MLB Grind Down: Friday/Saturday
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Toronto at Kansas City – Friday, 8:07 PM EST
| Toronto | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Marco Estrada |  | Edinson Volquez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-115) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.672 | 0.293 | 17.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.707 | 0.311 | 18.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.706 | 0.310 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.296 | 17.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada : FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 325.0 — SIERA: 4.36 — ERA: 3.71 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 5.83 — ERA: 3.09 — K%: 12.2% — BB%: 8.9% — HR/9: 1.4
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: After David Price made a relief appearance in Game 4 against the Rangers, Marcus Stroman got the start in the Blue Jays’ Game 5 victory. That leaves Estrada as the Blue Jays’ starting pitcher for Game 1 against the Astros. He pitched well in his last start against the Rangers, allowing a single run in six and one-third innings. He draws a difficult matchup against the Royals. While this game will take place in the pitcher-friendly Kaufmann Stadium, the Royals were ranked eighth in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. I will be leaning toward the Cubs/Mets game for pitching options.
Pitcher Rating: 48.2
Edinson Volquez : FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 391.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — ERA: 3.31 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 5.18 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 1.4
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Volquez struck out eight batters in five and two-third innings against the Astros in Game 3. He has not been in great form in the second half of the season and he has to face the best offense in baseball to open the ALCS. During the regular season, the Blue Jays were ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. There is more risk than potential reward here, as the Blue Jays have the highest team total in this two-game slate.
Pitcher Rating: 58.8
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays are coming off of a crazy win against the Rangers. That seventh inning was by far the most interesting hour of baseball that I can remember. Toronto draws a favorable matchup against Edinson Volquez, who has allowed a .311 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .296 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1061 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 897 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 928 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1080 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Russell Martin : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 132
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 398 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Kansas City
The Royals have the best matchup on the board in this two-game slate. Since the start of the 2014 season, Marco Estrada has allowed a .293 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .310 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The sample size is small, but the current Royals’ roster has had decent success against Estrada in the past. The Royals also offer good value, as their hitters are very affordable, especially on FanDuel.
Elite Plays:
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46
Salvador Perez : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 834 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 103
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets – Saturday 8:05 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | ||||||||
 | Jon Lester |  | Matt Harvey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-120) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.678 | 0.298 | 26.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.676 | 0.295 | 25.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.638 | 0.282 | 24.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.544 | 0.237 | 24.30% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jon Lester : FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 424.2 — SIERA: 3.15 — ERA: 2.88 — K%: 24.9% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 42.0 — SIERA: 2.97 — ERA: 2.36 — K%: 26.6% — BB%: 4.6% — HR/9: 0.4
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Lester pitched well against the Cardinals in the NLDS, striking out nine batters over seven and one-third innings. He will be on the bump for the Cubs, as they open this series against the Mets. On the season, the Mets didn’t have great numbers against left-handed pitching, but they were obviously a much better offense after the All-Star break. Lester provides good upside at his price, but the Cubs are small underdogs in this one. I have him ranked as the second-best pitching option in this two-game slate, right behind Matt Harvey.
Pitcher Rating: 81.9
Matt Harvey : FD: $10,100 — DK: $11,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 183.1 — SIERA: 3.33 — ERA: 2.80 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.1 — SIERA: 2.81 — ERA: 5.01 — K%: 27.7% — BB%: 4.0% — HR/9: 0.4
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: It appears that the innings limit controversy is behind us, as Harvey will start Game 1 of the NLCS. Harvey pitched well down the stretch of the regular season and he draws a favorable matchup against the Cubs, who were ranked 14th in team wOBA and 30th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Harvey is a small favorite at home and while he is likely to max out at around 100 pitches, he is still the premier pitching option in this slate.
Pitcher Rating: 90.9
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have the lowest team total on the board. They are facing an ace in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While there isn’t a ton to love about this matchup, the Cubs do have some momentum coming into this game. Dexter Fowler is a borderline elite play on FanDuel, as he is still priced at a very affordable $2,800. The rest of the hitters in this lineup are secondary plays against Matt Harvey, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92
Starlin Castro : FD: $3,400 — DK: $2,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 882 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 99
Last 30 Days: PA: 89 — wOBA: 0.453 — ISO: 0.293 — wRC+: 192
New York Mets
On paper, this is not a great matchup for the Mets. Jon Lester has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons. The good news is that Lester does not hold runners well. Look for the Mets to be very aggressive on the base paths, which puts any hitter with speed in play in this matchup. Game 5 hero, Daniel Murphy, leads the way here, as he actually has a very good track record against left-handed pitching.
Elite Plays:
Daniel Murphy : FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 291 — wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 89
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 131
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 308 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 90
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.295 — wRC+: 144
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 318 — wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 92
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 155