My Journey / Your Winnings - Week 1
I am as excited about this article as I have been about anything I have written for RotoGrinders – ever.
If you have followed my DFS journey, you may know that I lost a lot of money in NBA last year. (A whole lot!) You may also know that I finally started to turn things around over the last couple months of the 2014-2015 NBA season, and that I spent the “offseason” studying NBA further in order to figure out how to take advantage of this sport that yields to those who “really get it” the most consistent and reliable DFS profits.
I have written a RotoAcademy course on Everything You Need To Know For Transitioning From NFL to NBA. If you are trying to make that switch yourself – or if you are hoping to figure out how you can start profiting in NBA more consistently – I strongly suggest picking up that course. If you genuinely cannot afford the $9.95 that course costs, hit me up on Twitter and I’ll get you a copy for free. Seriously. The course is just that valuable for those making this transition – valuable enough that I care more about you having it in your hands than about making money off the work I put into that course (although, you know…if you do have the $9.95, buy the course! – I put a lot of work into it).
Every Friday, this article will serve as an extension of that course. This article will not contain advanced stats and information (if you’re looking for that, check out Notorious’ Grind Down – duh – and also check back in the Incentives section of RotoGrinders when NFL ends, as I will be replacing my NFL Edge with a weekly NBA Edge), but this article will do three things each week:
1) It will serve as a platform for “absolute transparency” in my 2015-2016 NBA journey, as I publicly track my performance throughout the season.
2) As I walk through my plays from the previous week, this article will enable me to share my thought process on those plays – which will be valuable for those who are either transitioning from NFL to NBA or trying to become better at NBA.
3) It will give me a chance to share some tips or picks with you each Friday, for the “big slate” in play that night!
Your tasks:
Read this article
Check out my RotoAcademy course on Everything You Need To Know For Transitioning From NFL to NBA
Let your NFL DFS buddies know about this article as well (Seriously! – because the best way to make money in NBA, in my mind, is through double-ups, and there is plenty of room in double-ups for you AND your friends to succeed; NBA is a lot more fun when you have friends you can text about it each day, so point your friends this way.)
MY NBA JOURNEY – WEEKS 1 AND 2.
Through the conclusion of the 11/4/15 NBA slate, I have played only three NBA slates on the season. I spent these three slates trying to get a feel for how I want to approach my buy-ins each night. I have now settled down with the plan I will maintain for at least the next couple weeks: $45 each night in double-ups, $15 each night in tourneys, and $80 each night in head-to-heads. I will be playing primarily on DraftKings, due to my preference for the availability of late swap in NBA, though I will surely play some nights on FanDuel instead – particularly when I spot juicy pricing inefficiencies.
Here is my breakdown from the first three nights:
Night 1:
$105 risked ($99 in double-ups; $6 in tourneys)
$122 profited ($99 in double-ups; $23 in tourneys)
Night 2:
$95 risked ($35 in double-ups; $8 in tourneys; $52 in head-to-heads)
$54 profited ($35 in double-ups; $10 in tourneys; $9 in head-to-heads)
Night 3:
$133 risked ($45 in double-ups; $8 in tourneys; $80 in head-to-heads)
$261 profited ($45 in double-ups; $152 in tourneys; $64 in head-to-heads)
Total profit on the season: $437
Profit breakdown:
$185 in tourneys ($22 risked)
$179 in double-ups ($179 risked)
$73 in head-to-heads ($132 risked)
Double-up record: 3-0 – 100% (cash rate required to profit: 51%)
H2H record: 57-9 – 86% (cash rate required to profit: 56%)
(Yes – this is as good as those cash rates will look all season! Enjoy it while it lasts…)
LOOKING BACK ON THE FIRST TWO WEEKS
The first slate I played was the opening night slate with only three games. This was a smaller slate than I usually like to play, but hey, it was opening night. I finished near the top of double-ups that night and had a nice little cash in tourneys ($23 in profit off a pair of $3 tourney entries). That was two weeks ago, so I don’t really remember the specifics of that slate.
The second slate was played on DraftKings the night of 11/3/15:
$5000 – Jrue Holiday; 28.00 points
$4200 – Kent Bazemore; 22.75 points
$5600 – Marcus Morris; 26.25 points
$10500 – Anthony Davis; 37.75 points
$8200 – Andre Drummond; 68.75 points
$5900 – Emmanuel Mudiay; 33.50 points
$6300 – Kenneth Faried; 47.75 points
$4000 – Willie Cauley-Stein; 22.75 points
I made one horrific mistake that night: rostering Bazemore over Evan Fournier (Fournier has a lot more responsibility on the Magic’s offense than Bazemore has on the Hawks’ offense). I put up 287 DraftKings points, but my score would have been 312 with Fournier (which would have been the difference between “top 10% in tournaments” and “top 2% in tournaments”). Anthony Davis’ point-per-dollar dud against the Magic was my only real disappointment, but on a night with very little else to pay up for, I would make that play again. Everything else on my team went well (though Bazemore “passing value” at 22 points still felt awful when Fournier put up 47 for $100 less – at high ownership!), with my best play being Kenneth Faried at the Lakers (a play I made due to extra minutes going his way with injuries in the Nuggets’ frontcourt; most of the field was on Julius Randle instead of Faried, which provided a nice edge when Randle missed about five minutes of the game with an eye injury and ultimately fell 19.5 points shy of what Faried put up). My biggest risk was Jrue Holiday on a minutes limit at $5000 (I figured Holiday in 25 minutes at $5k was better than most other point guards in 32 minutes at $5k; I was barely right, as Holiday nudged past the 5x salary mark we like to aim for).
The third slate was played on DraftKings the night of 11/4/15:
$3600 – T.J. McConnell; 36.25 points
$7400 – DeMar DeRozan; 41.75 points
$8000 – Paul George; 50.00 points
$4100 – Jordan Hill; 33.00 points
$5800 – Tyson Chandler; 22.75 points
$6700 – Brandon Knight; 34.00 points
$4400 – Evan Fournier; 45.50 points
$10,100 – Stephen Curry; 48.75 points
I went 40-0 in head-to-heads on this night and finished 29th out of 17,200 in DraftKings’ $5 tourney – notching the 312 points I had failed to hit the night before. I started with an all-value team (as I advise doing in my RotoAcademy course on Everything You Need To Know For Transitioning From NFL to NBA), then I found places to pay up from there. With a lot of great value available on this slate, the biggest issue was “finding places to pay up,” as I liked the “all-value team” I had built with $13k in salary leftover! I used T.J. McConnell as my cheap point guard where most used Jerryd Bayless (Bayless would be sharing time on the court with Greivis Vasquez, whereas McConnell was likely to have PG duties to himself; the discrepancy in ownership between McConnell and Bayless had mostly to do with the fact that the news Bayless would be starting came out much earlier than the news McConnell would be starting, causing fewer people to gravitate toward the latter), and I used Paul George as my expensive small forward where most used Kawhi Leonard, gaining a nice edge on the field (I liked each guy a lot; I liked George slightly more because of the lower likelihood of a blowout and the increased rebounding opportunities against the Celtics). I also used Jordan Hill at power forward (with Ian Mahinmi out for the game, Hill was starting for the Pacers vs the rebounding-deficient and up-tempo Celtics) and paid up for DeMar DeRozan in a shootout with OKC. My one mistake was Tyson Chandler at center. I didn’t much care for Chandler, but I had Festus Ezeli (starting for the injured Andrew Bogut) and $1900 leftover; moving up to Chandler was the only place I saw where I could maybe raise my ceiling further, and with DeMarcus Cousins sitting for the Kings, I felt Chandler could put up points against them…if the game remained close enough for him to play a full complement of minutes (which did not end up being the case).
TONIGHT’S SLATE – SOME THOUGHTS TO CONSIDER
I’m not exactly sure what form this bottom portion of the article will take each week (knowing myself, it will probably take a slightly different form each week), but I do know this will generally be a “tips and picks” article. I’m going to mix in as much in the way of “what I was thinking” (i.e., as much in the way of “strategy”) as I can when I break down the previous week’s rosters above, and I am going to then use this bottom portion of the article to talk about that night’s slate.
So…yeah. Let’s talk about tonight’s slate!
The main thing I want to advise you to realize, as you dive deeper into NBA, is that you can never assume you have your “final roster” set until the moment rosters lock (or, if playing on a site with late swap, until the moment each player locks), as late-breaking injury news is the norm in NBA, and players will sit out for everything from a hurt toe to a hangnail. Oftentimes, there will be little warning on portions of the injury news, and even the injury news you know you need to have in order to make your decisions will rarely come out until you have about five minutes left in which to make those decisions.
Because of this, two things that are very valuable for you to do are:
1) Know the slate fairly well before you reach that “last five minutes before rosters lock” crunch time. By having a good idea, in advance, of the players you like at each position, you will be able to quickly adjust when injury news emerges.
2) Know the injury news you are waiting on! By knowing, in advance, the injury news you are waiting on, you will be able to watch for developments in this news, and will be able to put yourself in position to build a roster you will be happy with regardless of what the news on these players ultimately ends up being.
In our exploration of tonight’s slate, we are going to focus on Point 2: taking a look at some of the injury news we will be waiting on tonight, and some of the places you might want to look in order to take advantage of players who might be missing.
Orlando Magic: Nikola Vucevic is going to miss tonight’s game with a bruised knee. While Dewayne Dedmon will be starting in his place, and will make for a nice, low-salary fill-in, it is also important to realize that Vuc is an important offensive piece for the Magic, with a 21.1 Usage Rate. That offensive work will not go entirely toward Dewayne Dedmon, which means we’ll also see a bump in value for some of the other Magic starters – with Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo being the likeliest beneficiaries.
Cleveland Cavaliers: J.R. Smith will be out again tonight, with Richard Jefferson starting in his place. What does this mean for you? Frankly, it doesn’t mean much; the Cavs are playing at home against the 76ers and should blow them out of the building, which means starters are unlikely to see the court in the fourth quarter – making nearly everyone on the Cavs overpriced.
Boston Celtics: Marcus Smart is a game-time decision with a toe injury. He missed a couple nights ago, and Isaiah Thomas played 36 minutes (he was playing around 29 minutes per game beforehand) and poured in 27 points. If Smart is out again, look for Thomas to pick up the slack once more.
Milwaukee Bucks: Michael Carter-Williams is expected to miss tonight’s game, which means Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez will be filling in once more at point guard. While the two will see a bit of overlap on the floor together, they will mostly split minutes. While Vasquez is probably the better bet for fantasy-points-per-minutes, Bayless is a better bet to see 30 minutes of floor time. Each guy makes for a solid salary-saver.
New Orleans Pelicans: Omer Asik is questionable for tonight’s game against the Hawks with a calf injury. If he is out, Alexis Ajinca will fill in for him against the team with the third-worst rebounding differential in the NBA.
Indiana Pacers: No further news has emerged (that I can find) on Ian Mahinmi and C.J. Miles. Each guy missed Wednesday’s game against the Celtics, with Jordan Hill and Lavoy Allen filling in for them. Each backup – Hill in particular – makes for a decent play tonight if they are starting, though the Heat provide a tougher frontcourt matchup than the Celtics provided on Wednesday.
Denver Nuggets: Several Nuggets players are likely to be out with injury tonight. The Nuggets are also playing on the back-half of a back-to-back set, at Golden State. They are likely to get demolished tonight, and you probably do not want any Nuggets on your roster.
Golden State Warriors: Andrew Bogut has yet to pass through concussion protocol, and will probably be out again in this one. Festus Ezeli will start in his place if that is the case; although this is a great matchup, you will want to tread lightly, as Ezeli may not see the court in the fourth quarter of this likely blowout.
Houston Rockets: Have fun trying to sort through this one before the early games lock! Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are likely to be out – increasing Ty Lawson’s minutes, and making Marcus Thornton a great value play. Also, Dwight Howard is expected to sit out at least one game of most back-to-back sets, and some speculation has tonight being the game the Rockets will elect to sit him. If this is the case, Clint Capela should start in his place and will make a great fill-in option – particularly as the Rockets are facing a Kings team that is likely to be without DeMarcus Cousins.
Sacramento Kings: If Cousins misses another game with his achilles injury, Willie Cauley-Stein will have extra responsibility (though there is risk that the Rockets go small if Howard is out, and Cauley-Stein hits the bench for longer than expected as a result), and Kosta Koufos will be a great bet for close to 30 minutes and great production while he’s in.
Pay attention to the news on these players today, and get comfortable with the guys you like at all ends of the price range. It should be easy to find value tonight; from there, you’ll just have to pick the right places to pay up, and you’ll be in great position to profit!
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards tonight! – and hopefully I’ll see you back here next Friday as well, for our next installment of this article.