NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/7/22
Big 11 game slate today that should see the return of Chris Paul and possibly Mike Conley as well while we won’t see some big names in Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Bradley Beal, Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green. I’ll talk more about it later but the Warriors playing at 9PM could leave us without their starting lineup for an hour or longer after lock so leave yourself some swap scenarios if you’re looking to use other value starters outside of Poole and Klay. The Lakers and Pistons are the only teams on back-to-backs.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Tyrese Haliburton is questionable after missing the last two games and his status is crucial as this game with Minnesota should be one of the higher scoring and DFS friendliest games of the day. If Haliburton remains out then Andrew Nembhard will jump up the cash game priority rankings even at his increased salary while Buddy Hield will also be a top play who has been seeing huge minutes with no Haliburton. Myles Turner is also questionable after missing last game and if out then I’d consider Jalen Smith a top play of the slate while Oshae Brissett would be a more appealing value play coming off a 30+ FP game. TJ McConnell and James Johnson are also Q for Indy and if out it would just make all the guys mentioned even better plays. Jalen Smith was downgraded to Q at 12:30PM so Brissett and Jackson could be looking at solid minutes if Smith ends up out.
- Mike Conley is questionable to return from his long absence and we might not know if he’s in until way after lock. I’m hesitant to go heavy on any Jazz players because of this as Conley playing would really hurt the usage and ceiling of the other high-upside players on the Jazz. If Conley remains out then Sexton would remain a starter and guys like Clarkson and Markkanen would keep their higher ceilings.
- Alex Caruso is Q for the Bulls so Ayo Dosunmu would likely get his starting spot back if Caruso sits while Ziaire Williams, Devonte Graham, Edmond Sumner, and Terence Davis are other questionable players today.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both out tonight while Patrick Beverley is likely out so the Lakers are going to be a top team to target for value today. Thomas Bryant will almost certainly start at C while Austin Reaves and Troy Brown are likely options to start for Beverley and LeBron but they could go with Russell Westbrook instead of bringing him off the bench. Regardless we’re looking at great value plays in Dennis Schroder and Thomas Bryant while Walker, Reaves, and Westbrook are all in play depending on your positional needs.
- Bradley Beal will miss at least a week with a hamstring injury so look for Corey Kispert to start the next few games and he has shown decent upside when given good minutes putting him in play for value today. Rui Hachimura and Delon Wright remain out as well and with the players available for Washington today Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma lead the way with 30% usage rates while Daniel Gafford actually leads the team in FPPM at 1.49 in an 81 minute sample size. If you need another almost minimum price play on DK today then Gafford ($3,400) should definitely be in consideration coming off games of 33 and 40 FP over his last two.
- The Warriors will be without Curry, Wiggins, and Draymond so look for Jordan Poole to definitely start alongside Klay and Looney while the other two starters could be a few different guys. Jonathan Kuminga is the best bet to start for Draymond and he’ll be a very popular value play today while the last starting spot will likely be Lamb, DiVincenzo, or Moody. James Wiseman was recalled from the G-League yesterday and should be available tonight if you feel like taking a shot on him in GPPs at minimum price.
- Lauri Markkanen is out with an illness so all the Jazz starters become more appealing plays now.
- The Clippers will also be without three guys tonight as John Wall, Marcus Morris, and Luke Kennard are all out so look for Coffey, Mann, or Batum to join the starting lineup and all three should see solid minutes as LAC has only 10 available for now.
- Al Horford is now in health & safety protocols and out tonight so look for Blake Griffin to start at C for Boston with Luke Kornet helping there as well and all the other starters get slight usage bumps.
- Chris Paul is expected to return from his heel injury tonight so Payne will go back to the bench while, Booker, Ayton, and Bridges will take usage and ceiling hits. Torrey Craig will also return today and likely start at PF.
- Lu Dort is out with a knee contusion joining Kenrich Williams on the sidelines for OKC so either Pokusevski or Wiggins will likely start alongside Jalen Williams at the forward spots.
- Mo Bamba is on track to return after missing five games with back spasms and we’ll see if they start him right away or ease him back in off the bench and if it’s the latter then Moe Wagner should continue to start and be a high-upside value option. Carter, Harris, Okeke, and Suggs all remain out so Markelle Fultz remains a very strong play as he looks to be off a minutes restriction (32 minutes last game).
- Collins and Hunter remain out for ATL so look for AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson to continue to start; Ben Simmons remains out for BKN so Joe Harris should continue to start; Brandon Ingram is out and Herb Jones is likely still out so Murphy and Daniels should continue to start for the Pelicans.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Warriors top the p/$ projections with Jordan Poole ($5,900) leading the way at over 6.5x projected value and he’s the first guy I’m locking in to cash games. Klay Thompson ($6,200) is also at a great price for his increased role tonight and will likely be in my main build as well as Jonathan Kuminga ($4,000) assuming he draws the start for Draymond.
- Kawhi Leonard ($5,800) is also looking like a top play as this should be his lowest price of the season and he’s looking at an increased role today with Powell, Wall, and Kennard all out. Kawhi saw 27 minutes last game so expect at least that many tonight and for someone of his caliber he brings 40+ FP upside today and could smash his low salary.
- With LBJ and AD out I would use at least 2-3 Lakers in cash games as they have just 10 players available in Toronto and I’d prioritize Russell Westbrook ($6,900), Dennis Schroder ($4,800), and Thomas Bryant ($4,300) in that order.
- With Collins and Hunter out for ATL, Clint Capela ($6,200) is my favorite p/$ center today as he’s averaging 33+ FP over his last four games. With a game total of 233 and just a 1.5 point spread against the Knicks Capela has a good shot to see over 30 minutes and brings 40+ FP upside especially with his increased usage with Collins out. AJ Griffin ($4,600) and Jalen Johnson ($4,600) both remain decent value plays as well.
- At PG I’m really liking Markelle Fultz ($5,000) as his price only went up $200 after going for almost 32 FP last game in 32 minutes which is a great sign that he is off any minutes restriction. He’s averaged over 23 FPPG since making his season debut four games ago and at his current salary it’s hard to pass up a likely 5x value floor with 6-7x upside.
- Some more plays I like for the price today include Corey Kispert ($3,900), Deni Avdija ($4,800), Jordan Clarkson ($6,100), Jalen McDaniels ($5,000), PJ Washington ($5,900), Jalen Smith ($5,400), Moe Wagner ($4,800), Royce ONeale ($5,800), Trey Murphy ($5,700), and Franz Wagner ($5,900).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Jordan Poole ($6,500), Klay Thompson ($6,300), and Jonathan Kuminga ($3,400) remain my favorite cash game plays to start with while Kawhi Leonard ($7,200) is too expensive compared to his FD price and I won’t be on him on DK.
- Thomas Bryant ($3,100) is also a top cash game play now with AD and LBJ out especially coming off a 31.25 FP performance yesterday while Dennis Schroder ($4,100) will be busy at guard with Beverley likely out and is an excellent value play as well. Russell Westbrook ($6,500) is also a top target now as he leads the Lakers in usage with AD & LBJ off the floor and has huge upside at that price today.
- Jalen Johnson ($4,100) is my favorite p/$ play from ATL while Clint Capela ($6,700) is still at a solid price to consider for cash games.
- Markelle Fultz ($5,200) remains super cheap and a solid cash game play along with his teammate Moe Wagner ($5,300) coming off a 42+ FP game and could remain a starter even with Bamba on track to play.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,900) is still under $5k and comes at a nice discount to his FD price putting him in play for cash game consideration especially against ATL who he put up 33.5 FP on in just 18 minutes back in early November.
- Other DK plays I like today include Reggie Jackson ($5,100), Corey Kispert ($4,400), Deni Avdija ($4,800), Jalen McDaniels ($4,900), PJ Washington ($5,800), Joe Harris ($4,500), Royce ONeale ($5,600), AJ Griffin ($5,100), Jalen Williams ($4,400), Jalen Smith ($5,000), and Patrick Williams ($3,800).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn