MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 13 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-15 17:59:14

NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST

NY Mets					Atlanta
			Jonathon Niese					Ryan Weber
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-165)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.308	0.895	0.378	0.071
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0	0	0	0.167
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits			ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jonathon Niese – It’s been a very rough stretch for Niese with 23 runs allowed in his last 20 innings. He’s certainly not that bad, but a 13.1% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate over the past month show that he’s off his game right now. While the Braves are the best matchup he could ask for, there’s not much merit in using him until he gets things turned around. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 24 – SIERA: 4.27 – ERA: 4.36 – K%: 15.2% – BB%: 7.2% – HR/9: 1.12

Ryan Weber – Weber allowed two runs in six innings in his fist major league start against the Phillies despite only striking out two batters. His minor league numbers show a very low walk rate which is a good skill to have, but it’s really difficult to recommend a young pitcher against a Mets lineup that leads the league in scoring over the past month. So I won’t. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 6 – SIERA: 3.16 – ERA: 3.00 – K%: 10.0% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 0.00

Salaries: $3,000 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

We have no data to go on for Ryan Weber, but his minor league numbers look like a guy who is going to give up a lot of contact, while limiting walks and home runs. The Braves have a weak bullpen behind him, and with the way the Mets have been hitting, they are very much in play.

Elite Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .272 – wRC+: 155
Curtis Granderson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .391 – OBP: .392 – ISO: .233 – wRC+: 154
Lucas Duda – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .215 – wRC+: 121

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Murphy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .162 – wRC+: 111
Michael Conforto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .398 – OBP: .374 – ISO: .262 – wRC+: 157
Travis d’Arnaud – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .230 – wRC+: 130
David Wright – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .281 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .056 – wRC+: 79

Atlanta

We have a weak offense against a cold pitcher today, making for some tough decisions. I don’t see much reason to play Braves batters in cash games, but Niese can certainly be hit if you want to take a shot in tournaments to differentiate yourself.

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .103 – wRC+: 93
Adonis Garcia – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .441 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .389 – wRC+: 183

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM EST

Milwaukee					Pittsburgh
			Taylor Jungmann					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-196)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.644	0.287	0.217	SP vs. Left	0.237	0.669	0.301	0.272
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.648	0.287	0.215	SP vs. Right	0.21	0.622	0.281	0.254
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Taylor Jungmann – Jungmann has alternated between good and bad starts recently, as his ERA continues it’s climb up towards his 3.99 SIERA. He is a low upside pitcher, capable of throwing useful starts with an average strikeout rate and solid ground ball rate. Because of his lack of high strikeout upside, the fact that he has now also lost his consistency makes him easy for me to avoid. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 100 – SIERA: 3.99 – ERA: 2.87 – K%: 21.6% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 0.45

Salaries: $8,700 FD, $9,000 DK

Francisco Liriano – Liriano broke out of an extended slump in his last start with a 10 strikeout performance against the Reds. Prior to that, he had seven straight starts with no more than five strikeouts. That was a concerning trend for a guy whose usefulness to us is entirely dependent on the strikeout. Because he flashed his upside five days ago, he can be considered a tournament play, but is completely off my radar for cash games. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 164 – SIERA: 3.45 – ERA: 3.28 – K%: 26.3% – BB%: 9.3% – HR/9: 0.71

Salaries: $10,500 FD, $10,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Liriano allows a low .276 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .278 wOBA to righties. There’s always a chance he flies off the rails, making a Brewers stack a long shot tournament option, but I don’t recommend targeting any individual batters here.

Secondary Plays:

Pittsburgh

Taylor Jungmann has been equally solid against both right and left-handed batters, allowing a low .287 wOBA to all batters. The Pirates certainly have talented enough hitters to do some damage today, but no batters in this game are very high on my wish list today.

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .395 – ISO: .215 – wRC+: 145

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Philadelphia
			Dan Haren					Aaron Harang
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.753	0.325	0.205	SP vs. Left	0.284	0.778	0.341	0.139
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.709	0.306	0.155	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.733	0.32	0.194
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Haren – Haren is completely at the mercy of his HR/FB rate as a below average strikeout rate and high fly ball rate combine to send a lot of balls into the air. The Phillies have a few guys that could hurt him, but he’s not a bad option, as he should pitch deep into the game and have a good chance for a win. He’s not the kind of gu you reach for, but if his salary is what you need to fit the other pieces you like, he should be OK. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 166 – SIERA: 4.48 – ERA: 3.73 – K%: 17.1% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.62

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $7,000 DK

Aaron Harang – Harang is a similar type of pitcher to Dan Haren, only a little bit worse across the board. He strikes out fewer batters and walks more, which makes him a less appealing option. I would consider stacking the Cubs before I’d consider using Harang. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 148 – SIERA: 4.84 – ERA: 5.02 – K%: 14.8% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.27

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Aaron Harang is allowing a .356 wOBA to left-handed batters with a low 9.1% strikeout rate and a 43.5% fly ball rate. Feel free to load up on the Cubs left-handed batters in all formats. While Harang is better against righties, he still allows power so the right-handed bats can be used in tournaments.

Elite Plays:

Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .272 – wRC+: 148
Kyle Schwarber – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .454 – OBP: .410 – ISO: .369 – wRC+: 191
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 123
Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .220 – wRC+: 141
Miguel Montero – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 110

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .186 – wRC+: 108

Philadelphia

Dan Haren is allowing a .368 wOBA and 52.7% fly ball rate to left-handed batters, making the Phillies power bats decent tournament options.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Howard – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .302 – ISO: .227 – wRC+: 110
Odubel Herrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .141 – wRC+: 112
Aaron Altherr – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .413 – OBP: .373 – ISO: .318 – wRC+: 164

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Minnesota					Chicago White Sox
			Kyle Gibson					Chris Sale
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-175)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.689	0.306	0.125	SP vs. Left	0.201	0.488	0.227	0.362
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.692	0.304	0.184	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.621	0.274	0.308
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson – Gibson was pitching very well earlier in the summer, but things have gone south. Over his last five starts, he is down to a 12.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate with a 5.11 SIERA. With just 16 strikeouts in his last 30 innings, and a matchup against Chris Sale, he is an easy avoid today. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 172 – SIERA: 4.26 – ERA: 3.87 – K%: 16.4% – BB%: 7.9% – HR/9: 0.84

Salaries: $6,500 FD, $6,800 DK

Chris Sale – Sale is my top pitcher today for both cash games and tournaments. He has been more consistent than Max Scherzer and has more strikeout ability than Zack Greinke. He is a legitimate threat to put up 15 strikeouts everytime he takes the mound, which can beat you if you don’t have him. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 184 – SIERA: 2.43 – ERA: 3.31 – K%: 33.1% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 0.88

Salaries: $12,500 FD, $13,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have some talented hitters against left-handed pitching, but there is no reason to be playing against Chris Sale.

Secondary Plays:

Chicago White Sox

Kyle Gibson has improved his skills against left-handed batters dramatically this season, but he is still getting by mostly due to a low BABIP and HR/FB% vs lefties. With his recent drop in skills, he is worth playing against sparingly, though he’s far from the worst pitcher going today.

Elite Plays

Jose Abreu – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .248 – wRC+: 147
Adam Eaton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 130

Secondary Plays:

Adam LaRoche – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .315 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .164 – wRC+: 98
Melky Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .119 – wRC+: 97

Oakland at Texas – 3:05 PM EST

Oakland					Texas
			Felix Doubront					Chi Chi Gonzalez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (-151)					9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.306	0.773	0.344	0.185	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.274	0.807	0.352	0.137	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits			OAK vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Doubront – Doubront has been as good as Oakland could have hoped for in eating up some starts for them, but there is much more downside than upside for our purposes. He has a 10.7% walk rate and 4.82 SIERA over the past month and can be avoided in this matchup. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 53 – SIERA: 4.18 – ERA: 4.22 – K%: 16.5% – BB%: 7.4% – HR/9: 0.51

Salaries: $5,800 FD, $4,600 DK

Chi Chi Gonzalez – Alex “I am not good enough for a nickname but my friends call me Chi-Chi” Gonzalez was called back up from AAA to start today against Oakland. He came out of the gate strong earlier in his first three starts of the season, but a quick glance at the numbers shows that he was never actually pitching well. In his 55 innings this season, he has 26 strikeouts and 25 walks. That is so terrible that there is no justification to play him in any format. Pitcher Rating – 1.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 55 – SIERA: 5.36 – ERA: 4.25 – K%: 11.2% – BB%: 10.8% – HR/9: 0.82

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

It’s pretty tough to get excited about playing Oakland batters, but they do have some upside in a good ballpark against a hittable pitcher. Gonzalez has a good ground ball rate but terrible control against left-handed batters and has given up more hard contact and a higher fly ball rate to right-handed batters. Basically, I would look either to stack Oakland, or just use lower priced hitters as fill-ins where needed.

Elite Plays

Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .186 – wRC+: 130

Secondary Plays:

Mark Canha – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .363 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .245 – wRC+: 135
Danny Valencia – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .303 – ISO: .265 – wRC+: 128

Texas

Felix Doubront is allowing a .349 wOBA to right-handed batters with a 14.4% strikeout rate. He gets a good number of ground balls, but we should expect some scoring from this Rangers team, and the right-handed bats are the priority plays.

Elite Plays

Adrian Beltre – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .181 – wRC+: 110
Delino Deshields – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .124 – wRC+: 102
Mike Napoli – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .372 – ISO: .286 – wRC+: 145

Secondary Plays:

Elvis Andrus – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .123 – wRC+: 91
Prince Fielder – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .328- OBP: .333 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 102

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