NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 5th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.5 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 27 | DvP | 19 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 14 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 8 | |
Washington Wizards
It was a great weekend of sports. We had the fun golf tournament in Scottsdale, some great NBA action, and then capped it off with one of the best games in Super Bowl history. We kick tonight’s seven game slate off with the Wizards and Pacers in a game that features a total of 213.5 points. Indiana has been an exploitable matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking 18th in defenisve efficiency and 22nd in rebounding differential. The Wizards are listed as 2.5-point underdogs tonight, but have an implied total of 105.5 points.
John Wall will remain out for the next couple of months, which means Tomas Satoransky and Tim Frazier will split the work at point guard. Satoransky is the preferred target of the two, as his minutes are more secure in the rotation. He has also scored at least 23 fantasy points in three of his last four games. The basic rule of thumb when Wall is out is to play Bradley Beal, who has averaged just under 40 fantasy points per game when Wall has been out the last two seasons. Victor Oladipo is an excellent defender, but Beal’s increased usage makes up for the poor matchup.
Otto Porter also sees a healthy boost with Wall out of the lineup. On the season, Porter sees a 4% usage boost and a 0.09 FP/min boost when Wall is off the floor. Porter’s price has come up across the industry, but that’s to be expected after scoring at least 32 fantasy points in four straight games. Kelly Oubre minutes and fantasy production have both gone down since Wall’s injury. We should take a wait and see approach with Oubre until something changes. Markieff Morris is averaging 33 minutes and 34 fantasy points over his last five games and is one of the best point-per-dollar power forward targets tonight.
Notable Injuries
Mike Scott (Questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.9 (12 of 14)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 17.1 | 6.3 | 0.80 | 15.0% | 6 | 9 | 17 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,400 | $8,900 | $16,400 | 38.0 | 10.1 | 36.1 | 1.1 | 1.05 | 26.1% | 22 | 11 | 1 |
| Otto Porter | $7,000 | $7,100 | $13,000 | 30.0 | 5.9 | 31.7 | 1.2 | 0.95 | 16.4% | 6 | 11 | 29 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,900 | $6,000 | $12,800 | 21.6 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 7.2 | 0.83 | 16.1% | 18 | 15 | 11 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,200 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 23.7 | -5.2 | 26.4 | -3.3 | 0.90 | 13.8% | 27 | 27 | 15 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 21.6 | -6.4 | 27.1 | -2.5 | 0.80 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tim Frazier | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 15.4 | 4.2 | 0.83 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter (FD), Markieff Morris (FD)
Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (DK), Markieff Morris (DK), Tomas Satoransky
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, but they are playing at home, which always helps. On the season, the Wizards are ranked between 12th and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers have an implied total of 108 points, which is the third highest on the board and one point above their season average.
Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, and Myles Turner are all listed as questionable for tonight’s game, which complicates matters from a DFS standpoint. Luckily, this is the first game on the schedule, so we’ll get an update well before lineups lock. If Collison is ruled out, the biggest boost would go to Cory Joseph, who would become one of the best value plays on the board. If Oladipo is ruled out, the biggest boost would go to Lance Stephenson, while the rest of the lineup would see a small boost in usage as well.
Turner has missed plenty of time recently, so we know what to expect from this frontcourt if he is ruled out again tonight. Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis would both play 30+ minutes in mediocre matchups against Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat. I’d like to break this side of the ball down a little more, but we are stuck until we know the status of Collison, Oladipo, and Sabonis. There will be viable options from the Pacers, we just have to wait to see which players stand out once we get an update on their injuries.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Questionable)
Darren Collison (Questionable)
Victor Oladipo (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (8 of 14)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,600 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 27.8 | 1.8 | 30.3 | 0.2 | 0.92 | 18.4% | 13 | 19 | 14 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,300 | $8,400 | $15,700 | 41.6 | -1.9 | 34.4 | 1.8 | 1.21 | 27.0% | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 20.1 | 0.3 | 30.3 | -2.1 | 0.66 | 16.1% | 11 | 25 | 1 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,900 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 26.8 | 0.2 | 32.7 | 1.4 | 0.82 | 15.2% | 21 | 2 | 18 |
| Myles Turner | $7,400 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 30.4 | -2.6 | 28.3 | -5.9 | 1.07 | 18.2% | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 20.7 | 5.3 | 23.0 | -0.2 | 0.90 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,300 | $5,500 | $11,500 | 26.7 | 2.1 | 25.5 | -0.4 | 1.05 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.2 | -0.3 | 25.8 | -0.7 | 0.71 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)
Secondary Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)
Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Blake Griffin | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 7 | 28 | 14 | 6 | DvP | 4 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 22 | 10 | 26 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 3 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have lost two games in a row, but have still won seven of their last ten and would make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They face the new-look Pistons tonight in Detroit in a game that features a total of 210.5 points. Detroit has been good defensively all year, but have allowed 102 and 107 points in their first two games with Blake Griffin in the lineup. The Blazers come into the game with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Damian Lillard draws a decent individual matchup against Ish Smith, who has never been an elite defender. Lillard has an elite true usage rate (28%) and should fly under the radar tonight, despite a discounted price point on FanDuel ($8,100). Reggie Bullock isn’t quite as good of a defender as Avery Bradley, but I don’t love the spot for C.J. McCollum. When Lillard is healthy, McCollum’s sweet spot is typically around $6,500. Evan Turner and Shabazz Napier are both listed as questionable. If one is eventually ruled out, the other would provide decent value in a slate that is lacking of cheap plays.
Al-Farouq Aminu’s playing time has come down a little, largely in part thanks to the play of Ed Davis off the bench. Over their last five games, Aminu is averaging 23 fantasy points and Davis is averaging 27 fantasy points. Davis is cheaper and arguably provides more upside. He’s the preferred target of the two, even though Aminu’s minutes are more secure. Jusuf Nurkic has scored at least 34 fantasy points in three of his last four games and could see a few extra minutes tonight, as they’ll need his defense against Andre Drummond. Nurkic is always a wildcard when it comes to DFS tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Shabazz Napier (Questionable)
Evan Turner (Questionable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (11 of 14)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $8,100 | $9,000 | $15,700 | 42.1 | -0.1 | 36.4 | -1.4 | 1.16 | 28.3% | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,000 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 33.6 | 2.2 | 36.1 | -2.5 | 0.93 | 24.7% | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| Evan Turner | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.4 | -3.8 | 26.6 | -1.8 | 0.66 | 14.7% | 26 | 28 | 10 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $4,800 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 23.5 | 0.0 | 30.0 | -1.1 | 0.78 | 13.2% | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 30.2 | 3.5 | 26.6 | -2.6 | 1.13 | 23.0% | 14 | 6 | 5 |
| Shabazz Napier | $3,700 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 18.6 | -8.7 | 21.5 | 1.5 | 0.87 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ed Davis | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 17.9 | 9.0 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 0.95 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (FD), Ed Davis (FD), Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (DK), Ed Davis (DK), Jusuf Nurkic (Cash), C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have won three games in a row and are now 2-0 with Blake Griffin in the lineup. I’m not sure this is a team to be reckoned with in the playoffs, but they certainly have one of the most talented frontcourts in the NBA. Tonight they host the Blazers, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons come into the game with an implied total 106.3 points, which is significantly higher than their season average.
Ish Smith is finally starting to have the big fantasy outings we were expecting from him when Reggie Jackson went down with an injury. Over his last five games, Smith is averaging 33 minutes and 31 fantasy points. The Blazers have been tough on opposing point guards, but Jackson is still viable on DraftKings at a price of $5,500. Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson should both play minutes in the 30s, but are both overpriced across the industry. There aren’t a ton of value plays in this slate, but we can find better point-per-dollar options.
The two top plays from Detroit both come in the frontcourt. In his first two games with the Pistons, Griffin has scored 49 and 37 fantasy points. He’s going to play a full complement of minutes every night and he has a decent size advantage over Al-Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond has scored 45 and 67 fantasy points in his first two games playing alongside Griffin. He’s been a beast on the glass and will benefit from Griffin’s ability to set up his frontcourt mate in the paint. The problem with Drummond is the matchup — Jusuf Nurkic is one of the best low-post defenders around and the Blazers as a whole are ranked fourth in efficiency against centers.
Notable Injuries
Dwight Buycks (Questionable)
Luke Kennard (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (9 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (5 of 14)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,500 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 23.9 | 8.8 | 0.93 | 23.0% | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 15.5 | 7.9 | 24.8 | 8.2 | 0.63 | 12.1% | 15 | 18 | 21 |
| Stanley Johnson | $5,700 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 18.5 | 7.4 | 27.7 | 2.3 | 0.67 | 14.6% | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| Blake Griffin | $9,100 | $8,500 | $15,700 | 41.1 | 1.8 | 34.6 | 1.3 | 1.19 | 27.5% | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,500 | $9,200 | $16,900 | 45.6 | 7.6 | 33.1 | 0.3 | 1.38 | 18.7% | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Elite Plays – Blake Griffin
Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond, Ish Smith (DK), Reggie Bullock (FD), Stanley Johnson (DK),
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Mario Hezonja | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Kelly Olynyk | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 12 | DvP | 30 | 29 | 20 | 28 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 24 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 26 | |
Orlando Magic
The Magic aren’t going anywhere fast and could be very active in the next few days leading up to the trade deadline. They currently own the worst record in the Eastern Conference and have been stuck in neutral for the last few seasons. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked third in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. The Magic have the lowest implied total (100 points) and the lowest projected point differential (-5.5) of any team in the slate.
With a low team total on the road against a stout defense, there isn’t a lot to love when it comes to the Magic. There are seven games on the schedule tonight, so we can afford to fade teams as a whole. Orlando is certainly on my short list of teams to avoid completely. The one player that I have interest in tonight is Mario Hezonja. In the 12 games that Aaron Gordon has missed this season, Hezonja has averaged 26 fantasy points per contest, compared to ten fantasy points per game when Gordon is active. Jonathon Simmons should also see a small boost, although the matchup is far from ideal.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Nikola Vucevic (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (14 of 14)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,800 | $6,300 | $12,900 | 30.1 | 2.0 | 28.8 | -3.3 | 1.05 | 21.7% | 1 | 3 | 24 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 27.8 | -2.9 | 32.5 | -1.6 | 0.85 | 20.8% | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,500 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 22.4 | -2.0 | 28.7 | -0.3 | 0.78 | 19.5% | 16 | 5 | 3 |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 18.1 | 5.7 | 0.81 | 16.1% | 10 | 3 | 19 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $5,200 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 17.1 | 1.5 | 18.9 | 4.9 | 0.90 | 10.6% | 9 | 12 | 1 |
Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja
Secondary Plays – Jonathon Simmons
Miami Heat
The Heat are coming off of a loss to the Pistons and have now lost six of their last ten games. Luckily, they get to face the slump-busting Magic at home. On the season, Orlando is ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat’s implied total of 107 points tonight may not look like much compared to the other teams in the slate, but it is seven points higher than their season average.
Goran Dragic scored fewer than 32 fantasy points in five straight games before his 53 fantasy point outing against the Pistons. I’d like to see a little more consistency out of him before targeting him in cash games, but he is grading out as one of the better point guard targets available tonight. The Magic are ranked dead last in efficiency and DvP against point guards. Tyler Johnson was relegated to a bench role and can be avoided tonight, despite the favorable matchup against Orlando.
Justise Winslow is expected to draw another start at small forward. With limited value available tonight, Winslow stands out as a nice option at small forward. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26 minutes and 22 fantasy points. Josh Richardson will play around 35 minutes against one of the worst defenses in basketball. That’s really the only explanation I need to give. As always, Richardson is a strong cash game target. With Miami getting healthy on the wing, Wayne Ellington has played fewer than 30 minutes in three of his last four games.
Hassan Whiteside missed the last game with an illness, but is expected to start tonight’s game against the Magic. This is truly an elite matchup, as the Magic struggle to rebound and defend the paint. We never quite know which Whiteside is going to show up, but he provides plenty of upside for tournaments. Whiteside’s presence cuts into the fantasy appeal of Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson, and Bam Adebayo. Of the three, Olynyk provides the most tournament appeal and Johnson has the highest floor for cash games.
Notable Injuries
Hassan Whiteside (Probable)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 6.7 (2 of 14)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,000 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 30.0 | -2.3 | 31.7 | -3.0 | 0.94 | 25.5% | 30 | 30 | 21 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,500 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 26.3 | 6.6 | 34.2 | 0.4 | 0.77 | 16.5% | 27 | 29 | 27 |
| Justise Winslow | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 18.3 | 3.7 | 23.3 | 2.8 | 0.78 | 14.0% | 25 | 20 | 30 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,100 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 23.0 | 5.1 | 23.7 | 2.0 | 0.97 | 18.8% | 19 | 28 | 24 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,800 | $8,100 | $14,700 | 35.0 | -8.9 | 25.6 | -4.0 | 1.37 | 20.1% | 23 | 22 | 26 |
| James Johnson | $5,300 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 24.5 | -2.1 | 26.8 | 0.5 | 0.91 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 18.0 | -1.0 | 26.3 | 3.5 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,900 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 20.3 | 2.9 | 0.90 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Josh Richardson, Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (Cash), Justise Winslow, Hassan Whiteside (Cash), James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk (GPP)
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.5 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 9 | DvP | 13 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 2 | |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have won five games in a row and are right back in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. One team that they might be able to pass eventually is the Hornets, who are always one of the best matchups for fantasy production. On the season, New Orleans is ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Jazz come into the game as 1.5-point underdogs with an implied total 106.5 points.
The key injury to monitor in this game is the availability of Donovan Mitchell. If he is unable to suit up, Ricky Rubio and Rodney Hood would see massive bumps in minutes and/or usage. Rubio has been playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 39 fantasy points over his last five games. His price is expensive, but I’m willing to pay a premium if Mitchell is ruled out. If Mitchell is able to play, he makes a great fantasy option himself. The Pelicans have long struggled to defend talented wing players.
Joe Ingles has been quiet recently, but should see around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against New Orleans. His price point of $4,400 on FanDuel is appealing, especially if Mitchell is eventually ruled out. Derrick Favors has averaged over 30 fantasy points per game in his last five outings and is a nice pivot off of Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic in tournaments. My original hot take of the day was that Rudy Gobert would outscore Anthony Davis, but that’s tough to do. I do like Gobert’s chances to outscore him from a points-per-dollar perspective. Gobert is averaging 37 fantasy points over his last five games and could see a few extra minutes tonight.
Notable Injuries
Donovan Mitchell (Questionable)
Rodney Hood (Probable)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (4 of 14)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.7 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $7,000 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 26.6 | 12.8 | 29.4 | 3.6 | 0.90 | 20.5% | 18 | 20 | 27 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,000 | $7,100 | $13,400 | 32.1 | 8.7 | 31.9 | 3.0 | 1.01 | 25.4% | 30 | 26 | 3 |
| Joe Ingles | $4,400 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 22.9 | -1.5 | 30.5 | -0.4 | 0.75 | 14.4% | 14 | 19 | 28 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,400 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 27.1 | 4.1 | 28.0 | -2.1 | 0.97 | 16.7% | 27 | 26 | 12 |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,300 | $7,400 | $13,700 | 33.3 | 3.9 | 30.2 | 2.1 | 1.10 | 14.4% | 21 | 9 | 3 |
| Rodney Hood | $4,000 | $4,900 | $10,300 | 23.6 | -17.4 | 27.9 | -11.9 | 0.85 | 23.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Johnson | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 14.6 | 3.3 | 22.0 | 0.3 | 0.67 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors (GPP), Ricky Rubio & Rodney Hood (if Mitchell is out), Donovan Mitchell (if active)
Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors (Cash), Ricky Rubio & Rodney Hood (if Mitchell is active), Joe Ingles (FD)
New Orleans Pelicans
When DeMarcus Cousins went down with his season-ending injury, many expected the Pelicans to shop Anthony Davis. Instead of having a fire sale before the trade deadline, New Orleans went out and picked up Nikola Mirotic, who was having an excellent season with Chicago. The move could be enough to keep the Pelicans in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. Tonight’s matchup against the Jazz is a difficult one, as Utah is ranked fourth in points allowed per game this season. The Pelicans have an implied total of 108 points, which is three points below their season average.
Rajon Rondo minutes and fantasy production continue to trend in the wrong direction. He’s been outplayed by Ian Clark, who is averaging 15 fantasy points over his last five games. For now, we should avoid both of the Pelicans’ point guards. Jrue Holiday sees a monster usage and FP/min boost with Cousins out of the lineup. Despite averaging 39 fantasy points over his last five games, I expect Holiday to be low owned against the Jazz. He’s an excellent tournament play, as he can rack up fantasy points in a number of ways. Holiday doesn’t rely on scoring as much as most shooting guards.
Nikola Mirotic played as many minutes in his first game with the Pelicans (35) as he did in any game all season with the Bulls. New Orleans is not going to bring him along slowly, which is exactly what we want to see from a DFS perspective. Even though the matchup is less than ideal, I have a ton of interest in Mirotic. On the season, he is averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute. The Miro-fade is easier on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he will be locked into my core group of players. Anthony Davis has a decent track record against the Jazz and obviously benefits from Cousins being out. The problem is that the slate doesn’t feature many value plays, at least not as of the time of writing this (around 12:30 PM ET).
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.8 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (13 of 14)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 22.9 | -2.8 | 24.2 | -1.5 | 0.95 | 17.0% | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| Jrue Holiday | $7,300 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 35.6 | 3.1 | 36.9 | -0.5 | 0.96 | 20.7% | 17 | 1 | 14 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 21.6 | -2.4 | 32.0 | -4.7 | 0.67 | 14.7% | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 12.4 | -1.0 | 21.9 | -0.4 | 0.57 | 9.0% | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,700 | $11,200 | $21,100 | 51.3 | 9.4 | 36.4 | 1.2 | 1.41 | 24.8% | 5 | 17 | 2 |
| Darius Miller | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 22.8 | 3.8 | 0.57 | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,500 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 29.4 | 0.3 | 25.3 | 2.8 | 1.16 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Clark | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 16.8 | 6.2 | 0.62 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Mirotic, Jrue Holiday (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash), Anthony Davis, Darius Miller
Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.5 | Implied Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Frank Kaminsky | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 3 | 18 | 22 | 14 | DvP | 14 | 8 | 27 | 17 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 26 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 5 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have won three games in a row and are back in the mix in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They still have some work to do, but certainly have the talent to make it to the postseason. Tonight they head to Denver to take on a Nuggets’ team that is ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and nearly identical to their season average.
Kemba Walker draws the best matchup of the five starters and one of the most exploitable ones of any player in the slate. The Nuggets are ranked 28th in efficiency and 27th in DvP against point guards this season. Walker is priced up around the industry, but this is certainly the matchup to pay a premium for him. Nicolas Batum draws a much tougher matchup against Gary Harris, who is one of the better on-ball defenders in basketball. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist provides some much needed value at small forward, even though his recent play has been uninspiring.
We have to take a wait and see approach with the Hornets’ power forwards. Marvin Williams has missed the last three games with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. if he is unable to suit up, Frank Kaminsky would become a solid option in tournaments. Frank the Tank is averaging 0.81 fantasy points per minute on the season and could push for 30 minutes if he is playing well. Dwight Howard has been on a tear over the last month of play, but will have his hands full with Nikola Jokic. I’m excited to watch these two battle, but they are both elite defenders, which limits their appeal from a fantasy perspective.
Notable Injuries
Marvin Williams (Questionable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (10 of 14)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $9,000 | $8,800 | $16,000 | 37.6 | 5.1 | 35.0 | 3.1 | 1.08 | 27.2% | 28 | 27 | 26 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,800 | $6,700 | $13,100 | 26.4 | 7.3 | 31.6 | 2.9 | 0.83 | 18.5% | 12 | 3 | 3 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,400 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 21.0 | -5.3 | 26.4 | -0.6 | 0.79 | 15.1% | 8 | 18 | 22 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 18.8 | -3.3 | 23.3 | 1.9 | 0.81 | 19.0% | 23 | 22 | 18 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,800 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 37.5 | 5.3 | 31.1 | 4.0 | 1.21 | 19.1% | 16 | 14 | 8 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,700 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 25.0 | -3.7 | 25.2 | -3.5 | 0.99 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Secondary Plays – Frank Kaminsky (if Williams is out), Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lamb
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have won six of their last ten games and are only a game and a half out of the fifth seed in the Western Conference. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, but they are playing in Denver, which always helps. The Nuggets come into the game with an implied total of 112.5 points, which is the highest of the slate and six points above their season average.
Jamal Murray can be inconsistent at times, but he comes into the game in good form. Over his last five outings, he is averaging 33 minutes and 31 fantasy points. There is no reason to think he can’t exceed value tonight against Kemba Walker, who is an average on-ball defender at best. Gary Harris and Will Barton are viable in all formats, but they do draw difficult matchups. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are both excellent wing defenders. If we are price shopping, Harris is the better buy on FanDuel and Barton is the better buy on DraftKings.
Wilson Chandler missed a couple games with an illness, but should see a full complement of minutes tonight. With Mason Plumlee out, there are more minutes available for both Chandler and Trey Lyles. Lyles obviously has the higher floor/ceiling combination, but Chandler is significantly cheaper. I typically don’t target centers against Dwight Howard, but Nikola Jokic isn’t your typical center. He has one of the most complete all-around games of any big man in basketball, which makes him matchup-proof. At a price of $8,700 on DraftKings, he should be on your radar in both cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (3 of 14)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,600 | $6,400 | $12,300 | 26.4 | 4.6 | 30.2 | 3.0 | 0.87 | 21.9% | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| Gary Harris | $6,400 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 30.3 | 0.4 | 35.0 | 1.7 | 0.86 | 18.8% | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| Will Barton | $7,200 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 29.5 | 3.8 | 31.9 | 6.5 | 0.92 | 20.2% | 21 | 27 | 7 |
| Wilson Chandler | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 19.6 | -7.6 | 30.5 | -8.2 | 0.64 | 13.0% | 26 | 17 | 30 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,900 | $8,700 | $15,800 | 40.2 | 6.3 | 31.7 | 4.3 | 1.27 | 22.3% | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| Trey Lyles | $6,100 | $5,300 | $11,500 | 21.2 | 6.3 | 20.8 | 2.8 | 1.02 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |