MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 26th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Carlos Rodon |  | Danny Salazar | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-170) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.208 | 0.592 | 0.274 | 29.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.700 | 0.306 | 29.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.291 | 0.848 | 0.373 | 20.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.737 | 0.322 | 25.10% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | CLE vs L | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Rodon – The White Sox top prospect has shown flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, but has also been prone to wildness. He is somewhat similar to his counterpart today, Danny Salazar, in that he has extreme upside, but the wheels can fall off at any time. It benefits him to face a left-handed heavy lineup in Cleveland, as he has been much better against lefties. He makes for an intriguing tournament play. Pitcher Rating = 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 70 – SIERA: 4.26 – ERA: 4.48 – K%: 23.1% – BB%: 13.8% – HR/9: 0.64
Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,000 DK
Danny Salazar – It’s always a roller coaster ride with Salazar, as he can look fantastic for long stretches of time, but is never far from falling off a cliff. I like the matchup with the White Sox enough to move him pretty far up my list of tournament plays. He in the top ten in the league in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate and his 2.86 SIERA is nearly a full run lower than his 3.78 ERA. Pitcher Rating = 7.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 104 – SIERA: 2.86 – ERA: 3.78 – K%: 28.8% – BB%: 6.7% – HR/9: 1.20
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $10,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox –
Both sides of this game can be played in tournaments with the unpredictability of the pitchers. Salazar can give up home runs to batters from both sides of the plate when things go bad.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .360 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .197 – wRC+: 129
Adam LaRoche – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .323 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .167 – wRC+: 103
Cleveland
Ryan Raburn – Raburn specializes in hitting left-handed pitching and comes near minimum salary around the industry.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .378 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .223 – wRC+: 148
Secondary Plays:
Michael Brantley – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .128 – wRC+: 128
LA Dodgers at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST
| LA Dodgers | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Zack Greinke |  | Jacob Degrom | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-135) | 6.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.582 | 0.260 | 23.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.609 | 0.273 | 24.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.609 | 0.269 | 25.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.203 | 0.546 | 0.241 | 26.80% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Zack Greinke – We have a premier pitching matchup today in New York as Zack Greinke brings his 43 inning scoreless streak against Jacob deGrom and the Mets. The total for this game sits at just 6 runs, and I think we’ll be lucky to see that many. Greinke has been excellent and reliable all year even before the recent streak of dominance. Outside of an offensive explosion last night, the Mets have been an easy offense to face, and there’s no reason to expect trouble for Greinke today. Pitcher Rating = 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 131 – SIERA: 3.06 – ERA: 1.30 – K%: 23.7% – BB%: 4.3% – HR/9: 0.48
Salaries: $12,600 FD, $13,000 DK
Jacob deGrom – Everything about deGrom is ace level. He is striking out a batter per inning with a very low 4.5% walk rate. He has been fortunate on BABIP this season so his 2.18 ERA will likely not last, but his 2.95 SIERA and 2.61 FIP show that there is nothing to be worried about here. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since early May. The only thing keeping him from being a cash game play is the difficulty to expect a win facing off against Greinke. Both pitchers are strong plays, I wouldn’t even argue against playing them both on multi pitcher sites. Pitcher Rating = 9
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 119 – SIERA: 2.95 – ERA: 2.18 – K%: 25.9% – BB%: 4.5% – HR/9: 0.68
Salaries: $11,300 FD, $11,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers –
Somebody has to score eventually in this game, so if you want to take a tournament shot on a Dodgers bat, there is enough power in the lineup to hit on something.
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .396 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .266 – wRC+: 159
NY Mets –
Greinke is the top pitcher on the board, there is no reason to use any Mets against him.
Secondary Plays:
None
Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| Baltimore | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Wei-Yin Chen |  | Matt Moore | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-104) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.671 | 0.295 | 17.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.323 | 0.900 | 0.388 | 11.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.737 | 0.320 | 18.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.298 | 0.832 | 0.369 | 13.40% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wei-Yin Chen – Chen has been very consistent all season, you just about know exactly what you’re getting from him, and it’s not bad. Pitching in Tampa is a boost to his value as he is a fly ball pitcher whose Achilles heel is the home run ball. He’s right at league average with a 3.78 SIERA and 20% strikeout rate. He’s very likely to give you a quality start without significant K upside if that’s what you’re looking for. Pitcher Rating = 6
Salaries: $7,600 FD, $8,900 DK
Matt Moore – Moore does not look like he is ready to be back yet after Tommy John surgery. In his four starts he has just 11 strikeouts with 10 walks in 19 innings. He has allowed 15 runs on 25 hits in those four starts. He should get back to being a high upside pitcher at some point, hopefully it will happen this season, but I’m going to need to see it before I play him. The Orioles do offer some strikeout potential if you want to take a very longshot in a tournament, but tread carefully. Pitcher Rating = 4
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $4,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Jones has been hitting left-handed pitchers hard for the past two seasons. With Matt Moore’s current form, this is a great matchup, especially with Jones have a relatively reduced price at several sites.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .398 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .254 – wRC+: 157
Manny Machado – Machado is generally thought of as a reverse splits hitter, but he has upped his game against lefties this year. He is providing tons of counting stats from the top of the Baltimore lineup.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 146
Secondary Plays:
None.
Tampa Bay
Tampa is better as a team against left-handed pitching, but it’s tough to get too excited about a matchup with Wei-Yin Chen. With some of the other pitchers on the mound today around the league, I consider these Tampa bats as secondary plays.
Secondary Plays:
Evan Longoria – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .434 – ISO: .132 – wRC+: 152
Steve Souza – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .390 – ISO: .250 – wRC+: 151
Logan Forsythe – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .403 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .304 – wRC+: 168
Washington at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM EST
| Washington | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Joe Ross |  | Gerrit Cole | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-171) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.749 | 0.331 | 16.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.658 | 0.295 | 24.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.177 | 0.354 | 0.157 | 32.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.652 | 0.290 | 24.30% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | PIT vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Joe Ross – Ross has been a very pleasant surprise for the Nationals and fantasy owners in his first four major league starts. An outstanding 27:2 K:BB ratio gives hope that he is somewhat for real. He didn’t have that type of strikeout rate through most of his minor league career, so I am exercising caution with him for now. He has been especially tough on right-handed hitters so far. The Pirates are a bit of a mystery matchup as well, as they have an interesting mix of upside hitters and strikeout potential. Ross makes a fine tournament option if you want to lean on his recent game log. Pitcher Rating = 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 26 – SIERA: 2.44 – ERA: 2.70 – K%: 25.7% – BB%: 1.9% – HR/9: 0.00
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $7,500 DK
Gerrit Cole – Cole has turned himself into a top of the rotation ace for the Pirates, but if you look closely at his game log, he hasn’t really been a DFS ace in a while. Over his last six starts, he has been a solid but unspectacular pitcher with no more than six strikeouts in any game. I view him as a safe option that won’t hurt you against this Nationals offense, but I don’t see big tournament upside either. I have him ranked a notch below the other top pitcher this afternoon. Pitcher Rating = 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 124 – SIERA: 2.97 – ERA: 2.31 – K%: 24.5% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 0.51
Salaries: $10,600 FD, $10,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
You don’t want to target hitters against Gerrit Cole, though Bryce Harper is a tournament play in any matchup.
Secondary Plays:
Bryce Harper – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .485 – OBP: .468 – ISO: .376 – wRC+: 216
Pittsburgh
In his small sample size of starts, Joe Ross has been incredible against right-handed batters, with a 20:0 K:BB and 62% ground ball rate. Pirates lefties could be a tournament option, but it’s tough to go too heavily against Ross until he starts to slow down.
Secondary Plays:
Neil Walker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .338 – ISO: .155 – wRC+: 116
Pedro Alvarez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .311 – ISO: .220 – wRC+: 109