MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/6/22
12 games on tap today with great weather across the country and one game PPD already.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat. We are always looking to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
MIN/NYY has been postponed while TOR/BAL could see some lighter rain but for now it’s looking like it will hold East of the stadium and play fine.
The warmest game just happens to be in Coors with temps starting in the 90s and staying in the 80s for most of the game. DET/LAA, ATL/OAK, CLE/KC, and SF/LAD are all looking at temps in the 80s with slight breezes blowing out. ARI/SD, WSH/STL, CIN/CHC, and TOR/BAL will be in the 70s and today’s dome games are CHW/SEA and TEX/HOU.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on today’s weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIL/COL are +9% while total runs for CIN/CHC are -7.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Yoan Moncada came off the IL yesterday and should be in the White Sox lineup today along with Jorge Alfaro for the Padres but Brandon Drury will be out for about a week after landing on the 7-day concussion IL. Ramon Laureano is also expected to come off the IL today for the A’s but we won’t see Austin Slater or Gavin Lux in the final game of the night as Slater is on the IL and Lux has been confirmed out for this series and Willson Contreras finally landed on the IL after missing a bunch of games. Jose Iglesias is also now on the IL so Trejo should get most of the SS starts and Wil Myers is back in the lineup after missing time with neck stiffness.
The Brewers are far and away my favorite stack today hitting in great weather in Coors Field against the mediocre righty Kuhl. Kuhl has allowed 3+ ER in each of his last eight starts including 13 HR allowed over that span. After MIL, I like the Angels, Orioles, Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros, and Braves for stack options today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for today’s confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel, I’m going to full stack the Brewers with Rowdy Tellez my top overall play at just $3,100. Christian Yelich ($3,600) and Kolten Wong ($3,500) are my next targets with the platoon advantage and pretty cheap prices for this good of a spot. Choosing between Willy Adames ($3,800) and Hunter Renfroe ($4,200) for the last piece in the stack will come down to salary available and positional needs.
The Orioles continue to remain too cheap with Cedric Mullins their most expensive bat at just $3,100. It’s pretty tempting to just go with four Brewers and four Orioles in cash games and call it a day as Adley Rutschman ($2,800), Anthony Santander ($3,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,000), and Gunnar Henderson ($2,800) are all excellent plays who are way too cheap hitting at home against the righty White who has allowed 13 ER over his last two starts.
Other value bats I like today include Taylor Ward ($2,900), Matt Duffy ($2,000), Keston Hiura ($3,200), Jace Peterson ($2,600), Lane Thomas ($2,400), Brendan Donovan ($2,400), Amed Rosario ($2,400), Oscar Gonzalez ($2,300), Ramon Urias ($2,500), Jurickson Profar ($2,400), Lewis Brinson ($2,000), JD Davis ($2,200), and Max Muncy ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings, the Brewers are egregiously mispriced with none of their bats priced above $4.5k except for Willy Adames at $5,500. I’d expect almost every cash game lineup to have Christian Yelich ($4,400), Rowdy Tellez ($4,200), Hunter Renfroe ($4,500), and Kolten Wong ($3,700) in it at the minimum and although Adames is expensive he should still be very popular.
The Orioles are priced correctly for the most part with how they’ve been hitting, but I still really like the values of Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900) and Gunnar Henderson ($3,300). Speaking of value, I like the prices of Lars Nootbaar ($3,300), Brendan Donovan ($2,800), Lane Thomas ($2,300), Oscar Gonzalez ($3,100), Taylor Ward ($3,200), Matt Duffy ($2,100), Ramon Urias ($3,100), Keston Hiura ($2,900), Jace Peterson ($3,300), Elvis Andrus ($2,700), and Lewis Brinson ($2,800) for options to fill in any positions that don’t include a Brewers bat.
I’m between Framber Valdez and Shane Bieber for my SP1. Valdez has dominated the Rangers this season with just three earned runs over four starts against them, while Bieber is coming off two of his best starts of the year combining for 20 strikeouts. Other pitchers I like for GPPs are Woodruff, Gilbert, Musgrove, Kelly, Wright, and Anderson.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based on the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn