MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-20 03:16:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Chicago White Sox					Kansas City
			Carlos Rodon					Yordano Ventura
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -127					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.260	2	30.1%	27.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.327	13	32.1%	16.6%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.349	18	27.4%	21.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.319	8	30.0%	17.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Carlos Rodon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:
					FPPG:		30.2	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		62.7	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	99.8	3.87	3.23	22.3%	6.2%	10.8%	43.8%	32.6%	26.4%
2016	25	99.8	4.03	4.04	22.3%	7.3%	9.8%	43.8%	34.7%	27.9%
2015	23	106.1	4.20	3.75	22.9%	11.7%	10.1%	46.8%	29.8%	28.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.35 — K%: 23.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.324
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.46 — K%: 21.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.331

Rodon has been sharp in his last five starts, posting a 3.23 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.3%. He has pitched well on the road in his career and he sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Kauffman Stadium. The biggest issue with Rodon is his inability to get right-handed hitters out. He has allowed a .349 wOBA to righties this season and the Royals’ projected lineup has eight batters that can hit from the right side. As an underdog on the road, Rodon is an easy fade in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Yordano Ventura
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:
					FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		63.7	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	99.6	5.33	4.23	13.1%	11.5%	8.2%	53.6%	24.7%	20.6%
2016	29	95.0	4.80	4.42	17.1%	9.9%	8.8%	50.5%	30.5%	31.0%
2015	28	94.7	3.69	4.08	22.5%	8.4%	10.4%	52.2%	27.2%	29.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.14 — K%: 21.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.34 — K%: 18.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.324

Ventura has really struggled in his last five starts, posting a 5.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13.1% and a walk rate of 11.5%. He is a ground ball pitcher that tends to limit the hard contact against him, but when he isn’t striking batters out, a lot of those ground balls are going for hits. He is a small favorite today against the White Sox, but his his current form is more than enough justification to fade him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they come into the game with the eighth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. They draw an exploitable matchup against Yordano Ventura, who has allowed a .319+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Jose Abreu is the one batter that stands out here, as he has a .442 wOBA over the last 14 days.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.19 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (18 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.348	0.164	32.2%	0.347	OF	$3,100
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.287	0.121	30.0%	0.268	SS	$2,900
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.355	0.162	31.4%	0.442	1B	$3,400
4	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.334	0.141	28.8%	0.373	OF	$3,000
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.316	0.222	31.0%	0.279	3B	$3,700
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.318	0.153	34.6%	0.292	C	$2,500
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.300	0.129	33.7%	0.346	OF	$3,200
8	Carlos Sanchez	SWITCH	0.255	0.133	23.3%	0.289	2B	$2,600
9	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.000
	Team Averages	—	0.279	0.136	27.2%	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City

The Royals are ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching. They have all but been eliminated from the postseason, as they find themselves five games back of the last wildcard spot. This is a team that we are usually bearish on in DFS, but they draw a decent matchup against Carlos Rodon, who has allowed a .349 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (17 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.306 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.2% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.78 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.14 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (8 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.294	0.099	10.7%	0.263	OF	$2,200
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.379	0.138	46.9%	0.347	2B	$2,900
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.292	0.163	30.6%	0.355	1B	$2,900
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.359	0.200	35.2%	0.448	1B	$3,100
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.324	0.223	29.9%	0.209	C	$3,200
6	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.249	0.084	26.8%	0.386	SS	$2,800
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.358	0.157	33.3%	0.160	3B	$2,800
8	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.530	0.250	100.0%	0.333
9	Christian Colon	RIGHT	0.267	0.089	26.5%	0.273	2B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.156	37.8%	0.308	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Boston					Baltimore
			Rick Porcello					Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -123					9.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.259	8	33.4%	21.6%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.319	8	27.1%	19.2%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.292	13	28.6%	20.0%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.342	8	28.0%	25.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$9,700
					FPPG:		37.9	FPPG:		20.1
					Pitcher Rating:		69.4	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	6	109.5	3.44	2.47	23.0%	1.8%	9.4%	42.3%	40.7%	30.1%
2016	30	103.4	3.80	3.12	20.8%	3.6%	7.8%	44.7%	36.9%	31.1%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.49 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.39 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316

Porcello has been terrific over the last month of play, boasting a 2.47 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He always has great command and he has a much lower ERA than what you would expect from a pitcher in the American League East. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked third in team wOBA and 20th in team K% against right-handed pitching. This is an important series for both teams, as Boston currently holds a three-game lead over Baltimore in the division.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Dylan Bundy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		16.6	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		48.9	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	93.4	5.09	5.47	22.6%	14.8%	11.1%	33.8%	42.3%	21.1%
2016	12	91.7	4.21	3.88	22.3%	9.1%	10.6%	35.6%	42.9%	27.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.72 — K%: 22.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.289
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.21 — K%: 22.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.372

Bundy comes into tonight’s game in less than ideal form, posting a 5.09 SIERA with a walk rate of 14.8% in his last five starts. The sledding is only going to get tougher tonight, as he squares off against the best offense in baseball. Bundy is listed as a small underdog at home against the Red Sox in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. He grades out as one of the worst pitching options in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are a better offensive team at home, but there are plenty of reasons to like them tonight in Baltimore. They draw a favorable matchup against rookie Dylan Bundy, who has struggled in his last five starts. Boston comes into the game with the sixth highest run projection in the slate. They also have eight projected starters with at least a 33% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.351 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.353 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.57 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.64 (6 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.363	0.132	33.7%	0.355	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,600
2	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.344	0.151	29.2%	0.308	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,700
3	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.444	0.360	46.5%	0.400	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,500
4	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.383	0.215	33.5%	0.277	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,400
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.344	0.185	37.3%	0.472	1B	$3,700	1B	$5,200
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.336	0.189	36.9%	0.313	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$4,500
7	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.356	0.160	35.3%	0.270	C	$2,600	C	$3,600
8	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.383	0.266	39.5%	0.369	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,100
9	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.416	0.228	33.3%	0.453	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.374	0.210	36.1%	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the top offenses in baseball when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching, but they draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against Rick Porcello. In 2016, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. The good news is that the Orioles get to face him at home and they still have a respectable implied team total.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (3 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.324 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.36 (11 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.351	0.202	31.6%	0.304	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.371	0.117	32.1%	0.359	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.372	0.260	34.9%	0.317	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,200
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.361	0.284	42.6%	0.402	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,800
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.376	0.284	38.6%	0.235	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.341	0.206	29.2%	0.265	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.356	0.273	40.1%	0.316	3B	$3,500	1B	$3,500
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.313	0.181	32.3%	0.346	C	$2,800	C	$3,600
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.315	0.134	32.4%	0.418	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.216	34.9%	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Atlanta					NY Mets
			Aaron Blair					Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -284					7.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.439	6	32.3%	9.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.296	5	31.3%	28.5%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.357	5	28.0%	15.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.256	5	25.3%	30.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Aaron Blair
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,100	Salary:		$4,100
					FPPG:		9.2	FPPG:		2.2
					Pitcher Rating:		32.8	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	1	67.0	4.36	11.25	15.0%	0.0%	9.0%	31.3%	37.5%	43.8%
2016	12	80.3	5.82	8.23	12.4%	11.2%	9.0%	40.5%	37.4%	30.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 8.18 — K%: 10.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.383
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 8.31 — K%: 14.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.422

Blair has been an easy pitcher to pick on this season. In 12 starts, he has a 5.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 12.4% and a walk rate of 11.2%. Of the 22 pitchers that are taking the mound today, he has the lowest pitcher rating by far. He draws a difficult matchup against the Mets, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA over the last month of play. Avoid Blair in both cash games and tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$11,600
					FPPG:		39.7	FPPG:		22.1
					Pitcher Rating:		98.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	101.0	3.41	1.06	27.9%	8.2%	13.7%	53.2%	31.2%	24.4%
2016	28	98.0	2.95	2.43	29.3%	5.7%	14.5%	50.8%	27.1%	27.9%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 28.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.249
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.20 — K%: 28.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306

Syndergaard and the Mets aren’t going to catch the Nationals for the division title, but they look poised to claim one of the wildcard spots. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Braves at home. Syndergaard has been dominant this season with a 2.95 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 29.3%. The Braves have been much better offensively over the last month of play, but I’m willing to overlook that in a home start for Thor. He is the top pitching option in the slate, slightly edging out Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball, ranking second in team wOBA over the last month of play. Unfortunately, they draw one of the most difficult matchups in the slate. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Noah Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. With the lowest run projection in the slate, the Braves’ offense can be avoided tonight.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (25 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.71 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.95 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.44 (22 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.317	0.103	25.6%	0.327	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
2	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.300	0.155	31.9%	0.246	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.410	0.290	43.0%	0.387	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,000
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.319	0.209	36.2%	0.459	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.342	0.159	34.1%	0.425	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.349	0.147	47.3%	0.346	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.341	0.146	24.6%	0.379	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,000
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.291	0.089	32.8%	0.392	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,300
9	Aaron Blair	RIGHT	0.125	0.000	0.0%		P	$4,100	P	$4,100
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.144	30.6%	0.370	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets’ season long numbers are a bit misleading, as their best hitters have been in and out of the lineup all year. Over the last month of play, they have the sixth highest wOBA of any team in baseball. They draw arguably the top matchup in the slate, as they host Aaron Blair and the Braves. In 12 starts this season, Blair has allowed a .439 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (25 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.328 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.93 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.56 (7 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.281	0.127	26.2%	0.324	3B	$2,800	3B/SS	$4,400
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.335	0.204	36.1%	0.366	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,300
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.359	0.254	38.0%	0.296	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700
4	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.335	0.245	38.8%	0.427	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.347	0.265	39.6%	0.190	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
6	T.J. Rivera	RIGHT	0.390	0.167	22.9%	0.439	3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,900
7	James Loney	LEFT	0.311	0.121	30.1%	0.345	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,200
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.297	0.101	31.8%	0.191	C	$2,200	C	$2,800
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.313	0.273	42.9%	0.489	P	$11,000	P	$11,600
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.195	34.0%	0.341	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce, T.J. Rivera

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Washington					Miami
			A.J. Cole					Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -123					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.335	3	23.4%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.320	1	33.9%	18.4%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.307	3	21.2%	26.0%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.341	19	35.7%	19.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
A.J. Cole
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		29.2	FPPG:		15.7
					Pitcher Rating:		73.8	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	98.4	4.00	4.71	25.4%	7.4%	10.8%	31.3%	57.5%	22.5%
2016	5	98.4	4.00	4.71	25.4%	7.4%	10.8%	31.3%	57.5%	22.5%
2015	1	91.0	3.27	5.79	20.5%	2.3%	8.3%	36.4%	36.4%	32.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.40 — K%: 28.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.344
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309

Cole has pitched fairly well in his five starts this season, posting a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4% and a walk rate of 7.4%. He generates a healthy number of swinging strikes and he has done a tremendous job of limiting hard contact (22.5%). He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite against the Marlins, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Everything lines up for Cole, the only concern is that he is a young pitcher that is on the road.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Wei-Yin Chen
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		24.9	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		63.7	Pitcher Rank:		10
2016	19	90.0	4.22	4.99	19.1%	4.9%	9.1%	39.4%	39.1%	35.4%
2015	31	97.1	3.97	3.34	19.3%	5.2%	8.6%	40.5%	39.4%	28.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.10 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.331
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327

Chen has been out for the last two months dealing with an elbow injury. He wasn’t expected to rejoin the rotation this season, but he has made it through a few simulated starts without any issues. He will likely be on a pitch count tonight, as he takes on the Nationals. Even if Chen was completely healthy, he would be an easy fade in daily fantasy. The Nationals are ranked fifth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals have been a top offense against southpaws this season. While Marlins Park isn’t great for home runs, it is a good ballpark for doubles and triples. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Wei-Yin Chen. In terms of his splits, Chen has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (5 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.198 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.7% (11 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.39 (9 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.327	0.060	43.9%	0.515	OF	$4,600	2B/OF	$5,500
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.437	0.289	46.1%	0.226	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,900
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.383	0.219	31.2%	0.450	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,700
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.329	0.226	33.0%	0.216	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.362	0.156	37.2%	0.370	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,500
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.389	0.292	32.6%	0.249	C	$3,500	C	$3,600
7	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.283	0.219	38.1%	0.205	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.293	0.257	41.3%	0.222	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
9	A.J. Cole	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$7,400
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.191	33.7%	0.273	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

The Marlins have been ice cold at the plate, ranking 28th in team wOBA over the last month of play. They come into the game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate, as they square off against rookie A.J. Cole. Even though the Marlins could get to Cole early, it’s hard to justify recommending any of their hitters as elite plays.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (22 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.283 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.130 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (4 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.80 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.11 (17 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.277	0.067	18.6%	0.292	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,600
2	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.317	0.090	23.5%	0.389	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,000
3	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.306	0.098	25.4%	0.278	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,700
4	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.388	0.211	42.0%	0.241	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,600
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.320	0.163	34.2%	0.343	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.360	0.254	37.9%	0.214	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,600
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.357	0.122	30.8%	0.360	C	$2,700	C	$4,300
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.260	0.069	31.0%	0.205	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,400
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.0%		P	$8,200	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.287	0.119	27.0%	0.290	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon (FD), Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Cincinnati					Chicago Cubs
			Tim Adleman					Jason Hammel
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -227					9.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.391	7	31.3%	21.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.350	11	33.7%	20.2%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.322	4	35.4%	11.6%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.284	12	32.3%	21.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Tim Adleman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		20.8	FPPG:		10.1
					Pitcher Rating:		35.2	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	6	84.7	5.25	4.50	13.5%	6.8%	10.0%	35.0%	45.0%	36.9%
2016	10	84.4	5.06	4.21	15.7%	8.3%	9.6%	39.0%	42.9%	33.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.45 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.91 — K%: 14.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.376

Adleman has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 5.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.7% and a hard contact rate of 33.8%. To make matters worse, he is facing a Cubs’ offense in Wrigley Field with a generous wind blowing out to center field. It’s hard to imagine a fly ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate performing well in this spot. Avoid Adleman and stack the hitters against him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jason Hammel
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		26.0	FPPG:		13.3
					Pitcher Rating:		77.5	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	86.6	4.53	8.61	19.8%	7.8%	11.8%	32.5%	42.5%	46.3%
2016	28	88.2	4.29	3.60	20.9%	7.8%	10.0%	42.5%	38.0%	32.9%
2015	31	88.7	3.45	3.74	24.2%	5.6%	10.9%	38.3%	37.2%	32.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.94 — K%: 22.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.287
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.39 — K%: 23.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329

Hammel has had a roller coaster season. We seem to be to the part of the roller coaster that tickles your stomach (the downhill part). In this last five starts, he has an ERA of 8.61 with a strikeout rate of 19.8%. He is only averaging 88.2 pitches per game this season, which limits his upside. Even though he is the largest favorite in the slate, I’m not a huge fan of Hammel tonight. The Reds have the fifth highest team wOBA over the last month of play and as I mentioned above, the wind is blowing out to center field.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest run projection, but I see them as a sneaky contrarian stack. They have quietly been a top five offense over the last month of play and they get to face a struggling pitcher with the wind blowing out to center field. Give a sizable advantage to the left-handed hitters here, as Hammel has allowed a .350 wOBA to lefties this season.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.330 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.79 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (19 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.329	0.069	21.0%	0.321	SS	$3,000	OF/SS	$3,500
2	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.302	0.147	34.8%	0.318	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,100
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.413	0.237	42.6%	0.362	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,900
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.341	0.276	38.9%	0.286	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
5	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.327	0.125	28.7%	0.369	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.321	0.168	35.0%	0.362	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
7	Ivan De Jesus	RIGHT	0.263	0.064	24.8%	0.227	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,500
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.319	0.139	31.7%	0.229	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
9	Tim Adleman	RIGHT	0.124	0.100	0.0%	0.530	P	$5,800	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.147	28.6%	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs come into the game with the third highest implied team total in the slate. All signs point to a Cubs’ stack in all formats, as they draw a favorable matchup against Tim Adleman at home. Adleman is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 33.8% hard contact rate. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, but give a slight edge to the left-handed batters.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.98 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — ( of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.48 (3 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.353	0.162	27.7%	0.356	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.392	0.254	41.7%	0.267	3B	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,800
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.410	0.284	39.5%	0.414	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,400
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.348	0.166	32.9%	0.314	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.313	0.157	29.5%	0.332	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,900
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.278	0.093	26.5%	0.229	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.329	0.181	33.6%	0.217	C	$2,800	C/OF	$3,700
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.292	0.147	27.9%	0.241	SS	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,500
9	Jason Hammel	RIGHT	0.233	0.063	18.8%	0.219	P	$8,400	P	$7,700
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.167	30.9%	0.288	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 19th

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Stackability Rating System:

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce, T.J. Rivera

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon (FD), Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

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