MLB GPP vs. H2H Plays June 13
MLB Picks for 50/50s/Double-ups/Head-to-Head VS GPPs
In this article I am going to give you my MLB picks for all game types, including 50/50s/double-ups/head-to-head and GPPs (guaranteed prize pool tournaments). I will break them down into two parts: Part 1 – 50/50s/Double-ups/Head-to-Head (AKA cash games), Part 2 – GPPs.
Part 1 – 50/50s/Double-ups/Head-to-Head (AKA Cash Games)
When playing 50-50s/double-ups or head-to-head, you want guaranteed points. This is not where you roll the dice on all-or-nothing players. The idea is to simply produce a solid, well balanced team. It may not be explosive, but it doesn’t matter whether you finish in first place or not, you just need to cash.
STARTING PITCHERS
Clayton Kershaw – After getting roughed up in Chase Field VS the D-Backs (1.2 IP, 7 ER) on May 17, Kershaw has been outstanding. In his 4 starts since, Kershaw has thrown 26 innings, and allowed 6 ER (2.30 ERA) and only 16 total hits (0.76 WHIP), while striking out 36 batters. Kershaw has a high floor and massive upside, making him my top pitcher tonight.
Felix Hernandez – King Felix put on a clinic in his last start VS the Rays (7 shutout innings with 15 Ks) and will look to keep it going tonight VS Texas. Hernandez has been dominant in his last 5 starts and is as consistent as they come. Felix is always a safe bet to go deep into games and have a bunch of punch-outs, making him a great cash game play tonight.
Other Pitchers I like – Sonny Gray, Jordan Zimmermann
CATCHER
Buster Posey – Posey is going to be a very popular play tonight, and for good reason. Posey has been hot at the dish with hits in 9/10 games and has crushed LHP throughout his career. Additionally, Posey is hitting .304 off of De La Rosa in this career, with a .414 OBP in 23 at-bats.
John Jaso – It’s Jaso’s turn to make the list today as the Oakland A’s will face RHP David Phelps. Jaso has crushed RHP all season (.288 BA, .371 OBP with 6 homers) and makes a great cash game value play tonight.
Other Catchers I like – Victor Martinez (on sites he qualifies), Dioner Navarro
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz – Coming off a big game last night, Ortiz is my top 1B again tonight. Big Papi is always a great cash game play when facing a RHP in Fenway Park. Masterson struggles mightily VS LHB (.293 BAA, .377 OBPA) and I expect Ortiz to have another good game tonight.
Joey Votto – Votto is back from the DL and is already hitting, going 2/3 with a double and a walk in yesterday’s contest. Votto has been an on-base machine his entire career and has hit Garza well. Votto has a moderate price across the industry and makes a solid cash game play tonight.
Other First Basemen I like – Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Adam Lind
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano – Cano continues to rake VS Major League pitching and has a great match-up tonight VS Nick Tepesch. LHB are hitting .318 off of Tepesch with a .403 OBP. Look for Cano to stay hot and have a multi-hit game tonight.
Chase Utley – Utley is crushing RHP this season (.325 BA, .392 OBP) and will face RHP Jake Arrieta tonight. Arrieta has a .302 BAA VS LHB with a .348 OBPA. Look for Utley to exploit that tonight and rip off a couple of hits.
Other Second Basemen I like – Dee Gordon, Scooter Gennett
THIRD BASE
3B is not real deep tonight with most of the studs having tough match-ups. I suggest you get some salary relief with your 3B tonight and load up elsewhere
Kyle Seager – Nick Tepesch has really struggled this season (4.91 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and I mentioned earlier that LHB have hit him hard. Seager’s price is depressed across the industry and he is in a great spot tonight.
Other Third Basemen I like – Josh Donaldson, Pablo Sandoval
SHORTSTOP
Jose Reyes – Reyes and the Blue Jays have been very quiet the last few games, but a match-up VS Ubaldo Jimenez is a great way to fire up the offense again. Jimenez has been smashed in 3 of his last 5 starts and has a 7.04 ERA at Camden Yards.
Jimmy Rollins – Rollins has stayed productive as he ages (8 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers, 10 SBs with a .347 OBP) and has hits in 9/10 games. I mentioned earlier that Arrieta struggles VS LHB (.302 BAA with a .348 OBPA) and I think Rollins makes a solid value play at SS tonight.
Other Shortstops I like – Jed Lowrie
OUTFIELDERS
Giancarlo Stanton – I think that Stanton is the scariest hitter for a LHP to face in all of baseball. He has insane power and has demolished lefties all season (.354 BA, .456 OBP, 1.102 OPS). Stanton has also smashed Locke in a small sample size (3/5 .600 BA, .714 OBP with a bomb). Stanton may get pitched around in an at-bat or two, but he is basically guaranteed points tonight.
Hunter Pence – Pence is reasonably priced across most sites and has a nice match-up VS LHP Jorge De La Rosa tonight. Pence is crushing LHP this season (.333 BA, .418 OBP) and has hit De La Rosa very well (5/19, .364 OBP with 2 doubles and 2 homers) in his career.
Melky Cabrera – Cabrera has been a hit machine all season, with 85 hits in 67 games. He is hitting .315 VS RHP with a .351 OBP and makes a great cash game play tonight VS Jimenez.
Other Outfielders I like – Yasiel Puig, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley, Coco Crisp, Adam Eaton
Part 2 – GPPs
GPPs are a whole new ball game. You need guys to have huge nights. GPP tournaments are all about upside. All-or-nothing players can become GPP gold, while value players are just as important as your star players.
STARTING PITCHERS
Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has been terrific at home this season, posting a 2.49 ERA with 39 Ks in 47 IP. Marlins Park is extremely pitcher friendly and the Pirates are hitting just .215 as a team on the road. Eovaldi has big game upside and I think he is in a great spot tonight.
Tim Lincecum – Lincecum has been a completely different pitcher at home (3.86 ERA, .251 BAA, with 45 Ks in 44.1 IP) than he has been on the road (6.84 ERA, .313 BAA) this season. The Freak still has big game upside with his massive K potential, and this banged up Rockies team does not hit well (.239 BA) on the road.
Other Pitchers I like – John Lackey, Homer Bailey, Alex Cobb
CATCHER
Salvador Perez – Perez is swinging a hot stick with hits in 9/10 games and is a notorious lefty killer. Mostly all of Perez’s offense has come off of LHP this season, and he has hit Quintana quite well (7/22 .318 BA, .346 OBP with 3 doubles and 2 homeruns) in his career.
A.J. Pierzynski – Pierzynski has crushed RHP this season with a .313 BA and a .348 OBP. In his career VS Masterson, Pierzynski is hitting .368 (.390 OBP) off of him in 38 at-bats. A.J. still has big game upside and makes a great GPP value play tonight.
Other Catchers I like – Evan Gattis, Devin Mesoraco, Alex Avila
FIRST BASE
Brandon Moss – Moss has immense power and has crushed RHP throughout his career. David Phelps has really struggled (4.88 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) this season and Moss has huge GPP upside.
Chris Davis – Like Brandon Moss, Davis also has immense power and mashes VS RHP. Drew Hutchison has struggled of late allowing 10 ER in his last 3 starts combined. Crush Davis has a 3 homer game under his belt already this season and could hit one or more out tonight.
Other First Basemen I like – Jose Abreu, Mike Morse, Adam Dunn, Ike Davis
SECOND BASE
Brian Dozier – Dozier may never hit for a high BA (.243 this season), but he makes up for it with a .353 OBP. He contributes in many categories (11 doubles, 14 HRs and 14 SBs) and has crushed LHP throughout his career. Dozier flies under the radar most nights and makes a sneaky GPP play tonight VS Smyly.
Rickie Weeks – Weeks rarely starts these days, but was hitting lead off last night. He is extremely inexpensive and has absolutely owned Bailey (14/27 .519 BA, .606 OBP with 2 doubles and 2 homers) in his career. Weeks makes a great “Boom-Or-Bust” option at 2B tonight.
Other Second Basemen I like – Ian Kinsler, Omar Infante
THIRD BASE
Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez has finally started to heat up with hits in 9/10 games, including 5 multi-hit games. The power is not where we want it to be, but he does have 2 doubles, a triple and a homer in that 10 game stretch. Eovaldi really struggles VS LHB (.304 BAA, .345 OBPA) and Alvarez has multi-homer upside regardless of what park he is playing in.
Trevor Plouffe – Plouffe’s production has slowed down recently and his salary has dropped as a result. Plouffe is a dangerous hitter VS LHP and Smyly is allowing a .300 BAA and a .367 OBPA VS RHB. Plouffe makes a tremendous GPP value play at 3B tonight.
Other Third Basemen I like – Brock Holt, David Freese
SHORTSTOP
Ian Desmond – Desmond is hot, with hits in 8/10 games. He has also found his power stroke during that 10 game stretch, with 2 doubles, a triple and 3 homeruns. The match-up VS Lynn is not ideal, but Desmond has hit him well (3/6, .500 BA, .625 OBP), in a small sample size.
Starlin Castro – Castro has been solid (18 doubles & 8 HRs) hitting in the middle of the Cubs order this season. Roberto Hernandez has reverse splits and is allowing RHB to hit .289 off of him with a .350 OBP. Castro makes a nice value/punt play at SS tonight.
Other Shortstops I like – Troy Tulowitzki, Danny Santana, Brad Miller
OUTFIELDERS
Ryan Braun – At first glance this does not look like a good play at all. Braun is expensive and Bailey is a solid pitcher, who has pitched great in his last 3 starts. However, Braun has as much upside as anyone in baseball and because of what I mentioned earlier will not be highly owned, which is a good thing in your GPPs. Bailey has struggled bad on the road this year (5.35 ERA) and has not had much success in Miller Park in his career (4.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). Braun has also smashed Bailey in his career, going 9/25 (.360 BA, .407 OBP) with 4 doubles and a homer. I think Braun makes a sneaky GPP play tonight.
Josh Hamilton – Hamilton is on fire with 11 hits in his last 6 games. Hamilton has massive GPP upside and has owned Harang (6/9, .667 BA with a double, triple and 2 homeruns), in a small sample size.
Jay Bruce – Bruce’s bat has started to wake up with hits in 7/10 games. Having Votto back in that lineup will be huge for Bruce and his RBI opportunities. Bruce has multi-homer upside and has hit Garza well (6/16, .375 BA, .412 OBP with 2 doubles and 2 homers) in his career.
Other Outfielders I like – Jose Bautista, Josh Willingham, Seth Smith, Khris Davis, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, Domonic Brown, Logan Morrison