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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 7th - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-08 01:53:01

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Charlotte at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Charlotte San Antonio
Article Image Vegas Total 193.5 Article Image Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Sprd 10 Vegas Sprd -10
Team Proj. 91.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 98.02 Team Pace 99.56
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Al Jefferson Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 28 1 15 1 14 Opp. Season 11 19 7 21 17
Opp. Last 7 28 1 15 1 14 Opp. Season 11 19 7 21 17

Charlotte

The Bobcats draw a brutal matchup as they head on the road to face an elite San Antonio team. They are double-digit underdogs and have a team total of just 91 points, so this is a spot to tread lightly.

The Spurs have been elite against every position except for PF, so I’d mostly just fade the Bobcats. Marvin Williams has been a viable source of salary relief to start the season, but I’ll pass in this matchup. The weak link of the Spurs defense is Tony Parker so Kemba Walker is the one player maybe worth a GPP look, but even then he’s really struggled to start the year. Al Jefferson finally got going last game, but the Spurs have been a great defensive and rebounding team so he’s not high on my list.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 31.2 — Usage Rate: 25.90

San Antonio

The Spurs should be able to get back on the winning track in this one, but they’ll face a Charlotte team that is solid defensively and plays slow, so the fantasy appeal isn’t all that great.

The Spurs made waves in the offseason by signing LaMarcus Aldridge, but it’s been Kawhi Leonard who has actually stepped into a bigger role offensively to start the year. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has at least 16 FGA in each game this season. Nicolas Batum is a solid defensive player, but Kawhi is becoming matchup proof, and the bigger worry is whether the Bobcats can keep this one close enough for the Spurs starters to see fourth quarter minutes.

LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t going to see 20+ FGA on a nightly basis like he did in Portland, so he’s a guy that you’ll have to pick your spots and is in a similar position to Kevin Love. Charlotte has struggled against opposing big men this year, and while I wouldn’t pay his tag on FD, he is very affordable on DK. While Tim Duncan will no longer see 35 minutes a game, he’s still averaging 29 MPG on the season so he’ll be in play if the situation is right. Given the abundance of PF options, I’ll hold off on this matchup, but he is center eligible on FD and at a solid price point. The offense and all the fantasy production has been running through Kawhi and the Spurs bigs so the upside with Tony Parker and Danny Green has been very limited.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,200 — DK: $7.900
Min/Game: 33.2 — Usage Rate: 23.00

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

FD: $8,400 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 32.6 — Usage Rate: 30.20

Tim Duncan

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 29.2 — Usage Rate: 22.20

Memphis at Utah – 09:00 PM

Memphis Utah
Article Image Vegas Total 180 Article Image Vegas Total 180
Vegas Sprd 1 Vegas Sprd -1
Team Proj. 89.5 Team Proj. 90.5
Team Pace 97.53 Team Pace 94.53
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 10 12 26 15 19 Opp. Season 8 15 24 10 8
Opp. Last 7 4 3 9 2 3 Opp. Season 8 15 24 10 8

Memphis

The Grizzlies have really struggled offensively and a matchup with the league’s best defense should only add to their problems

The Jazz play at a slow pace and are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game by a wide margin. They play lock down interior defense, and the Grizzlies are a team that relies on scoring the ball inside. That’s a bad equation for the Grizzlies and with a team total just under 90, this team (and entire game) is a very sensible complete fade.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah

The Grizzlies haven’t played their normal lock down defense this year as they are allowing 103.8 PPG. However, Vegas has this one pegged as a low-scoring brawl with a total of just 180 points.

As mentioned this is by far the most unappealing matchup on the slate, and both teams will play at a snail’s pace. The Grizzlies haven’t been as good defensively this year, but with this game featuring such a low total there’s just not much fantasy appeal on either side of the ball. If I was playing anyone, it would likely be Rudy Gobert as he isn’t dependent on scoring, and instead relies on rebounds and blocks. Based on the total in this one there should be plenty of rebounds for him to gobble up.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage Rate: 14.0

Golden State at Sacramento – 10:00 PM

Golden State Sacramento
Article Image Vegas Total 218 Article Image Vegas Total 218
Vegas Sprd -13.0 Vegas Sprd 13
Team Proj. 115.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 104.02 Team Pace 105.04
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Festus Ezeli Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Darren Collison James Anderson Rudy Gay Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 22 10 3 24 30 Opp. Season 14 18 5 11 20
Opp. Last 7 22 10 3 24 30 Opp. Season 14 18 5 11 20

Golden State

The Warriors are blowing every single team they face out of the water, and this looks like another impending blowout as the Kings will be without Boogie Cousins and have been awful defensively. The only saving grace for the Kings is that this game will not be at Oracle.

The Warriors are winning each game by almost 20 PPG and are a machine offensively. The Kings have been a defensive sieve at every position except for SF, and the Warriors should knife right through them. Stephen Curry is on another level and despite the blowouts, he’s been producing huge totals every game. I’m not worried about the blowout factor with Curry, but it has had a bigger effect on a guy like Klay Thompson. Thompson is a secondary option to Curry, and can be scoring reliant at times so he’s a guy I’d look to more in tournaments. However, when he gets hot, he can win you a tournament and he scored a record 37 points in a quarter against the Kings last year.

It sounds like Andrew Bogut will miss another game so Festus Ezeli should draw another start. He’ll only play around 20 minutes, but he’s producing at a great fantasy point per minute clip, and the Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins. On a site like FD, he’s averaging 6x salary. I’ll pass on Harrison Barnes in a tough matchup with Rudy Gay, and I think there are other PFs in better spots than Draymond tonight.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,400
Min/Game: 32.3 — Usage Rate: 28.90

Festus Ezeli

FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 19.7 — Usage Rate: 17.80

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 27.8 — Usage Rate: 27.60

Sacramento

The Kings are without their top scorer in DeMarcus Cousins and the Warriors have grown into a very good defensive team.

As mentioned the Warriors have turned into a quality defensive team, and when combined with a great offense, the result has been lots of blowouts. That means there’s a good chance the Kings starters could be taking in a fourth quarter, which is evident by the fact that they Warriors have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points this season. A guy like Rudy Gay should see a usage boost, but overall I have other teams higher on my list than this Kings team that could get pasted.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Houston at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM

Houston L.A. Clippers
Article Image Vegas Total 218.5 Article Image Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 113.3
Team Pace 100.81 Team Pace 103.16
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj Starter Chris Pau J.J. Redick Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 18 5 16 20 21 Opp. Season 15 27 27 27 29
Opp. Last 7 18 5 16 20 21 Opp. Season 15 27 27 27 29

Houston

The Rockets will head to L.A. to face the Clippers who will be out for revenge after last year’s epic playoff collapse. Dwight Howard sat out last night so he should be good to go tonight. Patrick Beverley is out and seems like Terence Jones will be out again as well, but double check that closer to tip.

The Rockets have been playing small ball with Marcus Thornton starting for Terrence Jones, but with the Clippers big lineups, it would make sense for Capela to step in. The Clippers have defended opposing SGs very well this season, and they’ve given James Harden fits over the past few years. He’s a guy who can always go off but there are other spots I’d look to spend that type of cap room tonight. The Clippers tend to crowd Harden, then help really hard and force the other Houston three point shooters to beat them so guys like Trevor Ariza and Marcus Thornton should get some looks tonight.

The Clippers haven’t defended the center position very well and Howard was rock solid against them in the playoffs last year so he’s in play for tournaments. Ty Lawson should get a ton of run with Patrick Beverley out but Chris Paul is one of better defensive PGs in the league so there are better matchups to be had elsewhere.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 29.3 — Usage Rate: 23.30

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 36.3 — Usage Rate: 16.50

L.A. Clippers

Vegas likes the Clippers to exact some revenge tonight as they are solid favorites and have a big team total of 113 points.

The Rockets have struggled defensively across the board this season, but outside of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Deandre Jordan, the fantasy production from the rest of the Clippers has been tough to come by. Dwight Howard will return so I’d Jordan is more of a secondary tournament option, but Paul and Griffin are two of the top options on this slate regardless of position.

In particular, this sets up for a huge game from Blake Griffin. Anthony Davis is in a great spot but Griffin is right there with him. The Rockets will likely be down Terrence Jones in addition to Donatas Motiejunas, and just don’t have a matchup for Griffin. Blake has been fantastic all year long, and dominated the Rockets in the playoffs last year as he averaged 27 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists. With Patrick Beverley out, the Rockets will be down their top perimeter defender, and Ty Lawson is not known as a great defensive PG. Paul should be able to do whatever he wants to offensively, and it’s just a question of how aggressive he is looking for his shot.

UPDATE – Chris Paul has not been cleared for tonight’s game yet. He said he will play if he is cleared but that decision may not be made until after lineup lock on Fanduel.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $10,000 — DK: $9,600
Min/Game: 34.6 — Usage Rate: 28.50

Chris Paul

FD: $9,400 — DK: $9,100
Min/Game: 32.2 — Usage Rate: 23.70

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage Rate: 13.6

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)