MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 13th - Page Two
Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:15 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Francisco Liriano |  | Lance Lynn | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-115) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.656 | 0.296 | 0.278 | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.71 | 0.316 | 0.183 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.614 | 0.278 | 0.259 | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.629 | 0.281 | 0.26 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Francisco Liriano : FD: $9,700 — DK: $11,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 291.2 — SIERA: 3.36 — ERA: 3.27 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 10.3% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 21.0 — SIERA: 3.27 — ERA: 3.86 — K%: 26.6% — BB%: 9.6% — HR/9: 0.9
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 23.4% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Liriano has basically been in good form the entire season. The same rings true over the last month of play, as he has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.6%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who have been downright awful against left-handed pitching. On the season, they are ranked 24th in team wOBA and 27th in strikeout rate against southpaws. Liriano is an underdog here, but he has as much upside as any pitcher on the board tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 83.5
Lance Lynn : FD: $9,500 — DK: $10,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 331.0 — SIERA: 3.71 — ERA: 2.75 — K%: 22.6% — BB%: 8.3% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.53 — ERA: 2.32 — K%: 26.0% — BB%: 9.2% — HR/9: 0.9
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.354 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Lynn has been in great form recently, posting a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.0% over the last month of play. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Pirates, but he gets to face him at home. He may not have the strikeout potential that Francisco Liriano has, but Lynn is actually a small favorite in this game. He is a sneaky under-the-radar pick at pitcher tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 76.5
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
There are two elite pitchers on the mound in this one, which is why it has the lowest run total on the board. Lance Lynn has been very effective against right-handed hitters, but he has given up a .316 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Gregory Polanco is the only fantasy option of note here.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Gregory Polanco : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 354 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 143
St. Louis
The Cardinals are also in a less than appealing matchup tonight, as Francisco Liriano has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons. Jhonny Peralta is in play at the thin shortstop position. He has a .341 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 128 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 82
LA Angels at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Garrett Richards |  | Jeremy Guthrie | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-108) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.206 | 0.567 | 0.254 | 0.227 | SP vs. Left | 0.307 | 0.869 | 0.379 | 0.137 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.603 | 0.273 | 0.212 | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.667 | 0.295 | 0.124 |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Garrett Richards : FD: $8,800 — DK: $9,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 304.2 — SIERA: 3.52 — ERA: 3.01 — K%: 22.0% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.2 — SIERA: 3.54 — ERA: 3.44 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 1.2
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 15.8% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.286 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 15.1% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.66 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Richards has really been sharp in his recent outings, posting a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. He’ll get a real test tonight, as he has to face the Royals, who have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the majors this season. The price point on Richards is appealing, but I try not to make a habit out of targeting pitchers against the Royals. He is best suited as a tournament play tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 70.3
Jeremy Guthrie : FD: $5,300 — DK: $4,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 321.1 — SIERA: 4.62 — ERA: 4.76 — K%: 13.2% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 5.19 — ERA: 7.83 — K%: 8.8% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 2.4
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.262 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Guthrie is one of my favorite pitchers to pick on. He has an above-average SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate and he can’t seem to get left-handed hitters out for the life of him. Even though he is pitching at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, he can safely be avoided against the Angels tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 32.4
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark tonight, but they are still in a great spot against Jeremy Guthrie, who has given up a .379 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. All of the left-handed bats (plus Mike Trout) are in play tonight.
Elite Plays:
Kole Calhoun : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 334 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.239 — wRC+: 153
Erick Aybar : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 338 — wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.068 — wRC+: 84
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.268 — ISO: 0.057 — wRC+: 73
Secondary Plays:
Mike Trout : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 359 — wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.305 — wRC+: 179
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: 0.309 — wRC+: 172
David Murphy : FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 247 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 62 — wOBA: 0.198 — ISO: 0.050 — wRC+: 22
Kansas City
The Royals draw a difficult matchup tonight against Garrett Richards, who has held left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA over the last two seasons. Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer are both secondary plays at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 273 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 114
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 140
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 274 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 199
Cincinnati at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST
| Cincinnati | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Keyvius Sampson |  | Mat Latos | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-185) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.722 | 0.323 | 0.429 | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.304 | 0.168 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.115 | 0.379 | 0.166 | 0.111 | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.662 | 0.292 | 0.2 |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Keyvius Sampson : FD: $5,300 — DK: $4,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 12.0 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 3.00 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 8.3% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 12.0 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 3.00 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 8.3% — HR/9: 0.8
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.346 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Sampson has fared well in his first two major league starts, but he will have his toughest test to date tonight. The Dodgers are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Sampson is a huge underdog on the road that can safely be avoided in all league formats tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 56.7
Mat Latos : FD: $6,200 — DK: $7,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 200.2 — SIERA: 4.01 — ERA: 3.95 — K%: 18.5% — BB%: 6.4% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 3.88 — ERA: 3.91 — K%: 14.1% — BB%: 3.3% — HR/9: 1.2
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Latos may not have the highest strikeout rate in baseball, but he does have a good chance to pick up a win tonight at home against the Reds. Cincinnati is an average offense against right-handed pitching and Latos is expected to get plenty of run support with Keyvius Sampson pitching opposite him. At his price point, he is a viable fantasy option in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 67.0
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
The Reds have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Mat Latos in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium. Latos has been effective against hitters from both sides of the plate, so the Reds are secondary options at best tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 337 — wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 167
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.508 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 229
Todd Frazier : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 356 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.223 — wRC+: 114
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.219 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 30
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers draw an interesting matchup tonight against Keyvius Sampson, who is only making his third career major league start. The Dodgers hit right-handed pitching well as a team and they are underpriced a bit on FanDuel.
Elite Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,500 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 352 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.252 — wRC+: 156
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.232 — wRC+: 185
Yasmani Grandal : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 278 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 155
Last 30 Days: PA: 66 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.083 — wRC+: 113
Secondary Plays:
Andre Ethier : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 298 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 146
Last 30 Days: PA: 67 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 114
Jimmy Rollins : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 350 — wOBA: 0.269 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 71
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 119
Washington at San Francisco – 10:15 PM EST
| Washington | San Francisco | ||||||||
 | Stephen Strasburg |  | Ryan Vogelsong | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-130) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.663 | 0.293 | 0.24 | SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.816 | 0.356 | 0.195 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.719 | 0.314 | 0.297 | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.673 | 0.299 | 0.18 |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Stephen Strasburg : FD: $9,400 — DK: $10,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 283.0 — SIERA: 2.79 — ERA: 3.53 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 5.2% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 7.0 — SIERA: 0.83 — ERA: 1.29 — K%: 50.0% — BB%: 0.0% — HR/9: 1.3
San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Strasburg was terrific in his first start back from injury, striking out 12 batters in seven innings of work against the Rockies. He threw 91 pitches in that start and will likely be stretched a bit more tonight, so a pitch count isn’t a huge concern. The biggest problem is his matchup against the Giants, who are ranked fourth in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Strasburg has the highest rating of the night, but I’d like to see a couple of starts from him before targeting him on single-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 87.6
Ryan Vogelsong : FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 290.1 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 4.09 — K%: 18.7% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 10.0 — SIERA: 2.88 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 0.9
Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Vogelsong is a pitcher that deserves consideration every once in a while. The matchup has to be favorable and he has to be pitching at home. He is halfway there tonight, but the Nationals are a formidable opponent now that they are healthy. Even on a five-game slate, there are better pitching options, both for cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 52.7
Batter Grind Down
Washington
The Nationals draw a decent matchup against Ryan Vogelsong, who has been very hittable over the last two seasons, especially by left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper is an elite play in the outfield, even though he has been quiet in his last few games.
Elite Plays:
Bryce Harper : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 313 — wOBA: 0.475 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 210
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 154
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rendon : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.092 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 95
Clint Robinson : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 200 — wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 99
Last 30 Days: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 108
San Francisco
The Giants draw a difficult matchup tonight against Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons. Strasburg does get shelled every once in a while, but the Giants are deep tournaments plays at best tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE