MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 7th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-06-07 14:52:29

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

St. Louis at Toronto

St. Louis					Toronto
Shelby Miller		Vegas Moneyline			Mark Buehrle		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-155)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.777	0.345	19.2%	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.670	0.308	13.6%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.606	0.278	23.1%	SP vs. Right	0.279	0.734	0.325	16.0%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shelby Miller – Shelby enters today’s game on the heels of three straight forgetable starts. His ERA has ballooned over 4.00 and he’s only fanned eight batters over his last 17 innings, so there is room for concern here. He’s struggled on the road in his young career and, until he rights the ship, it’s hard to recommend him as anything more than a GPP option against this Toronto team that ranks 2nd in MLB in OPS versus right handed pitching. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $12000 DS, $13000 DD, $NA DK, $65100 FF, $19000 SS, $NA FTD

• Mark Buehrle – MLB’s only ten game winner will be excited to take on his home town team this afternoon in Toronto. While facing a rather deep Cardinals lineup is no easy task, the Red Birds do rank near the bottom of MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching (.634). Buehrle has only allowed more than two earned runs in just two of his 12 starts and will take the mound with a sparkling 2.10 ERA on the season. His fantasy value is somewhat limited by his lack of strikeouts (5.11 K’s/9) but he’s a fine option on sites that factor WHIP into their scoring. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8300 FD, $15540 DS, $14750 DD, $ DK, $116300 FF, $23800 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Allen Craig – Craig had a pair of hits in last night’s game and owns an .879 OPS versus left-handed pitching during his career. He should find himself batting out of the clean up spot once again today.

• Additional Plays: Oscar Taveras, Yadier Molina

Toronto

Adam Lind – Shelby’s main weakness has been left-handed batters and Lind leads MLB in wOBA vs righties this season (.471). He’s hitting .349 on the season and just wrapped up a month of May that saw him hit .367.

• Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Juan Francisco, Melky Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion

Houston at Minnesota

Houston					Minnesota
Scott Feldman		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Gibson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIN (-128)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.670	0.310	15.3%	SP vs. Left	0.313	0.797	0.357	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.677	0.307	16.4%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.711	0.320	16.8%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Feldman- Feldman was absolutely blasted in his last start; getting knocked around for nine earned runs on eleven hits in just 5.1 innings against Baltimore. After three strong starts to open the season, things have fallen apart for Feldman recently as he owns a 6.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over his last six starts. His strikeout rate of 4.23 K’s/9 certainly doesn’t save the day either. The matchup isn’t terrible, but i’ll definitely be looking elsewhere. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $9852 DS, $9250 DD, $NA DK, $63000 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Kyle Gibson – Gibson sports some drastic home vs road split; 3-1 record with a 1.85 ERA at Target Field and 1-4 with a 7.39 ERA on the road. Luckily for him this afternoon’s game is in Minneapolis. While a date with the Astro’s isn’t quite the fantasy goodness it used to be for opposing pitchers, it’s still a plus matchup for Gibson here. He doesn’t strikeout many batters but is still an option today to fill in your rotation on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $11700 DS, $9700 DD, $ DK, $57000 FF, $14600 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Dexter Fowler – Fowler will turn around and bat from the left-side of the plate in this one and lefties own a .313 batting average off of Gibson in his short career. Over the last four games, Fowler is 7 for 14 with four walks and he finally has bats hitting behind him that can get him home.

• Additional Plays: George Springer

Minnesota

Josh Willingham – Willingham has been on fire recently, posting a 1.275 OPS so far during June. He should have plenty of opportunities to cause damage against Feldman from the cleanup spot.

Additional Plays: Joe Mauer

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Milwaukee					Pittsburgh
Matt Garza		Vegas Moneyline			Edinson Volquez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-105)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.729	0.327	20.8%	SP vs. Left	0.281	0.814	0.360	17.6%
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.663	0.299	20.5%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.735	0.331	17.8%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza – Garza brought his “A” Game to the mound in his last start, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings against the Twins. However, he has struggled mighily on the road this season (6.59 ERA in five starts) and was knocked around by these Pirates earlier this season. He’s capable of pitching a gem any time he toes the rubber, so he’s in play for GPPs but i’ll be passing on him in cash games. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $15905 DS, $15500 DD, $NA DK, $90400 FF, $23300 SS, $13900 FTD

• Edinson Volquez – With three straight solid starts under his belt, Volquez appears to be turning the clock back to the days when he was a very effective starter for the Cincinnati Reds. In those last three starts, he owns a 2.81 ERA and has racked up a strikeout per inning. He’s kept these Brewers bats in check twice already this season and has pitched much better at PNC Park. I still have my doubts though, so I won’t be turning to him today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5600 FD, $11212 DS, $12600 DD, $ DK, $69800 FF, $18000 SS, $10600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez – Gomez is riding a five game hitting streak and is 7 for 21 with three homeruns against Volquez in his career. He’s hitting .362 on the road this year and is aggressive hitting approach makes him a nice GPP target.

• Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett

Pittsburgh

Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez is heating up (eight hits during his current five game hitting streak) and thrives versus right-handed pitching. He’s had success against Garza in the past, going 6 for 16 with a double and a homerun.

• Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker

Miami at Chicago Cubs

Miami					Chicago Cubs
Randy Wolf		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Samardzija		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CHC (-139)			RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.182	0.432	0.206	8.3%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.758	0.336	22.9%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.682	0.295	25.9%	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.642	0.295	22.7%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Randy Wolf- Wolf pitched surprisingly well against the Rays in his last start; allowing just one run on three hits while fanning seven over six innings. He’s an experienced pitcher and has a long track record of success, but it’s hard to imagine that his 87 MPH fastball will continue to miss bats moving forward. The matchup today in Wrigley against a somewhat feeble Cubs offense isn’t intimidating, but he still doesn’t have a high fantasy ceiling. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $9935 DS, $9350 DD, $NA DK, $77000 FF, $16000 SS, $9600 FTD

• Jeff Samardzija – The Shark was blasted in his last start, surrendering 8 runs to the Brewers in just three innings of work. However, he still owns a very impressive 2.54 ERA on the season. He’s pitched extremely well at Wrigley Field this season (1.49 ERA in six starts) but was roughed up by these Marlins they only time he faced them last season. He had a nice GPP upside, but rarely is in position for a “W” so there are safer cash game options. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $19659 DS, $16600 DD, $ DK, $75000 FF, $25200 SS, $13100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Samardzija won’t make things easy for him, but Stanton has become matchup proof. He’s the best pure power hitter in the game which makes him an ideal GPP target.

Additional Plays: None

Chicago Cubs

Justin Ruggiano – Ruggiano was finally activated from the DL last week after a hamstring strain kept him sidelined for over a month. Since the beginning of the 2012 season, Ruggiano owns a .943 OPS against left-handed pitching. He went deep off of Wolf in one of their only two previous at bats against Wolf and is very reasonably priced on nearly every site.

• Additional Plays: Anthony Rizzo

Cleveland at Texas

Cleveland					Texas
Josh Tomlin		Vegas Moneyline			Nick Tepesch		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-119)			RIGHT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.200	0.681	0.298	19.1%	SP vs. Left	0.297	0.840	0.375	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.583	0.259	23.9%	SP vs. Right	0.236	0.645	0.296	21.3%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Josh Tomlin – Tomlin has been a pleasant surprise for the Indians this year, as he owns a 3-2 record with a 3.06 ERA and .96 WHIP through 32.1 innings. With that said, his .225 BABIP is not sustainable and it’s only a matter of time until we see his numbers normalize towards his 4.76 career ERA. While this Rangers lineup lacks some of the punch it’s had in the past, this is still not a fantastic matchup for Tomlin and I’m not expecting a great performance. Rating = 4

Salaries: $4900 FD, $10359 DS, $12250 DD, $NA DK, $91800 FF, $22600 SS, $9500 FTD

• Nick Tepesch – Tepesch was yanked after just two innings against the Nationals in his last start, but he had pitched admirably in the three starts prior to that this season. He was knocked around by the Indians the only time he faced them last season and has struggled so far at Rangers Ballpark in his career (5.37 home ERA). He’s shown flashes of quality stuff and has a decent strikeout rate, which makes him a potential GPP target but there are safer options for use in cash games. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $4500 FD, $12220 DS, $11300 DD, $ DK, $59800 FF, $18900 SS, $9500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis – Lefties have battered Tepesch during his young career and Kipnis is still way underpriced on several sites. He’s finally showing some life at the plate and already owns a homerun off of Tepesch (2 for 3)

• Additional Plays: Michael Bourn, Michael Brantley

Texas

Adrian Beltre – He’s a notoriously streaky hitter and is heating up, with seven hits and three homeruns over the last four games. I doubt he’ll be fooled by the soft tossing Tomlin who he’s 1 for 3 with a homerun against.

Additional Plays: Shin-Soo Choo

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2