MLB Betting Picks & Predictions - Friday, April 30th
Take the mound with Sloan Piva as he delivers MLB picks and predictions for Friday, April 30, with lines from our favorite online sportsbooks. For more baseball betting picks, visit Scores And Odds! Also, don’t forget about the NFL Draft and Kentucky Derby odds.
Life sometimes presents us with emotional highs, followed almost immediately by uncanny lows. On Wednesday morning, I was elated to have completed my four-year Invisalign treatment and finally have straight teeth. Less than 24 hours later, I was undergoing a rather uncomfortable bone graft procedure at my periodontist’s office. What a roller coaster of a week for my mouth!
Similarly, we have endured a roller coaster of a stretch at the MLB sportsbooks. After my Bets of the Day hit the skids a bit two weeks ago, I swept my picks with a 7-0 record last week. That brought my season-long win-loss total to 16-6.
And of course, after a humble brag about that record earlier this week, my Tuesday picks promptly went 1-2. I heaped starting pitchers Max Scherzer (Washington) and Zach Eflin (Philly) each with praise, and backed them with full confidence, and both of them coughed up five runs and took Ls. Ho-hum.
But there is nothing to be ashamed of here. We will gladly take a 17-8 record going into a full Friday night slate. So, let’s forget about our Tuesday efforts, hold our heads up high, and get right back to business with smiles on our faces. Tough stretches don’t last. Tough people do—and so do well-researched bettors!
All baseball odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
Friday MLB Picks & Predictions
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs. Tarik Skubal
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-165, PointsBet)
When I logged onto PointsBet Thursday evening, I thought my post-op medications had me seeing things. How could the Yankees’ spread be -165 with their ace on the hill against the Tigers? And against Tarik Skubal, no less? Honestly, I’m bewildered that New York -1.5 isn’t -260.
But when you’re trying to get back to winning ways, you snatch up the easy money as quickly as you can. Gerrit Cole might be the most underrated (or at least understated) Yankees ace of all time. Maybe it’s because last season was mired in pandemic madness, and this season the Bronx Bombers got bombed by the opposition out of the gates. Or perhaps Cole gets slightly overlooked by the national media because his counterpart in Queens, Mets superstar ace Jacob deGrom, has been so untouchably great for so many years now.
As bettors, we have to capitalize when oddsmakers underestimate aces. Cole has a 3-1 record, a 1.71 ERA, and an AL-leading 0.726 WHIP. He also leads the league in FIP (0.72), BB/9 (0.9), SO/9 (14.2), and SO/W (16.67). The 30-year-old has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting in each of the past three seasons, and he hasn’t finished with worse than a 2.88 ERA in that span.
Starting Skubal against Cole just seems wrong. The second-year Tigers pitcher has 10 career starts, yet he has surrendered a whopping 31 earned runs. His current ERA (5.21), WHIP (1.579), and FIP (6.77) suggest the 24-year-old is not ready for this level of competition, never mind against one of the best pitchers in the world.
The Yanks may have stumbled early—and they just split a four-game series with the Orioles—but they are 6-4 in their last ten games. Their lineup has also gotten healthier, they are rocketing up the MLB leaderboards in homers, and their bullpen ERA of 2.31 ranks second in the MLB.
The Tigers have an MLB-worst 8-17 record, they average an MLB-worst 2.88 runs per game, and they have an MLB-worst -37 run differential. The Yanks will comfortably win their seventh game in 11 tries, while delivering the Tigers their 13th loss in 15 games.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Pitching Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Kohei Arihara
MLB Pick: Red Sox -160 (BetMGM)
This marks the first time I have advised bettors to select my hometown Red Sox this season, and it’s undoubtedly one of the greatest opportunities to back them. Boston has been one of the biggest surprises of this young season, scoring runs in bunches. Still, I kept thinking to myself, this team does not have the pitching to win this division. Fool me once…
Well, maybe I was fooling myself by downplaying Boston’s rotation. Nick Pivetta just outdueled the best pitcher on the planet, Jacob deGrom, leading the Sox to an eventual 1-0 win. Eduardo Rodriguez, who survived COVID-induced heart inflammation last season, has looked better than ever this year. And Nathan Eovaldi is turning back the hands of time.
Now 31 years old, Eovaldi boasts a 3-2 record and a 3.77 ERA. His 1.151 WHIP is the lowest he has enjoyed since 2018, the year he joined the Sox and played an integral part in their World Series title. He’s not blowing anyone away, but he’s also limiting damage at every turn. He has a 1.94 FIP, 27 strikeouts to just five walks, and he has yet to allow a home run in his 28.2 innings this season.
With the way Boston has swung the bat early on this season, it’s hard to stay away from the Sox in this one. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Alex Verdugo have this club leading the MLB in hits (225). The Sox also rank in the top five in the majors in runs (123), average (.261), OBP (.325), and slugging (.433).
The good times should continue for Boston against rookie pitcher Kohei Arihara and the 11-15 Rangers. On the surface, the 28-year-old Japan native’s numbers don’t look terrible: 2-2 record, 4.03 ERA. But his 1.299 WHIP, his 13/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his 4.42 innings average per start paint a different picture. Dive deeper into the advanced stats, and he looks like someone the slugging Sox will salivate over (alliteration for the win!). Arihara maintains a staggering 53.6 percent hard-hit rate, as well as a 93.2 mph average exit velocity. He yields an average slash line of .268/.330/.488.
I’ll take the Sox, but I’m not interested in their -1.5 spread in Texas. I’m always hesitant to back these guys, but I can’t convince myself to shy away from this juicy matchup. I think Arihara will be saying sayonara by the fourth inning, and Texas has the fourth-worst bullpen ERA (4.68) in the MLB. The Rangers have a run differential of -16 on the young season. Don’t overthink this one like a jaded Masshole who practices poor self-deprecating humor in his betting articles.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish vs. Logan Webb
MLB Pick: Padres -200 or -1.5 (+105, PointsBet)
Moving right along, I go from picking a team I never pick to picking a team I have picked since the preseason. My World Series Best Bet, San Diego has been slugging, burning on the basepaths, fielding efficiently, and pitching well from start to finish.
After an early IL stint (and a tough initial stretch after his activation), “(player-popup #fernando-tatis)Fernando Tatis Jr looks right back in the mix as an MVP candidate. He has absolutely dazzled at the plate, including a five-homer series against the defending-champion Dodgers last weekend. Tatis, Manny Machado, and Eric Hosmer serve as one of the better-hitting trios in baseball. Add the speed offered by Jurickson Profar and Trent Grisham, each chipping in five of San Diego’s MLB-leading 33 steals, and you’ve got a terrifying lineup.
But that’s just the start of this team’s luster. The Padres also have one of the most devastating pitching rotations in the majors, led by 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish. The ninth-year vet sports a 2-1 record, and boasts a 2.27 ERA and 0.853 WHIP. He averages 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and has 37 total Ks to just eight walks. He has only allowed one run in each of his last four games.
Logan Webb helps us easily pinpoint our third of three lopsided pitching matchups. The third-year San Fran righty’s 4.03 ERA may be lower than his 5.11 lifetime rate, but his 1.567 WHIP is the worst of his three-year career. And like the aforementioned Arihara, he averages just 4.42 innings per appearance.
The Giants may be heating up offensively, with 28 runs in their past four games, but I think they run into a brick wall in San Diego Friday. In four career games against the Giants, Darvish has allowed a batting average of .216 and an on-base percentage of .231. I’m rolling with my ride-or-dies, and hope you choose Yu, too. Wait, did somebody say U2? But I will win, with or without you!! Ok, I’m delirious… let’s move to the parlays.
More MLB Predictions
Moneyline Parlay of the Day
New York Yankees (-360) vs. Detroit Tigers (Gerrit Cole vs. Tarik Skubal) – this matchup isn’t even fair. Cole is fantastic, and Skubal and the Tigers stink. I’d throw this in a parlay up to -450!
Boston Red Sox (-160) at Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi vs. Kohei Arihara) – Eovaldi and the Sox have started hot, and Arihara and the Rangers have not. Arihara’s hard-hit rates must look very appetizing to the Sox sluggers.
San Diego Padres (-200) vs. San Francisco Giants (Yu Darvish vs. Logan Webb) – the beat goes on for the Padres, who look as dangerous as I thought they would be when I picked them to win the World Series last month. Darvish has only allowed one run in four straight games, and he has remarkable support behind him at every level of the game.
Cleveland Indians (140) at Chicago White Sox (Shane Bieber vs. Dallas Keuchel) the Tribe have won three of their past four games, and now they get the reigning AL Cy Young winner against the young White Sox. Bieber had a rare hiccup performance against the Yanks last time out, and will be looking to rebound quickly.
Total Parlay Odds: +435
Bet: $100 |To Win: $435 |Total Payout: $535
Spread Parlay of the Day
New York Yankees -1.5 (-165) vs. Detroit Tigers (Gerrit Cole vs. Tarik Skubal) – the Yankees at home, with Cole on the mound against Skubal? Sounds good to me.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105) vs. San Francisco Giants (Yu Darvish vs. Logan Webb) – I also love Darvish at home, with the surging Padres clicking on all cylinders.
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-200) at Cincinnati Reds (Jake Arrieta vs. Wade Miley) – Arrieta looked fantastic last time out against the Brewers (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 8 SO), and the Cubs just put up nine runs in their series finale win in Atlanta. Miley gave up zero runs in his first two games, but has given up six combined over his last two. I’ll take Chicago getting a run here.
Total Parlay Odds: +395
Bet: $80 |To Win: $316 |Total Payout: $396
Baseball Odds at Online Sportsbooks
Image Credit: Imagn