MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 18th - Page Three
Boston at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST
| Boston | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Clay Buchholz |  | Shelby Miller | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-115) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.742 | 0.329 | 0.193 | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.682 | 0.301 | 0.156 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.205 | SP vs. Right | 0.209 | 0.631 | 0.282 | 0.183 |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Clay Buchholz : FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 249.1 — SIERA: 3.76 — K%: 19.8% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 32.8% — HR/FB: 8.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 3.56 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 27.3% — HR/FB: 3.7%
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 4)
Pitchers per PA: 3.76 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: After a disappointing 2014 campaign, Buchholz has bounced back nicely this season. He has really pitched well over the last month of play with a 3.56 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 19.7%. There are times where Buchholz is a great fantasy option, but this isn’t one of them. The Braves have one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball and their offense has been red-hot over the last few weeks.
Pitcher Rating:61.8
Shelby Miller : FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 267.2 — SIERA: 4.47 — K%: 17.1% — BB%: 9.1% — FB Rate: 38.4% — HR/FB: 8.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.2 — SIERA: 4.57 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 7.5% — FB Rate: 33.1% — HR/FB: 2.4%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Miller has great velocity, but he has been unable to turn that into a high strikeout rate. He has only struck out 17% of the batters that he has faced in the last two seasons and that number drops all the way down to 13.7% over the last month. He could pitch well tonight against the Red Sox, but there isn’t enough strikeout potential to warrant the expensive price tag.
Pitcher Rating:46.8
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Since the start of 2014, Shelby Miller has held left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. Throw in a pitcher’s park and the fact that the game will be played under National League rules and the Red Sox are an easy offense to avoid tonight.
Atlanta
Jace Peterson : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 249 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.086 — wRC+: 78
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 154
Analysis: Peterson is one of the top plays at second base tonight. He offers great value at his price point. He has been swinging a hot bat with a .397 wOBA over the last two weeks. He draws a favorable matchup against Clay Buchholz, who has given up a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Nick Markakis
Salaries: FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 718 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 116
Milwaukee at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST
| Milwaukee | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Jimmy Nelson |  | Jeremy Guthrie | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-142) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.848 | 0.366 | 0.177 | SP vs. Left | 0.305 | 0.872 | 0.381 | 0.14 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.68 | 0.306 | 0.215 | SP vs. Right | 0.24 | 0.619 | 0.276 | 0.124 |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jimmy Nelson : FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 147.2 — SIERA: 3.82 — K%: 19.8% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 31.2% — HR/FB: 11.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 4.08 — K%: 19.8% — BB%: 9.9% — FB Rate: 26.6% — HR/FB: 13.8%
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.265 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.67 (Rank: 29)
Analysis: Nelson is one of those pitchers that I always talk myself out of. Usually, it ends up being a good thing. He’s an inconsistent pitcher that has had much better success at home than he has on the road. I will continue to avoid him tonight, as he takes on a Royals’ offense that seems to have their mojo back.
Pitcher Rating:54.4
Jeremy Guthrie : FD: $5,700 — DK: $4,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 268.0 — SIERA: 4.58 — K%: 13.3% — BB%: 6.0% — FB Rate: 37.3% — HR/FB: 10.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 5.34 — K%: 12.8% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 51.8% — HR/FB: 14.0%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 22)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Guthrie may be a favorite tonight, but he should not be on your radar. He has not pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 5.34 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 12.8%. The matchup against the Brewers is a favorable one, but if anything, I expect the Brewers’ offense to get going.
Pitcher Rating:46.7
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Adam Lind : FD: $2,500 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 489 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 151
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.106 — wRC+: 117
Analysis: Anytime Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound, it is a green light for any left-handed hitter. Since the start of 2014, Guthrie has given up a .381 wOBA to batters that hit from the left side of the plate. Lind is cheap and offers great value at first base tonight, as he has terrific numbers against right-handed pitching.
Gerardo Parra
Salaries: FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 635 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 93
Kansas City
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 520 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.103 — wRC+: 98
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 92
Analysis: Even at a steep discount, Cain was around 4% owned in cash games last night. I was a bit surprised, but it ended up working out in my favor. I’ll be targeting him again tonight, as he is still only $2,700 on FanDuel. The Royals’ offense is finally starting to hit again and this may be one of the last nights to take them at their discounted prices.
Eric Hosmer
Salaries: FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 553 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 116
Mike Moustakas
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 554 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 103
Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Gerrit Cole |  | Jeff Samardzija | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-129) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.671 | 0.301 | 0.249 | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.718 | 0.314 | 0.223 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.636 | 0.284 | 0.26 | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.658 | 0.289 | 0.212 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gerrit Cole : FD: $11,200 — DK: $10,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 222.0 — SIERA: 3.03 — K%: 25.5% — BB%: 6.5% — FB Rate: 29.6% — HR/FB: 8.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.1 — SIERA: 2.52 — K%: 29.2% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 30.2% — HR/FB: 7.7%
Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Cole is one of the top pitching options on the board tonight. He has been dominant in his last few starts, posting a 2.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.2% over the last month. While it does hurt that he has to face an American League offense in an American League ballpark, the White Sox are not a team that we need to be afraid of right now. The White Sox are ranked 28th in wOBA (.272) and 27th in strikeout rate (23.2%) over the last 14 days.
Pitcher Rating:89.8
Jeff Samardzija : FD: $8,600 — DK: $7,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 307.0 — SIERA: 3.30 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 4.7% — FB Rate: 32.7% — HR/FB: 10.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 42.1 — SIERA: 3.72 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 4.5% — FB Rate: 39.2% — HR/FB: 9.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Samardzija has had some bad luck this season, but he is still a very competent pitcher. He has a 3.30 SIERA with a striekout rate of 21.7% over the last two seasons. He draws an average matchup against the Pirates, who are ranked 19th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Samardzija is a sizable underdog though and he’s best used in tournaments tonight.
Pitcher Rating:69.0
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Even though Jeff Samardzija has given up runs in bunches this season, he is still a very good pitcher. The Pirates do have the benefit of playing in a hitter’s park, but they are better secondary options than elite plays tonight.
Andrew McCutchen
Salaries: FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 750 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 162
Jung-Ho Kang
Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 129 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.106 — wRC+: 107
Chicago White Sox
Since the start of 2014, Gerrit Cole has held left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. The White Sox have one of the lowest team totals on the board and they can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Texas at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST
| Texas | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Anthony Ranaudo |  | Zack Greinke | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-260) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.865 | 0.375 | 0.108 | SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.624 | 0.277 | 0.235 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.078 | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.645 | 0.284 | 0.249 |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Anthony Ranaudo : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 41.0 — SIERA: 5.93 — K%: 9.3% — BB%: 9.8% — FB Rate: 51.7% — HR/FB: 13.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: — SIERA: — K%: — BB%: — FB Rate: — HR/FB:
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Ranaudo will draw a spot start for the Rangers. This will be his first major league appearance of the season. He is the largest underdog on the board and he faces a Dodgers’ offense that is ranked first in wOBA against right-handed pitching. It’s safe to say that Ranaudo is a bad fantasy option tonight.
Pitcher Rating:22.7
Zack Greinke : FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 290.0 — SIERA: 3.01 — K%: 24.3% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 29.9% — HR/FB: 10.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 3.05 — K%: 22.6% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 27.4% — HR/FB: 11.5%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: If you are looking for a safe cash game play, Greinke may be your best bet tonight. While Gerrit Cole and Chris Archer are in great spots, they are both pitching on the road. Greinke is a much bigger favorite, which means he will have a much better chance of picking up the win. I don’t love targeting pitchers against the Rangers, but Greinke gets to face them in a pitcher’s park under National League rules.
Pitcher Rating:88.4
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers offense has been very good over the last few weeks, but they run into a dominant pitcher in Zack Greinke. The Rangers are the biggest underdogs on the board and this game features a very lot total of 7.0 runs. There is little fantasy appeal here.
LA Dodgers
Joc Pederson : FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 248 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 149
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 161
Analysis: The Dodgers seem to have a knack of letting us down in favorable matchups, but it’s hard to envision them struggling tonight against Anthony Ranaudo, who gave up a .375+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters last season. Pederson has incredible power and somehow his price dropped all the way down to $3,800 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Adrian Gonzalez
Salaries: FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.239 — wRC+: 154
Andre Ethier
Salaries: FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 511 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 120
Justin Turner
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 345 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 167
San Francisco at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST
| San Francisco | Seattle | ||||||||
 | Ryan Vogelsong |  | Mike Montgomery | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-138) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.285 | 0.831 | 0.363 | 0.194 | SP vs. Left | 0.400 | 1.238 | 0.519 | 0.077 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.22 | 0.669 | 0.297 | 0.178 | SP vs. Right | 0.183 | 0.489 | 0.219 | 0.159 |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs L | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ryan Vogelsong : FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 252.0 — SIERA: 4.17 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 8.1% — FB Rate: 37.6% — HR/FB: 9.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.54 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 9.9% — FB Rate: 34.9% — HR/FB: 3.4%
Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)
Pitchers per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Vogelsong had a nice stretch of starts there for a while, but his indicators don’t look that great. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.4%. The Mariners do present a plus-matchup, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in Vogelsong on the road.
Pitcher Rating:51.3
Michael Montgomery : FD: $6,200 — DK: $5,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 19.0 — SIERA: 4.71 — K%: 14.5% — BB%: 7.9% — FB Rate: 39.0% — HR/FB: 4.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 19.0 — SIERA: 4.71 — K%: 14.5% — BB%: 7.9% — FB Rate: 39.0% — HR/FB: 4.3%
San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 1)
Pitchers per PA: 3.70 (Rank: 28)
Analysis: Montgomery is an interesting value play tonight. He has a 4.71 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 14.5% this season, but he is a sizable favorite tonight at home. He does draw a difficult matchup against the Giants, but again, he’s a favorite and he is one of the cheapest options on the board.
Pitcher Rating:52.3
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 233 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 141
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 139
Analysis: Posey is always in play when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. Since the start of 2014, Posey has a .367 wOBA and a .200 ISO against southpaws. Mike Montgomery has held right-handed hitters to a .210 wOBA this season, but don’t put too much stock into that, as the sample size is still very small.
Angel Pagan
Salaries: FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 213 — wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 95
Seattle
Logan Morrison : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 462 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 144
Analysis: Since the start of last season, Ryan Vogelsong has given up a .363 wOBA to left-handed hitters. That bodes well for a left-hand heavy Mariners’ lineup. Morrison is cheap and he has been very good over the last two weeks with a .371 wOBA and a .175 ISO. Don’t be afraid to target a few of these value lefties on the Mariners tonight.
Kyle Seager
Salaries: FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 618 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 134
Seth Smith
Salaries: FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 647 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 132
Robinson Cano
Salaries: FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 620 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 127