NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks – 6:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 215.5 | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Tyler Dorsey | Taurean Prince | John Collins | Dewayne Dedmon | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 8 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 26 | DvP | 26 | 21 | 30 | 27 | 28 | |
DRPM Rat. | 8 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 24 | 26 | 15 | 13 |
Atlanta Hawks
This game starts an hour before the other games, so I am going to do the analysis assuming that you are playing the one-game slate. The Hawks get a tough matchup against the Bucks and are the worst team to target on the slate. Injuries have helped make them interesting though, which could be important on this one-game slate. It is no secret that we are going to want to jam in Giannis Antetokounmpo on a showdown slate. Since that is the case, we are going to need some value, and I believe the Hawks can provide that for us.
Taurean Prince has been incredible in the last three games, with no less than 40 FanDuel points in each. He is going to be a player that I want to get a ton of exposure to with Kent Bazemore out. Prince is one of the better plays on the Hawks and one you want to be overweight on. The Hawks guards have had their minutes spaced out — instead of targeting Dennis Schroder, I would load up on Tyler Dorsey. He is cheap, playing minutes in the mid-20s and will help you get Giannis in your lineups. Dorsey is one of the better values on the slate and one that I would be targeting. We know the Bucks are bad against opposing bigs, so we must have some interest in the Hawks bigs, right? John Collins is my favorite target in the Hawks frontcourt, but if you don’t have the money for him and need to go cheap to a Mike Muscala, I don’t hate it. He would mainly be a salary-relief, last-man-in kind of play. Dewayne Dedmon likely doesn’t make the list for me. His recent performances have been bad, and I would rather play John Henson for less. The last guy I want to talk about is Damion Lee. I don’t know much about him to be honest, but if you need a min-priced play on a one-game slate, he is your guy.
Notable Injuries
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (16 of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (24 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Schroder | 33.0 | -7.4 | 31.0 | -3.6 | 1.06 | 29.2% | 9 | 7 | 8 | |||
Tyler Dorsey | 10.2 | 6.5 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 0.69 | 18.0% | 17 | 12 | 26 | |||
Taurean Prince | 24.5 | 9.8 | 29.9 | -0.3 | 0.82 | 17.8% | 12 | 1 | 25 | |||
John Collins | 24.1 | -1.6 | 23.1 | 3.8 | 1.04 | 15.5% | 2 | 9 | 3 | |||
Dewayne Dedmon | 23.8 | 2.0 | 24.0 | 2.8 | 0.99 | 14.2% | 28 | 26 | 5 |
Elite Plays – Taurean Prince and John Collins
Secondary Plays – Tyler Dorsey
Milwaukee Bucks
As a reminder, I am going to do this analysis assuming that you are playing the one-game slate. The Bucks are the best plays on this one-game slate and are a team we should want to target as much as possible. They get a tasty matchup against the terrible Hawks and they should provide us with a ton of fantasy goodness.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best play overall for this Showdown slate and is a must for your lineups. If you are playing on FanDuel, I would make sure to plug him into your MVP slot. He is the best play on the slate and jamming him in makes a ton of sense. I likely will miss out on Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton because of their prices. If I can get one in my lineup, I would lean towards the cheaper option. Brandon Jennings could cut into Bledsoe’s production, which makes me lean Middleton. Jennings is an interesting tournament dart on a one-game slate. He smashed in his first game back, but against the Magic he didn’t receive a ton of minutes. That game was close though, and if you think this game blows out, then targeting Jennings makes a ton of sense. If you think it stays close, Jennings is likely out of play. Jabari Parker is still seeing minutes in the lower 20s. If he is a last guy in, I don’t hate him, but he’s not someone I would go out of my way to roster. I prefer John Henson for a little more money in this matchup. The Hawks struggle against opposing centers, so this could be a great spot for Henson to have a 30-point fantasy game. I think he is a nice and safe option, one that I would make sure to be overweight on for the one-game slate.
Notable Injuries None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.7 (1 of 22)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (9 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Bledsoe | 33.3 | -0.1 | 31.3 | 1.2 | 1.06 | 23.7% | 24 | 25 | 29 | |||
Tony Snell | 14.4 | 0.1 | 28.6 | -2.5 | 0.50 | 9.7% | 17 | 20 | 24 | |||
Khris Middleton | 34.3 | -1.8 | 36.5 | -1.3 | 0.94 | 22.3% | 30 | 30 | 26 | |||
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 52.0 | -2.5 | 37.1 | -1.2 | 1.40 | 28.1% | 20 | 27 | 15 | |||
John Henson | 23.4 | -1.8 | 25.6 | -0.4 | 0.91 | 12.9% | 14 | 28 | 13 | |||
Jabari Parker | 19.3 | 0.9 | 21.0 | 2.1 | 0.92 | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – John Henson and Khris Middleton
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 209.0 | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Cory Joseph | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 13 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 6 | DvP | 10 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 25 | |
DRPM Rat. | 8 | 13 | 2 | 21 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 17 |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are still fighting for a playoff spot and are in strong contention to hold onto the three-seed in the East. Every game counts going forward, so they are going to want to do their best to win this game against Washington. The Wizards are middle of the pack in terms of points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential and pace of play. All in all, the Pacers have some players that I am looking to target in this game, but I am not going crazy over this game that features a 208.5 total.
The biggest news to watch out for on the Pacers is the status of Myles Turner. If he doesn’t play, we can play other value plays like Thaddeus Young (if he plays) and maybe even Al Jefferson. Turner will likely have the questionable tag all day long, but just know that if he doesn’t play, there will be potential value here. Victor Oladipo has a great price on DraftKings at only $8,200. I don’t love the matchup for him, but I do think there is upside at his price, so I am going to make him a secondary tournament play. The only other play that I really want to discuss is Bojan Bogdanovic. In Bogdanovic’s two games against the Wizards this seasons, he has 74.5 total DraftKings points. It makes sense because the Wizards are ranked 24th against opposing small forwards and have struggled against them all year long. Bogdanovic is going to go in as an elite, low-owned tournament play for me at this price.
Notable Injuries – Myles Turner (questionable), Thaddeus Young (questionable), Domantas Sabonis (out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cory Joseph | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 27.3 | 4.8 | 0.70 | 14.8% | 10 | 13 | 8 |
Victor Oladipo | $8,900 | $8,200 | $14,900 | 42.2 | -6.2 | 34.2 | -2.2 | 1.23 | 27.7% | 6 | 8 | 13 |
Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 21.6 | -1.5 | 30.8 | -1.1 | 0.70 | 16.5% | 14 | 21 | 2 |
Thaddeus Young | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.9 | -5.4 | 32.5 | -4.8 | 0.83 | 15.2% | 21 | 2 | 21 |
Myles Turner | $6,900 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 29.5 | 2.1 | 28.3 | 0.3 | 1.04 | 17.5% | 9 | 6 | 9 |
Darren Collison | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 27.5 | -1.8 | 29.8 | -6.3 | 0.92 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Al Jefferson | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 15.7 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 2.4 | 1.17 | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic and Al Jefferson (if Turner and/or Young are out)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (DraftKings only)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are only one game back from the Pacers in the standings, so I am expecting this to be a big game for both teams. This matchup has a 208.5 total and is not a game that I am going to be over-exposed to on a 10-game slate. The Wizards are going to be a team that I am under-weight on in tournaments, but there are still some players that we should consider.
Overall, Washington is starting to be too pricey for my liking. John Wall has been out a while and now the likes of Bradley Beal and company are priced accordingly. This isn’t a matchup that I love in general, so on a 10-game slate I think fading everyone on the Wizards is the right call. I understand Marcin Gortat is cheap and draws a great matchup, but I will pass on his inconsistency. Beal and Otto Porter are too priced up and don’t draw the greatest matchups on the board. It feels lazy to just cross an entire team off, and obviously I don’t want to come across that way. That said, there are a lot more appealing teams to target today, and if there is a team that I don’t like going forward, I am going to keep it short, sweet, and straight to the point. Fade the Wizards, unless we get news that changes the landscape of the slate.
Notable Injuries – None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (15 of 22)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tomas Satoransky | $6,200 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 17.6 | 13.9 | 21.0 | 12.4 | 0.84 | 15.2% | 5 | 10 | 19 |
Bradley Beal | $8,500 | $9,200 | $16,900 | 38.2 | -1.5 | 36.5 | -0.5 | 1.05 | 26.1% | 22 | 5 | 1 |
Otto Porter | $7,500 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 31.4 | -2.9 | 32.1 | 0.1 | 0.98 | 17.3% | 5 | 12 | 26 |
Markieff Morris | $6,100 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 23.6 | 6.3 | 27.1 | 5.6 | 0.87 | 16.6% | 18 | 10 | 7 |
Marcin Gortat | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 22.8 | -7.5 | 25.6 | -4.5 | 0.89 | 13.9% | 23 | 25 | 17 |
Kelly Oubre | $5,600 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 27.6 | -1.4 | 0.78 | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 226.5 | Vegas Total | 226.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 117.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | Emeka Okafor | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 20 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 15 | DvP | 7 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 21 | |
DRPM Rat. | 23 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 3 |
Houston Rockets
The Warriors are banged up, so I expect the Rockets to keep their foot on the gas and continue to push for that one seed, and this is a great matchup for them against the Pelicans. We have been targeting players against the Pelicans since Cousins went down, as they are struggling defensively while playing at the second-fastest pace in the league. Houston is a team that I want to be overweight on in tournaments.
Chris Paul is an elite option at his current price and should have a big game against Rajon Rondo. I love CP3 in this spot, as he is someone that is just too cheap for the matchup he is in. James Harden gets a great matchup as well and is another elite play on the Rockets. The Pelicans are ranked 26th against opposing shooting guards, and Harden has a 33.8% true usage. He is also currently league MVP if the season ended today and I am expecting him to keep pushing for it as the season ends. Harden has disappointed recently for his current price, but if there was any spot for him to get right back on track, it would be against the Pelicans. Clint Capela was cheap all week long because of his poor performances, but he had a big game against Clippers and saw his price shoot back up. I think at his current price he is a solid secondary option but not an elite play. In Capela’s two games against the Pelicans this year, he is averaging 34.5 DraftKings points. I think on FanDuel there are better center plays, so I have more interest in his $6,900 price on DraftKings than that $7,700 tag on FanDuel.
With the Rockets now healthy, it’s harder for me to get behind any of the other role players on Houston. Ryan Anderson is pushing to play, and his 10-15 minutes restriction would do enough to get me off these fringe players like P.J. Tucker, Joe Johnson, and others. I think Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon are solid secondary options that still have upside at their respective prices. The Pelicans have struggled against wing players that can shoot threes all season long. This is a great spot to get more exposure than the field on these two in tournaments, as they have a ton of upside at this price and in this matchup.
Notable Injuries – Ryan Anderson (limited minutes)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.0 (1 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (9 of 22)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (3 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Paul | $8,100 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 40.9 | -7.7 | 31.9 | -1.5 | 1.28 | 25.6% | 15 | 20 | 23 |
James Harden | $11,700 | $11,200 | $20,900 | 53.7 | -7.6 | 35.6 | -2.7 | 1.51 | 33.6% | 27 | 26 | 2 |
Trevor Ariza | $5,100 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 24.0 | -4.8 | 34.5 | -0.4 | 0.70 | 13.1% | 17 | 26 | 30 |
P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 27.7 | 0.5 | 0.59 | 8.8% | 26 | 20 | 1 |
Clint Capela | $7,700 | $6,900 | $13,400 | 34.9 | -3.8 | 27.4 | -1.5 | 1.27 | 17.0% | 20 | 15 | 16 |
Eric Gordon | $5,300 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 25.8 | -0.9 | 31.4 | -2.1 | 0.82 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,800 | $3,200 | $6,500 | 16.3 | -0.8 | 26.5 | 0.2 | 0.62 | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul and James Harden
Secondary Plays – Clint Capela, Trevor Ariza, and Eric Gordon (tournaments only)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are a team that we have been targeting frequently, as they have generally been underpriced since DeMarcus Cousins got hurt. Some of them are still too cheap. Overall, this is a game that is going to be popular because it has a 227 total along with some good value options.
Anthony Davis is good at basketball and is an elite play. In his last 10 games, AD is averaging 59.7 DraftKings points per game. It is a 10-game slate and there are obviously a lot of ways to go. The best advice I can give you is that if you are doing a game stack, make sure to roster Davis. If this game stays close, you will want him on your lineups. If you prefer other studs like LeBron James and James Harden, I get it. That said, AD is a guy that I would want to make sure that I am overweight on in tournaments. Rajon Rondo draws a tough matchup against Chris Paul. I looked at their last two games against each other, and in one game Rondo had a triple double, while in the next he had zero points in 17 minutes. Rondo is a frustrating roster but has upside. The problem is he still has a low floor, which means he is a secondary option and a tournament-only play. Jrue Holiday is $9,000 on FanDuel. I know he has been terrific and he has won me some money over the last month. He’s also averaging 50 DraftKings points against Houston this year and averaging 44.6 DraftKings points in his last six games. I just think that I prefer him more on DraftKings for only $8,300. Overall, I think Jrue has upside at this price and is an elite play on DraftKings and a secondary play on FanDuel. E’Twaun Moore is cheap around the industry. He is a secondary play for me along with Nikola Mirotic. I like Mirotic in this matchup, as I think this game goes small, which fits Mirotic’s strengths more than (player-popup #emeka-okafor)Emeka Okafor. Okafor could still get there in less minutes. I just worry about his upside and think this is more of a Mirotic game.
Notable Injuries – None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 112.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (17 of 22)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rajon Rondo | $6,200 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 25.7 | 2.2 | 25.6 | 1.5 | 1.00 | 18.2% | 7 | 7 | 2 |
Jrue Holiday | $9,000 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 37.5 | 4.7 | 36.6 | -0.9 | 1.03 | 21.9% | 15 | 16 | 18 |
E’Twaun Moore | $4,200 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 20.5 | -2.5 | 31.8 | -1.5 | 0.65 | 14.5% | 22 | 10 | 15 |
Anthony Davis | $12,400 | $11,500 | $20,200 | 54.4 | 4.2 | 36.6 | -2.1 | 1.49 | 25.6% | 2 | 3 | 9 |
Emeka Okafor | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 18.3 | -0.3 | 16.7 | 2.0 | 1.09 | 13.1% | 15 | 21 | 3 |
Nikola Mirotic | $5,700 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 29.6 | -5.0 | 27.0 | 0.3 | 1.10 | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic, and E’Twaun Moore
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 220.5 | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -6.5 | Vegas Spread | 6.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 113.5 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.9 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Emmanuel Mudiay | Frank Ntilikina | Tim Hardaway | Michael Beasley | Enes Kanter | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 25 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 11 | DvP | 16 | 15 | 25 | 16 | 16 | |
DRPM Rat. | 30 | 17 | 18 | 27 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 17 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 9 |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are out of the playoff race and are playing another bad team tonight in the New York Knicks. This game has a 221.5 total and is one that I would typically want to target. Part of the problem, though, is that the Knicks are going to be unpredictable. Will they try and play their best players and make it competitive? Or will we see the bench players get extended run? That is the big question, but the Hornets side of the ball is luckily easier to solve than the Knicks.
Kemba Walker is a fine play and could have a good game against the Knicks. He just seems too priced up for me, so I would rather spend my money on Chris Paul instead. I will likely have no Kemba. If you still like him, I don’t want to talk you off him, but I just think CP3 is a better play. Nicolas Batum is expensive, but he has been crushing. He should be able to have his way with the Knicks and I think he is someone that we want to take a strong look at. He is a secondary play on this slate and a better play on a site like FanDuel, where you are forced to play two shooting guards. Dwight Howard still has upside at this price. That being said, I really don’t think I need to spend $9,000 on Howard. I think he is a good secondary play, and if you have the money for Howard, I wouldn’t hate the play. I see myself trying to save at center, because I don’t love a lot of the spend up options. If I am spending up though, it looks like Howard might be the guy I go. Other than the core three on Charlotte, I don’t have interest in any of these other plays. You can take deep tournament shots on guys like Marvin Williams, but it doesn’t feel like the right slate to do it.
Notable Injuries – None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 6.9 (2 of 22)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,500 | $8,400 | $16,900 | 37.5 | -6.2 | 34.9 | 0.8 | 1.08 | 26.8% | 19 | 25 | 30 |
Nicolas Batum | $8,000 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 28.9 | 11.0 | 32.0 | 4.4 | 0.90 | 18.6% | 14 | 19 | 17 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.6 | -3.8 | 25.2 | -4.5 | 0.74 | 14.9% | 29 | 20 | 18 |
Marvin Williams | $4,300 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.0 | 2.3 | 25.8 | -1.1 | 0.74 | 13.1% | 9 | 14 | 27 |
Dwight Howard | $9,100 | $9,000 | $16,500 | 37.3 | 12.7 | 30.6 | 1.5 | 1.22 | 19.5% | 13 | 11 | 29 |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 19.4 | -1.8 | 23.2 | -0.9 | 0.84 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Jeremy Lamb | $5,300 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 23.9 | -4.0 | 24.5 | -3.3 | 0.98 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (FanDuel)
New York Knicks
The Knicks have been very unpredictable. Just when we think we know the rotation, it changes. The good news is that we have two players that are likely out for personal reasons, which could make this situation easier on this slate. Courtney Lee will miss this game and Lance Thomas might too. Tim Hardaway Jr. had already been playing secure minutes, and I expect that to continue in this game. He also has the best individual matchup at small forward and is someone that I want exposure to. I think this is a game where we see big minutes for Trey Burke and Emmanuel Mudiay. These are the two main value guards on the Knicks that I would look to get exposure to. Frank Ntilikina should get more run with Lee out, but he isn’t someone I want to play with the minutes down recently. Michael Beasley had a big game against the Sixers, but can we trust the minutes? I think at his price there is still upside and we can trust that he should play 25 or more minutes. He isn’t someone that I feel great about in cash games, but I think he is a good secondary tournament option. Dwight Howard has been good defensively for most the year, so I feel good about staying away from the Knicks frontcourt and focusing on the plays that I discussed above. I understand this is a great game to target on paper, but keep in mind that this is still the Knicks, so anything can happen. Troy Williams went from playing 22 minutes to 0 minutes the next game. Buyer beware.
Notable Injuries – Lance Thomas (questionable), Courtney Lee (out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (11 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (8 of 22)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emmanuel Mudiay | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 16.9 | 3.3 | 19.7 | 8.0 | 0.86 | 23.0% | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Frank Ntilikina | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 14.2 | -1.8 | 20.8 | 3.7 | 0.68 | 16.3% | 16 | 15 | 12 |
Tim Hardaway | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 28.3 | 0.1 | 33.0 | 2.7 | 0.86 | 22.1% | 25 | 25 | 10 |
Michael Beasley | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 23.0 | 5.7 | 21.7 | 7.0 | 1.06 | 23.3% | 24 | 16 | 13 |
Enes Kanter | $5,900 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 30.5 | -1.7 | 25.7 | -2.4 | 1.19 | 18.8% | 10 | 16 | 9 |
Kyle O’Quinn | $5,800 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 17.3 | 3.1 | 1.19 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Trey Burke | $4,700 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 18.8 | -0.5 | 16.7 | 1.2 | 1.12 | 27.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr.
Secondary Plays – Trey Burke, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Michael Beasley
NOTE: I really wanted to make the guards elite plays, but the Knicks are too unpredictable. Lee is out though, which makes their minutes way more secure.
Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 213.5 | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Yogi Ferrell | Doug McDermott | Dwight Powell | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | D’Angelo Russell | Joe Harris | DeMarre Carroll | Jarrett Allen | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 28 | 11 | 13 | 28 | 30 | DvP | 21 | 13 | 8 | 18 | 9 | |
DRPM Rat. | 5 | 28 | 27 | 7 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 2 | 29 | 4 | 21 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are clearly tanking, and after some news came out about resting players, they will have some appealing value options for tonight. This is a great spot to target Dallas because a lot of players are sitting and the Nets are bad. This Brooklyn team is ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 23rd in defensive efficiency, 22nd in rebounding differential, and 7th in pace of play. This is a game that we are going to have to get a lot of exposure to.
The Dallas injury report is as follows: J.J. Barea is doubtful, Harrison Barnes is out, Dorian Finney-Smith is out, and Salah Mejri is out. The Mavs have discussed how they are looking to get longer looks at some of their young players like Johnathan Motley, Jameel Warney, and Nerlens Noel. I expect all these guys to be interesting plays, but Noel is the one I feel most confident in. Another frontcourt player that I like is Dwight Powell, who should see 30 minutes and was thriving a ton last time Harrison Barnes was out. He is another frontcourt value play that I will want to have a ton of exposure to. With Barnes out and Barea doubtful, this will open a ton of opportunities in the backcourt for Dennis Smith Jr., Yogi Ferrell, and Kyle Collinsworth. My favorite play would be Dennis Smith Jr., who should see a big usage bump in this scenario. Yogi and Collinsworth are okay too, but with so many good values on this slate, I don’t think they are musts. It is going to be important to monitor the news on the Mavs, so keep a close eye on them and attack the values.
Notable Injuries – Harrison Barnes (out), Dorian Finney-Smith (out), J.J. Barea (doubtful)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (16 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (12 of 22)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Smith | $6,600 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 27.7 | 0.9 | 29.8 | 3.4 | 0.93 | 26.7% | 27 | 28 | 5 |
Yogi Ferrell | $4,200 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 18.9 | 1.1 | 29.1 | 2.5 | 0.65 | 15.1% | 10 | 11 | 28 |
Doug McDermott | $3,600 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 21.7 | 1.5 | 0.59 | 13.5% | 7 | 13 | 27 |
Dwight Powell | $4,800 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 19.5 | 4.8 | 20.8 | 2.8 | 0.94 | 14.0% | 27 | 28 | 7 |
Dirk Nowitzki | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 24.4 | -4.4 | 24.8 | -3.5 | 0.99 | 18.7% | 30 | 30 | 28 |
Nerlens Noel | $5,100 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 1.03 | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Smith Jr., Nerlens Noel, and Dwight Powell
Secondary Plays – Yogi Ferrell
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets don’t have their first-round pick, so they are still trying to improve as a team and win games. Nonetheless, they are not a team I want to target a ton on this slate. This game has a 214 total with the Nets as three-point home favorites. This is also a big pace-down game for the Nets, but if Crabbe and Cunningham are out, I will want exposure to some of the Brooklyn options.
I am writing this up with the assumption that Crabbe and Cunningham are out. If Crabbe plays, I will be less interested in the guards that I am going to discuss now. Caris LeVert and D’Angelo Russell are two of my favorite options to target if Crabbe misses. Russell has a massive ceiling at this price, and I think could be a great tournament play. Levert is more of a DraftKings play because he is just too cheap at $5,300. On FanDuel, Russell is the better play if you have to pick between him and LeVert. I think he is a safe option with Crabbe out and has a ton of upside at that price. DeMarre Carroll is fine, but I really prefer to target Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at a similar price. RHJ has way more upside than Carroll and fits this game environment well. I think he is a secondary tournament play on this slate. Spencer Dinwiddie was moved to the bench last game but still played 30 minutes. I understand there is upside at this price, but with Russell starting, I prefer to target him when with the starting unit. Overall, the Nets are a team that I want to avoid if I can and limit my exposure. If Crabbe is out, I am going to be mostly interested in LeVert and Russell. I also have interest in Hollis-Jefferson because I think he has upside in this matchup. Other than that, I don’t want to get too much exposure to the Nets, because this is simply not a great game to target.
Notable Injuries – Allen Crabbe (doubtful), Dante Cunningham (out)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (9 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (13 of 22)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Dinwiddie | $5,900 | $5,900 | $12,500 | 29.2 | -3.3 | 29.2 | -1.0 | 1.00 | 22.6% | 26 | 21 | 29 |
D’Angelo Russell | $6,900 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 27.7 | 4.1 | 25.6 | 3.7 | 1.08 | 28.9% | 7 | 13 | 2 |
Joe Harris | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 17.5 | -5.3 | 25.2 | -0.1 | 0.69 | 15.1% | 24 | 8 | 29 |
DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 26.7 | 0.5 | 29.8 | -1.0 | 0.90 | 18.2% | 7 | 18 | 4 |
Jarrett Allen | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 18.2 | -2.0 | 19.0 | 0.9 | 0.96 | 14.0% | 20 | 9 | 21 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $6,300 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 28.7 | 4.0 | 27.8 | -1.3 | 1.03 | 20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Caris LeVert | $6,100 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 24.5 | 3.3 | 26.0 | 1.7 | 0.94 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |