NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/23/22
With no games scheduled tomorrow for Thanksgiving we have a huge 12 game slate today with big names already ruled out and plenty of later news that will affect the slate. The 76ers, Nets, Kings, Nuggets, and Pistons are on a back-to-back so we’ll get their injury reports later. In the spirit of Thanksgiving I just wanted to say thank you to anyone that reads this and hopefully this article helps you with your daily DFS NBA process even in the smallest way. Today’s slate is going to be crazy so hopefully you get to enjoy it during all the busyness likely going on around you for the holidays and then tomorrow clear your mind from NBA and enjoy all the food, family, and football!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jayson Tatum is questionable with an ankle sprain and if out I would consider Jaylen Brown a top play of the slate as he’s been putting up great numbers with Tatum out there and would have to really pick up a lot more offense with no Tatum. Grant Williams would also be a much more appealing value play and we’d likely see either Derrick White or Sam Hauser start for Tatum.
- Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, and Monte Morris are all questionable for Washington and while Hachimura’s status isn’t super important for the overall slate if Beal and Morris both end up out then Corey Kispert would be one of the top value plays of the entire slate as he’s already been seeing 30+ minutes in three of this last four games and would be looking at a ton of minutes with both out today. Deni Avdija would also be a solid play while Kuzma and Porzingis would have elite ceilings.
- Scottie Barnes is questionable with a knee sprain and if out we’d likely see Juancho Hernangomez draw the start and be a decent value play while VanVleet and Anunoby would get nice usage bumps and have to carry more offense along with Trent and Young. Dalano Banton is also questionable and if out FVV, Trent, and Flynn would absorb his minutes. Update: Barnes, VanVleet, and Banton are all OUT
- Jakob Poeltl is questionable for the Spurs with knee soreness and if out we would see either Dieng or Bassey start at C and Jeremy Sochan would be a more appealing value option. Jones, Vassell, and Johnson would all get usage bumps as well.
- Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable with shoulder soreness and his absence would give either Tim Hardaway or Josh Green the start. It would also give Luka Doncic an even higher ceiling as he’d have to create even more offense in what should be a competitive game with the Celtics.
- The Heat have four questionable players in Tyler Herro, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Dewayne Dedmon. If all four end up out they would have just seven available and all the starters would be excellent plays looking at huge minutes. Dedmon’s status is the least important with Bam Adebayo back in the mix but if one or two of the three Q guards are out then the remaining starting guards could be looking at 40+ minutes in a nice matchup with Washington.
- Bones Hyland left yesterday’s game with an illness so consider him questionable for now while we could see some other Denver guys get a rest day on the b2b. Update: around 1:30PM we learned that Hyland is OUT, Jokic is Q, Murray is Q, Porter is Q, and Smith is Q. Aaron Gordon and KCP are the only starters without an injury designation and could be looking at big roles tonight along with Bruce Brown.
- Aleksej Pokusevski was upgraded to Q and if active it would limit the ceilings of some OKC guys but if out then JRE would likely start again.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The 76ers remain without Embiid, Harden, and Maxey so we should see a similar starting lineup as yesterday with Milton and Melton at the guard spots, Harris and Tucker at the forward spots, and Harrell at center. Paul Reed did see twice as many minutes as Harrell yesterday and went off for over 40 FP so there’s a good chance he starts at center today and if so he’d be an excellent play in one of the best matchups for centers against Charlotte.
- The Nets went with both Ben Simmons and Nic Claxton in the starting lineup yesterday with Joe Harris moving to the bench so they could go with that again.
- Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Luke Kennard are all out for the Clippers so there is plenty of minutes and usage available for the guards tonight. Terance Mann will almost certainly start while Norman Powell or Nicolas Batum will likely start for Kawhi with Powell being the preferred play regardless.
- Jimmy Butler and Duncan Robinson remain out for the Heat so Lowry, Adebayo, and potentially Herro will have to carry most of the offense with not much bench depth especially if any of the Q guys end up out.
- The Spurs will be without Josh Richardson and Zach Collins but will get back Romeo Langford.
- Denver got back Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic yesterday and there is a chance one or both get today off on the b2b so keep an eye out for their official injury report later. Update: Hyland, Murray, Porter and Green are OUT, Jokic is IN
- Saddiq Bey remains out for DET so Isaiah Livers should start again while Mike Conley remains out for Utah so Collin Sexton will likely start for him again.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Terance Mann ($3,700) and Norman Powell ($5,100) are two of my favorite plays of the slate as both are looking at 30+ minutes with George and Leonard out and are just too cheap given their roles today. Reggie Jackson ($5,500), Marcus Morris ($4,900) and Ivica Zubac ($5,800) are all strong plays at great prices as well so we’ll likely see 2-4 Clippers in most single entry and cash game lineups today.
- With Conley out for Utah Jordan Clarkson ($6,300) saw 39 minutes last game putting up over 40 FP and his price only went up $300 so he is definitely a top play of the slate against Detroit. Sexton, Beasley, and Horton-Tucker all saw usage bumps as well with THT ($4,200) being my favorite of that group for the price.
- Shake Milton ($6,000) is still at a nice price to consider him a top target today in a great matchup with Charlotte while Paul Reed ($5,400) is in play after going for over 40 FP last game especially if he draws the start for Embiid instead of Harrell.
- Josh Giddey ($6,800) is still somehow under $7k with back-to-back games over 39 FP so take advantage of that price while you can.
- I mentioned him earlier but keep Corey Kispert ($3,700) on your radar as he would jump to a must play if Beal and Morris both end up out and would still be a top play if just Beal sits. Grant Williams ($4,400) will also be a top value option if Tatum sits.
- If Jokic, Murray, and/or Porter end up out I’d consider Bruce Brown ($6,100) a top play of the slate with Hyland already out.
- More guys I like for the price include Jusuf Nurkic ($6,100), Kevin Huerter ($5,800), Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,900), Deni Avdija ($4,400), Caleb Martin ($5,400), Patrick Williams ($4,300), Jeremy Sochan ($4,400), and Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,800).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Ben Simmons ($6,100) has been on fire over his last three games going for 39+ FP in each and his price actually went down $200 from last game. He is now a regular starter and will be over $7k sooner than later so take advantage of his current price while you can.
- Terance Mann ($3,400) and Norman Powell ($5,300) remain way too cheap with George, Leonard, and Kennard out while Jordan Clarkson ($6,900) is still in play at that price although I don’t mind going with Malik Beasley ($4,800) or Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,300) for cheaper Utah exposure.
- Shake Milton ($5,500) is still a great play and Paul Reed ($3,700) is $1,700 cheaper than FD so I have to consider him a top value play regardless if he starts or not as his range of outcomes includes what he did yesterday going for over 40 FP in 31 minutes with Embiid out.
- Josh Giddey ($7,000) remains at a great price in what is projected to be one of the higher scoring games of the slate and Corey Kispert ($4,300) is still one of my favorite plays if Beal sits today.
- * If Jokic, Murray, and/or Porter end up out I’d consider Bruce Brown ($6,300) a top play of the slate with Hyland already out.
- Other plays to consider at nice prices are DAngelo Russell ($6,000), Harrison Barnes ($5,300), Patrick Williams ($4,000), Jeremy Sochan ($4,400), Killian Hayes ($5,300), and Kelly Olynyk ($5,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!
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