FREE TODAY - MLB Pitching Primer: Thursday, June 28th
Everything in the sport of baseball comes down to the hitter-versus-pitcher matchup – which makes pitching the most important element of MLB DFS play. Without an understanding of the best pitching plays on the day, your DFS efforts will be sunk! Each day, the Pitching Primer will provide you with some of the top pitching plays on the day – taking a close look at the “why” behind these picks, and helping you to identify pitchers others might overlook.
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Thursday, June 28th
Early Slate
Welcome to Thursday, where today we have another split slate of baseball, with FanDuel running a six-game slate starting at 12:10 PM ET with the Arizona – Miami game, and DraftKings and FantasyDraft excluding that game on their early slate and running a five-game slate starting at 1:10PM ET. All sites are running a four-game main slate starting at 7:05PM ET, and numerous slates in between as well, including a full day of single-game slates on FanDuel. Let’s dig in!
On FanDuel, the addition of the Diamondbacks – Marlins game adds a significant pitcher in Zack Greinke. Greinke has the second-strongest odds of any pitcher on the early slate, as a -165 favorite facing a Marlins team that ranks 10th in K% and 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Greinke has pitched well so far this year with a 9.56 K/9, 3.66 ERA (3.30 SIERA), and 1.11 WHIP, and is the safest pitcher on the slate that I can see, priced at $9,800.
The most expensive pitcher on the slate is Clayton Kershaw priced at $10,500, and Kershaw has the best odds as well as a -175 favorite facing the Cubs in Dodgers Stadium. Kershaw is making his second start since returning from the Disabled List, and his first start was essentially a rehab start with Kershaw lasting only three innings and giving up two earned runs, while allowing five hits and striking out four. How much you trust Kershaw will be a major decision point across sites this morning – Kershaw’s numbers just aren’t as dominant as we are used to seeing with increased walks, decreased strikeouts, and starts shortened by injury, but he still has a 9.87 K/9, 2.94 ERA (3.24 SIERA), and 1.17 WHIP, and if word is that he will get an extended leash today, he is worth definite consideration near his lowest price point of the season. I will be using Kershaw in tournaments only unless I hear news that he will be getting an extended pitch count today.
The Kershaw question takes on greater significance on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where we don’t have the safety of Greinke, and we need to choose two pitchers. In this case, I’m more inclined to use Kershaw in cash games if it looks like he will go at least five innings, although we are getting less of a discount with the Dodgers ace priced at $11,700 on DraftKings and $23,100 on FantasyDraft. Sean Manaea is the second-most expensive pitcher about $1000 less than Kershaw, but I am tempted to skip over Manaea entirely facing a Tigers team that ranks 29th in K% and 7th in wOBA against left-handers this season. I don’t really understand why Manaea’s price is so high today, a $4000 increase from two starts ago.
Jon Gray gives the best combination of safety and upside, with his 11.45 K/9 and 3.16 SIERA, and priced at $9,500 on DraftKings and $18,800 on FantasyDraft, he has the best point-per-dollar projection on the slate. Gray is worth definite consideration in tournaments on FanDuel as well, with his $8,400 price tag.
For cheaper pitchers with upside, my top option is Jake Odorizzi facing the White Sox in Chicago. The White Sox rank 5th in K% and 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching, and Odorizzi is a solid -135 favorite being opposed by Lucas Giolito. Odorizzi has definite blow-up potential as evidenced by his 1.2 IP, 6 ER start against the Rangers on Saturday, but at $6,500 on FanDuel, $6,300 on DraftKings, and $13,000 on FantasyDraft, he will allow you whichever bats you choose in tournaments.
Our unknown pitcher of the day is Jimmy Yacabonis, recalled by the Orioles from AAA to start against the Mariners today. Yacabonis has a 15.43 ERA in 2.1 innings of work out of the bullpern this season, but at least his SIERA sits a full four runs lower at 11.07. All kidding aside, Yacabonis has put up a 3.14 ERA in thirteen starts at AAA this season, and a 1.32 ERA in 41 relief appearances in AAA last season, as well as a 4.35 ERA in the majors in 20.2 innings of relief work last season. He doesn’t strike out many hitters with a career 3.52 K/9 in the majors and I wouldn’t use him for anything other than a small sample of tournament teams, but he’s our cheapest pitcher of the day at $5,500 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings, and $8,100 on FantasyDraft.
Main Slate
Arms To Trust
Lance McCullers at Tampa Bay Rays
Aaron Nola vs Washington Nationals
McCullers and Nola are the clear top two pitchers on the slate, and they come in with similar numbers with McCullers carrying a 3.82 ERA (3.68 SIERA), 9.45 K/9, and 1.19 WHIP, and Nola putting up a 2.58 ERA (3.50 SIERA), 8.79 K/9, and 1.02 WHIP so far this season. They are priced as the top two arms on this small slate, but interestingly McCullers is the more expensive of the two on FanDuel at $10,400 compared to Nola’s $9,700 price tag, while Nola is the more expensive on DraftKings ($12,100 compared to McCullers at $11,100) and FantasyDraft ($22,900 for Nola, $21,600 for McCullers).
McCullers has an edge in his opponent tonight, facing a Rays team that is 14th in K% and 20th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, while Nola faces a Nationals offense that ranks 22nd in K% and has finally started getting some of their key left-handed hitters back in Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton. Overall I give the slight edge to McCullers tonight, put the difference between the two isn’t huge, and for cash games, I’d drop down to Nola on FanDuel if it helps you fit in some better bets. In tournaments, I’ll be going heavily on both of these pitchers on the short slate, and possibly overweighting the more expensive of the two pitchers hoping to get smaller ownership depending on the site I’m playing.
Upside Arm
Tanner Roark at Philadelphia Phillies
Roark usually fits the mold of a steadier, reliable pitcher than an upside arm, but tonight he is taking on a Phillies team that ranks first in the league in K% against right-handed pitching, giving him some strikeout upside that he is usually lacking. Roark’s numbers are consistent with his previous season, putting up a 4.27 ERA (4.36 SIERA), 1.24 WHIP, and 7.67 K/9, and he has decent odds as only a slight underdog in a tough matchup on the road against Aaron Nola.
Priced as the fourth-most expensive pitcher across the board at $7,300 on FanDuel, $7,100 on DraftKings, and $14,100 on FantasyDraft, Roark should be able to put up good value with some strikeout upside if the Nationals can pull the mild upset tonight.
Overlooked Difference-Maker
Ryan Yarbrough vs Houston Astros
Ryne Stanek will be starting for the Rays tonight, which means Ryan Yarbrough will likely be coming on for an extended relief appearance after one or two innings. Yarbrough has fared well in this role so far this season, with a 3.96 ERA (4.03 SIERA), 1.29 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9, and priced cheaply at $6,100 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings, and $11,300 on FantasyDraft, it can be tempting to fit him in as an SP2 to load up on expensive bats.
This may not be the best night to pull the trigger on that strategy however, on a short slate where many of the most expensive bats would be the very Astros team Yarbrough is facing. The Astros rank 3rd in the league in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and 25th in K%. There may be a good night for the Tampa bullpen strategy, but outside of a few longshot teams if multi-entering in tournaments, I’ll probably avoid Tampa pitchers tonight.
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