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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 7th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-08 15:58:37

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota at Chicago – 06:00 PM

Minnesota Chicago
Article Image Vegas Total 198 Article Image Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd +9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 94.3 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 101.65 Team Pace 99.88
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 16 4 29 6 22 Opp. Season 1 24 1 8 26
Opp. Last 7 16 4 29 6 22 Opp. Season 1 24 1 8 26

Minnesota

Minnesota heads on the road as almost double digit underdogs and checks in with the fourth-lowest team total on the night, so this is a spot to mostly avoid. The one issue to watch here is the status of Kevin Martin who could miss this game. If he sits, I’d expect maybe Zach Lavine or Shabazz Muhammad get a few extra minutes, but ideally that would result in Andrew Wiggins getting some extra shots as he’s been very slow out of the gate.

Chicago is not the same defensive team they’ve been in year’s past, so they’re not a team to fear. Andrew Wiggins has been disappointing in terms of fantasy production, and Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince are total nonfactors, so they’re never on my radar. Chicago has struggled against PG and C, which lines up well with Minnesota, as Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns are really the only options I look to use from this team.

Rubio looks fully healthy and while he’s unlikely to score 20 points (unless he’s playing the Lakers) he is a nightly triple-double threat. Derrick Rose has struggled defensively so the matchup is there, the only concern is that it looks like Minnesota isn’t going to push his minutes much above 30-32 per game. Towns started the year off with a bang, but has had a quiet few games. Foul trouble always concerns with me young posts, especially against a veteran like Pau Gasol. However, if he’s able to avoid foul trouble, Gasol is not a good defender, and the Bulls have curiously really struggled on the glass so this is a quality matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

FD: $7,500 — DK:
Min/Game: 29.8 — Usage Rate: 19.8

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $6,400 — DK:
Min/Game: 28.5 — Usage Rate: 23.8

Chicago

Minnesota has shown some improvement defensively early on, but Vegas likes the Bulls in this one as they check in with the fifth-highest team total on the board.

The weak link of Minnesota’s defense so far has been SG as opposing SGs are putting up some solid lines against them. Jimmy Butler continues to emerge as one of the games best at the position and is locked in offensively right now. He has 23 or more real points in four of his five games this year and with James Harden in a difficult matchup, he’s right there with Victor Oladipo as one of my favorite options on the slate.

Minnesota is currently number one against opposing point guards, but I’m not expecting that to last as Ricky Rubio is not known as a lock down defender. Derrick Rose really struggled to start the year, but busted loose with a big game against the Thunder. He’s not a guy I’m likely to trust in cash games, but he’s in play for tournaments.

The Bulls have some talented big men in Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic, but they also have quality backups in Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah. The glut of big men really caps the upside for everyone as no player is likely to top 32 minutes. Mirotic played well to start the year, but has struggled over his last two and has seen his minutes plummet. I’d be most likely to use him on a site where he is still SF eligible. Gasol has played better of late, but I prefer the upside of a guy like Nerlens Noel at a similar price point, and really like the high-end PFs today. Doug McDermott drew the start at SF on Thursday but only played 23 minutes, and was very unproductive. I’d like to see more consistent minutes before I jump on board with him as a punt play.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler

FD: $8,100 — DK:
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage Rate: 21.6

Secondary Plays

Derrick Rose

FD: $7,100 — DK:
Min/Game: 31.7 — Usage Rate: 31.30

Pau Gasol

FD: $7,600 — DK:
Min/Game: 28.8 — Usage Rate: 24.70

Nikola Mirotic

FD: $5,900 — DK:
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage Rate: 22.80

Orlando at Philadelphia – 07:00 PM

Orlando Philadelphia
Article Image Vegas Total 193 Article Image Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd -4 Vegas Sprd +4
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 94.8
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 97.54
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Dewayne Dedmon Proj Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 19 28 13 28 27 Opp. Season 23 8 19 13 4
Opp. Last 7 19 28 13 28 27 Opp. Season 23 8 19 13 4

Orlando

The Magic will continue to be without their big man Nikola Vucevic for at least the next couple of games, as he is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee. Dewayne Dedmon slid into the starting lineup last night, and played 30 minutes at center so he should continue to be a solid punt at center until Vucevic returns.

Philadelphia is not playing at the break neck pace that they were last year, but they are still a defense that can be picked on as they’re allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game. With the 76ers playing a slower pace, this game features a fairly pedestrian total. However, the 76ers have really struggled to defend SG, PF, and C, as they rank 27th or below in fantasy points allowed to each position.

As mentioned Dewayne Dedmon, should play 25 to 30 minutes and is a viable punt at just above minimum price. The primary problem with the Magic is that Scott Skiles “rotations” can be maddening at times and the minutes of guys like Elfrid Payton, Tobias Harris, and Aaron Gordon, have all fluctuated at times this year. One guy whose minutes haven’t fluctuated is Victor Oladipo as he’s played at least 31 MPG in each game this season. He’s the safest option for this Magic team and one of the elite options at SG on the slate.

Evan Fournier was a complete dud yesterday as he shot just 3-11 from the field and saw his minutes drop to 28. Given that performance his ownership level should drop down back to playable levels, and despite his struggles last night, he looks like a guy who is going to continue to play 30+ minutes a night and getting double digit FGA so I wouldn’t overreact to last night’s struggles.

The rotation at the PF is less clear as Tobias Harris was benched against the Rockets, and saw Aaron Gordon play heavy minutes. However, Harris bounced back with 36 minutes last night and nearly double-doubled, while Gordon saw limited action. That’s going to be an ongoing issue due to Scott Skiles and with plenty of PF options I’ll stay away from Gordon. However, Harris is listed as a SF, which is pretty thin and given the 76ers struggles against PF, he makes for a high upside tournament play. Elfrid Payton’s minutes have been very volatile so I’ll stay away there.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 39.3 — Usage Rate: 25.20

Dewayne Dedmon

FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 19.2 (28 MPG w/o Vucevic) — Usage Rate: 12.90

Secondary Plays

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 37.2 — Usage Rate: 19.9

Tobias Harris

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage Rate: 22.5

Philadelphia

The 76ers have one of the lower team totals on the day, but Orlando has not been a great defensive team, and several of the 76ers are very affordable. I don’t view of the 76ers as building blocks but they’re viable options to use to fit in an Anthony Davis or Blake Griffin.

Orlando’s overall defensive numbers aren’t great but they have been solid against every position except for PG, which leads us to TJ McConnell. He was a popular value play last night as he had a big line in his first start, but he put up a disappointing line last night and only played 25 minutes. He’s a pass first PG that will rely on assists, rebounds, and steals, and the fact that he basically split time with Isaiah Canaan last nigth gives me some pause, especially on DK where his price point elevated. However, Nik Stauskas’ price has not jumped on either site, and he’s a value play I’ll continue to look to. He had me worried last night, as he didn’t get as many shots as he did in previous games, but he played 38 minutes and still basically hit value on FD. Orlando allows the 9th most made 3 pointers per game, which sets up well for Stauskas, and given his cheap price point, I think he continues to be a very viable punt option at SG.

The 76ers most steady performers have been their big men, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. Noel is in the midst of a breakout year, and can really stuff a stat sheet. He has double-digit rebounds in four of five games, and this Magic team has struggled on the glass this year and will be without Nikola Vucevic. I’d prefer to just pay up for one of the elite PF options (Griffin or Davis) in cash games, but if you’re going with a balanced lineup he’s a great option and carries 45-50 fantasy upside. Okafor has been very good offensively in his rookie year, but does leave a lot to be desired in terms of providing stats outside of scoring. Jerami Grant should continue to start at SF and should play between 23 to 27 minutes. He doesn’t score much but provides big block upside and has been returning solid value as a punt play.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 31.1 — Usage Rate: 17.0

Nik Stauskas

FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 30.5 — Usage Rate: 22.3

Secondary Plays

TJ McConnell

FD: $4,200 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 27.3 — Usage Rate: 11.0

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 34.6 — Usage Rate: 27.1

Jerami Grant

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage Rate: 16.50

Washington at Atlanta – 07:30 PM

Washington Atlanta
Article Image Vegas Total 204 Article Image Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd +3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 103.82 Team Pace 98.91
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 10 12 26 15 19 Opp. Season 13 22 30 14 7
Opp. Last 7 10 12 26 15 19 Opp. Season 13 22 30 14 7

Washington

The Wizards were surprisingly dismantled by the Boston Celtics last night. I’d expect a much better effort from them tonight due to that, especially with this being a rematch with the team that knocked them out of last year’s playoffs.

The matchup against the Hawks isn’t ideal but Vegas expects this one to stay close, and if that is going to happen then it will be due to the Wizards dynamic guard duo of John Wall and Brad Beal. Wall is on his way to becoming one of the very elite PGs in the league, and becoming basically matchup proof. I’d expect to see him play at least 36 minutes in this one and while I’d prefer to spend at PF, he’s a viable option tonight. Bradley Beal is healthy to start the year, which has been his biggest question mark, and it’s showing as he’s exploded offensively averaging 25 PPG to start the season. With the loss of DeMarre Carroll in the offseason and Thabo Sefolosha’s minutes being managed, I like his matchup against the Hawks wings. With Wall injured for most of the playoff series against the Hawks, Beal exploded as he averaged 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.

The Washington big men are sharing minutes too much for my liking so the only other player on my radar is Otto Porter. Atlanta is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing Sfs, and Porter is getting a ton of run this season averaging almost 33 MPG.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD: $9,500 — DK: $9,000
Min/Game: 34.6 — Usage Rate: 26.10

Brad Beal

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 31.7 — Usage Rate: 22.60

Secondary Plays

Otto Porter

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 32.8 — Usage Rate: 15.20

Atlanta

The Hawks lost their opener, but have once again caught fire as they’ve one six in a row and continue to be one of the best all-around teams in the NBA, despite lacking that one star player.

Washington has picked up the pace this year, which has lead to increased production from Wall and Beal, but also to increased production from the opposing team. The problem is that the Hawks are one of the more frustrating NBA teams for fantasy as they really share the ball, which limits all of their upside.

The Wizards did a great job on Kyle Korver in the playoffs last year and really ran him off the three point line so I’ll avoid him here. This is also the 2nd night of a back to back so it’s a possibility either he gets the night off. Thabo Sefolosha should return tonight so if Korver, Bazemore and Thabo are all active then I’ll avoid the Atlanta wings. If Korver sits then Bazemore is in play as a punt. Washington has defended the center position really well over the past few years so while I don’t hate Al Horford, I’ll probably pass here. The most interesting play for the Hawks in this matchup is Paul Millsap as he draws a solid matchup with Kris Humphries and has been very consistent topping 35 FD points in each of his past six games. My primary issue with Millsap is that the PF position is really loaded up to tonight.

At PG, Jeff Teague is always a roller coaster ride as you never know whether you’ll get the passive version or the ultra aggressive version that can put up 40+ fantasy points. Based on that, he’s typically a GPP only guy for me.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 34.7 — Usage Rate: 23.80

Jeff Teague

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 31.7 — Usage Rate: 25.30

Al Horford

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.1 — Usage Rate: 22.20

New Orleans at Dallas – 08:30 PM

New Orleans Dallas
Article Image Vegas Total 209 Article Image Vegas Total 209
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5
Team Proj. 102 Team Proj. 107
Team Pace 105.1 Team Pace 100.64
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jrue Holiday Eric Gordon Luke Babbitt Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 5 11 20 30 12 Opp. Season 30 25 18 17 23
Opp. Last 7 5 11 20 30 12 Opp. Season 30 25 18 17 23

New Orleans

The big question with New Orleans will be whether Omer Asik suits up. With Asik out again last night, the Pelicans went small and started Anthony Davis at center with Dante Cunningham at PF, and Davis really flourished

UPDATE – Jrue Holiday will rest and Ish Smith is expected to draw the start, and becomes the top PG punt on the day. Omer Asik will also be out once again.

As mentioned, Anthony Davis finally busted loose last night and went absolutely bonkers. The small lineup seems to have jump started his rebounding, and the Mavericks lack athleticism on their interior to match up with him. They allow the most fantasy points to opposing PFs and if Davis starts at center Zaza won’t be able to handle him either. He’s the top option on the day regardless of position.

Outside of Davis, the Pelicans are really tough as Jrue Holiday’s minutes are really being managed and Ish Smith’s minutes have been up and down. Eric Gordon has emerged as the Pelican’s next most reliable fantasy option as he’s playing 35 minutes a night and has scored 20 real points in three games this season. Luke Babbitt is starting at SF and playing almost 30 MPG over his last 3 so he could be a GPP punt, but he’s certainly risky.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,600
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage Rate: 27.70

Ish Smith

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 25.4 — Usage Rate: 24.40

Secondary Plays

Eric Gordon

FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 35.2 — Usage Rate: 19.90

Dallas

The Pelicans are playing at a very fast pace under Alvin Gentry and are just hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing teams as they’re allowing a league-worst (by a wide margin) 116 PPG. The Mavericks are a very frustrating fantasy team as they play a ton of guys but the potential is certainly there tonight.

Basically, every Dallas starter draws an elite matchup so this really boils down to which Mavs starter will consistent usage and minutes. Chandler Parsons minutes are really being managed so I’d avoid him. Wesley Matthews’ minutes have creeped up into the 26 to 28 range, which makes him playable (especially on DK), and while Deron Williams and Dirk Nowitzki lack upside at this point in their careers, but the matchup is great. If Davis draws the start at center, I’ll probably avoid Zaza, as I worry about foul trouble with him guarding Davis. Overall, there is fantasy potential here, but it could be spread around, and a lot of the Mavs’ top options just don’t have very much upside.

An interesting punt option is Dwight Powell. He’s not a big name, but he’s has played at least 23 minutes in three straight games and has been very productive from a fantasy perspective.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Wesley Matthews

FD: $5,400 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 26.5 — Usage Rate: 19.80

Deron Williams

FD: $6,700 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 28.8 — Usage Rate: 22.20

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 26.5 — Usage Rate: 25.00

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 26.5 — Usage Rate: 23.5

Brooklyn at Milwaukee – 08:30 PM

Brooklyn Milwaukee
Article Image Vegas Total 195 Article Image Vegas Total 195
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 95.61 Team Pace 96.73
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jarrett Jack Markel Brown Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Tyler Ennis Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 25 26 14 29 15 Opp. Season 21 21 22 7 11
Opp. Last 7 25 26 14 29 15 Opp. Season 21 21 22 7 11

Brooklyn

Milwaukee is showing some slippage defensively to start the season, but the Nets are not a potent offense and Vegas has them with an uninspiring team total of 94.8 points.

The prime option on the Nets is Brook Lopez, who has the third highest usage rate among centers. Greg Monroe is a talented offensive player, but he’s not a very good defender. Lopez had 18 points and 9 rebounds against the Bucks a few games ago, and seems too cheap on DK. There’s not much else to dig into outside of Lopez. Joe Johnson has really struggled this season and Giannis Antetokounmp is developing into a great defender. Johnson really struggled against Milwaukee earlier this year so I’ll pass.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson drew his first start on Friday night and put up a solid fantasy line at minimum price against the Lakers. However, he’s not a scorer and it did come against the Lakers. He’s very raw offensively so there is definitely bust potential here against the Bucks solid wings, but he’s minimum if you need a GPP punt. Jarrett Jack had a huge day against the weak Lakers PG good defense, and is in play as a low to mid-range play at PG, but probably lacks upside in this matchup. Finally, Thaddeus Young had a solid stat line against the Bucks earlier this season, sees consistent minutes and is still affordable.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

FD: $7,900 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 33.8 — Usage Rate: 26.30

Secondary Plays

Jarrett Jack

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 32.4 — Usage Rate: 22.60

Thaddeus Young

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 29.7 — Usage Rate: 21.10

Milwaukee

The situations to monitor with the Bucks are the status of Michael Carter-Williams, who has missed the last few games, and whether Jabari Parker will play on the 2nd of a back to back. If Williams sits, Tyler Ennis drew the start and it really hurt the fantasy appeal of both him and Jerryd Bayless as neither was overly productive. Parker is still on a minutes limit so isn’t under consideration but if he sits it should open up a few more shots.

The two premier options on the Bucks are Greg Monroe and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Monroe struggles defensively but he’s a talented offensive player, and Brook Lopez is not shut down defender himself. He put up a big stat line of 23 points and 13 rebounds against the Nets earlier this year and the Bucks will continue to run their low post offense through him.

The Nets’ perimeter defense has been abysmal to start the year, although the insertion of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson into the starting lineup should help in that regard. Giannis is playing a ton of minutes at 37 MPG and has taken a huge step forward offensively this year. He’s still rebounding very well and racking up peripheral stats, but he’s now scoring 20+ PPG, which makes him a lethal fantasy option. Khris Middleton has really struggled to shoot the ball this year as he’s just 36% so far this season. However, he’s a much better shooter than that (career 44%) and Jason Kidd continues to play him heavy minutes. The shots are still there and sometime soon his shot will fall and he’ll exceed value so I don’t mind him against the weak Nets defense. There’s too much uncertainty at PG so I’ll pass until MCW gets back into the lineup, or Bayless is back in the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 32.7 — Usage Rate: 23.70

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage Rate: 19.60

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage Rate: 19.90

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)