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NBA Correlation Stacking: Friday, February 26th

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2016-02-28 04:22:58

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Welcome to the first edition of the NBA Correlation Stacking series, which will shed insight on stacking strategies in large field tournaments. While stacking isn’t usually a recommended strategy in cash games, it’s a high risk/high reward play that has massive upside in GPPs; if the team or game you stack stays close or potentially goes to overtime, you’re likely to reap the benefits.

I’ll not only be breaking down potential stacks of individual teams, but will also note players on the opposite bench that fit into a full fledged game stack. It’s rare that I’ll stack more than two players from a particular team without also rostering one of their opponents. Also, it’s worth noting that since this article is written on Friday’s where there are typically 8-10 games, I won’t usually recommend stacking more than 2-3 players on the same team. Stacking 3+ players from the same team is typically a better strategy on small slates.

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Wizards

This game is actually very important for the Wizards playoff chances. They are three games out of the 8-seed and dropping a game to the team at the bottom of the conference would not be a good look. They’re also in a very tough stretch in terms of games played (they opened the ASB with a back-to-back-to-back and played another B2B set on Tuesday and Wednesday), but they didn’t play yesterday and don’t play tomorrow, so the starters shouldn’t be limited at all.

John Wall is an elite play in any format against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 22nd against the PG position. When these teams met in early February, Wall posted a triple-double (18pts, 13reb, 10ast) in 33 minutes of action; with tonight’s game expected to be closer, we can assume he’ll see a slight uptick in playing time (closer to his average of 36 MPG). I’d guess that Chris Paul will carry a higher ownership in GPPs given his opponent and the ability to game stack with Cousins and/or Rondo, which also works out well for Wall. Pairing him up with Marcin Gortat is the most straightforward way to stack the Wizards, as the Sixers rank dead last at defending the center position. Gortat put up 21 and 13 against Philly in the first meeting between these teams and a similar stat line is not out of the question here. The one concern with Gortat is that his playing time hasn’t consistently been over the 30 minute mark, but the match-up negates some of that concern.

If you want to go against the grain, both Jared Dudley and Nene Hilario have appeal, but for very different reasons. If the Sixers stay big and play both Noel and Okafor 30+ minutes, Nene would figure to benefit as Dudley would struggle to defend either one of them. Dudley played 34 minutes in the first meeting, but Jahlil Okafor saw just 21 minutes because of foul trouble. Nene did not play in that game.

Top Stack – John Wall and Marcin Gortat

Value Stack – Pair either Dudley or Nene with Wall and/or Gortat

Sixers

I won’t have much exposure to the Philly side tonight, but if you’re shooting to stack this game, pairing a Wizards stack with Ish Smith and either Noel or Okafor has some contrarian appeal. Smith’s playing time has dropped off considerably (he hasn’t played more than 27 minutes in any of the last three games), but his usage remains sky high while he’s on the floor, so an uptick in playing time could lead to a GPP-winning performance. I’m not counting on that tonight though and won’t have much (if any) exposure to Smith. Neither Noel or Okafor are in favorable spots tonight but both still have very high ceilings relative to their prices.

Contrarian Stack – Ish Smith with either Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor (with John Wall and/or Marcin Gortat)

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Hornets

I’ll preface by saying that this game doesn’t hold any “core” plays, but it is expected to stay competitive. The Hornets have become a bit boring to target lately now that the front-court is crowded again, but Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum remain solid GPP plays. Walker’s price skyrocketed after his white-hot January, but it’s finally leveling out again. Pairing him up with Batum is nice because the two don’t sieve much value from each other; Walker produces nearly 58% of his FPs through points, while Batum is more of a well-rounded contributor (48% points, 25% rebounds, 27% assists).

Contrarian Stack – Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum

Pacers

Myles Turner is far and away my favorite option on the Indiana side. The Hornets struggle most with opposing PFs and Turner’s ability to contribute in a variety of ways makes him very appealing at under $6K on FanDuel. When he’s blocking shots his ceiling is sky high, so the fact that Charlotte has allowed the 4th most blocked shots only makes him more appealing. Pairing him with Paul George is a viable strategy in this spot, as the Hornets rank 22nd against opposing SFs this season. While Turner has been shooting the ball more lately, he and George correlate much better compared to a George / Monta Ellis pairing.

If you are really digging deep, Ian Mahinmi also has some GPP appeal on both major sites. His price has come down over the past few weeks and he has been a very solid per-minute producer this season. Monta Ellis also has some contrarian upside, but he’s absolutely not a guy I’d pair with Paul George in this spot. Those two don’t correlate well given that they are both ball-dominant players.

Top Stack – Paul George and Myles Turner

Contrarian Stack – Monta Ellis and Myles Turner

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Magic

Orlando is coming off of a home loss to the Warriors and had to travel to New York late last night. The appeal here isn’t as strong as it was last night, but the same players we targeted yesterday are also options tonight. Evan Fournier has been playing massive minutes lately and should continue to do so tonight. The match-up isn’t great but he should hit value on FanDuel ($5,500) based on volume alone. He’s less appealing on DraftKings where he’s more expensive (and you’re only required to play one SG). Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are also squarely in play, although none of them are “core” targets.

Top Stack – Any combination of Fournier, Oladipo, Gordon and Vucevic. I tend to separate Fournier and Oladipo in Orlando stacks, although with Tobias Harris out of the picture playing them together is much more viable. Playing all four of them on a full slate is not a wise move, but pairing 2 or 3 of them up while also rostering either Carmelo Anthony or Kristaps Porzingis has plenty of upside.

New York

Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Robin Lopez are all in play tonight. Melo is a stronger play over at DraftKings where he’s still hovering around $8K, while Porzingis is the preferred target on FanDuel at only $6,300. I tend to not pair up Melo and Porzingis together, so my preferred stack in this spot would be pairing Melo with Robin Lopez, who should be counted on to play fairly big minutes to counter Nikola Vucevic.

Top Stack – Carmelo Anthony and Robin Lopez

Contrarian Stack – Kristaps Porzingis and Robin Lopez

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Cavaliers

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Despite Kyrie Irving coming on strong over the past 2-3 weeks, LeBron James hasn’t taken a step back in terms of fantasy output. I won’t be pairing them up tonight given the match-up, and don’t really envision myself stacking Cleveland at all tonight. Instead, I’ll pair LeBron up with either Kyle Lowry and/or DeMar DeRozan – if this game stays close as expected, all three should play massive minutes.

Toronto

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the only Raptors on my tournament radar. Lowry has the better match-up (Cleveland ranks 18th against PGs while ranking 6th against SGs), so pairing him up with LeBron will be my most likely course of action in this spot. Playing both Lowry and DeRozan has merit also, as the two eat up a huge chunk of the Raptors offensive output. DeRozan is very scoring dependent (67% of his FPs come from points), while Lowry is more of an all-around asset (54% points, 15% rebounds, 25% assists).

Top Stack – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (with LeBron James)

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Bulls

The Bulls outlook completely depends on the status of Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol. Both are questionable for tonight at this point, although some of the Bulls beat writers seem to think it’s more likely that Rose sits out. If that’s the case, Gasol and E’Twaun Moore become very strong plays. If Gasol is ruled out, both Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis are elite punt plays, and Rose would also be an elite option if he suits up. Playing both Gibson and Portis together would be viable without Gasol given that the Hawks have two big bodies at the 4 and 5 spots that eat up 30+ minutes apiece.

Top Stack (assuming Rose sits and Gasol plays) – E’Twaun Moore and Pau Gasol

Top Stack (assuming Rose plays and Gasol sits) – Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson and/or Bobby Portis

Value Stack (assuming Rose and Gasol sit) – E’Twaun Moore, Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis

Contrarian Stack (assuming both Rose and Gasol play, better suited for late-swap sites) – Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol

Hawks

The Hawks are a fairly straightforward team to target at the moment. Paul Millsap and Al Horford are playing very well at the moment, but pairing the two together in GPPs is not something I do regularly. However, with Horford’s minutes trending upward (he’s played at least 35 minutes in 5 of the last 6 games), playing them together is more viable now than it has been in the past. However, I’m more likely to pair one of them up with Jeff Teague, whose minutes have also been trending in the right direction. He did play just 18 minutes against Milwaukee on the 20th, but that had more to do with a minor ailment than anything else. Almost all of Teague’s production comes from points and assists, while Millsap and Horford are both very well rounded performers.

Top Stack – Paul Millsap or Al Horford with Jeff Teague

Contrarian Stack – Millsap, Horford and Teague (with 1-2 Bulls depending on injury news)

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Nuggets

I’m not interested in exposing myself much to this contest. Denver is a tough team to stack at this point with the back-court now very crowded with the addition of D.J. Augustin and a healthy Jameer Nelson. Danilo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic are the two Nuggets that I’ll have some exposure to. Gallo’s production has been down a bit lately, and that translates to his reduction in rebounding over the course of February (he’s had 4 or fewer rebounds in 8 of his last 10 games). Most of his production comes via points (64%), so he’s almost always going to disappoint when he doesn’t post 20+ actual points. Jokic on the other hand produces in a variety of categories (44% points, 34% rebounds, 14% assists, 9% steals), which is why I’ve been stacking him up with Gallinari over the past week. Playing time is the biggest concern for Jokic, but when he exceeds 25 minutes of court time it’s going to be tough for him to miss value while he’s priced in the mid-range. Neither Gallo or Jokic will be popular tonight.

Contrarian Stack – Danilo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic

Mavericks

The Mavericks are a really tough team to stack. The production is very spread out and the Mavs propensity to ease up on their veterans makes it a situation to avoid. While they are in an appealing match-up, I won’t have any exposure to the Dallas side tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Clippers

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This is far and away the most mouth-watering game on tonight’s slate. The total is massive and the spread is close, which is a perfect equation for fantasy goodness. There are a variety of ways you can stack up the Clippers in this one, but Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan should be staples in any LA exposure you have.

Paul is the top play at the PG spot, while Jordan’s upside is massive against the Kings. Sacramento doesn’t defend any particular position well, so both Paul and Jordan are likely to exceed value if this one plays out as expected. The best part about playing them together is that they correlate extremely well; Paul assists a large number of Jordan’s buckets, and the two produce in very different manners. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford are also strong options at the SG spot, where the Kings rank dead last in terms of DvP. If you are really digging deep, Wesley Johnson is also in play with Paul Pierce ruled out for tonight.

Top Stack #1 – Chris Paul, Jamal Crawford and DeAndre Jordan

Top Stack #2 – Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and DeAndre Jordan

Value Stack – Wesley Johnson and Jamal Crawford with either Paul or Jordan

Kings

Rajon Rondo has been downgraded to questionable which throws a wrench into the equation given that we likely won’t have word on his status before FanDuel rosters lock. Assuming he goes, pairing him with DeMarcus Cousins is the obvious avenue to take. Those two have the ball in their hands very often and given that they run a lot of P&Rs together, Rondo will assist on most of Cousins buckets. Rondo also only racks up 31% of his fantasy output through points (47% comes via assists) while the large majority of Cousins production comes via points and rebounds. Rudy Gay is also very much in play, but he’s much tougher to stack up with Cousins. If Rondo ends up sitting, Darren Collison will be the strongest value option on the slate (something to keep in mind for late-swap players).

Top Stack (assuming Rondo plays) – Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins

Value Stack (assuming Rondo sits) – Darren Collison with either Cousins or Rudy Gay

Contrarian Stack (assuming Rondo plays) – Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins (very few DFS lineups will feature all three)

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Grizzlies

With Marc Gasol out for the year and Jeff Green out of town, a lot of value has opened up on the Memphis side. Mike Conley and Zach Randolph are still vastly underpriced given their improved roles, as is Matt Barnes who is coming off of a 40 FP performance against this same Lakers team. All three are elite options in any format tonight, and playing all three is a viable strategy (especially if Tony Allen, who is questionable, sits out). If you’re looking to differentiate in your Memphis exposure, JaMychal Green has taken on a bigger role with Gasol out and he will continue to be lightly-owned with most of the field gravitating towards Randolph. Conley and Z-Bo correlate very well together considering they play a lot of their minutes together and don’t produce FPs in the same manner.

Top Stack #1 – Mike Conley and Zach Randolph

Top Stack #2 – Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Matt Barnes

Top Stack #3 – Mike Conley and Matt Barnes

Value Stack – Mike Conley, Matt Barnes and JaMychal Green

Lakers

The Los Angeles side isn’t nearly as appealing from a fantasy perspective, but there are still some options here. D’Angelo Russell’s price hasn’t caught up to his role as a starter, and he’s coming off of a very strong performance against this same team (22pts, 8asts, 4reb, 1to). Pairing him up with one of the Grizzlies stacks listed above is a nice way to heavily expose yourself to this game; if Conley, Randolph and Barnes play big minutes, Russell is likely to as well. Julius Randle is the only other Laker I’m considering tonight; while the DvP isn’t in his favor, the Grizzlies are much less imposing without Marc Gasol anchoring the defense. Randle is a fine tournament play, but I’ll likely only use him in lineups where I’m playing multiple Grizzlies.

Top Stack – D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle (with a combination of Conley, Randolph and Barnes)

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Stephen Keech (SBK)