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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-24 04:00:28

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Editor’s Note: Kawhi Leonard has been ruled OUT for tonight. Anthony Davis is now considered unlikely to play.

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 213.5 Article Image Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 109.0
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 26 15 8 26 Adj. DvP 4 3 17 27 6
DRPM -0.87 0.81 1.81 0.28 2.25 DRPM -0.22 -0.71 1.33 1.10 1.46

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and have moved up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight they square off against a Hornets’ team that they will likely be battling with for playoff positioning at the end of the season. Charlotte has been tough defensively, ranking tenth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have also been very good at home, which helps explain why the Wizards’ implied total if 1.6 points below their season average.

John Wall is having a career year and deserves to be considered one of the best point guards in the Eastern Conference. He is averaging 44.9 fantasy points per game and he has a true usage rate of 34.5%, which is second only to Russell Westbrook as far as point guards are concerned. Kemba Walker is a decent defender, but Wall is my favorite point guard target above $9,000 in this slate. Bradley Beal has cooled off his in last few games, averaging only 23 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a tough individual matchup against the likes of Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Otto Porter is coming off of a nice three-game stretch, but it’s hard to pay a premium for him in this matchup. The same can be said for Markieff Morris, who is priced well above $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Marcin Gortat’s minutes have been down recently, but his price is cheap across the industry and he draws a nice matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked 26th against centers this season. Gortat is my second favorite play here after Wall.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,700 $9,300 1.24 36.3 1.3 44.9 4.9 34.5% -1.0% 11 -0.87
Bradley Beal $6,700 $6,700 0.91 34.4 3.1 31.3 -8.8 26.4% -3.9% 26 0.81
Otto Porter $6,300 $6,200 0.83 33.7 -0.9 28.1 5.1 15.5% 2.6% 15 1.81
Markieff Morris $6,400 $6,300 0.81 31.7 4.3 25.8 8.1 20.2% 1.4% 8 0.28
Marcin Gortat $5,700 $5,800 0.83 35.0 -4.5 29.0 -3.4 14.2% 0.0% 26 2.25

Elite Plays – John Wall

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Charlotte Hornets

After a bad stretch, the Hornets have rebounded nicely, winning three games in a row. They have played well at home all season, they just haven’t been able to get anything going on the road. Luckily, they get to host the Wizards tonight in a game that has sneaky shootout potential. The Hornets are listed as 4.5-point favorites with an implied total of 109 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 3.6 points above their season average. Washington is always one of my favorite teams to target players against, as they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

Kemba Walker was quiet the other night against the Nets, but he has played well at home all season. He has an elite true usage rate of 30.4% and he has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last three meetings with the Wizards. Walker is a better play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, given the discount. Nicolas Batum is averaging 33.3 fantasy points per game on the season and has seen a massive bump in usage over the last month of play. He is a strong mid-range option at shooting guard if you don’t want to pay up for the likes of James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a safe target in all formats again, especially if Jeremy Lamb is ruled out again. He is averaging 31 fantasy points over his last three games. Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller have played well at times this season, but neither stands out as an elite play tonight against Washington. If I’m targeting any big man here, it will be Frank Kaminsky off the bench. In his last three games, he is averaging 25 minutes and 25 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,900 $8,100 1.08 33.7 -2.5 36.5 0.3 30.4% -0.2% 4 -0.22
Nicolas Batum $7,300 $7,700 0.97 34.4 -1.2 33.3 0.3 23.8% 3.9% 3 -0.71
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,400 $5,400 0.77 29.8 2.3 23.0 7.7 14.3% 0.7% 17 1.33
Marvin Williams $4,800 $4,600 0.76 27.0 -3.4 20.4 2.0 17.2% -1.8% 27 1.10
Cody Zeller $5,000 $5,000 0.87 26.7 -0.3 23.1 -2.3 16.3% -1.8% 6 1.46
Frank Kaminsky $4,100 $4,000 0.81 24.4 0.9 19.8 4.9 20.7% -2.7% 27 N/A
Marco Belinelli $4,000 $3,800 0.70 24.5 -1.9 17.2 2.7 18.6% 1.6% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (FD), Nicolas Batum (FD), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (DK), Nicolas Batum (DK), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Frank Kaminsky

Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Miami Heat
Article Image Vegas Total 217.0 Article Image Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -11.5 Vegas Spread 11.5
Team Total 114.3 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- 4.4
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 13 10 13 9 Adj. DvP 13 23 8 12 27
DRPM -2.34 -1.00 -0.11 1.32 1.31 DRPM -0.18 -1.10 1.71 3.84 2.93

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are playing their second games in as many days, after beating the Magic in Orlando yesterday afternoon. As a team, they have won seven games in a row and nine of their last ten. They come into tonight’s contest as 11.5-point favorites against a struggling Heat team. While the Warriors still have the highest implied total in the slate, it is considerably lower than their season average. Even through their recent struggles, Miami is still an above-average defensive team. On the season, they are ranked 22nd in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game.

Stephen Curry has been playing his best basketball of the season over the last few weeks and he draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. Goran Dragic is not known for his play on the defensive end of the floor. The issue is always the same for Curry; there are always so many great options at point guard that he often gets bumped down to a secondary play. Klay Thompson price seems a bit too cheap right now and I don’t mind targeting players against Dion Waiters. Thompson is a little too volatile to use in cash games though. I slightly prefer Kevin Durant over LeBron James tonight, although neither player is a building block for my lineups. I will likely have limited exposure to both and only in tournaments. Draymond Green has struggled in his last three games and his price has gone up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The one play that could fly under the radar here is Zaza Pachulia. He is averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games and the Warriors may have to play big with Hassan Whiteside on the floor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,000 $8,700 1.18 33.5 -1.3 39.7 -0.3 29.9% -0.1% 10 -2.34
Klay Thompson $6,200 $6,300 0.85 34.2 -1.5 29.1 -5.6 23.6% -2.0% 13 -1.00
Kevin Durant $10,600 $10,000 1.37 34.3 -2.1 47.1 7.6 27.7% -0.3% 10 -0.11
Draymond Green $8,200 $8,000 1.11 33.2 1.0 36.7 -4.1 19.1% 1.2% 13 1.32
Zaza Pachulia $4,200 $3,800 0.93 18.7 1.1 17.4 5.3 14.8% 4.2% 9 1.31
Andre Iguodala $4,000 $3,700 0.68 25.2 1.6 17.2 3.9 11.7% 0.5% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson (GPP), Kevin Durant, Zaza Pachulia

Miami Heat

The Heat looked like they were tanking there for a while, but have since won three games in a row. If they could take down the Warriors, they would really start getting people’s attention. They come into the game as 11.5-point underdogs and while the Warriors play at a fast pace, they have the best defense in the NBA in terms of efficiency. The Heat’s implied total of 102.8 points seems a bit high to me, but I could see them reaching that number if they get caught up in the Warriors’ pace of play. The real concern here is a potential blowout, but at least the Warriors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

Goran Dragic should play as many minutes as he can handle tonight, especially now that Tyler Johnson has been ruled out. Dragic is averaging 38 fantasy points over his last three games and is relatively affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Dollar for dollar, he is one of my favorite point guard options in the slate. Dion Waiters should also see minutes in the low to mid-30s with Johnson out. Waiters is averaging 28 fantasy points over his last three games and is only $5,500 on FanDuel. Hassan Whiteside numbers are down across the board recently, but he has scored 41 and 55 fantasy points in his last two games against Golden State. This could be a good time to hop on him in tournaments, especially on DraftKings ($7,700). James Johnson has seen his role grow over the last few weeks and he has taken full advantage of it. This is a game where he could push for 32-34 minutes, as the Heat will need his athleticism on both ends of the floor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,100 $7,200 0.95 34.4 1.7 32.7 5.3 28.9% -0.9% 13 -0.18
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.51 25.6 -6.2 12.9 -2.6 12.0% 1.0% 23 -1.10
Dion Waiters $5,500 $5,700 0.79 29.8 1.1 23.7 4.7 26.5% 2.9% 8 1.71
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.52 15.8 1.6 8.2 0.3 13.4% -4.8% 12 3.84
Hassan Whiteside $8,500 $7,700 1.16 33.6 -3.0 39.1 -6.8 21.5% -4.0% 27 2.93
James Johnson $5,900 $6,000 0.90 25.9 6.7 23.4 0.5 22.3% -1.0% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters (FD), James Johnson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (DK), James Johnson (DK), Hassan Whiteside (DK)

Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Detroit Pistons
Article Image Vegas Total 203.0 Article Image Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.0 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- -2.2 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Garrett Temple Arron Afflalo DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 9 11 11 17 Adj. DvP 25 19 16 15 15
DRPM -2.30 0.21 0.28 -1.31 1.79 DRPM -2.56 0.30 -2.16 0.51 2.82

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have lost five games in a row and have lost Rudy Gay for the season. After having some hopes of making a playoff push, they appear destined for the lottery once again. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 26th in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game. Detroit is listed as a 5-point underdog with an implied total of only 99 points. I wouldn’t blame anyone if they wanted to face the Kings as a whole. With that said, there are two players that I should at least bring up. Darren Collison should see around 30 minutes against a Pistons’ defense that is ranked 22nd against point guards this season. Collison is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. DeMarcus Cousins always carries some GPP appeal, regardless of his matchup. In his last three meetings with Andre Drummond, Cousins has scored 44, 52, and 50 fantasy points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $4,500 $4,800 0.74 29.3 0.2 21.7 -0.7 21.3% -4.5% 22 -2.30
Garrett Temple $4,300 $4,200 0.64 26.0 4.7 16.6 5.2 14.4% 1.3% 9 0.21
Arron Afflalo $3,600 $3,000 0.49 23.8 6.6 11.7 4.8 14.2% -2.5% 11 0.28
DeMarcus Cousins $10,900 $10,500 1.42 34.5 -0.4 49.0 2.0 36.6% 1.4% 11 -1.31
Kosta Koufos $3,600 $3,000 0.78 19.5 4.8 15.2 1.1 14.1% -0.8% 17 1.79
Ty Lawson $4,300 $4,000 0.75 25.0 -2.0 18.8 4.1 21.6% 7.0% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – DeMarcus Cousins (Cash), Darren Collison

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons were missing two big pieces of their rotation, but Jon Leuer and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are expected to be available tonight. Detroit is currently outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, but they have won three games in a row and should be able to move up in the standings over the next few months. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Pistons have an implied total of 104 points, which is 3.5 points above their season average.

After failing to top 25 fantasy points in four straight games, Reggie Jackson has bounced back nicely in his last two, scoring 35 and 32 fantasy points. I get the feeling that most DFS players are still hesitant to roster him, but he stands out as a truly elite play at his price point, especially on FanDuel. The Kings are ranked 25th against point guards this season and Darren Collison has a DRPM of -2.56. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, but I will wait a game or two before targeting him in DFS. Marcus Morris may not have 40 minute upside anymore, but he has been in great form and he is still underpriced on FanDuel at $5,400. Tobias Harris is also worth a look on FanDuel at $6,100. DraftKings always does a nice job with their pricing by making us consider players that are in bad matchups. I hate targeting centers opposing DeMarcus Cousins, but Drummond is only $7,100. Drummond plays better at home and he has scored 33, 37, and 43 fantasy points in his last three games against Cousins.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $6,400 $6,600 0.92 29.1 1.4 26.9 4.0 31.2% 4.9% 25 -2.56
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,400 $5,400 0.74 33.6 24.8 19.9% 19 0.30
Marcus Morris $5,400 $5,900 0.72 32.5 6.2 23.3 15.4 20.1% 1.2% 16 -2.16
Tobias Harris $6,100 $6,200 0.82 33.1 1.9 27.0 5.3 21.3% 1.0% 15 0.51
Andre Drummond $7,700 $7,100 1.18 30.4 -6.2 35.8 -1.6 21.9% 6.0% 15 2.82
Jon Leuer $4,500 $4,300 0.81 26.7 -2.2 21.6 3.5 16.8% -1.0% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris (FD), Tobias Harris (FD), Andre Drummond (DK)

Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris (DK), Tobias Harris (DK), Andre Drummond (FD)

San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Brooklyn Nets
Article Image Vegas Total 217.5 Article Image Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread -11.0 Vegas Spread 11.0
Team Total 114.3 Team Total 103.3
Pace +/- 5.5 Pace +/- -2.5
Proj. Starter Dejounte Murray Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David Lee Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 30 30 25 29 Adj. DvP 2 18 4 2 1
DRPM -0.23 -2.44 -3.42 2.13 -0.34 DRPM -0.78 0.70 0.99 0.96 1.10

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are playing short-handed right now, as Tony Parker and Pau Gasol are both injured. Manu Ginobili hurt his back at the end of the game against the Cavaliers and has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. The Spurs draw the best matchup in all of fantasy basketball tonight, as the Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. Despite missing two starters, the Spurs still have an implied total of 114.3 points, which is tied with the Warriors for the highest team total in the slate. The only concern is a potential blowout, as the game features a spread of 11 points.

In the last two games that Tony Parker has missed, Dejounte Murray has played 34 and 22 minutes and has scored 30 and 23 fantasy points. He should draw another start tonight and see minutes in the mid-20s against a Nets’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards. Murray is an elite play on FanDuel and I love that he is listed as a shooting guard. Patty Mills should see a similar allotment of minutes and we know he can get hot at any moment. He is also a borderline elite play in all formats. With Manu Ginobili out, we may see Murray and Mills share the floor and it’s not too crazy to think about rostering them both. We would basically get access to 48+ minutes of a point guard against the Nets at a combined price of only $7,400 on FanDuel and $8,100 on DraftKings. Danny Green is a constant letdown, but we have to consider him at his price with Ginobili out. Kawhi Leonard should be a usage monster with Parker and Gasol out, but we certainly don’t get a discount. He is almost as expensive as LeBron James and Kevin Durant and I still prefer Leonard over both. LaMarcus Aldridge is quite a bit cheaper than Leonard and is a slightly better play dollar for dollar. David Lee is averaging 34 minutes and 34 fantasy points in his last two games. He should be a popular value play tonight at power forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dejounte Murray $3,800 $4,100 0.82 7.8 20.5 6.4 20.5 26.8% -6.2% 30 -0.23
Danny Green $3,500 $3,500 0.62 26.0 1.4 16.0 0.5 13.0% -0.6% 30 -2.44
Kawhi Leonard $9,800 $9,400 1.20 33.6 6.6 40.2 11.6 29.6% 2.4% 30 -3.42
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,600 $6,900 0.97 32.5 3.2 31.5 4.3 23.2% -1.9% 25 2.13
David Lee $5,100 $5,500 0.91 17.8 10.0 16.2 12.1 16.9% -3.3% 29 -0.34
Patty Mills $3,600 $4,000 0.80 21.9 0.2 17.6 -0.9 21.9% 1.6% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, David Lee, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – Danny Green

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have lost nine of their last ten games and have the worst record in the entire NBA. They are on the losing end of blowouts all the time, although thankfully this game is being played in Brooklyn. They have been much more competitive at home than they have been on the road. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked second in pace of play and third in points allowed per game this season. The Nets have a projected point differential of -3.0, which is the fifth worst mark in the slate. As a whole, I don’t mind the Nets’ fade, but if you are targeting a few Spurs’ players, you may want to consider a Nets’ player or two. With Joe Harris out, Sean Kilpatrick should draw another start at shooting guard. He played 27 minutes against the Hornets the other night and scored 27 fantasy points. Brook Lopez is also worth a look on DraftKings at $6,500. I like his chances against David Lee down low, although I see Lopez as more of a GPP play than a cash game option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $3,700 $3,400 0.67 19.3 5.7 12.9 -1.5 16.8% -2.9% 2 -0.78
Sean Kilpatrick $4,100 $4,300 0.83 27.0 -0.2 22.4 -2.9 24.2% -3.4% 18 0.70
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 $4,400 0.76 26.6 -1.2 20.2 4.6 21.1% 2.1% 4 0.99
Trevor Booker $5,300 $5,000 0.96 27.2 -2.7 26.2 -4.5 17.3% -1.6% 2 0.96
Brook Lopez $7,600 $6,500 1.12 29.3 -0.3 32.8 7.7 28.2% 5.0% 1 1.10

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (FD)

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (DK), Brook Lopez (DK)

Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Atlanta Hawks
Article Image Vegas Total 206.5 Article Image Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Marreese Speights DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 15 11 14 14 4 Adj. DvP 5 6 22 7 19
DRPM -2.38 -0.24 2.98 3.91 2.39 DRPM -2.23 -1.36 2.97 0.55 2.66

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers were hoping to have Blake Griffin back in the lineup tonight, but that will have to wait. He is expected to return to the court soon, but he has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Hawks. This is a tough spot for the Clippers, as they are sizable underdogs on the road. The Hawks are currently ranked seventh in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. While some of the low implied total has to do with the fact that the Clippers are missing Griffin and Chris Paul, I’m not overly thrilled about loading up on players from a team that is only projected to score 100 points.

Even though this looks like a tough spot on paper, there are still a few intriguing fantasy options from the Clippers tonight. Raymond Felton has averaged 12.6 fantasy points in games that Chris Paul has played and 26.9 fantasy points in games that Paul has sat out. I prefer Felton over Rivers tonight and it doesn’t hurt that he is the cheaper of the two on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Jamal Crawford also sees a big boost with Paul out and is certainly in play on FanDuel at only $3,900. Marreese Speights has always been a point-per-minute beast, but he typically doesn’t play more than 16-18 minutes. We’ve seen that change recently, as Speights is averaging 25 minutes and 28 fantasy points in his last three games. He offers great upside at his price point. DeAndre Jordan is playing his best basketball of the season, but I have a hard time paying a premium for him in a matchup against Dwight Howard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,400 $5,900 0.68 26.5 5.5 18.0 7.3 20.1% 2.1% 15 -2.38
J.J. Redick $4,700 $5,100 0.73 27.8 0.1 20.3 2.7 21.7% -0.3% 11 -0.24
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.53 23.5 0.4 12.5 -4.2 11.4% -2.0% 14 2.98
Marreese Speights $4,500 $4,300 1.10 16.8 7.8 18.4 9.3 23.7% 0.3% 14 3.91
DeAndre Jordan $8,400 $7,900 1.07 32.0 0.0 34.1 12.7 14.9% 5.1% 4 2.39
Jamal Crawford $3,900 $4,400 0.66 26.3 -1.8 17.4 -2.0 23.5% 1.1% 11 N/A
Raymond Felton $4,900 $5,600 0.72 21.8 8.5 15.7 11.7 18.3% 1.1% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Raymond Felton (FD), Marreese Speights (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Raymond Felton (Cash), Marreese Speights (Cash), Jamal Crawford (FD), Austin Rivers, DeAndre Jordan

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They have won eight of their last ten games and have moved all the way up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings. A matchup against the Clippers would typically be a difficult one, but Los Angeles will be without their two best players. Atlanta comes into the game as a 6.5-point favorite with an implied total of 106.5 points. While I like the spot for Atlanta as a whole, I’m not particularly thrilled about any of their individual matchups. Dennis Schroder has been too inconsistent recently. Tim Hardaway, Kent Bazemore, and Thabo Sefolosha are all averaging less than 25 minutes in their last three games. Dwight Howard has a difficult matchup against DeAndre Jordan. The only play that I am really considering here is Paul Millsap. He is only $7,800 on DraftKings and he should see around 35 minutes of action if this game stays close.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,500 $6,100 0.96 30.5 -2.5 29.2 0.5 29.8% 1.4% 5 -2.23
Kent Bazemore $4,300 $4,500 0.75 26.8 -5.5 20.1 -5.7 20.6% 1.8% 6 -1.36
Thabo Sefolosha $3,600 $3,600 0.72 25.8 -2.4 18.7 -5.7 13.9% -2.4% 22 2.97
Paul Millsap $8,100 $7,800 1.06 33.9 -4.9 36.0 -1.5 25.1% 2.2% 7 0.55
Dwight Howard $6,900 $7,000 1.14 29.1 -2.7 33.1 -9.3 18.7% -1.8% 19 2.66
Tim Hardaway $4,700 $4,700 0.78 22.8 -0.4 17.7 1.2 22.8% 1.8% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious