NBA Grind Down: Monday, October 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-31 02:01:07

Jump to Page 1 2

NOTE: The Grind Down update can be found in the CourtReport Live Blog

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		193.0					Vegas Total		193.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		94.8					Implied Team Total		98.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-2.8
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	2	30	2	20		DvP	1	17	5	11	6
DRPM	-2.16	-0.10	N/A	1.59	2.81		DRPM	-0.74	2.10	2.92	1.25	1.43

Anyone else ready to get back to the NBA Grind? I can’t seem to choose a wide receiver (Green, Allen, Baldwin, Doctson) or tight end (Henry, Reed) to save my life, so a nice four-day break with no NFL DFS is welcome. We have an interesting schedule in the NBA this week. We have three big slates (Monday, Wednesday, Friday) and two small slates (Tuesday, Thursday). As you all know, I am always trying to improve the NBA Grind Down, so if there is anything that you would like to see added that is within reason, feel free to leave a comment at the bottom of the page. Let’s dive into the slate!

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)

The Spurs have lost back-to-back games against the Magic and Pacers and have to play their fourth straight road game tonight against the Celtics. Being on the road that long is tough for any team, even the White Walkers (Google the Game of Zones if you don’t know what I’m referring to). They come into tonight’s game as 3.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 94.8 points. The Celtics have been very good defensively, ranking fourth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency this season.

After a nice start to the season, Dejounte Murray has only played 20 minutes in back-to-back games. I warned everyone that he was relying on great efficiency to reach value, which isn’t always sustainable. He has yet to play more than 28 minutes all season, which makes him a tough sell considering the fact that he takes up one of our coveted point guard spots. Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and Rudy Gay have fill in nicely for Kawhi Leonard, but all three are averaging between 24-29 minutes and 22-27 fantasy points per game. They are all viable secondary plays, but none stand out in a nine game slate.

The one and only player that is a borderline elite play from the Spurs is LaMarcus Aldridge. On the season, he has a 27% usage rate, he is averaging 1.23 FP/min, and he is averaging over 35 minutes per game. Until Kawhi Leonard comes back, we can continue to fire up Aldridge in all formats. The price seems like a lot to pay, but this version of Aldridge is closer to the one that we saw on the Blazers than it is to the one we saw on the Spurs last season. Pau Gasol has been efficient, but needs more than 24 minutes a night to pay off his salary consistently.

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 95.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Kyle Anderson

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Out)

After losing their first two games, the Celtics have reeled off four consecutive victories. They’ll look to extend the NBA’s longest winning streak tonight against the Spurs, who are trying to snap a streak of their own. Even though San Antonio gave up 114 points to the Magic, they are still ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Spurs also play at the seventh slowest pace, which leads to fewer possessions for their opponents. The Celtics’ implied total of 98.5 points is the fourth lowest of the 20 teams in action tonight.

The only defender in the Spurs starting lineup that didn’t have a DRPM of at least 1.25 last season (we are still waiting on this season’s data) was Dejounte Murray (-0.74). His back, Patty Mills, also had a negative DRPM (-1.06). While the Spurs are ranked first in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season, Irving is the Celtics’ best shot tonight. The issue is that he is priced at or above $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His elite usage puts him on my radar in tournaments, but there are a handful of point guards that I would rather target in tournaments.

Outside of Irving, I’m not interested in anyone else on the Celtics. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have played well in the first two weeks of the season, but their playing time has come down a bit with Marcus Smart back in the mix. Al Horford will have his hands full with LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a tough cover on one end and a good defender on the other. Aron Baynes is not the type of player that I want to chase fantasy production from, even though he has played at least 22 minutes in three straight games.

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.0 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.8 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Jaylen Brown (FD)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		216.0					Vegas Total		216.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		109.5					Implied Team Total		106.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Jordan Mickey
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	10	18	20	14		DvP	29	23	24	10	23
DRPM	-1.61	-0.06	-0.16	1.72	0.11		DRPM	-0.24	1.86	-2.73	2.10	-1.71

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

None

The Wolves really need to improve on the defensive end of the floor if they want to make the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference. In their first six games, they are giving up an average of 114.2 points, which is the fourth worst mark in the NBA. The Heat aren’t exactly world-beaters offensively, yet they still have an implied total of 106.5 points, but we’ll get to them in a bit. As far as the Wolves go, they draw an exploitable matchup against a Hassan Whiteside-less Heat team that is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.

Jeff Teague has dished out at least six assists in four straight games and he has scored at least 17 points in three of his last four. Perhaps he finally feels comfortable running Tom Thibodeau’s offense. While the Heat have been tough on point guards so far, I chalk that up to a small sample. Historically, Goran Dragic has not been a good defender. Teague is never owned in DFS and provides some appeal in tournaments. Jimmy Butler is coming off of his best game as a member of the Wolves, scoring 25 actual points on ten shot attempts. He has been more aggressive in every game so far this season, so there’s a good chance that his price in DFS will only go up from here.

Andrew Wiggins is a player that I try to avoid in cash games whenever possible. He relies heavily on points for his fantasy production (65% to be exact), which leads to volatility in his game logs. When his shot isn’t falling, it’s hard for him to reach value because he doesn’t add a lot in terms of peripheral statistics. Taj Gibson has been a decent value play thus far, but he’s the fifth option offensively when he’s on the floor.

Karl-Anthony Towns was one of my favorite plays in Friday’s slate and he didn’t disappoint. He finished the game against the Thunder with 67 fantasy points. He’s now scored at least 46 fantasy points in four straight meetings against Steven Adams, so lock that one in your memory for future use. Towns draws an even better matchup tonight against the likes of James Johnson, Jordan Mickey, and Kelly Olynyk. The Heat won’t be able to keep him off the glass or out of the paint. Even with the price hike, KAT deserves a look in all formats.

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (FD & FDRFT), Jeff Teague (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD & FDRFT)

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Wayne Ellington (Questionable)

The Heat have lost two in a row and are basically doggy-paddling to stay above water while they wait for Hassan Whiteside to return to the lineup. He is not expected to play tonight, but it sounds like he is hoping to be back on Wednesday. Despite having a defensive-minded coach and a number of good defenders in their lineup, the Wolves are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency this season. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 106.5 points, which is 3.5 points above their season average.

I’ve recommended Goran Dragic a few times already this season, but whenever I build my main lineup on each site, he never seems to find his way into it. That may change tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 29th against point guards this season. Dragic is as steady as they come, providing a high floor and a respectable ceiling. His price is below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which offers us a buy-low opportunity in a nice matchup.

Dion Waiters is a boom or bust fantasy option to begin with and tonight he’s going to lock horns with Jimmy Butler, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. I’d much rather take the discount and play Josh Richardson, who has more upside when it comes to peripheral stats. He should also draw the better matchup, as Andrew Wiggins finished last season with a DRPM of -2.73.

James Johnson is a player that I love to use when he’s priced below $6,000. For him to reach value at his current price point, he has to be super efficient in his 28-30 minutes. He would be a better play in a smaller slate. Tyler Johnson always seems to grade out as a nice value, but the production hasn’t been there this season and I don’t want to use one of my highly-coveted point guard spots on him. Kelly Olynyk is intriguing in tournaments. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of the four games that Whiteside has missed this season.

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 114.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 114.3 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson

Secondary Plays – James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk (GPP)

Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		210.5					Vegas Total		210.5
			Vegas Spread		-4.5					Vegas Spread		4.5
			Implied Team Total		107.5					Implied Team Total		103.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.3					Pace Projection +/-		-3.0
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic		Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	27	1	20	3	26		DvP	19	5	27	9	2
DRPM	0.01	-1.34	-1.35	1.66	-0.91		DRPM	-1.82	-2.44	-1.73	3.29	2.00

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

None

The Nuggets are not who we thought they were, and I’m not letting them off the hook (shoutout to Dennis Green). They are apparently more concerned with winning and defense than they are with scoring fantasy points. They have slowed their pace of play down considerably and are currently ranked 14th in points allowed per game. Their opponent, the Knicks, also play at a slow pace and are ranked tenth in points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned though, as the total for this game is set at 210.5 points. The Nuggets’ implied total of 107.5 points is 4.5 points above their season average.

Is anyone else frustrated by the Nuggets’ point guard situation? Right when we started to think Jamal Murray minutes were safe, he went out and put up a major dud against the Hawks and then bounced back with 30 fantasy points last night against the Nets. While I love the upside for both Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay, the two are better tournament plays than cash game options. As long as they are both healthy, Denver is going to ride the hot hand at point guard.

The only above-average defender in the Knicks’ lineup is Kristaps Porzingis, which takes Paul Millsap out of play in tonight’s big slate. The other three starters are all viable — Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, and Nikola Jokic. Harris doesn’t have a high usage rate, but should play 32-34 minutes, Chandler is priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and Jokic has scored at least 46 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Jokic should also be able to eat up the Knicks two centers, Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn. Will Barton is also worth mentioning. He consistently sees 28-30 minutes off the bench with a usage rate of 23%.

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray (GPP), Emmanuel Mudiay (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray (Cash), Emmanuel Mudiay (Cash), Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Will Barton (GPP)

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

None

Don’t look now — the Knicks have won two games in a row. Knicks’ fans should start making plans for the postseason. I thought you could use a laugh on a Monday. In all seriousness, this is not a team with playoff aspirations. They are trying to rebuild and to do that, they want to win games sporadically. Just enough to keep the fans coming to the games. Tonight they square off against a Nuggets’ team that has slowed their pace of play this season. Even though it doesn’t look like a great matchup on paper, New York has an implied total of 103 points, which is a few points higher than their season average.

Jarrett Jack has played 25 and 33 minutes in the last two games, scoring 26 and 23 fantasy points. His whole goal was to limit this team’s mistakes and clearly it has worked. Ramon Sessions appears to be out of the rotation, while the Knicks will continue to bring rookie Frank Ntilikina along slowly. Jack is a decent value if you are in a bind, but he’s not a core play by any means. Tim Hardaway has not been kind to us this season. I’ve played him time and time again waiting for a good shooting performance and it finally came on a day most people took off of NBA DFS. After scoring 56 fantasy points last night, THJ is going to be one of the highest owned plays on FanDuel ($4,300) tonight.

I’m not a fan of targeting centers against the Nuggets as long as Nikola Jokic is healthy, which takes Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn out of consideration. I’m typically looking to avoid power forwards against Paul Millsap, but it’s hard to ignore the usage that Kristaps Porzingis is getting in his first season without Carmelo Anthony. He currently has a 31% usage rate and is averaging 1.27 FP/min. When comparing the two similarly-priced power forwards, I prefer LaMarcus Aldridge in cash games and Porzingis in tournaments.

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.2 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway (FD), Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (DK & FDRFT), Jarrett Jack, Kristaps Porzingis (Cash)

Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		194.5					Vegas Total		194.5
			Vegas Spread		6.0					Vegas Spread		-6.0
			Implied Team Total		94.3					Implied Team Total		100.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-4.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.1
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Jeremy Lamb	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Mike Conley	Andrew Harrison	James Ennis	Brandan Wright	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	11	2	7	29		DvP	12	22	21	6	25
DRPM	-0.50	0.17	1.40	0.32	0.84		DRPM	-1.14	-0.88	2.10	-0.13	2.92

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Frank Kaminsky (Questionable)

Whenever we have a large NBA slate, there are always a couple of games that we can gloss over. Judging by the six point spread and the 194.5-point total, this could be one of them. The Hornets draw a truly difficult matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked 29th in pace of play and third in points allowed per game. With this game being played in Memphis, the Grizzlies should be able to control the tempo and turn this into a half-court battle. The Hornets have an implied total of only 94.3 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and eight points below their season average.

Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb are both coming off of big outings against the Magic, but this is the second half of a back-to-back and they are faced with a much tougher matchup. At their price points, I have no interest in the Hornets’ backcourt duo. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can be avoided until he sees minutes in the upper 20s or lower 30s. Marvin Williams could make a decent value play on DraftKings ($3,900) if Frank Kaminsky (illness) is ruled out. Dwight Howard is worth a look in tournaments. This is the most engaged we have seen him on a basketball floor in the last five years. He has at least 15 rebounds in five of his first six games this season and the Grizzlies are currently ranked 23rd in rebounding differential.

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP), Marvin Williams (if Kaminsky is out)

Memphis Grizzlies

Notable Injuries

None

All the talk about the Grizzlies playing at a faster pace this season can be thrown out the window. Through their first six games, they are ranked 29th in pace of play and are 5-1 in the standings. I highly doubt we see coach David Fizdale change their defensive-minded philosophy anytime soon. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential this season. The Grizzlies implied total of 100.3 points is the sixth lowest of the slate.

Naturally, point guards have a higher usage rate on average than the other positions on the floor because they are the ones initiating the offense. Mike Conley has not shot the ball well this season, but his 27% true usage rate sticks out like a sore thumb. It’s only a matter of time before the efficiency starts to follow and when it does, Conley will easily pay off his price tag. He’s not a core play for me tonight, but I’m never afraid to target point guards against Kemba Walker and the Hornets.

There are too many bodies splitting minutes on the wing for me to feel good about targeting any of them in cash games. Tyreke Evans has shown a high ceiling off the bench, but he is no longer priced in the low $4,000 range on FanDuel and DraftKings. James Ennis plays a lot of minutes, but how much upside does a player with a 10% usage rate really have? Outside of Conley, Marc Gasol is the only other Grizzlies’ player on my radar. He remains too cheap on DraftKings ($7,800) and has been a focal point of this offense (26% usage rate). We’ve also seen his minutes come up this season, averaging nearly 35 per game. Dwight Howard can be a good defender when motivated, but that hasn’t shown up in the DvP rankings. The Hornets are currently ranked 25th against centers.

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Marc Gasol (DK)

Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol (FD & FDRFT), Mike Conley

Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		106.0					Implied Team Total		112.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.9					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	James Harden	Eric Gordon	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	17	19	14	4	15		DvP	14	29	4	5	28
DRPM	-1.81	-0.13	1.54	-0.16	1.25		DRPM	N/A	-0.47	-1.80	4.38	2.30

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Markelle Fultz (Out)
J.J. Redick (Questionable)

Perhaps it’s the fanboy in me, but it seems like the Sixers have won more than two games this season. If we graded each team on excitement and watchability, they’d be near the top of the standings. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the Rockets in a potential shootout. Philadelphia is getting plenty of respect from Vegas, as they are only 6.5-point underdogs. They currently have an implied total of 106 points, which is nearly four points above their season average.

Markelle Fultz is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, which leaves a lot of minutes for Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell. Of the two, McConnell is the only one that truly plays point guard, as Bayless is more of an off-guard when he’s on the floor with Ben Simmons. McConnell has been tremendous in his last two games, scoring 42 and 32 fantasy points. I’d like to say that it’s an aberration, but we saw him come in and produce on a number of occasions last season. If he continues to see 28-30 minutes a game, he’s going to be viable in DFS as long as he’s priced under $5,000.

You are going to hear this a lot today, “I love Ben Simmons, but I can’t pay over $9,000 for him.” Does it feel weird paying that much for a rookie? Absolutely, but a week ago it felt weird paying $8,000 for him. All I see is a starting point guard against the Rockets that is averaging 44 fantasy points per game. Fade him if you must, but I will be loading up on him in tournaments. Robert Covington had a big game against the Rockets in their first meeting this season, but he’s as volatile as they come. He relies on three pointers, steals, and blocks for his fantasy production, which leads to a lot of big games and a lot of quiet games. As usual, I will only be using him in tournaments because I don’t have the stomach for it in a cash game setting.

Joel Embiid is amazing, both on and off the court. He was Tweeting at Game 5 of the World Series late last night. Staying up that late and having that much adrenaline flow through you could affect the performance of lesser man, but not of the true GOAT. He currently owns a 28% usage rate and is averaging 1.36 FP/min. He should continue to dominate on both ends of the floor. Even though the price is steep for a player that averages 27.5 minutes per game, he has one of the highest floors in DFS. He only played 23 minutes (due to foul trouble) against the Rockets in their first meeting and he still walked away with 39 fantasy points.

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (GPP), Joel Embiid (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Joel Embiid (GPP), T.J. McConnell, Robert Covington (GPP)

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Eric Gordon (Probable)
Nene Hilario (Questionable)

The Rockets have struggled to stay healthy this season. They’ve been without Chris Paul since the first game of the year and a few of their other players have missed some time. Paul is reportedly making progress, but is not expected to return for a couple of weeks. The Rockets draw a decent matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 21st in points allowed per game this season. Houston scored 105 points in their first meeting against Philadelphia and they come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 112.5 points.

I expected Ben Simmons to be good, but I didn’t expect him to average nearly as many fantasy points as James Harden through the first six games. I haven’t been able to put my finger on why Harden has struggled thus far. He hasn’t shot the ball great, but his true shooting percentage isn’t that much lower than it was last year. The one major difference that I see is his inability to get to the line. After averaging at least ten free throw attempts in each of the last three seasons, he is only averaging 6.4 this season. I do expect him to breakout soon (and perhaps tonight), but he’ll get the Robert Covington treatment and he’ll have to deal with Joel Embiid at the rim. Harden is viable in all formats, but he’s not the lock and load play that he was last season.

Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon are both expected to play tonight, which will send Luc Richard Mbah a Moute back to the bench. Gordon makes an excellent tournament play. Nobody will want to pay that much for a player coming off of an injury, but he draws an excellent matchup against the likes of J.J. Redick and Jerryd Bayless and he currently sports a 29% usage rate on the season. Ariza is fine if you need a small forward at his price point, but his usage rate is below 10% on the season. This is the time to hop off the Ryan Anderson train. His price is up, his minutes could come down with Ariza and Gordon both active, and we’ve seen him struggle with his shot in this building.

In last week’s battle against Joel Embiid, Clint Capela went nuclear with 16 points, 20 rebounds, and four blocks. He followed up that game with two duds against the Hornets and Grizzlies. I’ll admit that I was wrong about Capela in that first matchup, but I’m still hesitant to play him tonight unless Nene Hilario is ruled out. For now, I see Capela as a DraftKings ($6,700) only play, as his price on FanDuel ($7,500) is a bit too rich for my blood.

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden (Cash)

Secondary Plays – James Harden (GPP), Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon (GPP), Clint Capela (DK)

Jump to Page 1 2