MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 19th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-19 21:48:00

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Toronto at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET

Toronto					Seattle
			Marco Estrada					Taijuan Walker
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -102					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.275	10	28.4%	22.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.301	15	30.2%	22.3%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.301	12	37.4%	22.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.339	9	27.6%	19.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		31.0	FPPG:		16.7
					Pitcher Rating:		51.6	Pitcher Rank:		16
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	91.6	4.87	6.93	20.0%	10.4%	10.9%	31.2%	45.5%	32.9%
2016	26	97.5	4.37	3.78	22.5%	8.9%	10.9%	33.7%	47.1%	32.9%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.35 — K%: 20.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.52 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280

Estrada has not been sharp in his last five starts, posting a 6.93 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 20% and a walk rate of 10.4%. We’ve sort of been waiting for him to regress and it finally seems to be happening. Tonight he draws a difficult matchup against the Mariners, who are ranked 11th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Taijuan Walker
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		25.7	FPPG:		13.6
					Pitcher Rating:		62.5	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	93.4	4.19	4.88	19.0%	5.0%	12.2%	44.8%	40.2%	32.2%
2016	22	91.3	4.02	4.28	20.7%	5.2%	10.1%	43.4%	38.9%	28.8%
2015	29	90.7	3.69	4.56	22.2%	5.7%	10.0%	38.6%	39.0%	30.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.43 — K%: 24.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.312
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.47 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318

Walker hasn’t been great in this last five outings, posting a 4.88 ERA with a strikeout rate of 19% He is a fly ball pitcher that has struggled with the long ball throughout his career. There isn’t enough upside here to make up for the risk in facing one of the best offenses in baseball. On the season, the Blue Jays are ranked eighth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into tonight’s game with a slightly below-average run projection, but this is a decent spot overall. They hit right-handed pitching well as a team and Taijuan Walker is a reverse-splits pitcher. He has allowed a .339 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. He has also allowed 24 home runs.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.185 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (24 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.75 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.23 (14 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

The Mariners are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching and they draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Marco Estrada tonight at home. Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher that gives up a decent amount of hard contact. That is typically a good recipe for home runs.

• Mariners Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (7 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.325 (14 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (11 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (8 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.75 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.27 (13 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Adam Lind

Stackability – YELLOW

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