NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/13/23
Hope everyone had a great Super Bowl Sunday and are ready to back on the NBA grind, as we’re starting the week with a big 11 game slate that already has over ten questionable players with impact ratings of nine or higher. The chaos of the trade deadline is starting to settle, and most of the traded players should be available for their new teams today, although Westbrook will remain out for Utah as he figures out what to do next.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Joel Embiid is questionable again with his foot soreness, and if out Harrell and Reed would get most of the center minutes, while James Harden would get a big usage bump and be a top play of the slate.
- LeBron James is questionable, and if out I’d expect Troy Brown to start for him again, while Anthony Davis would have a much higher ceiling, and guys like Schroder, Russell, and Hachimura would be more appealing plays. (Update: James is OUT)
- Tyrese Haliburton & Myles Turner are questionable for the Pacers, so either TJ McConnell or Chris Duarte would likely start if Haliburton sits, while Theis, Smith, or Jackson would likely start if Turner sits. If both end up out then I’d consider Buddy Hield a top play of the slate as their top offensive player.
- Jamal Murray & Aaron Gordon are questionable for Denver, so Bruce Brown would likely draw another start if Murray sits, while Vlatko Cancar would likely start for Gordon. If both end up out then Porter and Jokic would have to carry a lot more offense and both would have higher ceilings.
- CJ McCollum is questionable for New Orleans, and if out Jose Alvarado would likely start at PG and be a top value play, while Brandon Ingram would get a nice usage bump and have a higher ceiling.
- Rudy Gobert & Kyle Anderson are questionable for Minnesota, so Reid would likely start if either of them sat, while Prince and Rivers would also see more time if Anderson sits.
- Kyle Kuzma is questionable for Washington, so Deni Avdija would likely start if he remains out, while Beal and Porzingis would have higher ceilings. (Update: Kuzma is OUT)
- John Collins & Bogdan Bogdanovic are questionable for Atlanta, so Saddiq Bey could be pressed in to immediate minutes if both are out. Hunter, Griffin, and Johnson would all help cover Collin’s time as well, while the available guards and wings would get bumps if Bogdanovic is out.
- Jerami Grant is questionable for Portland, so Little, Thybulle, or Watford would likely start if he’s out, while Lillard and Simons would get usage bumps and have to carry even more offense. (Update: Grant is OUT)
- Tim Hardaway is questionable for Dallas, so Bullock could see a start if he’s out, while Josh Green would be a more appealing play as he’s already seeing huge minutes and is still very cheap.
- Doug McDermott and Charles Bassey are questionable for the Spurs, and if either sit we’d see more minutes for Collins, Bates-Diop, Roby, and Dieng.
- Alex Caruso is questionable for Chicago, and if out Dosunmu, White, and Dragic would all absorb his minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Spurs will be without Tre Jones and Romeo Langford, so Devonte Graham, Malaki Branham, and Blake Wesley will continue to get most of the backcourt minutes and we could see Graham start over Wesley today.
- With Porter still out and Gordon traded away, JaeSean Tate could draw another start for Houston, while Nix and Washington will continue to see significant guard minutes as well.
- Gabe Vincent should continue to start for Lowry who remains out, and with Oladipo also still out he should push for around 40 minutes again. Max Strus will likely start with Herro out, and is another top value play of the slate.
- We’ll see if the Knicks stick with bringing Josh Hart off the bench or start him over Grimes, while the Nets will likely go with the same lineup as last game with Bridges and Johnson at SG/SF.
- OKC recalled Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and sent Tre Mann to the G-League, so we could see JRE start at center right away, or they could go with newly acquired Dario Saric or stick with Jaylin Williams.
- Cam Reddish should see another start at SF for Portland, while Matisse Thybulle will be available to make his POR debut along with Knox.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Lauri Markkanen ($7,600) remains at one of his cheapest salaries of the season, and at a $1,500 discount to DK he is one of my top p/$ plays today in a projected high scoring, close game with Indiana. Collin Sexton ($5,500) is still reasonable priced and has some upside for the 30+ minutes he’ll get, while Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,300) has seen 24-27 minutes over his last three games and is averaging around 33 FPPG in that stretch, putting him squarely in play for cash game value today. Check out our No House Advantage promo offer for new signups, where I like betting the over 26.5 points line for Markkanen there.
- For the Pacers I’m really liking Bennedict Mathurin ($4,400), as he too is at one of his lowest salaries of the season, and coming off b2b games over 27 FP in 30+ minutes, with the chance that Haliburton is out or not at 100%, he should easily see 27+ minutes and is just way too cheap given the matchup and upside at that price.
- Jalen Brunson ($7,900) is under $8k for the fifth straight game, which doesn’t make sense as he’s averaging over 45 FPPG in his last eight games, and has a 50+ FP ceiling again today in a projected close matchup with Brooklyn. Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,800) is also looking like a strong value option coming off b2b games over 22 FP in 24 minutes.
- Gabe Vincent ($5,000) is the same price as last game in which he saw 41 minutes, and the Heat remain extremely thin at guard with Lowry and Oladipo out, and now Herro is out too. It’s hard to find anyone at that price with a chance at 40+ minutes so he has to be considered a top value play, while Max Strus ($4,200) should also be in cash game consideration with Herro out.
- Cameron Johnson ($5,100) is one of my favorite p/$ forwards today, as his price didn’t change after his Nets debut last game in which he went for around 34 FP in 28 minutes. Assuming he sees around 30 minutes again today, that 6-7x value upside is just too great to fade in what should be a very close game with the Knicks.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Mark Williams ($4,000) remains way too cheap, and at a $1,200 discount to FD he is my favorite p/$ center on DK today. PJ Washington ($6,100) and Gordon Hayward ($4,900) are also a bit underpriced and are fine cash game targets.
- Zach Collins ($4,500) draws a tough matchup with CLE, but he’s $1,900 cheaper than FD and should see 25+ minutes, so if you need another cheap center I would definitely still consider him regardless of the matchup. Malaki Branham ($4,800) and Devonte Graham ($3,500) would be my next top p/$ targets from the Spurs.
- Walker Kessler ($5,600) remains at a great discount to FD, and if you have the extra salary and prefer a better matchup I don’t mind using Kessler over Collins today. Collin Sexton ($5,200) and Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,900) remain solid targets from Utah as well, along with Bennedict Mathurin ($4,600) from Indy.
- Gabe Vincent ($4,500) & Max Strus ($3,800) remain my top value plays from Miami, and some other value plays I like on DK today include JaeSean Tate ($3,500), DeAnthony Melton ($4,200), Cameron Johnson ($4,900), Jalen Williams ($5,400), Josh Green ($4,900), and Drew Eubanks ($4,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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