NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 20th

by Travis Mangone (Mangone) Last Updated 2018-01-21 03:21:46

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers – 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		219.0					Vegas Total		219.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		107.8					Implied Team Total		111.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.7
Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams		Projected Starters	Isaiah Thomas	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	21	22	26	21	23		DvP	2	13	3	7	4
DRPM Rat.	22	23	19	27	23		DRPM Rat.	3	1	6	24	23

Oklahoma City Thunder

Before I get into the analysis of these first two games I want to stress that this is a two-game slate. Since it is a two-game slate don’t forget that we must make some tough decisions and fade some good plays, so I can’t list everyone.

The Cavs are ranked in the bottom ten against every position. They are ranked 24th in points allowed per game, 28th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding differential. This team allows a ton of fantasy points and can’t play a lick of defense, so if there was any team I would want to load up on it would be the Thunder.

Russell Westbrook is the top option to pay for on this two-game slate. The Cavs can’t defend opposing point guards and Westbrook has been a different breed taking over this team and dominating like last year.

The Cavs don’t really have an answer for a guy like Steven Adams down low. I expect him to feast on Kevin Love and be a nightmare on the boards. Adams has a fair price around the industry and I think he is a good play on this slate. He is probably the best overall center option to consider when you think about price, matchup and overall talent of the center options.

If you can afford Westbrook or Lebron and need a cheaper option at small forward, feel free to pivot down to Paul George. I typically don’t like taking PG13 but in this matchup, I think he can thrive and it’s a two-game slate. Especially on a site like FanDuel where you need to play two small forwards. Last real option to consider on the Thunder is Carmelo Anthony. I would assume after Anthony’s last two games and it only being a two-game slate that he would have some high ownership. Instead of playing a point dependent option on a two-game slate, it’s a sharp fade when we can pivot to other options on DraftKings. It is a tougher fade on FanDuel where you must play two power forwards, but a high owned Melo is always a good fade when trying to take down a big tournament and I already like three other Thunder options more.

Notable Injuries None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (15 of 30)

table(tbl data-table). |^. |_. Player |_=. FD Salary |_=. DK Salary |_=. FDRFT Salary |_=. FP/Game |_=. L5 +/- |_=. Minutes |_=. L5 +/- |_=. FP/Min |_=. True Usage |_=. EFF|_=. DVP|_=. DRPM| |-. |Russell Westbrook|=. $11,700 |=. $11,800 |=. |=. 53.3 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.6 |=. 35.9 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -2.2 |=. 1.48 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 34.9% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 21 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 21 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 22 | |Andre Roberson|=. $4,800 |=. $3,700 |=. |=. 17.6 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 6.2 |=. 26.6 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -9.5 |=. 0.66 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 8.2% |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 23 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 22 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 23 | |Paul George|=. $7,900 |=. $7,300 |=. |=. 37.0 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -7.4 |=. 36.5 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -2.0 |=. 1.01 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 22.6% |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 26 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 26 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 19 | |Carmelo Anthony|=. $6,500 |=. $6,400 |=. |=. 29.5 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -1.2 |=. 32.7 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -1.3 |=. 0.90 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 22.1% |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 27 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 21 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 27 | |Steven Adams|=. $7,000 |=. $6,600 |=. |=. 31.0 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 0.8 |=. 32.0 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -1.0 |=. 0.97 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 14.4% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 15 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 23 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 23 |
so

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Paul George

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are not in a good spot going up against a Thunder team that’s ranked in the top ten at defending every position but opposing shooting guards. Oklahoma City is ranked third in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. This is not a team that I like to target in DFS and with their recent struggles I don’t think I will be all over the Cavs. There are some options that I want to play though, so let’s dive right in.

I want to start by saying if you have the money for LeBron James play him. If you must pick between him or Westbrook give me Westbrook every time in this situation. LeBron is always in play, but on a two-game slate I like fading him for Paul George if I’m not leaving tons of money on the table. Kevin Love is another guy that has a ton of upside, but I already like Adams more and another center in the next game. Love also has a tough matchup and I think he is a good fade.

If I get any Cavs exposure on this slate I like getting my exposure through Isaiah Thomas. His minutes restriction recently got lifted and is priced too cheap around the industry. If his shot is falling, he will pay off this price tag and be one of the better plays on this slate. IT2 is still working his way into this offense and he will only continue to get better and better. At this price, I would do my best to get him in your lineups. If you force me to take one bench option, it would be Jeff Green mainly for the revenge narrative and the upside that he has. He also helps me roster a power forward position that is very weak on this slate.

Notable Injuries None

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas

Secondary Plays – LeBron James (FanDuel only) and Jeff Green

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks – 5:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		215.0					Vegas Total		215.0
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		106.5					Implied Team Total		108.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.4
Projected Starters	Jerian Grant	Zach LaVine	Justin Holiday	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	19	30	19	27		DvP	26	29	14	18	9
DRPM Rat.	30	2	20	23	10		DRPM Rat.	24	17	10	26	23

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls get a matchup against a Hawks team that is not very good. Lucky for us the Bulls have some value and are cheap enough where we might be able to jam in LBJ and RWB. The Hawks are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game, 25th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. The Bulls are playing at a fast pace and in this type of matchup, I expect a lot of fantasy points here.

Kris Dunn will not play in this game which will allow us to get some decent value at the guard position. Jerian Grant is the projected starter and will be an elite value point guard on this slate. The Hawks struggle against most positions and are allowing the 17th most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Grant won’t see a massive boost in usage as a starter, but with his projected minutes and price he is a great play on this two-game slate. Zach Lavine is another option that is too cheap as a guard. He was on a 20-minute restriction and is priced for that currently. He has been moved up to a 24-minute restriction and should be another elite guard play. He has seen a nice amount of usage since returning as well and at that price, he should not only be safe but have some upside. Justin Holiday is a little priced up but could certainly have a good game at this price tag. He will be a secondary option for me only on this slate.

The Bulls forward roulette continues and this is something we will have to try and get right on this slate. The Hawks struggle a ton against opposing forwards, so instead of picking which one I will take, I think I am just going to fade Carmelo Anthony and play both Mirotic and Markkanen. Many people won’t play both and I think that could be a contrarian approach on this slate. They are not my favorite plays on the slate, so I am going to list them as secondary plays. If you need a cheap center to make everything work Robin Lopez makes sense because simply they are playing the Hawks and they are bad at defending everyone. It’s not a rousing endorsement, but if you force me to play a cheap center on this slate he is your guy.

Notable Injuries Kris Dunn (out)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.0 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jerian Grant (DraftKings) and Zach Lavine

Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen and Nikola Mirotic

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are starting to get healthier, but that doesn’t mean they are going to start playing better basketball. They get a matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game, 26th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in rebounding differential. The Bulls are also playing at a much faster pace in the last month and despite how bad the Hawks are, this is a two-game slate and we must consider some of them.

There are only two Hawks that I am going to probably roster on this slate. Dennis Schroder is the first because he has the highest usage on the team and will draw Jerian Grant defense. The only problem is that I already like other point guards on this slate a ton, so I don’t think I will have a ton of exposure to Schroder here. I will still list him as a secondary play though because I do think he is a good play. Taurean Prince has been struggling a ton since his dislocated finger and I will continue to fade until he shows me he is back to his old self and the price is low. Since he is struggling that has forced Kent Bazemore and Marco Belinelli to pick up the slack for him. I think Bazemore has a ton of upside in this matchup and is an elite play for me on the Hawks. If you can’t afford him I don’t hate looking to Belinelli for cheap. He can be a value play that helps you barely fit in a Russell Westbrook and make everything work. If that is the case I like him as a secondary play on this two-game slate.

Notable Injuries None

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (6 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kent Bazemore

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder and Marco Belinelli

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		205.0					Vegas Total		205.0
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		104.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.3					Pace Projection +/-		-2.5
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	3	29	15	5		DvP	4	11	7	6	6
DRPM Rat.	12	7	7	19	5		DRPM Rat.	23	20	8	4	1

Miami Heat

The Heat come into this game playing their third game in four nights and off the second half of a back to back. If you think the Heat should win easy because their opponent is Charlotte, I would think twice about that because they are coming off a road loss to the Nets. The Heat are also surprisingly ranked the fourth best team in the Eastern Conference despite all the injuries they have had. This game is a 205-team total which seems low going up against the 9th ranked team in pace. I don’t love targeting teams with such low totals, but the current injury situation in Miami leads me to some interest.

Hassan Whiteside is coming off back to back 50 fantasy point games along with back to back games with 30 or more minutes. This is the Whiteside we have been waiting for, but now Whiteside gets a tough matchup against the second-ranked team at defending Centers. Normally I would feel good about Whiteside because his minutes seem secure against a Center like Howard as he should be needed all game long. I do worry that on a third in four nights off a back to back on the road there could be some reasons to be concerned. We do like to play Whiteside though when he is in a rhythm and getting the minutes, it’s just unfortunate that the matchup is tough. I think if you like Whiteside you can go ahead and play him, but he would not be an elite play for me. James Johnson is going to be in play again despite his poor performance at high ownership yesterday. He should still have some decent ball handling responsibilities and that is hard to find from a cheap power forward. Johnson is another secondary play for me on this slate.

Josh Richardson is coming off some nice games recently, but I really don’t love that price on him. His minutes are secure and makes a nice safe cash game play. Small forwards against the Hornets are the best in the league, so Richardson is someone that looks to be in a perfect spot, but I do worry about his price being inflated. Wayne Ellington is another guard that will see a pile of minutes for cheap and if he fits your construction I wouldn’t hate it. Goran Dragic is the last option that I really want to get exposure to here. With Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters out, this has led to a ton of usage for Dragic and against a bottom ten team at defending point guards, we must like Dragic. I think he is more of a cash game play at this price, but he is in play in tournaments as well. Keep in mind again this is a second half of a back to back and a third in four nights for the Heat, so I worry about some of the jump shooters and the coach could tinker with minutes.

Notable Injuries Tyler Johnson and Rodney Mcgruder (out)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 101.2 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are three games out of the playoff race but are still talking about trading their star player Kemba Walker to ship off bad contracts that they have signed. This team is a mess, but they are running into a Heat team that just lost to the Brooklyn Nets. Charlotte will have a tough task against a good defensive team that plays at a slow pace, but with all the injuries in Miami, the Hornets are considered 4.5-point favorites.

I don’t like playing point guards against the Heat because they play good team defense historically against the position. This year they are ranked third and even though Kemba Walker is one of their best players at his price around the industry I will likely fade. I do think on DraftKings at $7300 it is quite tempting, but there are other point guards we can play. The Heat are great at defending most positions, so there are not many matchups that we are going to love here for Charlotte. Nicolas Batum, Mike Kidd-Gilchrist, and all the other Hornets players have no interest for me on this slate. The one that sparks my interest the most is Dwight Howard and only on DraftKings for $7,700. His price is too high on FanDuel, but on DraftKings I think he is playable. The matchup is not great, but I would assume both coaches roll out their big men for 28-32 minutes and at this price if Dwight gets that kind of run he can have a ceiling game.

Notable Injuries Cody Zeller (out)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (DraftKings only)

Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies							New Orleans Pelicans
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		-3.4
Projected Starters	Tyreke Evans	Andrew Harrison	Dillon Brooks	JaMychal Green	Marc Gasol		Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	25	25	27	10		DvP	10	16	6	14	1
DRPM Rat.	27	5	29	2	6		DRPM Rat.	11	12	16	28	16

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzles are still banged up and are going to be a team we want to look at especially against a Pelicans team that struggles defensively. The Pelicans are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 23rd in defensive efficiency, 18th in rebounding differential and 6th fastest pace in the league. The Pelicans are typically a team that I like to target, but for some reason looking at the Grizzles and their prices around the industry, I am having trouble getting behind a lot of plays here.

Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans are the focal points of the offense right now and are going to be two options we need to give a hard look at. Gasol is going to have his hands full on the offensive and defensive end against DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis. I don’t think Gasol is a good play here coming off an illness and after only playing 27 minutes only. That is well above is season average and the illness could be bothering or it could have been because of the blow out against the Kings. Either way, I don’t think this matchup sets up great for Gasol and I think there are other Centers that I prefer to target. Tyreke Evans was not so vengeful last night against his former team, but maybe he is saving that revenge for tonight against his other former team, the New Orleans Pelicans. Revenge or not this is a good matchup against the Pelicans. The problem for Evans is the price around the industry is way too priced up for me right now. I think he is a fine play and he can flash upside, but for me, I will pass on Evans and spend my money elsewhere. I still think this matchup is really good and he could do really well here, so I will list him as an elite play. The pace and matchup just are too good for him, but I wanted to make it clear I don’t think I will pay up for him unless a ton of value opens up. If Parsons and Ennis are both out again, we can take a strong look at Dillion Brooks as a value option. I am not expecting Brooks to go for 28 or more again like he has in his last three games, but hear me out. We like to roster wings against the Pelicans and Brooks has played 27 or more minutes in his last four games, so he is clearly on a hot streak. When a player like this gets going they are confident and the coach sees that. I think if Parsons and Ennis sit the minutes are safe and he becomes a secondary value play.

Notable Injuries Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons (out) and James Ennis (questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 14)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 14)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tyreke Evans

Secondary Plays – Dillon Brooks

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans will host the Memphis Grizzles in a game that is not a friendly fantasy environment. I hate targeting teams playing the Grizzles and that is because of their pace, which is the ranked last in the league. Not only that but the Grizzles are ranked 7th in points allowed per game and I just don’t like to target many players against Memphis. This is not a great game for fantasy points and despite having Cousins and Davis, I am not excited to roster many Pelicans.

DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis are both matchup proof and can go off on any slate. That’s not a hot take but figured I needed to mention that before I go into the analysis and discuss my concern with paying up for these two. DeMarcus Cousins is the most expensive player on the slate, going up against a team that is ranked first in defending his position and playing against the slowest paced teams in the league. I understand Cousins is matchup proof but for those reasons above I am out on DeMarcus Cousins tonight. If you want to play one of these big men I would lean Davis, but I think you can spend your money elsewhere. I would go Davis over Cousins for the simple fact that a lot of production could be funneled into Davis and besides the Hawks game, he has been flashing huge upside.

Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday and E’twaun Moore are other starters that get talked about as rosterable options, but this matchup is just not a good one. I think there are way more appealing teams to target on this slate and the Pelicans are one that I feel good about fading.

Notable Injuries Solomon Hill, Tony Allen and Alexis Ajinca (out)

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 110.8 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 14)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.0 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (tournaments only)

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		109.8
			Pace Projection +/-		3.7					Pace Projection +/-		-1.7
Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Matthew Dellavedova	Khris Middleton	Tony Snell	John Henson		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	26	16	17	24		DvP	13	8	2	9	26
DRPM Rat.	1	27	1	26	2		DRPM Rat.	10	28	27	27	1

Milwaukee Bucks

Reasons I wanted to not get a ton of exposure to the last game are because this is one of the better games to target on this slate. The Bucks get a matchup against a Sixers team that are ranked 2nd in pace and will be without their star player Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis averages 52.8 fantasy points per game and plays 37.3 minutes. That’s a lot of minutes and production to go around and you better believe that I will be getting a ton of exposure to Milwaukee players on this slate.

Two elite plays for me on this slate will be Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton. I expect these two to be guys that I just auto play in my cash games and even tournaments. We knew this news yesterday before locking that Giannis and Brogdon would be out and I expected an increase in prices from certain Bucks players but that was not the case. The Sixers have struggled against guards throughout the year, which just makes Middleton and Bledsoe two of my favorite plays on this slate. Another play who I think is a great value on this slate would be Tony Snell. Again, this is Tony Snell, but he is very cheap and should get a healthy dose of minutes with Brogdon and Giannis out. Snell could help fit in some of the studs that you want to pay up for on this slate and is a good key to unlocking those. He also has upside at this price and I think is a strong play. John Henson should have his hands full with Embiid all game, but I don’t think he benefits a ton from Giannis being out. He could benefit a little, but he is not a lock like the other options that I have discussed. He is cheap and could find his way there, but I just prefer the other Bucks I discussed in this spot. The last Bucks player I will mention is Matthew Dellavedova. I can’t roster every Bucks player, so I won’t play him, but if you feel like your lacking Bucks exposure and need a cheap option you can throw him in. I already love Bledsoe and likely paying up for one of the other point guards in the next game.

Notable Injuries Giannis Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon (out)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton and Tony Snell

Secondary Plays – John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers go into this game as seven-point home favorites against a shorthanded Bucks team that will be without Giannis and Brogdon. The Sixers are expected by Vegas score 110 points and need to be a team that we give a strong look at in DFS.

I expect Joel Embiid to be a center that many of us consider rostering on this slate. The question won’t be is he a good play, but it will be do we have the money to make it work? I think on FanDuel it will be a lot easier, but on DraftKings it will be tougher. Either way, we love to target the Bucks with opposing centers because they are ranked 26th against them. It has been well known that they struggle there and Embiid is going to be an elite option on this slate. We can continue this trend and look at someone like Dario Saric as another good option to roster on this slate. Saric may not be a center, but he is a power forward and I could see him thriving here. At $6,200 on DraftKings he is not the greatest roster, but on FanDuel for only $5,500 I think he is an elite play. Redick’s injury has opened the need for a three-point threat and Saric can easily help in that department. The price on FanDuel is just too cheap and I expect him to have a solid floor with a ton of upside at that price.

Ben Simmons has been bad recently and his price is still too much for my liking. Sure, on any night he could have one of those massive upside games, but until he proves he is back to his old self or his price goes down more I will not be rostering him. Another Sixers player that is cheap that I want to fade is Robert Covington. His price is appealing around the industry, but in his last 105 minutes, he only has 47.75 fantasy points. That is terrible and honestly, I am so scared to roster him in my cash games, but that price is way too cheap on Covington. If you are willing to embrace the risk, there is a ton of upside at this price and I think Covington could be an interesting tournament option. Redick’s injury will help some of these guards out and the main option to consider would be TJ McConnell. McConnell is the guard that picks up the minutes for Redick late in the game and I expect him to get some extra run. When Redick got hurt McConnell came in and closed out the game and just little things like that show that the coach has enough trust to give him the extra guard run. At his price, if you need a cheap guard I like McConnell here as a secondary option.

Notable Injuries JJ Redick, Jerryd Bayless

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.1 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (4 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 ( of 14)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid and Dario Saric (prefer on FanDuel)

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell

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