MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, October 14th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Texas at Toronto – 4:07 PM EST
| Texas | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Cole Hamels |  | Marcus Stroman | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-174) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.641 | 0.291 | 20.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.618 | 0.276 | 20.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.659 | 0.290 | 25.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.623 | 0.278 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cole Hamels : FD: $10,600 — DK: $9,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 408.0 — SIERA: 3.37 — ERA: 3.09 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.0 — SIERA: 3.44 — ERA: 3.83 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 4.7% — HR/9: 0.9
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: As baseball fans, we are a bit spoiled today. Not only do we get to watch a Game 5 between the Rangers and Blue Jays, but we also get to watch a Game 5 between the Astros and Royals. Hamels will be on the bump for the Rangers. He give up two earned runs in seven innings in Game 2, while striking out six batters. While Hamels has more postseason experience than young Marcus Stroman, he draws the more difficult matchup of the two. In the regular season, the Blue Jays were ranked first in team wOBA and third in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. He can be avoided in cash games, as he is the largest underdog on the board.
Pitcher Rating: 66.9
Marcus Stroman : FD: $8,300 — DK: $10,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 157.2 — SIERA: 3.21 — ERA: 3.31 — K%: 20.3% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 3.29 — ERA: 1.67 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.7
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.350 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Stroman got off to a shaky start in Game 2, but he quickly righted the ship and it looked as if he was going to be in line for the win. He finished the game with five strikeouts over seven innings of work, allowing three earned runs. Even though he is young and inexperienced, he seems poised to make some noise in the postseason. He is the largest favorite on the board and he sees a small boost with Adrian Beltre being hampered by a back injury. Stroman is the obvious choice at pitcher on FanDuel, but he is not a must-start on DraftKings at a price of $10,000.
Pitcher Rating: 83.2
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers scored four runs (three earned) against Marcus Stroman in Game 2 of this series, but most of that damage came early. Once Stroman got into a zone, they really struggled to string together hits. The good news is that the Rangers are facing a young pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Elite Plays:
Prince Fielder : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 517 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 135
Last 30 Days: PA: 131 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 108
Secondary Plays:
Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 765 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 134 — wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 194
Delino Deshields : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 313 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 86
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 81
Rougned Odor : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 590 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 101
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 84
Mitch Moreland : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 494 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 104
Elvis Andrus : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 920 — wOBA: 0.273 — ISO: 0.072 — wRC+: 64
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 75
Toronto
The Blue Jays draw a tough matchup against Cole Hamels, but there are very few left-handed pitchers that have success against them in the Rogers Centre. Load up on the right-handed hitters in this lineup, as the Blue Jays have the highest team total on the board.
Elite Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 313 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.350 — wRC+: 183
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 226 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 140
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 266 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 164
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 172 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 207 — wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.301 — wRC+: 194
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 88
Russell Martin : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 206 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 137
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 132
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 350 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.055 — wRC+: 96
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Houston at Kansas City – 8:07 PM EST
| Houston | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Collin McHugh |  | Johnny Cueto | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-131) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.630 | 0.279 | 21.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.579 | 0.260 | 23.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.685 | 0.301 | 23.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.660 | 0.290 | 22.10% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Collin Mchugh : FD: $9,000 — DK: $8,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 351.1 — SIERA: 3.59 — ERA: 3.43 — K%: 22.2% — BB%: 6.4% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.78 — ERA: 4.31 — K%: 22.0% — BB%: 6.8% — HR/9: 0.9
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: The Astros suffered a heartbreaking loss in Game 4, after being up four runs heading into the eighth innings. The Royals postseason magic continued, as they scored eight runs in the final two innings to tie the series up. The Astros now have to head to Kansas City for a winner-take-all Game 5. McHugh pitched well in his first start of the series, allowing two runs in six innings of work. The issue here is that he is an underdog on the road that is facing a team that had the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the majors this season. There is more risk than reward here. Give the edge to both of the pitchers playing at home today.
Pitcher Rating: 60.3
Johnny Cueto : FD: $10,500 — DK: $8,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 450.2 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 2.82 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.55 — ERA: 6.14 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.5
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Cueto has not looked like the same pitcher since coming over from the Reds. His SIERA and WHIP are both up, while his strikeout rate has been stunningly low. He had a decent outing in Game 2 of the series, striking out five batters over six innings, while allowing four earned runs. This just feels like a redemption story, as the sole purpose of acquiring Cueto was for the postseason and here he is with a chance to send his team to the ALCS after a disappointing second half of the season. The statistics don’t necessarily back the pick, but he is pitching at home against a team that had one of the highest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching this season. He is right there with Stroman as the top pitching option on the board.
Pitcher Rating: 70.0
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros have been tough on the Royals’ pitching staff in this series, but they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark tonight against Johnny Cueto, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two season. Colby Rasmus has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball recently. He remains an elite play in the outfield.
Elite Plays:
Colby Rasmus : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 613 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 85 — wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.324 — wRC+: 173
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Correa : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 280 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 136
George Springer : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 526 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 135
Jose Altuve : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1012 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.113 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.291 — wRC+: 146
Luis Valbuena : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 806 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.289 — wRC+: 196
Kansas City
The Royals draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Collin McHugh, who has allowed .279 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .301 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Ben Zobrist and Eric Hosmer both stand out as elite plays at their respective positions. Don’t be afraid to target a few Royals’ hitters here, as they have the second highest team total on the board.
Elite Plays:
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46