NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 4th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 22 | 25 | 11 | 3 | DvP | 29 | 29 | 18 | 28 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 28 | 30 | 27 | 7 | |
Orlando Magic
Happy Monday, I hope everyone had a terrific weekend.
We kick the week off with an 11-game slate. The Magic are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, although they did play early on Sunday, so they technically had a day and a half to rest and get ready for tonight’s contest. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Hornets, who continue to play well at home and continue to struggle on the road. Orlando comes into the game as 7.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 105.8 points.
Elfrid Payton has played well over his last four games and more importantly, his minutes are trending upward. Whether this tightened rotation of Frank Vogel’s is here to stay or not is still up for debate, but I’m encouraged by the fact that Payton is averaging 30.3 minutes in his last four outings. Kemba Walker is not a great defender and this game has one of the highest totals on the board. Payton is firmly on my radar tonight on DraftKings ($6,000), but the play isn’t for the risk-averse crowd. Evan Fournier is a streaky player that has scored 33 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Hornets have good wing defenders, but Fournier is still underpriced on DraftKings ($5,500).
With Terrence Ross out the last two games, Jonathon Simmons has played 38 and 37 minutes. Sure, a matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is less than desirable, but the minute bump alone makes Simmons a viable option in both cash games and tournaments. Surprisingly, I have very little interest in Orlando’s frontcourt. Aaron Gordon is priced at a premium thanks to his great stretch of play recently and Nikola Vucevic draws a difficult matchup against Dwight Howard. The Hornets are ranked 14th in efficiency and third in DvP against centers this season.
Notable Injuries
Terrence Ross (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Doubtful)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 108.0 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (16 of 22)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,400 | $6,000 | $13,400 | 29.2 | 6.8 | 27.0 | 3.3 | 1.08 | 20.8% | 54.3% | 13 | 18 | 20 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,300 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 28.8 | -1.1 | 32.3 | 2.7 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 59.4% | 22 | 22 | 12 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 21.3 | 1.2 | 26.6 | 9.5 | 0.80 | 20.5% | 57.0% | 16 | 25 | 6 |
| Aaron Gordon | $8,400 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 36.1 | 11.4 | 33.3 | 6.2 | 1.08 | 19.0% | 62.5% | 20 | 11 | 10 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,600 | $7,100 | $13,400 | 35.2 | 2.6 | 29.8 | 2.3 | 1.18 | 21.9% | 56.3% | 14 | 3 | 9 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK), Evan Fournier (DK), Jonathon Simmons
Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (DK), Nikola Vucevic
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have some of the biggest home/road splits in the entire league. Splits in general tend to get overplayed when predicting fantasy production, but when it comes to the Hornets, I am a firm believer. They are 7-3 at home and 1-10 on the road. Their offensive and defensive numbers take a bit hit away from Charlotte. They have the perfect storm tonight, as they are hosting a Magic team that is ranked sixth in pace of play and 28th in rebounding differential. We can give the Hornets a sizable boost as a whole, as their implied total is nearly eight points above their season average.
Kemba Walker will return from his two-game absence and is not expected to be on a minute restriction. The fact that he is coming back from injury will lower his ownership and as long as he has a little “Q” next to his name on the sites, that ownership is going to keep dropping. On paper, this is a tremendous spot for Walker. Elfrid Payton is not a good individual defender and the Magic as a whole are ranked 26th in efficiency and 29th in DvP against point guards. I’m going to buy low on Walker in tournaments and potentially even look his way in cash games.
Common sense would lead us to believe that Nicolas Batum would take on a larger role without Walker in the lineup, but that hasn’t been the case. He actually averages six more fantasy points per game playing next to Walker. Batum is an intriguing bounce-back candidate against a Magic team that struggles to defend wings. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a decent value on DraftKings ($4,000), but not a player that I usually try to force into my lineups. The same goes for Marvin Williams, who is also cheap on DraftKings ($3,700). We often get too wrapped up in looking at a player’s performance against a specific team, but there are certain situations that justify the splits. Dwight Howard has always played well against his former team, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in each of his last seven games against the Magic. Don’t be afraid to load up on the Hornets tonight — they have one of the best matchups on the schedule.
Notable Injuries
Kemba Walker (Probable)
Frank Kaminsky (Probable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 7.8 (2 of 22)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.3 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,800 | $7,500 | $15,500 | 36.7 | -4.5 | 35.2 | -0.9 | 1.04 | 26.2% | 57.9% | 26 | 29 | 22 |
| Nicolas Batum | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 22.0 | -4.5 | 27.4 | 2.6 | 0.80 | 20.0% | 47.5% | 29 | 29 | 28 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,300 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.8 | 1.2 | 25.9 | 4.3 | 0.72 | 14.1% | 51.5% | 23 | 18 | 30 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,700 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.7 | 2.3 | 25.7 | -1.1 | 0.73 | 12.5% | 62.1% | 18 | 28 | 27 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,400 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 33.1 | -2.7 | 29.1 | -4.2 | 1.14 | 19.6% | 57.0% | 26 | 21 | 7 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 29.5 | 0.8 | 28.7 | -0.2 | 1.03 | 22.2% | 56.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.4 | -3.7 | 24.2 | -2.8 | 0.76 | 18.7% | 52.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP), Nicolas Batum (FD), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Marvin Williams (DK)
Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 228.5 |  | Vegas Total | 228.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 119.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 27 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 20 | 30 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 28 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 8 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns only have eight wins on the season, but four of them came on the road. They actually have a slightly higher winning percentage on the road than they do at home. Tonight they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in what should be one of the fastest-paced games of the night. Both teams are ranked in the top four in pace of play and in the bottom ten in points allowed per game. As long as this one stays relatively close, it should provide a lot of fantasy goodness. The Suns have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is two points above their season average.
Tyler Ulis and Mike James continue to split minutes at point guard. James has been the more productive (1.00 FP/min) of the two, but he typically sees fewer minutes than Ulis. While the matchup is decent, they are deep tournament plays at best in an 11-game slate. Devin Booker will likely draw the defense of Robert Covington, who has the highest DRPM of any small forward in this slate. While that’s not ideal, Booker should play 35+ minutes in an uptempo game with a high total. At $7,000 on FanDuel, he deserves consideration in all formats.
If Booker is locked up by Covington, that should bode well for T.J. Warren, who is averaging 34 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s an intriguing pivot off of Booker in tournaments, although he’s far from a core play tonight. The Suns’ frontcourt hinges on the availability of Alex Len (questionable). If he is unable to suit up, Tyson Chandler and Greg Monroe would both become intriguing tournament plays. If Len is active, I will be avoiding the situation altogether.
Notable Injuries
Alex Len (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (6 of 22)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.3 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,000 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 17.2 | 0.9 | 22.7 | 2.1 | 0.76 | 18.6% | 45.7% | 9 | 15 | 1 |
| Devin Booker | $7,000 | $7,800 | $15,900 | 34.8 | 5.8 | 33.6 | -0.4 | 1.03 | 26.7% | 57.2% | 19 | 21 | 26 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,300 | $6,700 | $14,300 | 31.0 | -2.3 | 31.1 | 3.0 | 1.00 | 22.4% | 53.2% | 13 | 23 | 1 |
| Marquese Chriss | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.5 | -1.4 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 13.3% | 49.2% | 9 | 17 | 28 |
| Tyson Chandler | $5,000 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 22.0 | 2.4 | 25.3 | -1.4 | 0.87 | 9.8% | 66.9% | 22 | 27 | 2 |
| Greg Monroe | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 19.7 | 3.0 | 19.2 | 1.3 | 1.02 | 17.9% | 57.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike James | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 22.6 | 3.2 | 22.7 | -1.1 | 1.00 | 24.3% | 46.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Devin Booker (FD)
Secondary Plays – Devin Booker (DK), T.J. Warren (GPP), Tyson Chandler (DK)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games and look like a team that is heading for the playoffs. After many straight years of heading to the lottery, this has to be a nice change of pace for Philadelphia fans. They draw the best possible matchup tonight, as they take on a Suns’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in defensive efficiency. You can’t ask for a better combination when looking for fantasy production. The Sixers have an implied total of 119.3 points, which is the highest on the board and 11 points above their season average.
Ben Simmons was quiet the other night against the Pistons, but that was a pace-down game against a good defense. Tonight he gets to face an uptempo Suns’ team that doesn’t defend any position well. Simmons should bounce back in a big way and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see him post another triple-double. J.J. Redick feels overpriced, but he is averaging 33 minutes and 26 fantasy points per game. Against a team that doesn’t defend the three-point line well, I don’t see a reason to fade Redick. If T.J. McConnell (questionable) is unable to suit up again, Jerryd Bayless would play 26-30 minutes off the bench and offer great value in all formats.
Robert Covington is a streaky shooter that provides plenty of upside. His price has come up a bit on FanDuel, but he’s still affordable on DraftKings ($6,200). This is the perfect type of game where he should get open looks from three and plenty of opportunities for blocks and steals. Dario Saric has been in excellent form recently, but is priced up across the industry. While I still think he’s viable, he’s my least favorite target of the five starters. Tyson Chandler is still a good defender at this stage of his career, but he can’t single-handedly make up for a bad defense. As a whole, the Suns are ranked 20th in efficiency and 18th in DvP against centers, so I have no issue playing Joel Embiid in all formats.
Notable Injuries
T.J. McConnell (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.3 (1 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 10.8 (1 of 22)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.8 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.3 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $10,500 | $9,800 | $19,800 | 45.1 | -3.4 | 35.8 | 2.9 | 1.26 | 24.2% | 52.2% | 30 | 30 | 29 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 25.9 | -0.6 | 33.3 | 0.6 | 0.78 | 18.2% | 56.1% | 18 | 28 | 29 |
| Robert Covington | $7,000 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 30.2 | -3.2 | 31.7 | 1.2 | 0.95 | 16.4% | 60.5% | 23 | 20 | 29 |
| Dario Saric | $6,400 | $5,600 | $13,400 | 23.1 | 7.3 | 28.3 | 3.7 | 0.82 | 16.7% | 52.3% | 30 | 30 | 15 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,400 | $9,800 | $19,900 | 44.3 | 1.1 | 29.7 | 2.6 | 1.49 | 28.5% | 56.7% | 20 | 18 | 8 |
| Jerryd Bayless | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.5 | -2.5 | 27.9 | -1.8 | 0.59 | 13.4% | 57.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Robert Covington (DK), Joel Embiid (DK)
Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (FD), Joel Embiid (FD), J.J. Redick, Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Damyean Dotson | Courtney Lee | Michael Beasley | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 30 | DvP | 25 | 14 | 16 | 3 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 14 | |
New York Knicks
Playing back-to-back games is generally a tall task, not to mention when you are doing it without your two best players. The Knicks are in a tough spot tonight, although their matchup against the Pacers is a favorable one. On the season, Indiana is ranked ninth in pace of play and 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Knicks’ implied total of 99.8 points doesn’t seem like much, but keep in mind that they are missing two starters that are averaging 43.6 points combined per game.
If we run the CourtIQ tool with Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway off the floor, we can see that basically everyone gets a usage and FP/min boost. It’s not surprising given how much of the offensive production has come from those two. Jarrett Jack offers decent value at point guard on DraftKings ($3,900), but there are at least three Knicks’ players that I would target before him tonight. Courtney Lee has scored at least 26 fantasy points in six of his last seven games and should be a focal point of the offense tonight. He’ll likely draw the defense of Victor Oladipo, but Lee’s increased role puts him on my radar in all formats.
Michael Beasley could end up being 80% owned tonight on DraftKings ($3,500). He will draw the start at power forward and he’s coming off of a 24-fantasy point outing against the Magic. If you aren’t a Beasley fan, it’s easier to stomach the fade on FanDuel ($5,000). He’s basically a lock and load play on DraftKings. Enes Kanter has a 26% usage rate and is averaging 43 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Porzingis and Hardaway off the floor. Kanter also draws an elite matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked 29th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against centers this season. Kyle O’Quinn and Doug McDermott are intriguing tournament plays off the bench and make nice pivots off of the popular plays in Beasley and Kanter.
Notable Injuries
Kristaps Porzingis (Out)
Tim Hardaway (Out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.9 | 1.2 | 26.4 | -0.2 | 0.71 | 16.0% | 45.8% | 18 | 20 | 7 |
| Damyean Dotson | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 4.2 | -1.6 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.54 | 14.3% | 52.3% | 15 | 20 | 1 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,500 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 25.7 | 3.8 | 32.8 | 0.4 | 0.78 | 15.4% | 60.8% | 4 | 2 | 28 |
| Michael Beasley | $5,000 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 0.86 | 21.7% | 53.0% | 26 | 20 | 7 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,600 | $6,200 | $13,900 | 31.0 | 10.2 | 26.3 | 1.7 | 1.18 | 17.8% | 67.8% | 29 | 30 | 9 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 20.2 | 8.4 | 16.8 | 3.7 | 1.20 | 15.3% | 59.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Doug McDermott | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 13.5 | -2.2 | 23.2 | 0.2 | 0.58 | 13.3% | 56.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Courtney Lee, Enes Kanter, Michael Beasley
Secondary Plays – Jarrett Jack (DK), Kyle O’Quinn (GPP), Doug McDermott (GPP)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and if the season ended today, they would just squeeze into the playoffs as the eighth seed. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 18th in pace of play, 12th in points allowed per game, and 16th in defensive efficiency. This game has sneaky shootout potential, but is also has blowout potential as well. The spread is set at ten points and there’s a decent chance that the Pacers run away with this one. While that’s a small concern, the Pacers’ implied total of 109.8 points is enticing.
Darren Collison has been more inconsistent than I ever could have imagined heading into the season. Throughout his career, we’ve known him as a high-floor, low-ceiling option in DFS. It’s been the opposite of that this season, although it’s worth noting that he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in nine straight games. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Knicks and is priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Victor Oladipo is the only player on the Pacers with a true usage above 20%. He is averaging 57 fantasy points in his last four games, but is priced up enough that I don’t consider him a core play in a potential blowout.
Bojan Bogdanovic isn’t a flashy value play, but he has gotten the job done this season. He should play around 30 minutes tonight against a defense that is mediocre against small forwards. There are better value plays available, but I wouldn’t hate the idea of landing on Bogdanovic as the last player in my lineup. Thaddeus Young has a tough matchup on paper, but he won’t have to deal with Kristaps Porzingis. His chances of reaching value skyrocket in a matchup against Michael Beasley. Myles Turner minutes are trending in the right direction, but we need the production to come up before targeting him in DFS.
Notable Injuries
None
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (8 of 22)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,900 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 31.9 | -0.7 | 0.89 | 18.3% | 56.9% | 24 | 25 | 9 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,200 | $8,700 | $15,800 | 41.2 | 15.7 | 33.3 | 2.1 | 1.24 | 27.0% | 58.6% | 7 | 14 | 8 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 21.1 | -4.0 | 31.1 | 2.8 | 0.68 | 16.2% | 62.8% | 20 | 16 | 19 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,700 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 28.3 | -1.8 | 33.2 | -1.3 | 0.85 | 16.2% | 53.1% | 1 | 3 | 23 |
| Myles Turner | $7,100 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 31.8 | -2.4 | 29.2 | 2.4 | 1.09 | 18.1% | 56.4% | 4 | 11 | 14 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 18.8 | 7.7 | 21.3 | 4.6 | 0.88 | 17.8% | 50.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 26.0 | -2.4 | 25.2 | -0.8 | 1.03 | 18.3% | 60.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Thaddeus Young (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (DK), Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic (FD), Thaddeus Young (GPP)
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 16 | DvP | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 24 | 25 | 12 | 7 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are a fun team to watch, but are the only team with a negative point differential in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. That’s not always the most predictive stat, but it’s at least somewhat alarming if you are a Bucks’ fan. They draw one of the worst possible matchups tonight, as they square off against a Celtics’ defense that is ranked second in points allowed per game, first in defensive efficiency, and ninth in rebounding differential. The Bucks’ implied total is the third lowest on the board and four points below their season average.
If you look at the right side of the table below, you will see a lot of yellow and red boxes. From a matchup standpoint, we want them to be blue and green. The Celtics have been tough on every single position this season, which doesn’t bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo and company. In an 11-game slate, I want to feel confident with my entire lineup, from my superstar targets to my value plays. Targeting players against the Celtics is not something that I have confidence in. With that said, Antetokounmpo ($10,600) and Khris Middleton ($6,300) are both intriguing plays in large field tournaments on DraftKings thanks to their discounted price points.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Doubtful)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (18 of 22)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 32.4 | 5.1 | 29.8 | -0.9 | 1.09 | 25.5% | 53.3% | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 16.6 | -1.5 | 31.9 | -0.3 | 0.52 | 9.2% | 67.8% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,000 | $6,300 | $12,900 | 33.7 | -5.7 | 36.6 | -4.7 | 0.92 | 22.7% | 55.6% | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,400 | $10,600 | $19,900 | 56.5 | 1.5 | 37.1 | -3.2 | 1.52 | 29.8% | 61.0% | 10 | 1 | 2 |
| John Henson | $5,700 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 22.5 | 3.0 | 23.4 | 3.8 | 0.96 | 12.2% | 58.5% | 9 | 16 | 2 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 23.9 | -0.7 | 30.0 | -6.5 | 0.80 | 18.7% | 57.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK), Khris Middleton (DK)
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
The Celtics are 20-4 on the season and they continue to get no love from the oddsmakers. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I’m sure they have covered the spread in most of their games this season. I really don’t understand how a team playing such dominant basketball continues to be undervalued by sportsbooks. This is one of many times where they have barely been favored in a home game against a mediocre opponent. This isn’t so much of a rant as it is confusion on my end. Anyway, Boston comes into tonight’s game against the Bucks as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 104 points.
The Celtics are always a difficult team to trust in daily fantasy for three reasons — they have a great defense, which leads to a lot of blowouts, they play at a slow pace, and they have a very deep rotation. This combination makes it tough to rely on players on a nightly basis outside of Kyrie Irving and maybe Al Horford. I don’t have much interest in the Celtics tonight. It’s not that they are bad plays against a middle-of-the-pack Bucks’ defense, I just prefer other players at each position. The most appealing play for me here is Horford, as the Bucks are ranked 28th in efficiency against centers and currently have the fourth worst rebounding differential in basketball.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (12 of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,500 | $8,500 | $15,300 | 37.9 | -2.2 | 31.6 | 1.8 | 1.20 | 29.1% | 59.2% | 5 | 7 | 15 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,800 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 26.8 | -9.1 | 31.8 | -3.0 | 0.84 | 18.4% | 55.6% | 16 | 7 | 24 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,100 | $6,000 | $11,700 | 26.7 | -2.4 | 30.3 | 1.4 | 0.88 | 15.6% | 63.6% | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| Al Horford | $7,500 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 33.7 | 5.2 | 32.5 | 0.4 | 1.04 | 17.1% | 64.3% | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.5 | -2.2 | 18.0 | -1.0 | 0.86 | 14.1% | 51.4% | 28 | 20 | 7 |
| Marcus Smart | $6,000 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 25.8 | 2.8 | 30.7 | 1.1 | 0.84 | 18.7% | 44.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Morris | $5,000 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 23.7 | 1.9 | 24.1 | 1.8 | 0.98 | 21.9% | 54.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Al Horford
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.8 | Implied Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 19 | DvP | 26 | 18 | 30 | 26 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 8 | 27 | 20 | |
Brooklyn Nets
This is one of the more intriguing games on the slate. We have one team (Nets) that loves to push the pace and both teams are ranked in the bottom eight in defensive efficiency. If the pace of the game picks up (which is what I expect), there will be a ton of fantasy points to go around. Both of these teams are below the league average in offensive efficiency, yet the total is set at 219 points. This should make your eyes light up with wonder. The Nets’ implied total is slightly below their season average, but that’s not a concern since it’s still set at 108.8 points.
Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 32 minutes and 33 fantasy points over his last four games. He leads the team in true usage and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. Dennis Schroder is basically a turnstile on defense and the Hawks as a whole are ranked 29th in efficiency against point guards. This is a true blowup spot for Dinwiddie and I expect his ownership to come in at around 10% given the fact that he’s priced at or above $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, and Joe Harris are all splitting shooting guard minutes at the moment. They are secondary options at best in a slate this size.
DeMarre Carroll feels overpriced, which should keep his ownership low. Even if you ignore the revenge narrative (28, 34, and 39 fantasy points in his last three games against his former team), he stands out as an excellent tournament play. Over his last four games, he is averaging 33 minutes and 32 fantasy points. The Hawks might be the worst team in basketball at defending small forwards, ranking 30th in efficiency and 28th in DvP. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will slide back into the starting lineup tonight, but his price is outlandish on FanDuel ($7,300). I want to see him play a full complement of minutes before targeting RHJ in any format.
Notable Injuries
None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 109.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (14 of 22)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 27.9 | 4.9 | 26.1 | 5.6 | 1.07 | 22.8% | 53.8% | 29 | 17 | 29 |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,600 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 20.9 | -3.3 | 27.2 | -1.9 | 0.77 | 16.9% | 56.8% | 4 | 25 | 3 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,100 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 28.4 | 4.1 | 29.7 | 3.5 | 0.95 | 17.6% | 56.6% | 30 | 28 | 22 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,300 | $5,700 | $11,900 | 26.6 | -14.7 | 26.8 | -11.4 | 0.99 | 19.2% | 57.5% | 17 | 25 | 9 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 16.3 | 1.6 | 18.4 | 2.2 | 0.88 | 14.5% | 63.7% | 19 | 19 | 10 |
| Trevor Booker | $4,400 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 21.6 | 1.4 | 22.1 | 1.7 | 0.98 | 18.2% | 53.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Caris LeVert | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 22.6 | 2.4 | 25.8 | 2.0 | 0.87 | 18.9% | 47.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie, DeMarre Carroll (GPP)
Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll (Cash), Caris LeVert
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are still looking for their first winning streak of the season. They have three wins under their belt, but don’t have two in a row at any point. This might be their best chance in a while, as they are listed as 1.5-point favorites against the Nets. From a matchup standpoint, only the Suns allow more points per game. Brooklyn is ranked third in pace of play and in the bottom ten in points allowed, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hawks have an implied total of 110.3 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and seven points above their season average.
One of my favorite tournament strategies is to pair the two starting point guards in uptempo games. Spencer Dinwiddie and Dennis Schroder are both in excellent matchups and they will both fly under the radar thanks to their slightly inflated price points. I plan to have shares of both and I plan to use them in the same lineup. Schroder has one of the highest true usage rates (29%) of any point guard in the slate and the Nets are ranked in the bottom five in efficiency and DvP against the position. I believe I have played Kent Bazemore one time this season and it didn’t turn out too well. While I don’t love the fact that he averages less than 30 minutes per game, this is a perfect matchup for him to breakout of his recent slump.
Taurean Prince seems to get benched for odd reasons more than any starter in basketball. While that’s always a concern, I like the matchup and think he should play over 30 minutes with how many injuries the Hawks have in their frontcourt. I also like Marco Belinelli off the bench, who is averaging 24 fantasy points over his last four games. Belinelli should get plenty of open looks against this Nets’ defense. As for the frontcourt, I don’t have a ton of interest in Ersan Ilyasova, Miles Plumlee, or Luke Babbitt. I expect both teams to play small, which will limit the number of minutes available for the players in the frontcourt.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
Dewayne Dedmon (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 7.0 (3 of 22)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.3 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.9 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $8,400 | $8,000 | $14,900 | 34.3 | -0.6 | 32.1 | -0.8 | 1.07 | 29.2% | 53.3% | 26 | 26 | 10 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,600 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 27.5 | -4.6 | 28.6 | -0.3 | 0.96 | 19.6% | 51.5% | 24 | 18 | 26 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 25.0 | -4.0 | 30.7 | -3.2 | 0.81 | 17.4% | 51.8% | 12 | 30 | 8 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,600 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 17.3 | 6.6 | 20.8 | 4.4 | 0.83 | 15.2% | 44.0% | 28 | 26 | 27 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 0.75 | 6.2% | 100.0% | 30 | 29 | 20 |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 21.3 | 3.2 | 25.9 | -0.2 | 0.82 | 19.3% | 56.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |