MLB Grind Down: Thursday/Friday
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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NY Mets at LA Dodgers – Thursday, 8:07 PM EST
| NY Mets | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Jacob Degrom |  | Zack Greinke | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-150) | 6.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.655 | 0.289 | 25.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.582 | 0.258 | 22.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.532 | 0.235 | 27.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.582 | 0.257 | 26.30% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob DeGrom : FD: $10,600 — DK: $11,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 327.1 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 2.64 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 2.68 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 2.0% — HR/9: 0.4
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)
Analysis: DeGrom was magnificent in Game 1 of this series, striking out 13 batters in seven shutout innings of work. He was clearly not overwhelmed in his first postseason start, even though it was on the road. He is faced with the same matchup in the same ballpark tonight. While he does provide great upside, the Mets are sizable underdogs with Zack Greinke pitching opposite deGrom. He is the clear number two option in this two-game slate, but I’ll give the edge to Greinke in this matchup. Not only is he pitching at home, but the Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching better than the Mets this season.
Pitcher Rating: 81.2
Zack Greinke : FD: $12,400 — DK: $12,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 417.0 — SIERA: 3.09 — ERA: 2.18 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 3.45 — ERA: 2.25 — K%: 22.1% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 1.0
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Greinke pitched well in a Dodgers’ win in Game 2 of this series. He struck out eight batters over seven innings of work, while only giving up two earned runs. He has been dominant at Dodger Stadium throughout his career and he has also had success against the Mets, as their current roster is only 39-for-172 (.229) against him. Greinke is a sizable favorite and while run support may be hard to come by, he is the chalk play in cash games.
Pitcher Rating: 91.9
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets draw a difficult matchup against Zack Greinke, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 wOBA over the last two seasons. It’s hard to justify listing any of their bats as elite plays, but with only two games in this slate, it’s hard to completely rule them out either. Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson are both secondary options.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1005 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 132
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.295 — wRC+: 144
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1009 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 155
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers had a tough time with Jacob deGrom in Game 1, but they will make adjustments. This is still a bad matchup overall though, as deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two seasons. The best hitters to target in this slate are going to come from the Blue Jays/Royals matchup, but there are a few hitters that deserve consideration here.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Howie Kendrick : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 878 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.044 — wRC+: 72
Justin Turner : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 526 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 81 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 140
Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 944 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.234 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.108 — wRC+: 96
Toronto at Kansas City – Friday, 8:07 PM EST
| Toronto | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Marco Estrada |  | Edinson Volquez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBD | TBD | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.672 | 0.293 | 17.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.707 | 0.311 | 18.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.706 | 0.310 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.296 | 17.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada : FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 325.0 — SIERA: 4.36 — ERA: 3.71 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 5.83 — ERA: 3.09 — K%: 12.2% — BB%: 8.9% — HR/9: 1.4
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: After David Price made a relief appearance in Game 4 against the Rangers, Marcus Stroman got the start in the Blue Jays’ Game 5 victory. That leaves Estrada as the Blue Jays’ starting pitcher for Game 1 against the Astros. He pitched well in his last start against the Rangers, allowing a single run in six and one-third innings. He draws a difficult matchup against the Royals. While this game will take place in the pitcher-friendly Kaufmann Stadium, the Royals were ranked eighth in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Look to the Mets/Dodgers game for pitching.
Pitcher Rating: 48.2
Edinson Volquez : FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 391.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — ERA: 3.31 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 5.18 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 1.4
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Volquez struck out eight batters in five and two-third innings against the Astros in Game 3. He has not been in great form in the second half of the season and he has to face the best offense in baseball to open the ALCS. During the regular season, the Blue Jays were ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. There is more risk than potential reward here.
Pitcher Rating: 58.8
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays are coming off of a crazy win against the Rangers. That seventh inning was by far the most interesting hour of baseball that I can remember. Toronto draws a favorable matchup against Edinson Volquez, who has allowed a .311 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .296 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1061 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 897 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 928 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1080 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Russell Martin : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 132
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 398 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Kansas City
The Royals have the best matchup on the board in this two-game slate. Since the start of the 2014 season, Marco Estrada has allowed a .293 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .310 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The sample size is small, but the current Royals’ roster has had decent success against Estrada in the past. The Royals also offer good value, as their hitters are very affordable, especially on FanDuel.
Elite Plays:
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46
Salvador Perez : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 834 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 103
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149