IL and start for the Mets today along with Travis d’Arnaud who will return from his stomach illness and start for ATL today.
The Phillies are my top stack today at home in excellent hitting conditions against the low strikeout righty Espino who has allowed 2 HR’s in four of his last six starts. The White Sox are my next favorite stack against the rookie lefty Ragans and close behind them I like the Astros and Red Sox stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m loading up on Philly bats as they are way too cheap for this good of a spot with Nick Castellanos being my favorite play at just $2,500 for value and then Kyle Schwarber is my next must play at $3,500. I will likely go with Rhys Hoskins ($3,100) and Alec Bohm ($2,800) for the full stack but I don’t mind going with Realmuto or Hall instead but overall I’m expecting most cash game lineups to have at least 3-4 Phillies in them and for good reason. On the other side of that game the Nats have a tougher matchup against Syndergaard but I still want to mention Victor Robles ($2,100) and Luis Garcia ($2,400) as a super cheap mini-stack that have been strong value plays for a while now hitting 1st and 2nd. The White Sox have a couple big bats that are looking too cheap with the platoon advantage against a rookie lefty today in Eloy Jimenez ($2,700) and Jose Abreu ($3,300) and I will do my best to get both in my lineup today while Tim Anderson ($3,200), Luis Robert ($3,600), Yoan Moncada ($2,400), and Andrew Vaughn ($3,000) are all in play as well if you need to fill a position. More value bats to consider include Tommy Pham ($2,900), Jaylin Davis ($2,000), Xander Bogaerts ($3,100), Brandon Lowe ($3,000), Yulieski Gurriel ($2,400), Alex Bregman ($3,000), Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Albert Pujols ($2,400), Dylan Carlson ($2,700), Seiya Suzuki ($2,800), and Paul DeJong ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings the Phillies are still my favorite targets with Nick Castellanos ($3,200) my top play and although he’s priced up compared to FD I’ll still try to fit Kyle Schwarber ($5,300) in. The fact that we have to use a catcher on DK makes JT Realmuto ($4,700) my next favorite PHI bat while Rhys Hoskins ($4,000) and Alec Bohm ($3,900) are definitely still in play and Darick Hall ($3,000) is a strong contrarian play to Hoskins at the 1B spot. Victor Robles ($2,300) and Luis Garcia ($3,000) remain very strong value plays along with Yadiel Hernandez ($2,000) at the bare minimum and the White Sox are much more expensive compared to FD but I still really like the price of Eloy Jimenez ($4,300). Other DK bats I like for the price are Yulieski Gurriel ($3,300), Aledmys Diaz ($3,400), Jaylin Davis ($2,200), Paul DeJong ($3,200), Albert Pujols ($2,000), and Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,100).
Justin Verlander is the top SP on both sites while Alek Manoah will likely be my SP2 on DK but I may decide to go cheaper with Syndergaard or Springs if I really need the extra salary.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn