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NBA Correlation Stacking: Friday, March 11th

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2016-03-13 22:52:36

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Welcome to the NBA Correlation Stacking series, which will shed insight on stacking strategies in large field tournaments. While stacking isn’t usually a recommended strategy in cash games, it’s a high risk/high reward play that has massive upside in GPPs; if the team or game you stack stays competitive, you’re likely to reap the benefits.

I’ll not only be breaking down potential stacks of individual teams, but will also note players on the opposite bench that fit into a full fledged game stack. It’s rare that I’ll stack more than two players from a particular team without also rostering one of their opponents. Also, it’s worth noting that since this article is written on Friday’s where there are typically 8-10 games, I won’t usually recommend stacking more than 2-3 players on the same team. Stacking 3+ players from the same team is typically a better strategy on small slates. Instead of breaking down every game on tonight’s slate, I’ll hand pick the top handful of match-ups to touch on.

Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers – 07:00 PM

Philadelphia

Jahlil Okafor won’t play tonight and Nerlens Noel appears to be healthy enough to take on a normal minutes load judging by his 32 minutes of court time on Wednesday. This makes the Sixers a more straightforward team to stack, as Ish Smith and Nerlens Noel correlate well and should both see a healthy allotment of court time. When Smith and Noel are on the floor together without Okafor (845 possessions), 57% of Smith’s assists (on 2PT baskets only) go to Noel, and the fact that these two contribute in very different ways also helps. Smith racks up 46% of his FPs via points, with 36% coming on assists; Noel is a very well rounded contributor that can rack up points quickly through defensive stats. Robert Covington and Jerami Grant are also in favorable spots tonight, so pairing either of them up with Smith or Noel also makes sense.

Top Stack: Ish Smith and Nerlens Noel (Covington and Grant are also very much in play)

Brooklyn

The Nets are not a team I’ll be stacking tonight despite the plus match-up with the Sixers. While they are in a good spot, it’s hard to count on consistent production outside of Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez, a duo that does not correlate well. Neither Donald Sloan or Shane Larkin seems to be able to run away with the PG job, and the wing spots are also very crowded (with underwhelming fantasy assets) at the moment. Thaddeus Young has had much better success against the Sixers this year (averaging 20/10 over two games) compared to Brook Lopez, who has struggled mightily in both meetings with Philly this year. Jahlil Okafor did play in both of those games though, so tonight could be a different story for Lopez. It’s hard to envision him struggling again given the Sixers defensive issues in the post.

Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics – 07:30 PM

Rockets

Pairing James Harden and Dwight Howard wasn’t something I was fond of earlier in the season, but with Howard’s minutes spiking during February and March, it’s become a more viable strategy. This game has a 222 total and it’s expected to stay close throughout, so I’ll be firing away so Rockets/Celtics game stacks that include both Harden and Howard. With Harden, Howard, Ariza and Beverley on the floor together (1560 possessions), over half of Harden’s assists (54%) on 2PT baskets have went to Howard with Patrick Beverley being a distant 2nd place (13%). To be fair, about half of Beverley and Ariza’s FG attempts come from 3PT range, but the way the Rockets offense plays out does lead to Harden and Howard running the P&R together. It seems like the Celtics are always involved in barn-burners on Friday nights, so pair up Harden and Howard and hope that the trend continues. Playing either one of them solo is also a fine strategy.

Top Stack: James Harden and Dwight Howard (Harden and Ariza also tend to correlate well)

Celtics

The Celtics have been a tough team to stack this year. Isaiah Thomas always seems to get his, but outside of him the production is generally spread out and the fact that Brad Stevens likes to run a deep rotation doesn’t help either. Thomas is an elite target tonight against a Rockets team that plays at a fast pace (6th highest) and hasn’t done a great job at defending the PG spot this season. Patrick Beverley has started to play huge minutes with Ty Lawson out of town which does hurt Thomas’ upside, but he’s still a very strong target in a game that should stay close. If you want to pair Thomas with another Celtic, you have a few options – Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger. Bradley is a fine target against the porous defense of James Harden, but he doesn’t correlate all that well with IT2. When those four (Thomas, Bradley, Crowder and Sullinger) are on the floor together, 40% of Thomas’ assists on 2PT FGs go to Sullinger while just 19% head in Bradley’s direction (Crowder sits at 20%). Of Thomas’ assists on 3PT makes, 44% of those do head in Bradley’s direction, but the fact that Bradley is so scoring dependent (which Thomas is also to a degree) makes him harder to pair with IT2. Jae Crowder receives 35% of Thomas’ assists on 3PT makes, and his ability to rebound and rack up defensive stats makes him my top option to pair with Thomas. The Rockets are also near the bottom of the league in terms of defending SFs. Crowder secures 54% of his FPs through scoring, with 23% coming via rebounds and 17% coming on steals/blocks.

Top Stack: Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder

Contrarian Stacks: Isaiah Thomas and Jared Sullinger; Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City – 08:00 PM

Timberwolves

The Wolves are one of my favorite teams to stack as the production among their starters is easy to dissect. My favorite Minnesota pairing is Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns, but Rubio has struggled mightily against the Thunder this year and I won’t be targeting him on a full slate in this spot. Wiggins and Towns have had their share of success against OKC this year and pairing those two with either Durant or Westbrook gives you a lot of exposure to this contest. The spread on this game is 12.5 as of this writing and while that number is scary, this game has serious potential if the Wolves can keep it close. Zach LaVine is also a fine player to pair with KAT, but pairing him with Wiggins doesn’t make much sense since the two rely so heavily on scoring (72% of Wiggins FPs come via points with LaVine at 62%).

Top Stack: Karl-Anthony Towns with either Andrew Wiggins or Zach LaVine (and either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook)

Thunder

We don’t need to go into too much detail here – Durant and Westbrook account for a humongous amount of OKCs offensive production. It’s tough to pair them together since it accounts for such a huge chunk of your salary cap, but on a full slate featuring some solid value, it’s possible to roster Westbrook, Durant and Towns in the same lineup. If you are going to play Westbrook and Durant together, you’ll want some Timberwolves exposure as well since you’ll need this game to stay tight in order for the OKC stack to work out. Serge Ibaka is also in play here, and pairing him up with either of the Thunder’s stars is a viable GPP strategy. Durant actually assists Ibaka more frequently than Westbrook on both 2PT and 3PT FGs, so pairing those two seems to make a little more sense. All three players rebound well, so it’s not like Durant is sieving value from Ibaka in that sense. While I won’t personally be playing Westbrook and Durant together, I can’t argue with the ceiling that duo provides.

Game Stack: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook with either Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins or Zach LaVine

Contrarian Stack: Durant or Westbrook with Serge Ibaka

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies – 08:00 PM

Pelicans

Norris Cole is unlikely to play tonight, so that leaves us with three strong targets on the New Orleans side – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Toney Douglas. It appears that Douglas will start for Cole if he’s unable to go (Orlando Johnson started for Cole against Charlotte), but his playing time should remain high regardless judging by his 37 minutes off the bench Wednesday. The obvious stacking duo here is Davis and Holiday – they accounted for 69% of the Pelicans points on Wednesday without Cole and also racked up half of the team’s assists. Pairing Davis and Toney Douglas is also a strong way to expose yourself to the Pelicans at a cheaper asking price. While the Grizzlies are thought of as a tough defensive team, they’ve taken a huge step back with injuries to Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph.

Top Stack: Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday

Value Stack: Anthony Davis and Toney Douglas

Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are stackable due to the dearth of injuries they’ve suffered in recent weeks. With Mario Chalmers out, Lance Stephenson and Briante Weber figure to eat up most of the minutes at the 1, and Weber isn’t even available on DFS outlets at this point. JaMychal Green, Matt Barnes and Tony Allen are also very much in play tonight. Green’s price has taken off after a few consecutive monster performances, but the price may still be a tier too low given his increased role. Any combination of Stephenson, Green, Barnes and Allen is acceptable.

Top Stack: JaMychal Green and Lance Stephenson

Top Stack #2: Green, Stephenson and Matt Barnes

Top Stack #3: Green, Stephenson and Tony Allen

Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Magic

Elfrid Payton has been ruled out for tonight and C.J. Watson is likely to start at the PG spot, but there are a ton of different avenues you can take on the Orlando side with Nikola Vucevic also out. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Brandon Jennings are all fine targets (Jennings is a dart-throw GPP play only), with Oladipo, Gordon and Fournier playable in any format. With Oladipo, Fournier and Gordon on the floor and Vucevic/Payton off the court, Fournier actually has the highest usage rate among Orlando players at 24.4% (Oladipo is a hair behind at 23.4). Fournier is now a SF on FanDuel, so pairing him up with Oladipo is a little easier to do. Aaron Gordon should also feast on the Kings front-court that ranks near the bottom of the league against both PFs and Cs. Let’s hope his dud against the Lakers causes his ownership percentage to drop. You’ll want to have ample exposure to this contest tonight.

Top Stack: Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon (playing 2 of the 3 with Rudy Gay is the most likely route I’ll take)

Contrarian Stack: Brandon Jennings with either Fournier or Aaron Gordon

Kings

DeMarcus Cousins has been suspended one game by the Kings for conduct detrimental to the team, and he’ll serve that suspension tonight. While this is great news for Rudy Gay (27.7% USG without Cousins on the floor), it might actually hurt the upside of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assist to turnover ratio is much worse with Cousins off the floor – it sits at 3.44 with both he and Cousins on the floor, but drops to 2.2 with he and Gay on the floor together without Cousins. While Rondo may see a slight uptick in shot attempts, it may not be enough to outweigh Cousins’ absence. Rudy Gay is far and away the top target on the Sacramento side, with Willie Cauley-Stein squarely in play in Cousins’ place.

Top Stack: Rudy Gay and Willie Cauley-Stein (with 2-3 Orlando players)

Portland Trailblazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Portland

I won’t be stacking the Blazers tonight, but I do love the idea of pairing Damian Lillard up with Stephen Curry. These two have had some shootouts against each other this season, with Lillard averaging well over 60 FPs in two meetings with Golden State this year. Curry is averaging about 1.6 FPs per minute against the Blazers this season (he’s averaged just 27.5 MPG in those contests), so the upside with those two is evident. C.J. McCollum is also in play here and there are times when pairing him and Lillard can be very fruitful, but I’ll have far more exposure to Lillard.

Game Stack: Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry (potentially with Draymond Green)

Golden State

The Lillard/Curry pairing is my favorite combination in this game, but Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are also very nice targets. I prefer pairing Curry with Green since Klay and Steph are both very scoring dependent while Green is the prototypical all-around asset. It doesn’t hurt that Green is averaging nearly a triple-double against Portland this year (12.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 9.0 APG. The Blazers are also ranked just 20th against opposing PFs and 23rd against centers, so Green should be in a favorable spot regardless of whether or not the Warriors are playing small.

Top Stack: Stephen Curry and Draymond Green (with Damian Lillard)

Contrarian Stack: Curry with Klay Thompson (and Damian Lillard)

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Stephen Keech (SBK)