MLB Grind Down: Tuesday/Wednesday
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Houston at NY Yankees – Tuesday, 8:08 PM EST
| Houston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Dallas Keuchel |  | Masahiro Tanaka | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-110) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.524 | 0.233 | 25.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.663 | 0.289 | 23.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.633 | 0.281 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.668 | 0.289 | 25.40% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dallas Keuchel : FD: $11,000 — DK: $11,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 426.0 — SIERA: 2.93 — ERA: 2.68 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 2.56 — ERA: 3.78 — K%: 29.6% — BB%: 5.2% — HR/9: 1.6
New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: The regular season is over, but we still have some terrific postseason DFS to look forward to. The wildcard games are on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, while the divisional series’ will start on Friday. The Astros just barely squeaked into the playoffs, but Vegas has this game set as a pick ‘em and they have to like their chances of advancing with their ace on the mound. Keuchel has been dominant over the last month of play, posting a 2.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.6%. Keuchel also boasts an elite ground ball rate of 61.7% this season. The current Yankees’ roster has a .202 batting average with a .565 OPS against him in the past. Given the fact that the Yankees have struggled offensively down the stretch of the regular season, Keuchel deserves strong consideration in the Tuesday/Wednesday slate.
Pitcher Rating: 85.9
Masahiro Tanaka : FD: $9,600 — DK: $9,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 290.1 — SIERA: 3.04 — ERA: 3.16 — K%: 24.3% — BB%: 4.2% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.1 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 3.06 — K%: 23.4% — BB%: 2.4% — HR/9: 1.4
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: The Yankees are back in the playoffs, but they need a victory over the Astros to advance to the American League Division Series. They will have their ace on the mound for the Wildcard game and he comes into this start in great form. Over the last month of play, Tanaka has a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.4% and a walk rate of only 2.4%. He draws an intriguing matchup against the Astros. While they are ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they also have the second-highest strikeout rate. I see Tanaka as a contrarian boom or bust option in this game. The Astros’ lineup is full of talent top to bottom, but they are a free-swinging ball club that is not afraid to strike out.
Pitcher Rating: 75.0
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros may only have a team total of 3.56 runs, but that is actually the highest of the four teams in this slate. Now that we are into the playoffs, there aren’t any obvious pitching matchups that we can target. We have to be very selective and take the players that will put us in the best position to win. Since the start of the 2014 season, Masahiro Tanaka has allowed a .289 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. George Springer has really picked up his play over the last few weeks and he is sitting at a playable price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Luis Valbuena should also be considered an elite play, as he has a .457 wOBA and a .289 ISO over the last month of play.
Elite Plays:
George Springer : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 526 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 135
Luis Valbuena : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 806 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.289 — wRC+: 196
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Correa : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 280 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 136
Jose Altuve : FD: $3,400 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1012 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.113 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.291 — wRC+: 146
Evan Gattis : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 718 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.228 — wRC+: 112
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.247 — wRC+: 126
Colby Rasmus : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 613 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 85 — wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.324 — wRC+: 173
NY Yankees
The Yankees have the second-highest team total in this slate at 3.44 runs. They draw a difficult matchup against Dallas Keuchel, who as mentioned above, has an elite ground ball rate. Keuchel has been extremely tough on left-handed hitters (.233 wOBA), but he has allowed a .281 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate. Chris Young is the only elite play that I see in this lineup. Not only is he dirt cheap, but he should be hitting in a favorable spot in the lineup and he has a .352 wOBA against southpaws over the last two seasons. Young is also a fly-ball hitter (47.0%), which should help negate the elite ground ball rate of Keuchel.
Elite Plays:
Chris Young : FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 5 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 122
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Beltran : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 305 — wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 109
Alex Rodriguez : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 188 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.278 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 121
Brett Gardner : FD: $2,200 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 385 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 105
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.251 — ISO: 0.096 — wRC+: 53
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – Wednesday, 8:08 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Gerrit Cole | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-130) | 5.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.173 | 0.492 | 0.224 | 30.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.649 | 0.290 | 23.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.547 | 0.242 | 24.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.653 | 0.288 | 25.00% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta : FD: $12,700 — DK: $14,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 379.2 — SIERA: 2.82 — ERA: 2.11 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.0 — SIERA: 2.08 — ERA: 0.45 — K%: 27.9% — BB%: 2.9% — HR/9: 0.2
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 15)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Arrieta was absolutely dominant down the stretch of the regular season, posting a 2.08 SIERA (0.45 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 27.9% and a walk rate of only 2.9%. He has made a run at the National League Cy Young and at this point, we shouldn’t be surprised if he wins it. In five starts against the Pirates this season, he had a 0.75 ERA while holding them to a .151 batting average. Arrieta also had 33 strikeouts in 36 innings of work in those five meetings. The only possible downside here is that Arrieta is pitching on the road, but when you are as locked in as Arrieta is, it doesn’t matter where you pitch. He is the premier pitching option in the Tuesday/Wednesday slate.
Pitcher Rating: 98.3
Gerrit Cole : FD: $10,000 — DK: $10,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 346.0 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 3.02 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 6.0% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 3.09 — ERA: 2.36 — K%: 26.0% — BB%: 3.8% — HR/9: 0.5
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: The Pirates have had a tremendous season. If it wasn’t for the Cardinals, they would be the top seed in the National League. They will have their ace on the mound, as they host the Cubs in the Wildcard game. Cole comes into this start in great form, posting a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.0% and a walk rate of 3.8%. Cole will have the hometown crowd at his back and on paper, he draws the best matchup of any pitcher in this slate. Over the course of the entire season, the Cubs are ranked 14th in team wOBA and 30th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. In four meetings against the Cubs this season, Cole has a 2.13 ERA with 32 strikeouts over 25 innings of work. Even though I have Jake Arrieta as the top pitching option, my gut tells me that the Pirates find a way to pull out the win.
Pitcher Rating: 82.0
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2007 when they lost to the Dodgers in the NLDS. With a talented young offense and an elite ace on the mound, they have a good chance to make a run this postseason. Gerrit Cole stands in their way, though. Since the start of the 2014 season, Cole has allowed a .290 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .288 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Cubs haven’t had a ton of success against him, but Dexter Fowler sticks out in this matchup. He is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he will be batting leadoff, and he has good speed on the base paths.
Elite Plays:
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 492 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 139
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92
Miguel Montero : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 785 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 75 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.061 — wRC+: 104
Pittsburgh
The Pirates have the lowest team total in this two-game slate, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering the fact that they are facing Jake Arrieta. Since the start of the 2014 season, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .245 wOBA, which is about as good as any pitcher in baseball during that stretch. Even though all signs point to a Pirates’ fade, they are playing at home and again, there are only two games in this slate. Andrew McCutchen is a borderline elite play here. Not only does he have a flare for the dramatic with big hits in big spots, but he is also the only Pirates’ hitter that has had any success against Arrieta. In his career, he is 8-for-23 with two doubles and three walks.
Elite Plays:
Andrew McCutchen : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1065 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 157
Last 30 Days: PA: 126 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Starling Marte : FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 937 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 132
Gregory Polanco : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 725 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 86
Aramis Ramirez : FD: $2,800 — DK: $2,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 804 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 92
Last 30 Days: PA: 79 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 106