NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-01-30 02:53:28

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		212.0					Vegas Total		212.0
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		1.3
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	8	12	19	27		DvP	15	4	27	16	8
DRPM Rat.	17	1	28	9	16		DRPM Rat.	10	7	8	19	4

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost five of their last ten games and would miss the playoffs if the regular season ended today. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in a game that features a total of 213.5 points. The Pacers are a slightly favorable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 16th in defensive efficiency and 21st in rebounding differential this season. Charlotte is listed as a 3-point underdog with an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the sixth highest on the board.

Kemba Walker continues to play well for the Hornets, averaging 37 minutes and 44 fantasy points over his last five games. He has already had an elite true usage rate (27%) and we are starting to see him rack up more peripheral statistics over the last couple of weeks. While the Pacers are ranked fourth in efficiency against point guards, Darren Collison isn’t an elite defender at this stage of his career. Nicolas Batum will lock horns with Victor Oladipo, who quietly has one of the best DRPM grades of any shooting guard in basketball.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will flash some upside every now and then and is priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. From a DRPM standpoint, he has the best matchup of the five starters since he’ll square off against Bojan Bogdanovic. Marvin Williams is averaging 28 minutes and 21 fantasy points over his last five games and is worth a look on FanDuel ($4,500) where we have to roster two power forwards. Dwight Howard can be great when motivated and he is coming off of his best five-game stretch in potentially years, averaging 35 minutes and 53 fantasy points. People will be hesitant to pay this price for Howard, but we can’t ask for a better matchup. The Pacers are ranked 28th in efficiency against centers and have the tenth worst rebounding differential.

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Out)
Michael Carter-Williams (Questionable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (7 of 12)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (Cash), Nicolas Batum (FD), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Marvin Williams (FD)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs as the seven seed if the regular season ended today. They draw a difficult matchup on paper, but the Hornets are significantly better when playing at home compared to on the road. The fact that the Pacers are projected to score more points than their season average goes to show how poorly the Hornets have been on the defensive end of the floor on the road. The Pacers have the second highest implied total at 107.5 points.

Darren Collison played well against the Cavaliers and then backed it up with an efficient performance against the Magic. He’s not going to push for 35 minutes anytime soon, but he is one of the top point-per-dollar targets at point guard tonight on FanDuel ($5,400). Victor Oladipo has the toughest matchup of the five starters. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are both excellent defenders and as a whole, the Hornets are ranked seventh in efficiency and fourth in DvP against shooting guards.

Bojan Bogdanovic and Cory Joseph should both play between 25-28 minutes and they are both priced under $4,500 on FanDuel and DraftKings. They are far from core plays, but nice lineup fillers if you are stuck and need players at their respective price points. Myles Turner only played ten minutes in his first game back from injury, but will play significantly more moving forward. I’d like to see how this frontcourt rotation is going to shake out before firing up Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis at their inflated price tags.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (5 of 12)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (FD)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Cory Joseph (DK), Bojan Bogdanovic (FD), Thaddeus Young (DK)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		216.0					Vegas Total		216.0
			Vegas Spread		-6.0					Vegas Spread		6.0
			Implied Team Total		111.0					Implied Team Total		105.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.3					Pace Projection +/-		-1.6
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	23	16	30	21	29		DvP	20	15	1	2	7
DRPM Rat.	30	2	15	23	9		DRPM Rat.	24	1	28	11	18

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are making some noise in the Western Conference. They have won six of their last ten games and would host a first-round playoff series if the regular season ended today. They have one of the more favorable draws of the slate tonight, as they take on a Hawks’ team that is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Minnesota has an implied total of 111 points, which is the highest overall and two points above their season average.

Jeff Teague hurt his ankle against the Nets and was held out of the fourth quarter, but is expected to play tonight. He says he feels “all right,” which isn’t exactly what we want to hear, but a matchup against Dennis Schroder and his former team should make him feel a little better. Schroder has one of the worst DRPM grades of any point guard in basketball and as a whole, the Hawks are ranked 23rd in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. A palatable price, a good matchup, and a revenge narrative is a pretty sweet trio for Teague.

Jimmy Butler missed four games with a knee injury but played 35 minutes in his first outing back in the lineup. He will not be on a minute restriction tonight and we can fire him up in all formats. Andrew Wiggins has been significantly better this season with Butler or Teague out of the lineup and there’s a chance that he’ll draw the defense of Kent Bazemore at times. Wiggins has been playing well recently, but he may end up being my fade of the night. I’ll take my chances with Teague and Butler in this one.

The Hawks’ frontcourt is always an easy target for opposing bigs, as they are ranked 21st or worse in DvP against both power forwards and centers. Atlanta also has the fifth worst rebounding differential in the NBA. Taj Gibson remains an elite cash game play, especially on FanDuel ($5,800) where we have to play two power forwards. I originally had Joel Embiid ranked higher than Karl-Anthony Towns, but he has been ruled out in the second half of a back-to-back. Towns is now my favorite overall target at center.

Notable Injuries

None

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (2 of 12)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jeff Teague (GPP), Taj Gibson (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (Cash), Taj Gibson (GPP), Andrew Wiggins

Atlanta Hawks

A quick glance at the player table below and you can see that the Hawks have not been playing their best basketball of late. Their starters and key bench players have seen dips in minutes and fantasy production over the last five games. That should change tonight though, as the Hawks are only 6-point underdogs in a matchup against the Wolves at home. Atlanta has an implied total of 105 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and 1.5 points above their season average.

Dennis Schroder draws a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague and the Wolves, who are ranked 20th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Schroder doesn’t offer a lot when it comes to peripheral statistics, but he has an elite true usage rate (30%) and his price has come down to playable levels across the industry. Kent Bazemore is the ultimate tournament play in DFS and his last two games are evidence of that — 39.4 fantasy points against the Hornets followed by 2.5 fantasy points against the Wizards. Baze’ing in cash is not for the risk-averse.

Taurean Prince is one of my favorite contrarian plays of the slate. His numbers over the last five games aren’t great, but he has played 31 minutes in back-to-back games and will likely avoid the defense of Jimmy Butler, who should be defending Bazemore. Prince is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and should fly under the radar in all formats. Ersan Ilyasova is only averaging 24 minutes over his last five games, but some of that has to do with the blowouts that the Hawks have been involved in. While Taj Gibson is a good defender, he does tend to struggle with stretch fours like Ilyasova. John Collins is worth a look off the bench, as he’s been one of the few bright spots for Atlanta recently.

Notable Injuries

DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (4 of 12)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Taurean Prince, Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP), Ersan Ilyasova (GPP), John Collins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Kent Bazemore (Cash), Ersan Ilyasova (Cash), John Collins (Cash), Marco Belinelli

Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		98.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-3.4					Pace Projection +/-		2.8
Projected Starters	Devin Booker	Troy Daniels	T.J. Warren	Marquese Chriss	Greg Monroe		Projected Starters	Tyreke Evans	Wayne Selden	Dillon Brooks	Jarell Martin	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	21	5	14	1		DvP	29	30	17	29	13
DRPM Rat.	10	8	14	16	15		DRPM Rat.	28	29	27	13	26

Phoenix Suns

If you are wondering why it took so long to get the Grind Down posted today, you can thank the injury reports for these two teams. Basically, half the Suns and half the Grizzlies are either out or questionable tonight, which makes it difficult to predict fantasy production. On paper, this is not a great matchup for Phoenix, but the injuries should open the door for a few different players that we can target tonight. The problem is that we don’t quite know who is going to play at this point of the day.

We’ll start with the guards for the Suns. Troy Daniels and Devin Booker are both listed as questionable. If Daniels is ruled out, we can bump up Isaiah Canaan, who has really played well off the bench this season. If Booker is ruled out, we can bump up Josh Jackson and Canaan, who would both see increases in playing time and usage. If both Daniels and Booker are ruled out, Jackson, Canaan, and T.J. Warren would all become borderline elite plays in all formats.

The frontcourt situation is just as messy as the backcourt. Tyson Chandler played 30 minutes last night and is a candidate to get the night off, while Alex Len and Marquese Chriss are both listed as questionable. Greg Monroe stands to benefit the most from Chandler and/or Len being out, while Dragan Bender would draw another start at power forward if Chriss is out. If Monroe starts at center, he would become an elite play on FanDuel ($4,500) and an excellent tournament play on DraftKings, even in a difficult matchup against Marc Gasol.

Notable Injuries

Tyson Chandler (Questionable – Potential Rest)
Alex Len (Questionable)
Marquese Chriss (Questionable)
Devin Booker (Questionable)
Troy Daniels (Questionable)

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (12 of 12)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.0 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)

Secondary Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies will also be short-handed tonight, although they only have one player whose status is still up in the air — Tyreke Evans. Memphis has already ruled out Chandler Parsons, JaMychal Green, and James Ennis, which makes my job infinitely easier. The Grizzlies have the best matchup on the board, as they take on a Suns’ team that is ranked fourth in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. Memphis has an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the fourth highest overall and seven points above their season average.

We should be anxiously awaiting the news of Evans, as he would be an elite play if active and he would open up a few elite plays if he is ruled out. The Suns are a prime matchup for point guards, ranking 30th in efficiency and 29th in DvP this season. If Evans is out, Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers would split the minutes at point guard and both become excellent plays in all formats. Wayne Selden should continue to benefit from the injuries on the wing, as he has played at least 26 minutes in three of his last four games.

Dillon Brooks is averaging 30 minutes and 22 fantasy points over his last five games. At his price point, I like his chances to reach value against the Suns. Jarell Martin only played 23 minutes against the Clippers the other night, but he was battling foul trouble. He played 32 and 35 minutes in the previous two games and Green has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Marc Gasol should be able to feast on both ends of the floor, especially if Tyson Chandler gets the night off. Gasol is my favorite point-per-dollar center on FanDuel ($7,900) in this six-game slate.

Notable Injuries

Chandler Parsons (Out)
JaMychal Green (Out)
James Ennis (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.4 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 7.3 (1 of 12)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jarell Martin, Marc Gasol, Mario Chalmers (FD) & Andrew Harrison (if Evans is out), Tyreke Evans (GPP – if active)

Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (Cash – if active), Dillon Brooks, Wayne Selden

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		103.0					Implied Team Total		107.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		2.9
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Malcolm Brogdon	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	6	4	7	26		DvP	12	22	18	15	14
DRPM Rat.	8	22	26	8	2		DRPM Rat.	1	20	1	23	3

Philadelphia 76ers

Immediately after I finished my write-up of the Sixers, Joel Embiid was ruled out. He obviously changes the landscape of this game and of the slate in general, so I will just start from scratch. While the Sixers’ implied total is significantly lower than their season average, Embiid’s absence opens the door for a number of play from Philadelphia. Ben Simmons has played well in each of his last three games, scoring 60, 44, and 42 fantasy points. He’ll be the focal point offensively tonight and his price is still under $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot should push for 30 minutes again tonight. While he’s not a core play by any means, he offers decent value at shooting guard. Robert Covington has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last five games and will likely draw the defensive assignment of Giannis Antetokounmpo. If he stays out of foul trouble, Covington could play 35+ minutes tonight. He may also see a boost in usage with Embiid out. As always, T.J. McConnell is worth a look in tournaments, especially if Jerryd Bayless is ruled out.

Dario Saric was originally one of my favorite fades of the slate, but now he’s one of my favorite plays of the slate. On the season, Saric averages 26 fantasy points with Embiid in the lineup and 35 fantasy points in the games that Embiid has missed. We can give Saric a boost when it comes to his minute projection and his usage. Amir Johnson and Richaun Holmes are intriguing value plays. They both average a fantasy point per minute this season. They are both viable in tournaments, but I’ll prefer the starter in cash games.

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Out)
Markelle Fultz (Out)
J.J. Redick (Out)
Jerryd Bayless (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.2 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (11 of 12)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes, Robert Covington (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (Cash), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, T.J. McConnell

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight. They are certainly catching the Sixers at an opportune time, as they are without Joel Embiid and playing their second game in as many nights. The Bucks are currently listed as 4-point favorites, but I expect that to go up now that Embiid has been ruled out. The Bucks have an implied total of 107 points, which is the third highest on the board and two points above their season average.

Eric Bledsoe draws a difficult matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked eighth in efficiency against point guards. Bledsoe would see a small boost in playing time if Malcolm Brogdon is ruled out, but it wouldn’t be a big enough bump to make him an elite play. Khris Middleton has averaged 42 fantasy points over his last five games and is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If we assume that Robert Covington will be on Giannis Antetokounmpo (pure speculation on my part), then Middleton would square off against the likes of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Dario Saric.

Antetokounmpo is one of my favorite players to watch. To see a player at his height to do the things that he does with the ball is incredible. He is averaging 62 fantasy points over his last five games and may see a small boost with Joel Embiid being out. A lot of Antetokounmpo’s production comes from the paint and he’ll no longer have an elite rim protector waiting for him. I was actually higher on John Henson before the Embiid news broke, as I thought the Bucks would potentially play him minute-for-minute with Embiid. He draws a slightly better matchup now, but I’m going to bump his minute projection down to the 25-27 range.

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Brogdon (Questionable)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.1 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (2 of 12)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.3 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon (if active), John Henson

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Miami Heat							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total		197.0					Vegas Total		197.0
			Vegas Spread		-2.0					Vegas Spread		2.0
			Implied Team Total		99.5					Implied Team Total		97.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.4					Pace Projection +/-		-2.6
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Maxi Kleber	Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	7	9	17	18		DvP	4	12	7	3	5
DRPM Rat.	29	27	29	7	18		DRPM Rat.	22	20	7	6	1

Miami Heat

There are some intriguing games in this slate, but this is one of my least favorites to target. We have two slow-paced teams that are both ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game this season. While it’s always nice to see a low spread, the total of 197 points is far from appealing. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 99.5 points, which is the third lowest on the board and one point lower than their season average.

With Tyler Johnson back in the lineup, I have no interest in Goran Dragic. The matchup is certainly an exploitable one, but we should no longer expect Dragic to play 36-38 minutes like he was for a small stretch. Wayne Ellington continues to see minutes in the mid-30s, but I do expect that number to drop a bit with Johnson back at full strength. Josh Richardson is priced up across the industry. While Harrison Barnes is a poor defender, I don’t love the idea of paying a premium for J-Rich in a pace-down spot on the road.

The most appealing plays from the Heat come from the frontcourt. James Johnson should see around 28 minutes against a Mavericks’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential. Hassan Whiteside is the ultimate DFS troll, but there is no doubting his upside when he’s engaged. This is a big “if,” but if he plays 28-30 minutes tonight, Whiteside will have a real shot at posting a 20-point, 20-rebound performance against this under-sized frontcourt. Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and Justise Winslow are all deep GPP fliers if you are playing multiple lineups in large-field tournaments.

Notable Injuries

None

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (7 of 12)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson, James Johnson

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks made a small charge a few weeks back, but have since lost seven of their last ten games. They are a team that’s not going anywhere fast, as they are headed for the lottery. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked third in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency this season. The Mavericks come into the game with the lowest implied total (97.5 points) and the third lowest projected point differential (-4.5).

I wouldn’t blame you for fading the Mavericks or even this entire game as a whole. Overall, there isn’t a lot of fantasy appeal in this one. With that said, J.J. Barea has been ruled out and Devin Harris is questionable, which could open up a ton of minutes for Dennis Smith. The Heat are ranked first in efficiency against point guards, but Smith has played surprisingly well in difficult matchups over the last few weeks. At the very least, he deserves consideration in tournaments. Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews should both play minutes in the mid-30s. While the matchup isn’t great, it’s something to keep in mind when building lineups. I treat my minutes like gold, or should I say Bitcoin.

Notable Injuries

J.J. Barea (Out)
Devin Harris (Questionable)

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.0 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 (10 of 12)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith (Cash), Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews

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