NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 27th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons – 5:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Langston Galloway | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 10 | 29 | 12 | 11 | DvP | 5 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 23 | 11 | 24 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 22 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder will be traveling to Detroit and come into this game as road favorites in a game with a 207 total. This is one of the slower paced games on the slate and is not part of the main slate. We don’t have to worry a ton about rostering many of these players, but we will still break down the game. The Pistons have been good on the defensive end this year as they are currently ranked 5th in points allowed per game and 7th in defensive efficiency. This is not a game I am in love with, but there are some plays that I think we should consider.
If you have enough money for Russell Westbrook he is always in play. I know this is not the best matchup going up against the 7th ranked team against opposing point guards, but it’s Russell Westbrook. I think if you are playing the all-day slate you can fade him for other point guard options, but if you end up having value at most other positions and can pay up for Westbrook I won’t tell you not to. My favorite spot to attack the Pistons at is the Small Forward position. Detroit ranks 29th against them which makes me have a lot of interest in Paul George. I took a poll the other day when Paul George was playing bad and it asked Do you hate playing Paul George in DFS?? I know he didn’t have the best game, but it came back 85% yes and 15% no. It always feels like he underperforms for his price, but if there is any matchup he could have a big game in, this is a good one. Carmelo Anthony is an easy fade for me because he is priced up and is too points dependent. The last option to consider on the Thunder is Steven Adams. There are already enough centers on this slate that I don’t think this is the right price, matchup or slate to utilize him
Notable Injuries None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,000 | 53.5 | -3.2 | 35.8 | -2.0 | 1.49 | 35.0% | 19 | 7 | 2 | ||
| Andre Roberson | $4,500 | 17.8 | 2.5 | 26.8 | -1.6 | 0.66 | 8.1% | 3 | 10 | 23 | ||
| Paul George | $8,200 | 37.4 | -0.9 | 36.4 | -2.2 | 1.03 | 22.8% | 23 | 29 | 11 | ||
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,500 | 29.8 | 3.4 | 32.6 | -1.9 | 0.91 | 22.1% | 15 | 12 | 24 | ||
| Steven Adams | $7,300 | 30.9 | 6.4 | 32.0 | -1.4 | 0.97 | 14.5% | 14 | 11 | 6 | ||
| Jerami Grant | $3,700 | 16.0 | -3.7 | 20.5 | -1.5 | 0.78 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays -Paul George
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook
Detroit Pistons
The Thunder are seriously one of the worst teams to roster players against in DFS. The Thunder are starting to click and looking like a good basketball team. The Thunder are ranked 4th in points allowed per game, 5th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in rebounding differential and 20th in pace. To make things worse they are ranked in the top seven at defending every position on the floor except shooting guard, which they are ranked 14th at defending. This is not a team that I want to target and with the Pistons being on the all-day slate I really think it’s a good idea to fade them in this spot. Andre Drummond showed the other day against Rudy Gobert that he can have big games almost any time, but I don’t think we need to pay up for him on this slate. The one interesting thing to note from this game is that if you need value Langston Galloway is an interesting option. He started the last game and has played more than 20 minutes in three of his last four games. I don’t love the matchup, but I think he could be a value that we consider going forward.
Notable Injuries Reggie Jackson (out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langston Galloway | $3,800 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 0.77 | 18.0% | 9 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Avery Bradley | $5,000 | 23.2 | -5.1 | 31.8 | 1.7 | 0.73 | 21.2% | 8 | 14 | 1 | ||
| Stanley Johnson | $3,800 | 17.5 | 1.3 | 27.4 | -1.7 | 0.64 | 13.5% | 7 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Tobias Harris | $6,700 | 29.0 | -0.3 | 32.7 | 0.1 | 0.89 | 21.3% | 16 | 7 | 24 | ||
| Andre Drummond | $10,800 | 44.8 | 8.7 | 33.1 | 2.9 | 1.35 | 18.5% | 2 | 2 | 22 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Domantas Sabonis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 29 | DvP | 30 | 27 | 20 | 30 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 27 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 27 | 30 | 26 | 26 | |
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are not a good basketball team, but they are in a good game for DFS today. They come into this game as 6-point road underdogs in a game with a 213 total. The Pacers have slowed their pace down, moving to 18th in the league but are still ranked towards the top in points allowed per game at 11th. The Magic are still banged up and struggling, as they currently have the second-worst record in the NBA. That doesn’t mean there won’t be players to target though in DFS, so let’s dive in and see who we can roster on Orlando tonight.
Someone who pops off as a good play for me early in the day is Evan Fournier. The matchup on paper doesn’t look great, but I like his price, usage and minutes. The only thing that could get in the way of me rostering Fournier is that I like some other shooting guards more. I think he is a good play and likely will get my exposure over on Draftkings to him. I think you can include Fournier in a game stack and if I did that I would also include Aaron Gordon. He is expensive around the industry and I understand if people shy away. I think we will have enough money to spend on this slate where we can pay up for him. He is a risky play and I think I prefer him more in tournaments. Bismack Biyombo is another player that pops for me today at his current price. The Pacers are one of my favorite teams to target with centers and at his current price, he has a nice floor and a high ceiling. The Pacers are ranked 29th against opposing Centers and I think Biyombo is an elite play on this slate. Johnathon Simmons and Elfrid Payton are the last two guys I want to mention on the Orlando side of the ball. I think they simply just go overlooked on this slate because I like other plays at their positions or in a similar price range. Elfrid Payton is expensive and always has upside, but this is not the spot for me and I think is a great fade. Simmons is cheap… I get it, but I will look to other plays like Jaylen Brown.
Notable Injuries Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic (out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.1 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,400 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 30.3 | 6.1 | 29.3 | 2.9 | 1.03 | 21.5% | 4 | 11 | 15 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,200 | $6,300 | $12,900 | 28.0 | 1.9 | 32.8 | 1.8 | 0.85 | 20.8% | 15 | 6 | 1 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 22.6 | 0.7 | 28.9 | 3.3 | 0.78 | 19.7% | 4 | 13 | 29 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,800 | $7,800 | $14,900 | 34.3 | -2.6 | 33.8 | 3.3 | 1.02 | 20.9% | 20 | 18 | 11 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $6,000 | $6,300 | $13,300 | 17.2 | 15.0 | 18.6 | 8.8 | 0.92 | 10.8% | 28 | 29 | 27 |
| D.J. Augustin | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 15.9 | 1.2 | 19.9 | -3.7 | 0.80 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.6 | 0.3 | 17.3 | 0.9 | 0.78 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bismack Biyombo
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight going up against he Orlando Magic. The Magic are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 27th in defensive efficiency, 29th in rebounding differential and 7th in pace. I love targeting Orlando in DFS and at their current prices, I will be sure to get exposure to a lot of the Pacers on this slate. There is a slight chance Myles Turner returns for this game, but I am going to do the analysis under the assumption that he is still out. Even if he plays, I would expect him on a minute’s restriction and it wouldn’t make him someone I consider unless I know he is a full go.
I am going to sound annoying when I say this, but WE DO NOT FADE VICTOR OLADIPO IN REVENGE GAMES. I will say it one more time DON’T FADE VICTOR OLADIPO IN A REVENGE GAME. Take a stroll with me down narrative street and let’s check out how he is done in the past against Orlando. In his two games against Orlando, Oladipo is averaging 59.1 DraftKings points per game. Some will argue the sample size is too small or the price is too expensive. I watched this guy rush back from injury just to play this game and he went bananas. The Magic are ranked 30th against opposing point guards and 27th against shooting guards which are the two positions Oladipo will be playing tonight. This is just too juicy of a spot for me to pass up on. The only way I could see fading Oladipo is if good shooting guard value pops up, but I would make sure in tournaments to get exposure to Oladipo. If you want to attack the Magic with another guard and can’t afford Oladipo I love going Darren Collison for cheap. He is coming off a 50-point game and I expect him to be popular today. I think he is a great value going up against the worst defensive team against opposing point guards.
Almost every starter is in play against the Magic, so if Bojan Bogdanovic fits your last spot and you need exposure to this game I don’t hate taking him, but he is my least favorite Pacer’s starter. Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis are starting to get expensive around the industry. This is a good matchup for the two of them and I think they are both great cash game and tournament plays on this slate. They are similar in price and if you force me to pick one I will side with Sabonis. If you need the extra $100 or $500 to upgrade I don’t mind going to Young instead. Just depends how badly you want to use that extra salary to upgrade. If you are looking for a deep tournament flier off the bench look no further than Cory Joseph and Lance Stephenson. If forced to pick one I side with Lance because he can explode for massive games and will chuck the ball up if the game blows out. I rarely play bench players in DFS, but this is a spot I wouldn’t hate getting some exposure these guys in some low dollar tournaments.
Notable Injuries Myles Turner (questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,400 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 26.9 | 0.1 | 30.1 | -0.2 | 0.90 | 18.5% | 28 | 30 | 24 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,900 | $9,400 | $17,500 | 42.2 | -0.9 | 34.1 | 1.0 | 1.24 | 27.2% | 29 | 27 | 27 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 20.5 | 2.2 | 30.6 | -2.0 | 0.67 | 16.1% | 27 | 20 | 30 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,300 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 26.9 | 4.3 | 32.6 | 3.1 | 0.82 | 15.3% | 19 | 30 | 26 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,400 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 26.2 | 3.1 | 25.3 | 4.7 | 1.04 | 19.2% | 23 | 25 | 26 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,500 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.3 | -0.9 | 25.9 | 3.7 | 0.71 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 20.4 | -4.1 | 23.1 | -5.0 | 0.88 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Darren Collison, Domantas Sabonis
Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 15 | 30 | 21 | 27 | DvP | 17 | 9 | 25 | 4 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 12 | 14 | 1 | 19 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
EDITOR’S NOTE – John Wall has been ruled out. Do not roster him in your DFS lineups.
The Wizards come into this game ranked 5th in the Eastern Conference, but don’t let that fool you because they are only 0.5 games in front of fifth place. They have no time to lose games to a team like Atlanta, so I expect them to bring their best on the road against Atlanta.
Bradley Beal is going to be a top play on this slate with John Wall out. Beal is a lock for me on this slate and one of the best pay up options with Wall out. Kelly Oubre sees a nice bump in usage with Wall out too and I think he is a great secondary option on this slate. Otto Porter has one of the best matchups in this game going up against the worst team in the league at defending small forwards. This is also not a great position on this slate, so I like plugging in Porter because I think he could have a massive game. I have Porter as an elite play and he is my favorite Wizard to roster on this slate. Markieff Morris is a great guy to throw in as a 10% play if you are building 20 lineups. He is trending upward and has a ton of upside at that price. Markieff is now not only a tournament play but a cash game one too with Wall out. Marcin Gortat had his run, but it’s not Polish Heritage Night and he is a fade to me. Some might argue the matchup is great and I get it, but I will pass on him with a lot of better centers on this slate.
Notable Injuries John Wall (OUT)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,600 | $9,500 | $17,300 | 41.0 | -2.0 | 34.3 | 1.4 | 1.20 | 28.7% | 22 | 20 | 30 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,100 | $8,100 | $16,600 | 36.9 | -3.8 | 35.9 | 1.7 | 1.03 | 26.1% | 11 | 15 | 2 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 29.6 | -4.4 | 31.6 | -1.3 | 0.94 | 16.2% | 30 | 30 | 16 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,000 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 20.0 | -0.2 | 25.1 | 2.2 | 0.80 | 16.0% | 8 | 21 | 21 |
| Marcin Gortat | $3,900 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 24.2 | -2.4 | 26.8 | -4.5 | 0.90 | 13.8% | 25 | 27 | 10 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,900 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 22.4 | 2.0 | 27.4 | 3.2 | 0.82 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal Otto Porter
Secondary Plays – Kelly Oubre Jr. and Markieff Morris
Atlanta Hawks
The worst team in the NBA is the Atlanta Hawks. They are not playing like that though recently, winning four of their last ten games. For a team that only has 14 wins on the season that is impressive. The Hawks are still a team that I have some interest in DFS and it will be no different today against the Wizards. Washington is ranked in the middle of the pack in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential and pace of play.
One of my favorite plays on the slate is Kent Bazemore. He is just way too cheap at $5200 and he basically has a floor of 20 with ceiling of 45 fantasy points. It’s hard to find that at this price tag and I think this is a great matchup where he can show that 40-point fantasy game. The last couple weeks I liked Ingles and Carroll as my cheap value play that could go for 30 or more fantasy points and I feel the same about Bazemore in this spot. Let’s hope we can make it three in a row this week! Dennis Schroder is too cheap as well at only $7200 on DraftKings. He is coming off a bad game which could keep his ownership down which is great for tournaments. At this price to get someone who is averaging five times their price seems too good to be true and I would make sure to get exposure to him. Taurean Prince gets the best on paper matchup and is underpriced because of his recent finger injury. Prince shot poorly with the finger injury, but in his last four games has shot 16 for 31. The previous four before that he shot 7 for 24. Reports sound like he has been feeling better and at this price I think it is a great time to jump on in tournaments. I don’t hate it in cash games because he is so cheap and it’s not the best position on the slate. Other than those three I will fade the rest of the Hawks on this slate.
Notable Injuries None
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,300 | $7,200 | $14,900 | 34.8 | -0.4 | 31.8 | -1.7 | 1.09 | 29.5% | 11 | 17 | 12 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 28.1 | -3.9 | 28.2 | -1.3 | 1.00 | 19.7% | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| Taurean Prince | $4,800 | $4,600 | $10,300 | 24.5 | -11.6 | 30.3 | -6.6 | 0.81 | 16.6% | 14 | 25 | 1 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,100 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.3 | -5.4 | 25.7 | -0.8 | 0.87 | 16.4% | 21 | 4 | 19 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,700 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 12.8 | 1.4 | 17.9 | -2.9 | 0.72 | 10.1% | 14 | 19 | 9 |
| Marco Belinelli | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 18.6 | -2.7 | 23.4 | 0.4 | 0.79 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| John Collins | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 24.7 | 4.2 | 22.2 | 1.8 | 1.11 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kent Bazemore
Secondary Plays – Taurean Prince and Dennis Schroder
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Derrick Jones | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 5 | DvP | 19 | 2 | 28 | 17 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 4 | |
Charlotte Hornets
This is one of the least appealing teams on the slate because of the prices around the industry and the matchup. The Hornets are currently four-point road underdogs in a game with a 204.5 total and playing on the second night of a back to back. The Heat might be injured, but they are not a joke on the defensive end of the floor. Miami is ranked third in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. This is also a pace down game for the Hornets going up against the 28th paced team in the league and they are the 9th fastest-paced team.
I will give DraftKings credit they underpriced the Hornets for the Heat matchup which makes them way more appealing over there. On FanDuel, Kemba Walker is $800 higher than DraftKings and Dwight Howard is $1900 higher. Fading Hornets on FanDuel is the right call, but I do have interest on DraftKings. My favorite Hornets player is Dwight Howard for only $8000. Fresh off his massive 56.7 fantasy night in a revenge game against Atlanta where he said, “I wanna kill them.” I don’t expect him to have another seven-block night, but I do like taking Dwight in games where he gets back to the basket centers like Whiteside. This means his minutes will be secure and I don’t have to worry about the Hornets going small and losing any minutes. Whenever a player is $1900 cheaper on one site that should give you some interest and I think Howard is an elite play on DraftKings. Kemba is cheap at $7500, but I don’t like this matchup for him. I understand he has been good and I don’t think I will play him, but he is a secondary play for me on DraftKings. I like other point guards more on this slate, so I will likely fade, but his recent performances can’t go overlooked for this price. Other than Howard and Kemba I see no need in playing any other Hornets. If you need a value play in this game I don’t hate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Marvin Williams. I just don’t think they are necessary to target in such a tough matchup despite their recent performances and cheap price tags.
Notable Injuries Cody Zeller (out)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.8 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,300 | $7,500 | $14,200 | 36.9 | 3.0 | 34.7 | 0.1 | 1.06 | 26.9% | 1 | 4 | 23 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,000 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 24.8 | 4.8 | 31.2 | 0.4 | 0.79 | 17.9% | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,900 | $4,100 | $8,800 | 21.1 | 0.4 | 26.4 | 0.0 | 0.80 | 15.5% | 17 | 7 | 7 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 19.6 | 1.5 | 26.1 | 2.5 | 0.75 | 12.9% | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Dwight Howard | $9,900 | $8,000 | $14,500 | 36.7 | 13.5 | 30.6 | 3.4 | 1.20 | 19.3% | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,400 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 25.3 | -2.0 | 25.6 | -3.5 | 0.99 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 19.2 | 1.3 | 23.0 | -1.9 | 0.84 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard (DraftKings only FanDuel fade)
Secondary Plays – none
Miami Heat
The Heat are somehow ranked fourth in the Eastern Conference despite all the injuries they have gone through. They are starting to get healthier though with Tyler Johnson the only player listed as questionable for them tonight. This is the lowest total on the slate at 204.5 and probably the game I have the least interest in. This will be a big pace up game for the Heat who are going up against the 9th fastest paced team in the league, while they are ranked 28th.
Goran Dragic is seeing a 25.4% usage on this team and is someone that we have been targeting recently with all the injuries Miami has suffered. With Tyler Johnson questionable to return, we will need to know if he is going to be in or out to figure out what to do with Dragic. At his price and recent performance, I think I will stay away from him even if Johnson is out. If Johnson is out, Wayne Ellington will be a value to consider on the slate. I don’t think I will play him because I prefer other plays in that price range, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a secondary play. Josh Richardson just won’t leave me alone drawing a great matchup against the third worst team at defending small forwards. I can’t ignore how good Richardson has been despite his expensive price. I think he just cracks the elite plays for me because of how consistent he has been. He makes a great cash play, but if I think ownership will be high on him, then he makes a great fade because I feel like his upside is sort of capped at that price. I don’t think we need to play Miami forward roulette on this slate, so I am will simply just fade them all. The last guy to discuss is Hassan Whiteside and he is another guy I will just simply fade. He is $1400 cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel, so I understand if you have interest in him, but I just like too many other Centers to consider him in one of the toughest matchups in the league.
Notable Injuries Tyler Johnson (questionable)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.7 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,200 | $7,000 | $14,500 | 30.5 | -0.4 | 32.1 | 2.2 | 0.95 | 25.4% | 21 | 19 | 10 |
| Derrick Jones | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 0.70 | 9.5% | 9 | 2 | 8 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 25.5 | 6.4 | 34.1 | 1.3 | 0.75 | 16.2% | 19 | 28 | 8 |
| James Johnson | $5,600 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 25.1 | -2.4 | 26.7 | 1.4 | 0.94 | 18.7% | 24 | 17 | 22 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $9,000 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 36.5 | 5.2 | 26.1 | 1.7 | 1.40 | 20.2% | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Wayne Ellington | $5,000 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 17.8 | 6.8 | 25.8 | 7.9 | 0.69 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Josh Richardson
Secondary Plays – none
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 17 | 9 | 25 | 24 | DvP | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 14 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 3 | |
Boston Celtics
This is the game of the night! At least it is for me because I am a Celtics and can’t wait to see how we shape up against the Golden State Warriors tonight. This is also the primetime ABC game of the night, so the stars should come out and look to show up. The biggest thing to key in on in this game is that this game is a 3.1 boost in pace for the Celtics. Boston is ranked 20th in pace and going up against the 3rd fastest paced team in the league. I know the Celtics are not the easiest DFS roster, but the pace boost and recent injury to Marcus Smart are going to be hard to ignore.
Kyrie Irving is seeing a 29.6% usage and is one of my favorite pay up options on the slate. This is a great game environment for him – we know he has gone for massive game in the finals against the Warriors in the past. This is not the same situation obviously, but I think this is such a great spot for the Kyrie Irving massive ceiling game. If this game stays close, you better believe Kyrie is going to be part of it. Jaylen Brown’s price is great around the industry and he fit this game environment well. With Smart out, he will be needed on the floor a ton defensively and I think Brown’s price combined with the game flow makes him an elite value play. Jayson Tatum is the guy that I think could struggle a little in this game. I think Tatum is another elite value play and just way too underpriced for this game environment. The matchup might not be the easiest, but his price for this type of game is just too cheap for his type of floor and ceiling.
Al Horford is another player that is an elite play for me but more so on FanDuel rather than DraftKings. He is only $6700 on FanDuel and if you compare that to all the other centers he just pops out as such a great play. Some may argue that he is only $400 more on DraftKings so why don’t I have him as an elite play over there?? I think he is a secondary center option on DraftKings, but I think a lot of Centers at the top end are underpriced on DK and overpriced on FD. The price difference really makes Horford an elite play over on FanDuel and a great way to get exposure to this game. Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier are some tournament fliers you can take that will come off the bench and could produce big for Boston. The guy no one will talk about is Shane Larkin. Larkin saw 23 minutes in Smart’s first game out with the hand injury and is only $3400 on DraftKings. I found this tweet from the Boston Celitcs twitter and it said this, “Brad Stevens singled out Shane Larkin as a player who will have a great opportunity tomorrow night against Golden State.” If you need a cheap guard and are making multiple teams, it won’t take much to be overweight on Larkin. I recommend going overweight on him tomorrow. Final take away from this game is that there are too many Celtics players underpriced and I would make sure to get a lot of exposure to them in this matchup.
Notable Injuries Marcus Smart (out)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,700 | $8,400 | $14,900 | 38.8 | 6.6 | 32.9 | 4.0 | 1.18 | 29.6% | 11 | 15 | 14 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,300 | $5,700 | $10,300 | 25.8 | -1.8 | 31.4 | -0.1 | 0.82 | 17.9% | 5 | 17 | 6 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,000 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 25.9 | -4.1 | 31.0 | 0.7 | 0.83 | 15.7% | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 21.4 | 1.0 | 23.9 | 2.6 | 0.89 | 20.3% | 12 | 25 | 1 |
| Al Horford | $6,700 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 33.8 | 0.8 | 32.7 | 1.5 | 1.03 | 17.5% | 17 | 24 | 2 |
| Terry Rozier | $3,800 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 19.8 | -1.5 | 23.0 | -0.1 | 0.86 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford (FanDuel specifically)
Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier and Shane Larkin (DraftKings tournaments only)
Golden State Warriors
I talked about how great of a pace up game this is for the Celtics so that means this is a bad pace game for the Warriors. The Warriors typically dictate the pace of games, but Boston should slow the game down more than other teams would and this will lessen the opportunities for Warriors. Not only that, but the Celtics are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. Boston is one of the toughest teams to go up against and I typically don’t target teams against them. This is the Warriors though and they have many matchup-proof players and if I like a lot of Boston guys I must find some plays to run it back with.
It took me a while to think through who I like the most in this game. I immediately crossed of Klay Thompson because he gets a matchup against the best team in the league at defending the three-point line. You can make the case for him on DraftKings because apparently they decided to price Klay for only $6100 which is just insane. For that reason I made him a secondary play, but no chance I touch him on FanDuel unless it’s the only way to get exposure to the game and its the last spot to fill out in tournaments. Stephen Curry has historically struggled against Brad Stevens defenses, and will be going up against the best team at defending the three balls, but he is shooting 49.6% since returning from injury from three. Now some might say Curry is on fire and why would it stop now?? I am going to side with team math and say that Curry doesn’t shoot lights out from three tonight. At $10,100 on DraftKings, I won’t pay that price. I think on FanDuel you are absolutely tempted by the $9500 price, but I think I prefer cheaper options and I will fade Curry today. It’s not going to be an easy fade and only easier because I am not playing cash games. If you have enough money on FanDuel to pay up for him I don’t hate it, but I just like Kyrie Irving more for $1100 cheaper.
I love Draymond Green in this spot and think that he is too cheap around the industry at only $7700. In the last four games he has played against Boston Draymond Green is averaging 41.1 DraftKings points per game. We know that the best way to attack Boston is at the center position and I expect Green to get a lot of run there in small ball lineups. Green is an elite play that I like to pay up for on this slate. I do like Kevin Durant here and I think he is a good option if you have the money. I’m just not going out of my way to jam him in. If you have the money to roster him I won’t tell you not to, but he is not a priority for me and only a secondary option. Other than that, I don’t like any of the bench player for the Warriors and think they are easy fades.
Notable Injuries None
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 116.1 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,500 | $10,100 | $19,400 | 45.7 | -2.8 | 32.8 | 1.6 | 1.39 | 28.7% | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,600 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 31.2 | -2.2 | 34.2 | 2.0 | 0.91 | 20.9% | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,500 | $10,300 | $17,900 | 48.4 | -1.7 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 1.39 | 26.4% | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Draymond Green | $7,700 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 36.9 | 1.9 | 32.4 | 3.8 | 1.14 | 16.8% | 12 | 5 | 24 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.2 | 2.3 | 14.6 | 0.4 | 1.04 | 14.4% | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.5 | -4.9 | 25.7 | -8.2 | 0.72 | 11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |