MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/10/22
We have an 8 game main slate on FD and a 9 game main slate on DK as they are including CHW/KCR while FD isn’t. We also have a couple rain spots to monitor in the first games of the night and more big team totals in Coors to navigate.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TOR/BAL has a nasty storm complex moving in around game time and although it shouldn’t last all night it’s still a bit too early to know for sure how heavy and long the rain will be but for now the likely outcome is a late start and play. MIA/PHI will see storms move in during the latter half of the game which could make pitchers risky here but later models could change the timing and severity of the rain so make sure to check for updates on this game and the TOR/BAL one too.
As if Coors field needed more reason to target bats it’s going to be 90 degrees with winds blowing out to left at 11mph at first pitch while TOR/BAL, MIA/PHI, CLE/DET, and CHW/KCR will all be in the 80s with high humidity. ATL/BOS & MIN/LAD will be in the 70s and today’s dome games are PIT/ARI and TEX/HOU.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for STL/COL are +27.9% while total runs for MIA/PHI are +8.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Orlando Arcia landed on the IL yesterday so Ehire Adrianza should handle most of the 2B time for ATL now along with just promoted Vaughn Grissom and Eric Hosmer will likely need at least today off after fouling a ball off his knee and exiting early yesterday so look for Bobby Dalbec to start at 1B. The Tigers are calling up the lefty outfielder Kerry Carpenter for his MLB debut today and he will start at DH and hit 6th tonight and the Twins are giving Byron Buxton the day off with Tim Beckham taking the DH spot.
For stacks we have to start with STL/COL that just saw 21 runs in yesterday’s game and today we have some of the best hitting conditions of any game this season and although Quintana and Freeland have been solid over their last few starts I will be looking to stack righties on both sides of this game. Outside of Coors the Braves are my next favorite stack currently with a team total over 5 and the Blue Jays are right behind them with a team total around 5 against the righty Kremer. CLE, HOU, and LAD are other stacks I’d consider for GPPs and any stack outside of Coors should be pretty low-owned today.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m fitting as many STL & COL bats as I can starting with Paul DeJong ($2,800), Albert Pujols ($2,800), Dylan Carlson ($3,100), Elehirus Montero ($2,600), Jose Iglesias ($3,200), and Elias Diaz ($2,800) as the value options and in the next tier we have Brendan Rodgers ($3,500), Randal Grichuk ($3,700), and Tyler ONeill ($3,500) and finally for expensive options I’m ranking them in priority Nolan Arenado ($4,300), CJ Cron ($4,100), and Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500). We obviously can’t have every bat we want in this game so I will likely go with 6-7 bats from the value and mid-tier price range as I want a $10k+ pitcher in my cash build and then I’ll fill the remaining spots with a couple other value bats from other offenses I like today. The value bats that I will consider in those spots include Alejandro Kirk ($2,800), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,900), Steven Kwan ($2,700), Michael Chavis ($2,200), Eddie Rosario ($2,300), Max Muncy ($2,700), and Carlos Correa ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings the Cardinals have a couple min price bats in Albert Pujols ($2,000) and Yadier Molina ($2,100) that will really help you fit other expensive bats or a couple top pitchers and if you want a likely lower-owned 1B bat for the same price I’d strongly consider Michael Chavis ($2,000) who just homered twice yesterday or even Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,100) who has homered in b2b games. I love the value of Paul DeJong ($3,400) and Elehuris Montero ($2,700) at the SS and 3B positions and at 2B I will be on Brendan Rodgers for $4,800. I’m still deciding how to attack the OF spots as we have great options in Dylan Carlson ($4,000), Tyler ONeill ($4,800), and Randal Grichuk ($4,100) but there are bats from other teams I also love especially Ronald Acuna ($4,900) and Kyle Tucker ($4,400) so I might differentiate myself from a lot of the field and target non-Coors OF bats today.
Justin Verlander is my SP1 on both sites pitching at home against the Rangers who currently have a team total under 2.5 and I will do my best on DK to fit in Sandy Alcantara as my SP2 but if you want to go cheaper I still like Syndergaard, Berrios, and Bumgarner and for extreme value I think Kris Bubic is a fine option for $5.5k that will really let you stack expensive bats.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn